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I don't know about that? . I would say that any PREDICTION for anything , is just an OPINION. until it happened as that it is now in 'past tense'. so therefore becomes a FACT. The Weather Office should have data to accurately predict the weather most days but wow. the inaccuracies are still there in bulk. People complain every day. As they do in horse racing every day too. Not getting the results they predicted. Racing is full of inaccurate Predictions of finishing order, how a race will be run, any number of things really. All just opinion. your Rain example shows the Inaccuracy of A.I in all it's glory. It only has to rain in say 8 of a total of 10 hours of predictions (based on the recorded past data you mentioned) and it's PREDICTION is Immeadiately 10% incorrect. therefore it was just an OPINION of what might happen .and just like any horse race. an inaccurate opinion on any unknown number of occasions. -
Factors you may have overlooked or not given sufficient weighting to. Tweaking your evolving algorithm or system or whatever it is you use. I don't use one because I rarely bet these days, but still an interesting topic -
By Chief Stipe · Posted
Damn so @Huey 's posts could still be counted!! -
By Chief Stipe · Posted
Yes and no - the intial algorithms to start AI - machine learning are designed by humans. However the computational power is being used by machines to rewrite those algorithms. No - if AI says there is a 90% chance that it will rain within an hour that isn't opinion it is a prediction based on past observations and recorded data i.e. facts. The worst thing about AI at the moment is that it is much of what is produced doesn't come with its own measure of accuracy and variance. So -
I agree with that. Retrospectively giving undue weight to a factor that doesn't deserve it is a recipe for disaster. That's where a lot of punter and even trainer believed myths are founded and perpetuated but fraught.
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