the galah Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) Don't the totes just follow the fixed odds changes. In that last race we had Kahress drop from $6 to the crazy price of $1.80. Now i know it nearly won,but who in their right mind would have backed it to bring it into those odds.On the tote it dropped to $2.40.just as crazy,but yet again the tote just follows the final field moves. earlier in the night i know someone who put $20 on classy dancer at $16. Well i then watched it drop to $5 before tote close. On the tote it dropped from $12 with about 20 minutes to go to $5. It actually dropped from $9 to $5 in the last minute. Now i have no idea who these people are that follow these type of bets,but they are backing horses paying under 1/3 of what they were 20 minutes before tote close.Thats not very bright. Now i have just backed emmas boy in the last race. I put $20 on it at $16ff. Now 5 minutes latter it is paying $11 on the ff. I assume the final field followers will see its price drop and i guess it might end even less.I know it shows on the tab website its highest price was $13,but it was really$16 5 minutes ago. All it takes is a $20 bet,and thats enough for these people on televison to say there been a flood of money.I Edited July 1, 2022 by the galah 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Dosnt the tote just find its own level? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, mikeynz said: Dosnt the tote just find its own level? No,the totes just follow the final odd odds. So many punters don't seem to think for themselves anymore. Wall to wall racing has dumbed down the casual followers. Thats why the whale influences the dividends so much. 34 minutes ago, the galah said: Now i have just backed emmas boy in the last race. I put $20 on it at $16ff. Now 5 minutes latter it is paying $11 on the ff. I assume the final field followers will see its price drop and i guess it might end even less.I know it shows on the tab website its highest price was $13,but it was really$16 5 minutes ago. All it takes is a $20 bet,and thats enough for these people on televison to say there been a flood of money.I Well i advised that one 30 minutes before the race just to prove the point. As i said,i put my $20 on Emmas boy at $16 30 minutes before the race. That $20,started the final fields dropping,which just snowballed as it always does,with emmas boy eventually closing at $6. As a result of the final field dropping,the tote price dropped. In the end its winning dividend on the tote was only $6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kane21 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Google South Australian Bookmaker Curly Seal and read about manipulating the tote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 10 hours ago, the galah said: No,the totes just follow the final odd odds. My theory is the TAB bookies or the computer sysyems spreads the risk by off loading on the tote. It happens towards start time and often the tote prices don't adjust until post race time. As for a $20 bet affecting prices as dramatically as you suggest it would only happen if liquidity was very low I.e. very small pools. There is no way that you can connect one small bet with price movements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: My theory is the TAB bookies or the computer sysyems spreads the risk by off loading on the tote. It happens towards start time and often the tote prices don't adjust until post race time. As for a $20 bet affecting prices as dramatically as you suggest it would only happen if liquidity was very low I.e. very small pools. There is no way that you can connect one small bet with price movements. Well i am saying it does, Why else was i able to predict that my $20 bet 30 minutes prior to the race start time, would be the start of emmas boys price dropping from $16 that i got, to start at $6. I posted on here it was going to happen and it did. Do you think i am a clairvoyant instead? On another thread yesterday i gave the example of a horse i put $20 on at invercargill,allaboutthemoment,with 1 minute to go at $15,and that $20 bet saw its odds drop to $8ff.It still paid $13 on the tote because people wouldn't have had the chance to react to that price drop as it was so late.That is why i backed it late. I only did the emmas boy bet 30 minutes before to prove to those who read bit of a yarn that what i say is true. I'm just pointing out a significant cause of these price fluctuations.Its what i call the snowball effect. Edited July 1, 2022 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, the galah said: Well i am saying it does, Why else was i able to predict that my $20 bet 30 minutes prior to the race start time, would be the start of emmas boys price dropping from $16 that i got, to start at $6. I posted on here it was going to happen and it did. Do you think i am a clairvoyant instead? On another thread yesterday i gave the example of a horse i put $20 on at invercargill,allaboutthemoment,with 1 minute to go at $15,and that $20 bet saw its odds drop to $8ff.It still paid $13 on the tote because people wouldn't have had the chance to react to that price drop as it was so late.That is why i backed it late. I only did the emmas boy bet 30 minutes before to prove to those who read bit of a yarn that what i say is true. Assuming that you are talking about the odds available to everyone and not restricted punter odds. The only way your $20 on its own could have that effect on odds was if the pools were very small or the odds were "market enticement". I'm not suggesting you are clairvoyant but you are assuming that you are the only person participating in the market (which you aren't) and that no one else has the same strategy as you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Assuming that you are talking about the odds available to everyone and not restricted punter odds. The only way your $20 on its own could have that effect on odds was if the pools were very small or the odds were "market enticement". I'm not suggesting you are clairvoyant but you are assuming that you are the only person participating in the market (which you aren't) and that no one else has the same strategy as you. When i put $20 on a horse it will immediately drop the price. That is a fact.It happens within seconds,not minutes. Not every now and again, it happens every time. Thats what i call a pattern. The tab don't deny it. They do so because they now deem that horse as a risk to them and want to reduce money being invested on it. However the reality is,which the tab seemingly fail to recognise,is because of the price dropping the horse becomes a win mover. Win movers attract further punter support because those punters who follow the fixed odds win movers think they are following the money trail. Many tote punters follow the win movers,which results in the tote price dropping. Thats how it works. The difference between you spending $20 on a fixed odds bet and my doing so,is i can safely say i would pick more winners than you. i've explained this enough now,so will leave it up to people to believe it or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: but you are assuming that you are the only person participating in the market (which you aren't) and that no one else has the same strategy as you Good Grief . If $20 could shift a market 'everytime' hahaha there would be plenty of market manipulating going on. If someone puts a bet on and the price drops a dollar , there's a mad rush ? hahahah to get on that horse. Guess some one that would want to have $50 on their 'Real' selection, are best advised to do 2 dummy $20's on a couple of double figure other runners in the race to start the stampede on them then ? hahaha someone must of had $100 on Kharess last night and started a migration of money lol.. good for us MM supporters anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, the galah said: When i put $20 on a horse it will immediately drop the price. That is a fact.It happens within seconds,not minutes. Not every now and again, it happens every time. Thats what i call a pattern. The tab don't deny it. You've asked the TAB? What you are implying is the TAB sees YOUR $20 bet as a market indicator of risk. Really? You must be restricted more than @Brodie. 1 hour ago, the galah said: The difference between you spending $20 on a fixed odds bet and my doing so,is i can safely say i would pick more winners than you. But no one else in the market knows if the $20 is mine or yours except perhaps the TAB bookies and or the system odds setter. That said aren't most winning punters looking for value rather than following the leader? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 20 hours ago, mikeynz said: Dosnt the tote just find its own level? yes it responds to the bets placed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gammalite said: Good Grief . If $20 could shift a market 'everytime' hahaha there would be plenty of market manipulating going on. If someone puts a bet on and the price drops a dollar , there's a mad rush ? hahahah to get on that horse. Guess some one that would want to have $50 on their 'Real' selection, are best advised to do 2 dummy $20's on a couple of double figure other runners in the race to start the stampede on them then ? hahaha someone must of had $100 on Kharess last night and started a migration of money lol.. good for us MM supporters anyway. Like the chief, you seem to have a preconceived idea of how it works. What you have said has no connection with what i have said. 44 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You've asked the TAB? What you are implying is the TAB sees YOUR $20 bet as a market indicator of risk. Really? You must be restricted more than @Brodie. But no one else in the market knows if the $20 is mine or yours except perhaps the TAB bookies and or the system odds setter. That said aren't most winning punters looking for value rather than following the leader? In this post you say the tab bookies/odds setters know who it is putting the bets on (because people have things they call TAB accounts),yet somehow you still deny that has any relevance when it comes to the prices they set. Besides it not them reducing the odds straight away,its done by a computer programme. Have you heard of those? Have you ever had a look at one of the promotional videos on betfair. Its about a fella who has set up a computer programme which places bets for him based on the algorithms around win movers. He has been very successful.So believe it or not,some punters do follow the win movers. Ask yourself this. Why do the TAB restrict the amounts certain punters can win. Using your logic you must think they just treat those punters money the same as yours.And using your logic they don't have any computer programmes in place to to limit the amounts because thats not what they do.Its all a myth. Like i said ,sometimes whatever someone will say won't change someones opinion,and thats fair enough,,each to their own. Edited July 2, 2022 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, the galah said: Like the chief, you seem to have a preconceived idea of how it works. What you have said has no connection with what i have said. Yes it does ! you wrote about $20 effecting the price the TAB is offering as the bets are placed. EXACTLY what I wrote about. I wrote to Chief as he is CORRECT . YOU are Not the only one placing bets . How you think you manipulate the tote price is quite funny. I live on the punt . I know how it works. I think you and Davis can select quite well actually. Brodie ?? nah who puts big bets a place (because not confident of picking winners for starters ) at $1000 on ones paying $2 a place or more ? no-one is the answer. AND if you did the MANY unplaced runs would make you that bitter with the sport, that you'd go mad ?? wait a minute , !!!!!!!!! he is bitter with .................................. everyone ? lol.................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Not sure how the NZ Fixed Odds systems works nowadays! Doesn’t seem to be a pattern to when they alter fixed odds at all! A fixed odd can be say $10 from the time the odds are put up until not long before the race starts! Seems very weird that if the horse is worth a go the punters have not had a go well before near race time????? What I do know is last night at Addington the Presenters were quoting the large bets that were on, that was the reason for slashing the fixed odds! Bets of $500 @ $1.75 lol lol lo lol lol unbelievable!! Shit $500, WOW, I wouldnt be wasting my time if that is how some punters offload! How on earth is $500 a big bet?????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Gammalite said: Yes it does ! you wrote about $20 effecting the price the TAB is offering as the bets are placed. EXACTLY what I wrote about. I wrote to Chief as he is CORRECT . YOU are Not the only one placing bets . How you think you manipulate the tote price is quite funny. I live on the punt . I know how it works. I think you and Davis can select quite well actually. Brodie ?? nah who puts big bets a place (because not confident of picking winners for starters ) at $1000 on ones paying $2 a place or more ? no-one is the answer. AND if you did the MANY unplaced runs would make you that bitter with the sport, that you'd go mad ?? wait a minute , !!!!!!!!! he is bitter with .................................. everyone ? lol.................. Gamma, that is right I am not confident of backing winners and I can not make money on harness! So if you have some clout can you have a word to the Bookies and let me on for what I want? Edited July 2, 2022 by Brodie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brodie said: How on earth is $500 a big bet?????? It is to most mate. You should try and face that reality ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Gammalite said: It is to most mate. You should try and face that reality ??? Seriously in this day and age $500 is hardly a large bet! Yes it is more than what most wager but it is hardly a significant amount! The NZ TAB need to be encouraging wagering as it is he punters that are going to keep harness racing going in NZ! The punters that wager a few dollars each week are going to move on and there are not many new ones coming through! Let the punters on for what is reasonable as they put the odds up, so take them! Edited July 2, 2022 by Brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brodie said: Gamma, that is right you can not make money on harness! I thought you said you could with all these massive place bets ? I only back horses like Majestic Man that I know a good and give you a run for your money EVERYtime. Start backing maidens and your quote here is DEAD TRUE. (I just back Victorian Saturday gallops usually) But just now backed ARAPAHO to win Caloundra Cup !! What a great name . A former NZ CUP winnner for Jack. Alas it ran 2nd .😪 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Gammalite said: I thought you said you could with all these massive place bets ? I only back horses like Majestic Man that I know a good and give you a run for your money EVERYtime. Start backing maidens and your quote here is DEAD TRUE. (I just back Victorian Saturday gallops usually) But just now backed ARAPAHO to win Caloundra Cup !! What a great name . A former NZ CUP winnner for Jack. Alas it ran 2nd .😪 Lol It was tongue in cheek! I was wanting you to appeal to the NZ TAB for me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brodie said: Lol It was tongue in cheek! I was wanting you to appeal to the NZ TAB for me? I do wish you could get the bets on you wish . (I really do) but have No Tab influence. best of luck to you and any punter , that is trying to get a Win. I just say there is No way you could have those bets $500 or more you say a small , and Still Enjoy the Sport. Very hard for the average punter to recover from a $500 miss Brodster ?? I have a strategy where I use $500 total per week , and irt works fine. (although Blasted 'Zac De Boss' just ran 4th and let me down lol.... but won his last 2 for me ok. Just better value and running LUCK in those gallops than NZ trots . quite happy to back ALLstars though !!!!!!!!!! they make their own luck lol....... good QLD girl lol..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Brodie said: How on earth is $500 a big bet?????? back in your day you could get 250,000 aniseed balls for $500 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Gammalite said: It is to most mate. You should try and face that reality ??? clearly operates at a different level to me, you and joe average Edited July 2, 2022 by Rangatira Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rangatira said: clearly operates at a different level to me, you and joe average I am sure I do Ranga. My philosophy to get ahead has always been, you have to speculate to accumulate! Conservatism generally does not get you ahead! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gammalite said: I do wish you could get the bets on you wish . (I really do) but have No Tab influence. best of luck to you and any punter , that is trying to get a Win. I just say there is No way you could have those bets $500 or more you say a small , and Still Enjoy the Sport. Very hard for the average punter to recover from a $500 miss Brodster ?? I have a strategy where I use $500 total per week , and irt works fine. (although Blasted 'Zac De Boss' just ran 4th and let me down lol.... but won his last 2 for me ok. Just better value and running LUCK in those gallops than NZ trots . quite happy to back ALLstars though !!!!!!!!!! they make their own luck lol....... good QLD girl lol..... With respect Gamma, everyone is at different levels . Hard to recover from a $500 loss? You get back on the horse as they say. It is not hard to make money on harness racing, the hardest thing is getting on! I do not need to do it for financial reasons, It is the challenge!, If the NZ TAB allowed me on for more then maybe I would lose the interest of the challenge lol. Some good racing tomorrow at Addington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Brodie said: Hard to recover from a $500 loss? You get back on the horse as they say. It is not hard to make money on harness racing, the hardest thing is getting on! Not many bet that amount in one go Brodster. You lose the enjoyment for the sport. It bacomes ALL about the money only , and you start cursing bad luck/ results and drivers etc.... I watch most races WITHOUT investment because I enjoy the racing. The achievements in the sport ,etc. Notice you didn't post on the Harness greats quiz, probably because you don't respect the achievements, just the stupid money. Allstars deserve more respect than what they get from disgruntled punters. Near best in World . you should be impressed . instead it's "oh just another race I couldn't Win a dollar on" . that's sad mate...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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