KickintheKods Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 I love the Melbourne Spring Carnival. In my opinion it is the best time of the year for "value" punting and is made even better when you get the daily odds increases with the Australian bookies ( yes, it is something you guys standing round the pie warmer in Petone need to introduce). This weekend's target is the Caulfield Cup. The favorite has looked very good, but I am very keen on the two who chased him home in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, namely Young Werther and Chapada. If you get a chance have a look at the replay. Both made up many lengths in the last 400 metres to finish less than 1.75 lengths from the winner. Significantly, they both drop down the weight scale on the winner, which is a bonus. I am a fan of both trainers. O'Brien has been upbeat about Young Werther for months and the other bloke has already trained a Melbourne Cup winner, so he knows the routine. At $13 a place, Chapada is VALUE and multi him into Young Werther in the Melbourne Cup and Verry Elleegant in the Cox Plate and who knows. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Like Young Werther but the rain worries me , will wait for the day . Indecisive looks a bit special , and i do like to see good horses win good races . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 11 hours ago, nomates said: Like Young Werther The thing with Young Werther is he has only won the One race. His maiden more than a year ago. He was set for the Victoria Derby for big glory then , and was backed from 10's into 3-1 favourite. Ollie gave him every hope in the run and loomed to win , but paddled late against JohnnyGetAngry. many left a little disappointed including self (crying through pocket and missing big payout) so just don't want to imagine him toughing out a Caulfield Cup win a year later lol........ Shouldn't wish ill luck on horses I spose , so may the best horse win on the day . Does Incentivise go for lead from 20 alley will be interesting? SHE'S IDEAL has a BIG finish on her from the back usually , so I am gunna go with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 12 hours ago, nomates said: Indecisive looks a bit special What race is he in? Or are you not sure? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What race is he in? Or are you not sure? Haha , it was a bit late when i wrote that , had just sat thru the new Bond movie , as i'm sure you realize i meant Incentivise , but maybe i'm not sure , are you ? what race are we talking about again ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, nomates said: Haha , it was a bit late when i wrote that , had just sat thru the new Bond movie , as i'm sure you realize i meant Incentivise , but maybe i'm not sure , are you ? what race are we talking about again ? I can't see Incentivise getting beaten. Maybe the Caulfield track factor might undo him! If the track keeps getting softer I like Montefilia. Currently a Soft 5 with a high probability of more heavy rain forecast later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I can't see Incentivise getting beaten. Maybe the Caulfield track factor might undo him! If the track keeps getting softer I like Montefilia. Currently a Soft 5 with a high probability of more heavy rain forecast later today. His biggest issue is the gate and the work he has to do to get a position , someday is going to make sure he keeps working . Plus never been round Caulfield although good horses overcome those things . I quite like Persan at odds , likes Caulfield , the distance and a wet track no issue so might put a couple of dollars on him for an interest , but will be happy to see the big horse win . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, nomates said: His biggest issue is the gate and the work he has to do to get a position , someday is going to make sure he keeps working Yeah drawn at 20 and you have a few corners to get round at Caulfield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Yeahh but you have 3 straights compared to the usual 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 If you go back into his form , when he started winning , in his first 3 wins he came from beyond midfield to win , so he isn't as one dimensional as he has appeared since racing in the city in Queensland and now down in Melbourne . They may actual try to take a sit , in may depend on whether he has got into a more forward and free running mentality that his more recent runs have been . May come down to what he wants to do . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Tough race.I think Incentivise will press on. Going for some value-Port Guillaume,Shes Ideal,The Chosen One. Be pissed if Young Werther wins after EJ nutted it at Randwick when I thought it was home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I do have a niggling feeling about Explosive Jack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Incentive for Moody to land first career major Brett Prebble salutes after riding Incentivise to victory in the Turnbull Stakes. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images By Trenton Akers05:22pm • 15 October 2021 Comments Peter Moody always knew what he was going to get from the great Black Caviar during her glittering career but even he admits he is going into the unknown with Incentivise as he attempts to land his first racing major in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. Emerging from the racing wilderness, Moody is leaning on fellow Queenslander Steve Tregea as they team up with the staying marvel who has taken racing by storm. Having spent four years on the sidelines after walking away from racing due to a draining legal battle against cobalt charges, Incentivise has led Moody back into the spotlight and has delivered him his best chance at landing one of racing’s “big four” – the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Golden Slipper. While he has won races in front of the Queen at Royal Ascot with Black Caviar, a “big four” winner is all that is lacking on the former Charleville local’s glittering resume. Taking the shortest-priced favourite in 50 years into the Caulfield Cup could be expected to weigh heavily on most but Moody’s laid-back approach has him treating Saturday’s $5m contest just like any other. “It is no different to any other big race really, we are prepping him the same, as we do all our horses,” Moody told News Corp. “There just happens to be a bigger cheque at the end of the day if he gets the job done. “It doesn’t matter to me really, whether it is one of these (big four) races or not.” IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO JOIN SUPERCOACH RACING. SIGN UP TO BE IN THE RUNNING FOR WEEKLY PRIZES UP TO $1000 Incentivise will be out to give Peter Moody his first triumph in a major. Picture: Getty Images Having made the meteoric rise from a Sunshine Coast maiden worth $12,000 to the winner to a Caulfield Cup favourite in the space of eight starts, the Incentivise story has captured the attention of many. Not one to get too caught up in the moment however, Moody said he has only dealt with what is in front of him since receiving the horse from Tregea in July after high-flying owners Brae Sokolski and Ozzie Kheir purchased a 50 per cent share in him during the Brisbane winter carnival. “There’s no doubt he’s been on that rise but I don’t know that much about his past and if he has always shown this potential or not,” Moody said. “When he won the Tatts Cup (at Eagle Farm) I think it showed to everyone then that he was a serious Caulfield Cup horse.” Having won both the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and Turnbull Stakes (2000m) since arriving in Victoria, Incentivise is gunning to become the first horse since Northerly in 2002 to also go on and win the Caulfield Cup in the same year. His record shows four wins from four starts on soft ground but Moody concedes it is a mystery how he handles the rain-affected ground of Caulfield on Saturday when he jumps from barrier 20. “No idea, a bit like everyone else really,” he said. “He is four from four on soft ground but not at this level, he was probably just better than them then.” Peter Moody speaking with the Queen at Royal Ascot. As a proud Queenslander, Moody famously had Doomben packed to the rafters in 2011 when he brought his star mare Black Caviar to the Sunshine State for the BTC Cup, now it’s a Darling Downs product that could deliver him the biggest moment of his career since returning to training. “At the end of day we want to see horses do their best, regardless of where they are from and he looks like a bloody good horse off the back of his last couple of wins,” Moody said. “It would be great as an old Queenslander to win with a Toowoomba, Darling Downs horse.” While the bright lights of Caulfield couldn’t be further away from the sugar city of Mackay in North Queensland, they are linked through the incredible story of Incentivise. On his prolonged break from racing two years ago, Moody watched on trackside as Steve Tregea’s Bergerac put in a huge effort to win the 2000m feature while carrying the proverbial grandstand. Little did he know two years down the track he would be training Bergerac’s younger half-brother Incentivise, the horse that took the racing world by storm in less than six months. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 The Chosen One for me, really liked how he has improved with each run this campaign. The race of the day got to be The Everest slowly but surely turning into a must watch race, Masked Crusader for me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 No real interest in the Everest. But also am with The Chosen One in what is the crappiest CC I can remember. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 hours ago, curious said: in what is the crappiest CC I can remember Alzheimer's normally stuffs up your short term memory first. However I think it is a good field - not the best but certainly not the worst in my memory (I did some checking online to refresh my memory!). Of course it doesn't compare to an Auckland Cup field. If you take Incentivise out and he is by no means a certainty in that field given the size of the field and his draw. In my opinion he has to pitch quickly forward to get a position early or keep rolling forward the whole race which will put him wide for most of the journey. By race 9 they may well be riding off the fence. So take him out of the punting picture you would have to say it is a very very even field with a narrow range of weights 50kg - 55.5kg. Total stakes earnings of those starting (excluding emergencies) AUD$20m (what % of NZ's total annual stakes is that?) - not bad for middle distance/stayers. Homesman - An Australian Cup, Feehan Stakes, Underwood Stakes winner. Explosive Jack - A South Australian Derby winner and Australian Derby winner. The Chosen One - A Herbert Power winner. Ocean Billy - Auckland Cup winner (yeah probably not the best form but....), Waikato Cup, Whangarei Cup (yeah I'm clutching here....) Selino - Sydney Cup winner. Persan - Bart Cummings win, 5th Melbourne Cup Chapada - Herbert Power win, 3rd Victorian Derby and Rosehill Guineas Delphi - Herbert Power win, Irish St Leger win. Master of Wine - 3rd Bart Cummings, 3rd Sellwood Stakes. Montefilia - Metropolitan win, 2nd Kingston Town, 3rd Chelmsford, 3rd Rosehill Guineas (won by Mo'unga), 3rd Kennedy Oaks, Spring Champion Stakes win, Darley Flight Stakes win. Port Guillaume - A French horse that hasn't done that much but has raced well against some that have good form in Europe. She's Ideel - Kingston Town Stakes win, 3rd Winx Stakes, 2nd Tancred Stakes. Young Werther - 2nd Turnbull Stakes, 2nd Australian Derby, 3rd Tulloch Stakes, 3rd Victoria Derby. Nonconformist - 2nd Might and Power, MRC Foundation Cup win, Coongy Cup win, Alister Clark Stakes win, Duais - Coongy Cup win, Queensland Oaks win, Adrian Knox Stakes win. Charm's Star - By Per Incanto out of a Zed mare with no form. Then there's Incentivise - 8 wins in a row since winning his maiden 11 April 2021 - 6 months ago. Tattersall's Cup win, Makybe Diva Stakes win, Turnbull Stakes win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 We should all be rooting for Ocean Billy - Bill Pomare's horse and Auckland Cup winner. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 How about the race of the day , the G1 from Hastings, surely PDF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Huey said: How about the race of the day , the G1 from Hastings, surely PDF? What's PDF? Do you mean Prise De Fer? Of the Te Akau runners I prefer Savvy Yong Blonk. Average rating for the race 90. 16 going round......hard race to pick the winner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 10:06 AM, Chief Stipe said: I can't see Incentivise getting beaten. Maybe the Caulfield track factor might undo him! If the track keeps getting softer I like Montefilia. Currently a Soft 5 with a high probability of more heavy rain forecast later today. You could be right with that Chief. I've taken the 2 Sydney mares in Scooby's comp as they will be loving the rain and the distance of the Caulfield Cup. So guess if you like that favourite still, from the wide alley, I am gunna box the quinella and tri then . Incentivise, Montefilia and She's Ideel . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Just now, Gammalite said: You could be right with that Chief. I've taken the 2 Sydney mares in Scooby's comp as they will be loving the rain and the distance of the Caulfield Cup. So guess if you like that favourite still, from the wide alley, I am gunna box the quinella and tri then . Incentivise, Montefilia and She's Ideel . Throw in Explosive Jack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gospel of Judas Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 The Chosen One for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: At last a decent ride from Danielle Johnson. Disgraceful field , Harlech couldn't win any class of city racing in Melbourne , won a Benalla cup , runs 2nd in one of our prestige G1's , FO , jesus how bad is it getting . good luck to the winners connections tho , i'd take it . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Caulfield upgraded to a Soft 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doomed Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, nomates said: Disgraceful field , Harlech couldn't win any class of city racing in Melbourne , won a Benalla cup , runs 2nd in one of our prestige G1's , FO , jesus how bad is it getting . good luck to the winners connections tho , i'd take it . I thought the same when Harlech hit the front. Even Two Illicit couldn't keep up in Qld and wins easily here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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