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Bit Of A Yarn

Chief Stipe

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Everything posted by Chief Stipe

  1. Chief Stipe
    Well my observation is that often the Jockey's will cruise the first part of the straight and then panic just before the bend looking for a possie. Of course that occurs more often with 18 in the field. 13 it won't be so bad.
  2. Chief Stipe
    Another example of your ability to make things up and or poor level of literacy. When are you going to explain your luck punting stratagem? I guess you will be taking Easy Bets?
  3. Chief Stipe
    Surprisingly similar to your persona. Will you roll dice?
  4. Chief Stipe
    I won't until you post how you measure 'luck'!
  5. Chief Stipe
    You may consider yourself "lucky" if you win but the probabilities of drawing a particular number is measurable. You obviously have a literacy and comprehension problem. I posted the probabilities of the FIRST marble drawn out.
  6. Chief Stipe
    I've said no such thing. I haven't drawn a distinction between the two.
  7. Chief Stipe
    FFS you have taken a dictionary definition but haven't shown how you incorporate luck into your selection strategy.
  8. Chief Stipe
    I'm still waiting to read your definition of luck. No. That is measurable probability just like Lotto. The chance of getting Barrier 1 as the first marble drawn was 1 in 13 in the Derby. Just like it is 1 in 40 in Lotto. If a horse gets caught 3 wide without cover is that bad riding or bad luck? Or was it the likely outcome of a particular draw relative to the speed map for the race?
  9. Chief Stipe
    But you haven't defined what YOU determine is a variable you call 'luck'. What is it? How do you measure it? How does it influence your selections?
  10. Chief Stipe
    Well it isn't based on Lotto Ball probability and obviously doesn't consider Holey Pasta's Luck Theorem.
  11. Chief Stipe
    Sorry which messenger? Can't have been you as you don't have any message.
  12. Chief Stipe
    @holy ravioli Market based on Luck Horse Win Fixed Odds Tutukaka $1.85 White Noise $1.85 Marchand $1.85 Soldier Boy $1.85 Nest Egg $1.85 Arjay's Flight $1.85 Pinarello $1.85 Yes We Khan $1.85 Regal Lion $1.85 Ess Vee Are $1.85 Privileged Son $1.85 Asterix $1.85 La Crique $1.85
  13. Chief Stipe
    TAB NZ Fixed Odds for the NZ Derby. Horse Win Fixed Odds Tutukaka $13.00 White Noise $9.00 Marchand $12.00 Soldier Boy $51.00 Nest Egg $41.00 Arjay's Flight $15.00 Pinarello $3.80 Yes We Khan $41.00 Regal Lion $41.00 Ess Vee Are $41.00 Privileged Son $41.00 Asterix $41.00 La Crique $1.85 Market 131%
  14. Chief Stipe
    It isn't measurable. Therefore it is worthless as a variable in determining chance. What's the point in discussing anything with an idiot who thinks "luck" is a measurable variable that can be used to assess a horses chance.
  15. Chief Stipe
    That is an observation based on her previous races her last one particularly. The 1 draw narrows your options in my opinion. What if the inside of the track is off by Race 9? My point is that drawing 1 is not the best draw tactically. Anyway we are all still waiting for a description of how you incorporate "luck" as a variable into pre-race assessment.
  16. Chief Stipe
    That's not correct however again you miss the point. I said a draw between 2 and 8 would have been better for La Crique.
  17. Chief Stipe
    So which one is perfect? Can you explain why the %'s add to more than 100?
  18. Chief Stipe
    Nope. I cringed everytime I saw a capacity Derby field race to that bend. Given the calibre of our Jockey's at the moment even 13 is too many.
  19. Chief Stipe
    Look forward to seeing your "lucky" speed map for the Derby @holy ravioli.
  20. Chief Stipe
    That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. Plus the field isn't a capacity field so hopefully there won't be that mad dash and dodgems at the first bend.
  21. Chief Stipe
    How can 1 be perfect? Draw 1 at the 2400m at Ellerslie is a tricky draw - that is my observation over years of watching 2400m races at Ellerslie. Just as 11 is tricky over 2200m.
  22. Chief Stipe
    It is just a saying. You haven't explained how you measure your "luck variable" before a race in assessing a horses chance. I haven't mentioned any factors or variables. You've mentioned one - "luck" when it isn't a variable. That's opinion and or (in your case) excuses for why a horse didn't perform up to expectations. LUCK isn't a measurable variable either before or after. Many horses get knocked over or bumped and still win. Was their "luck" a different type of "luck" to those that didn't win?
  23. Chief Stipe
    I disagree. She'll have to be used early to keep her position in the mad dash to the first bend. She has that tactical speed. But then she will either be stuck in front or could be shuffled back. A "perfect draw" would have been between 2 and 8.
  24. Chief Stipe
    It is clearly evident that they have a Stipendiary Steward sitting behind TV screens watching videos of the race and then recommending charges based on technical interpretation of rules. A bit of a revenue gathering exercise if you ask me. Bit like issuing traffic tickets. In this case Noel McCutcheon wouldn't have seen the Crawford misdemeanour and would have been alerted by the studio video Stipe.
  25. Chief Stipe
    La Crique has drawn 1. Not an ideal draw in this field.
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