the galah

Don't know what archie butterfly would comment. My thoughts are Sams Town the type of horse,who gives 100% every time,has great manners and is in career best form. Hes trained by what i consider are currently nz's best trainers,and has been beautifully driven by gavin smith,blair orange and tim williams. In recent weeks i have thought he won't be able to reproduce such a tough effort next week as I think its unrealistic to expect any horse to keep winning in such a grade,unless you are a self assured or copy that type horse. But sams town has done it. Sams town reminds me of one of my favorite all time horses in jerry garcia,i love watching those type of horses. Reality is there are a lot of horses racing down in the grades who give it every thing they have got week after week for their connections,but most go unrewarded results wise. Its part of racing,but its why connections can grow attached to their horses no matter what the level they achieve.

Because its information about the consequences of serious breaches of hrnz rules and people have an interest in that. Also, I would have thought by giving it coverage it may discourage others from committing such serious offences. One is left to wonder,given some of the background details of this case, does that explain why the lack of coverage. Who knows,but its an obvious thing to consider. Then you are left wondering about what else?

Hasn't this horse put in some wonderful runs. 5 wins in the last 6 starts against good horses. An example of a very tough horse who gives his all each time he runs. Not a horse i have backed myself,but one who i enjoy seeing run. No matter what he does in the future you have to admire horses like him.

I see M Anderson got 5 years 3 months a couple of weeks back. Of note,was the lack of media coverage of such a lengthy disqualification. I would have thought it might have got a mention in hrnz news,or the likes of harnesslink might have given it a mention. Makes you wonder what those who conrtol the content of such sites consider newsworthy. They must think Out of sight,out of mind.

As i have said before. Aren't junior drivers educated and given guidance on how to deal with all aspects of social media. Don't Forbury's comments sometimes reflect more on his state of mind at the time he posts than the content of his posts? Fair enough for people to comment when they think someone has made unreasonable comments,,but having said that any reasonable person should be able to filter out what is fair comment,and what isn't. So when you comment about 'a faceless few that frequent these sites" is it not just a way of saying just ignore certain aspects of the real world that may upset your feelings. Maybe that strategy is effective,maybe its not.

Gammalites reference to driver statistics is a very good point forbury. And if we look at Ben Hopes,then we see he has what most would consider very good overall stats. The stats do to confirm what i have said before, that he has a higher strike rate on trotters than he does on the pacers. He tends to win on the trotters at a greater rate than he does the pacers.Thats why i think he should be considered in the top handful of drivers in nz for trotters. When it comes to the pacers he can be a bit frustrating sometimes from a punters perspective. But not everyone is a blair orange every time. I wonder sometimes how drivers would rate the realistic reactions of punters sometimes.But that doesn't happen. Probably a good thing for the punters. And i think sometimes drivers can be are their own harshest critics. Another day today. More winners to be found and more drives to watch.

This thread has been a bit hard to follow from the start. A bit hard to work out who the chief was having a dig at,but i'm guessing it wasn't intended to be ben hope ,he just chose to mention him when making a point about the condition of a track,for some reason. We all know from some of forbs previous posts that hes not always the cheerleader of the ben hope driving fan club,nor mark purdon as gammalite has mentioned. In this case its hard to see why he would criticise mr hope looking around,as it appeared pretty obvious he didn't want to give his horse any harder run than necessary. But each to there own. The thread shows that when anyone comments on social media about someone,we do so about real people.Personally its good to read mrs hope reply and perspective just to remind us of that. it would have given forbs something to think about.As gammalite has said,hes only talking about mr hopes driving from a punters view.Forbury has said only very positive things about mr hopes character in the past. But even if he hadn't like anyone,its only his opinion. I think its just part of the banter that is associated with professional sports.People tend to express those opinions more on social media than they would in person,sometimes without a filter.Its the world we live in. I think when it comes to people commenting, opinions on whether what they say is acceptable or not,is formed based on their own life experiences. Some people become more thick skinned than others. I know its nothing to do with racing,but saturday night tv never has anything decent on.

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those small fields over a mile at auckland tonight have been a race to the first bend,then go as slow as possible,which is really slow,and then just sprint up the straight again. You can see why the turnovers are so small. That race just run was a joke. The only driver who moved up on the walking pace was the driver who settled 50m last. He made his move 400m later while the drivers 3,4 and 5 back the fence showed no intention of trying. Of note in that race was the telfer runner forever me.Compare its form at nz cup time in the group races to now,and its lost not 1 leg but 2. I see their supposed number 1 stable driver ,j stormont has had only 1 win in 34 drives so far this year,

Lunatic fringe,thats a new one,i'll add that to your list..

thanks for that. I understand the points are the same for every standard bet,whether they be domestic or imported. They differ slightly if they are exotic bets on domestic or imported.. Your correct in that the fixed odds has lower points,but in my case i didn't bet on fixed odds at the time because i wanted to meet the threshold,which i did going on what they told me it was.. As you say,the level of rebates paid depend on which tier threshold you are in,and what type of bet type.You may for example get one and a half % more for bets in exotic pools like trifectas than you would an each way bet on the tote. Perhaps the best way for the TAB to be held accountable on whether they really are encouraging or discouraging so called elite customer spend on harness racing,would be for harness racing to ask for a breakdown in the figures. In other words what is the total spend of elite customers specifically on harness racing. And what % of $ paid out in rebates is a result of spend on harness racing. Then compare those figures to previous years. My opinion is harness racing is not being looked after by the TAB. The TAB or any future partner needs to be held accountable by those that run Harness racing.

And in australia that they had a 12% increase in its excess mortality rate last year over the previous year. Of the 20,000 excess deaths they put 13,000 down to having a covid connection,but that still left a 7,000 increase. They had a 17% increase in heart attack deaths to the normal average year.

When i talk about rebates,ir refers to money spent on someones TAB account only.

I had thought they pay the rebates on % of tote turnover.You need to be turning over large amounts to get much of a rebate. And i can't see the whale spending much on the tote.Every horse he tips pays so far under the odds that he won't be making much money if he is betting on the tote. As i have said before,nearly every major ff odds mover has the same thing happen to it on the tote. So a horse that closes under the odds on the ff market because the whale tipped it,will be doing the same on the tote. Maybe he does get a rebate if he loses on the ff odds. I'm not sure how it works if that were the case. The tab don't always stick to what they say as far as rewarding punters with rebates. I enquired a couple of years ago what the turnover threshold was. I did that turnover within 3 months during covid when there was no nz harness racing,betting on an australian states harness racing.They never rewarded me with rebates . When i inquired they told me the criteria had changed..So i stopped spending the $30,000 a month.I felt they mislead me.I don't spend anything on it now. I do think some of those that are lucky enough to get rebates, are well looked after by the tab people who handle the elite customers. However i would question how many of those receiving rebates from the tab, are receiving them by doing the bulk of their betting on nz harness. Thats a point that is very important to harness racing,and harness racing should not get sucked in by what the tab says around elite customer numbers. i know how it works,and nz harness racing pools have become too small to encourage larger wagering. The TAB with their algorithms on certain accounts are also killing the level of tote betting for some. In my opinion,the tab is doing harness racing a major disservice and part of the reason is because they don't care that much about harness racing anyway.They have other priorities.

1 placing from 4 tonight. To be fair we all have bad runs i suppose.Tomorrow may see his luck change.

Who knows,but maybe the whale reads bit of a yarn. Because this week he has gone for horses paying better prices. But this thread isn't about doubting his knowledge or selections,its about the impact he has on prices. Well tonight his 4 selections $4.50 into $3.60,$13 into $8.50,$3.80 into $2.50,$2.80 into $2.40 Tomorrow $6 into $4.50,$4.50 into $2.80,$8.50 into $6,$3 into $2.70,$2.70 into $2.20 and 1 thats price hasn't dropped. Thats just his whale watch tips above the betting markets on the tab website. So 9 of the 10 horses selected have seen significant drops in prices. All having been win and place movers 3 times in a matter of a few seconds. I would assume he is betting on 3 different tab accounts that the TAB have linked. The reality is tomorrows markets have only just come out and the price drops happened almost immediately. So i would suggest there is your answer why the TAB promote his selections each time on the website. Anyone who is betting on them is getting them at odds well below realistic value. The realistic value is gone with seconds of the odds coming out.So going by the law of averages,the TAB should always come out on top overall because punters are still investing ,despite the unrealistic odds. Maybe its trackside and its presenters who are the ones who should know better than to suggest punters back his selections,knowing they are always paying under the odds.

spatchcock. I had an idea you like commenting on people so i looked up your last 10 posts.Its not something i have done before,but it confirmed my memory still works to some extent. Heres how you have described other posters in your last 10 posts. whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there.

i could say..... stop your whinging when it comes to your comments about cookson......... But i'm not here to somehow attempt to undermine your opinion on something.I'll leave that to you. Having said that,this forum is about expressing opinions,so go for it. What does it matter you ask. Well i explained that. Obviously you didn't pick that up. I can say my first thoughts when i read your reply was to have a wee chuckle.

I agree the TAB's treatment of successful punters is contributing to the industries demise. The reality is ,as you have said many times,the TAB's current goal is to use whatever tools they have to discourage successful punter participation in nz. The tab's motto is we want your business, but only if you are a loser. Just ask some of their customers. Bookies jobs are to take an equal proportion of bets on all possible outcomes and to factor in a margin,which is their profit. Sure that means sometimes offering fixed odds at less than realistic prices depending on how much support each horse gets,,but that is what they should be able to do. Having said that,bookies should also have the confidence to back their own judgment at times. But they don't.For example i have been commenting about the whales selections recently. I struggle to believe the pathetic odds the tab offers for his selections are totally based on money bet. The TAB just seem so adverse to any loss that they fail to maximise their returns when the opportunity arises . People out there justify the tab's approach by saying its sensible policy to limit their losses from winning punters. They point to how overseas bookmakers operate.Those who do that fail to acknowledge that nz does not have that huge customer base. Also they fail to take into account how most successful punters in nz reinvest profits from betting back into other aspects of the industry.For example it can be in the form of breeding or as an owner paying training expenses or encouraging others to participate..And of course many successful punters invest substantial amounts on the tote,which the tab takes a cut from.The tab's current policies are and will continue a negative flow on effect to that.

He might be due to return a profit. He hasn't in the 3 meetings so far this week. Its not his fault that the horses he tips always drop about half their opening prices. Thats what this thread is about. Theres no denying his knowledge. i think its a worrying sign when punters know so little about what horses they bet on and follow his tips like sheep. The final dividends of his selections never are an accurate reflection of their chances. And its not like punters are getting on early at the higher prices. If you follow the fixed odds markets you would see that someone,i assume the whale,is punting them as soon as the markets come out the day before,so the sheep punters are always backing at the silly prices,irrespective of whether they win or lose. Ive often wondered if the whales tips are bet on by people who are laundering drug money or something like that. Or is he appealing to the casual punter? Commentator selections always see significant drops in prices,just not to the same extent as the whale. The whale is a great salesman.

The other 2 he has tipped at auckland are currently paying $1.65 to win and one he says to back for a place paying $2.50. his 3 tips at winton are currently paying to win $2.40,$2.70 and $6.

I know i've said it before,by why do punters keep backing the whale tips. I say that not because he doesn't know his stuff,but because every horse he ever tips seems to get huge punter support and they always pay well below their realistic prices.As a result anyone who follows his tips is not likely to make a profit.Just work out a dollar each way on his tips and you will see what i mean. Also,because every selection he ever makes has 3 drops in prices as soon as the tab puts the fixed odd prices up,i am assuming he is one of those punters who the tab have an algorithm on his account and accounts associated that he uses. Having watched him,i think its the confidence he displays and the hype the trackside presenters give him, that sells his selections to the punters. i much prefer the mark cookson approach myself. He gives most horses a mention and while he gives selections he doesb't push as hard and doesn't effect prices like others do. I reminds me a lot of how dave mcdonald did things.

Brodie did you see the mortality rate in nz went up 10% last year. It was 7.5 per 1000,up from 6.8 per 1000 in 2021 and averaged 6.7 per 1000 in the previous 10 years..They blamed it on covid ,yet if you look at the figures even if they included all the covid number(when of course they had officially included deaths of people with covid who had other serious health issues, as covid deaths),they only account for half of the increased death rate. Seems the pattern is the same in other highly vaccinated countries. Brodie on the money again i think.

Like i have said,i think as far as nz harness goes,you aren't being realistic in the supposed $ benefits. Yes the NZ TAB has been hopelesss in its decision making for years. Remember the costly website which we have and that they changed to in recent years was a disaster.It saw a huge drop off turnover in the first few months as they lost customer after customer out of frustration with the tab. It was discussed on here ,and you just had to shake your head at how dumb the TAB decision makers were. I've discussed on here how if you go into a tab and want to place a fixed odds,don't expect the tab staff to be able to help in showing you how its done.I did that last year and the 3 tabs i asked had no employees who knew how to fill in a betslip form to place a fixed odds bet.One telling me,i don't bet so why should i know,before walkng off. Then i rang the tab helpline and asked the. The fella was freindly and tried to help but told me he hadn't been trained in how to fill in a betslip for a fixed odds bet. By chance i discovered how to do it was on the back of the betslip. Then you have the fools at the TAB who slash the FF odds because they have algorithms set up to immediately slash both win and place odds if targeted punters put as little as a $20 place bet with potential loss of $10 to the tab book. I was talking to another punter just a couple of days ago who was moaning about that,I know some punters have reduced their turnover on the tote by close to a couple of million in the last couple of years because of how the tab algorithms impact fixed odds then flow through to tote prices. And if the tab odds setters were so bright,why haven't they worked out that many punters back on horses that are the win movers.Its like the tab is thinkimg,hey,we stand to lose only $20,but because it is from a targeted punters account,then lets slash the odds. Then,oh no,more punters are betting on that win movers,because its a win mover,the exact thing the bookies don't want.Its so dumb,yet they can't even figure that out.Why don't they just base the win movers on how they balance the books? Like i've also said.I personally recently bet on a horse with a $20 win bet 5 times in the space of 10 minutes. Each time the price dropped,each time i cashed out. In the end that horses price dropped 5 times on the ff win because of my 5 bets,yet i had not 1 cent on it because i had cashed out. I did it just to prove the point to someone i was talking to at the time.. I am not a big better,yet they even have algorithms on my account. So yes the nz TAB is doing a poor job . But to me i keep thinking its because they are well intentioned but just dumb.. So maybe they have had there chances,but to me a properly,clever nz tab was and is the better option.

That seems like wishful thinking to me. And this is a harness racing forum. Why would you think nz harness racing would be any better off? If its going to be such a multimillion dollar windfall as you predict for nz harness,then how come we don't see that being reflected in stake levels in australian harness racing.You can't tell me nz harness racing is going to be treated any better than australian harness racing is by an australian betting provider. I can't follow the logic behind your optimism. I do believe that the NZ tab is doing a poor job in encouraging wagering. However to me Its like a business who employ phone operators who are doing a poor job and that is impacting the level of work and income that the shareholders are receiving. Client numbers just aren't there,and the drop off in work load is being exacerbated by the businesses poor phone operator service. So what do the shareholders do. They could get take option a and get their act together and drive change so their current phone operators who they directly employ provide a service which leads to greater levels of work,confidence and greater returns. Or they could take option b,outsource the phones to a call centre. They give it to a call centre ,who have a high workload from similar type businesses.In effect they are relying on others to drive the change required to make their business grow,while at the same time losing input into how their product is sold and perceived.All the while the shareholders recognising their business is small compared with the volume the call centre handles for other more important clients. Well i know how this plays out. Customer service drops even further.Short term the shareholders see the positives,but long term they start to question the logic behind what they did,and regret sets in, but too late, there is no going back. Change has to be for the better,not for changes sake and wishful thinking. Thats what i believe will happen to harness racing with the proposed change.