the galah

When i put $20 on a horse it will immediately drop the price. That is a fact.It happens within seconds,not minutes. Not every now and again, it happens every time. Thats what i call a pattern. The tab don't deny it. They do so because they now deem that horse as a risk to them and want to reduce money being invested on it. However the reality is,which the tab seemingly fail to recognise,is because of the price dropping the horse becomes a win mover. Win movers attract further punter support because those punters who follow the fixed odds win movers think they are following the money trail. Many tote punters follow the win movers,which results in the tote price dropping. Thats how it works. The difference between you spending $20 on a fixed odds bet and my doing so,is i can safely say i would pick more winners than you. i've explained this enough now,so will leave it up to people to believe it or not.

Race 9 at addington last night is well worth a watch if you haven't seen the video,or only watched the race once. From the position smokin annie was in at the 1000m,it looked an impossibility to win. But it did. It was again proof of what an exceptional driver mr orange is. Horses just run for him,they seem to switch on say lets go,they take gaps in an instance when for other drivers they may hesitate. We've become so used to seeing orange drive that in many ways we take his ability for granted,but last nights race was one that makes you realise we are privileged to see him drive.

Well i am saying it does, Why else was i able to predict that my $20 bet 30 minutes prior to the race start time, would be the start of emmas boys price dropping from $16 that i got, to start at $6. I posted on here it was going to happen and it did. Do you think i am a clairvoyant instead? On another thread yesterday i gave the example of a horse i put $20 on at invercargill,allaboutthemoment,with 1 minute to go at $15,and that $20 bet saw its odds drop to $8ff.It still paid $13 on the tote because people wouldn't have had the chance to react to that price drop as it was so late.That is why i backed it late. I only did the emmas boy bet 30 minutes before to prove to those who read bit of a yarn that what i say is true. I'm just pointing out a significant cause of these price fluctuations.Its what i call the snowball effect.

No,the totes just follow the final odd odds. So many punters don't seem to think for themselves anymore. Wall to wall racing has dumbed down the casual followers. Thats why the whale influences the dividends so much. Well i advised that one 30 minutes before the race just to prove the point. As i said,i put my $20 on Emmas boy at $16 30 minutes before the race. That $20,started the final fields dropping,which just snowballed as it always does,with emmas boy eventually closing at $6. As a result of the final field dropping,the tote price dropped. In the end its winning dividend on the tote was only $6.

Don't the totes just follow the fixed odds changes. In that last race we had Kahress drop from $6 to the crazy price of $1.80. Now i know it nearly won,but who in their right mind would have backed it to bring it into those odds.On the tote it dropped to $2.40.just as crazy,but yet again the tote just follows the final field moves. earlier in the night i know someone who put $20 on classy dancer at $16. Well i then watched it drop to $5 before tote close. On the tote it dropped from $12 with about 20 minutes to go to $5. It actually dropped from $9 to $5 in the last minute. Now i have no idea who these people are that follow these type of bets,but they are backing horses paying under 1/3 of what they were 20 minutes before tote close.Thats not very bright. Now i have just backed emmas boy in the last race. I put $20 on it at $16ff. Now 5 minutes latter it is paying $11 on the ff. I assume the final field followers will see its price drop and i guess it might end even less.I know it shows on the tab website its highest price was $13,but it was really$16 5 minutes ago. All it takes is a $20 bet,and thats enough for these people on televison to say there been a flood of money.I

It was nice tipping by the whale. fixed Odds dropped from $31 he said to $21. Well if i put $20 on it will do that. I just put $20 on one at invercargill and that dropped its odds from $15 to $10. I guess someone else put $20 on as well as it then dropped to $8. Now that was with under 1 minute to go. Had i say backed it with 3 minutes to start time it would have seen the tote price drop to $8 as well,instead of the $13 it paid.It was one not selected pre race by the commentator. Every other horse i have backed today has seen the win price immediately drop of between 10-30%. Now the most i have put on is $30. The point is its a bit of a joke. They are trying to discourage some people from betting by doing this. As i have said before,if i bet more than 1 minute on fixed odds before race start time,then the tote price will drop significantly as punters follow the fixed odds win movers. I don't think my $20 or $30 should have such an influence.

One of todays Headlines is the "the proud boys named nz terrorist group". So the article again is all about virtual signaling and how the labour government will protect New zealanders against white supremacists.. The justification for the use of resources to come up with this being the january 6th riots in the USA.Agencies like the Police must have spent quite a bit of time investigating this. The article states government agencies who spent the time to investigate and recommend this action found the proud boys had NO presence whatsoever in nz. So we can all rest easy knowing the government will protect us against non existent groups in nz they deem bad. Shame they don't spend time on actual real crime. Of course the media love it,which iis who this government pander to.

R M Cameron a great trainer/driver.

No.By some chance have you been watching the wazzup scene, or the stoner scene from Scary Movie? Maybe he was in the background . certainly worth a look

Sounds like your still guessing. Who's R.M? .

Just watched the drive of d ferguson on hot favorite classey operator in race 5 at cambridge last week. You have to ask,whats the difference between d fergusons drive and m mckendry drive on simply sam. Ferguson failed to improve to the outside when he had ample opportunity when 1 length off the leaders at the 600m,then elected to take a position where it was obvious he had no chance of getting a run. How can the stipes charge a driver in one instance,then just accept a feeble explanation from another driver for the same thing. The only difference is ferguson has a recent history of doing the same thing.Now i have no idea whether he trys all the time,maybe he does,but he has been fined for not giving his horse every oppotunity to win and also charged with team driving,all within the last 18 months. So why does he get a pass when others don't for the same thing?

Depends which channel you watch as to what propaganda you see.No matter whatever you think of the russians,they are there and they aren't going away. Obviously the russians felt the zelensky led government was trying to remove the russian influence and history. For example they cited what was being taught in schools.So much more to it all than just security. If zelensky was such a great leader ,why has his country ended up as it has.All seems so pointless,yet the US seem happy to bankroll it all and keep it going.While that happens who's going to compromise.

While its a change of topic,i just watched a very interesting programme on al jazeera which was about a 7 year old boy who was a jockey on one of the poorer, muslim dominated islands in indonesia. He came from a family of jockeys and first started training to be a jockey when he was 4. While his family was poor,the father no longer has to work like he did and the income from their sons riding makes their life very comfortable by the normal standards. He earns in a successful day what his father could in a month working..The horses seemed like big racey ponies and all the jockeys were small boys.The horses were owned by the wealthier on the island.The races are popular and the racing involved gambling which in terms of the poor wealth,the turnover was quite a lot apparently. The father of the boy dreamed of his son one day joining the army if he had enough money when he grew up. Just an interesting insight into what happens around the world.People just trying to survive and using it as a chance to make life better,despite the obvious risks.

Good post. Just a couple of things. At one point you state you have "never seen the level of hatred and contempt directed a politician as it is at adern...in your lifetime." While you've put your finger on much of why that is so, i do think you have very much underestimated the effect of vilifying those who wanted to remain unvaccinated. Its not about her intellect, its not about whether people think she cares or not,people don't doubt that. Its about how she has made us feel.Its never been about vaccines and in some ways its not even about mandates.Its about how she day after day,week after week vilified and divided fellow new zealanders. And then we all watched on as she and her fellow politicians from both sides refused to even enter into any dialogue with the wellington protesters,despite polls showing a third of new zealanders supported them.Personally i have never viewed a politician in such a negative way and i know of several who feel the same way. Another thing i think relevant. We have had the message of how wonderful she is over and over again from our media.Theres an obvious disconnection there. Adern hasn't picked up on that,or if she has then she obviously cares more about whats said about her than how she makes many feel. probably a bit of both.

So your saying you don't think informing the betting public of a trainers thoughts is a good thing.Is that it? Maybe it wasn't necessary. But when a horse comes in for significant enough betting support to result in it ending up 2nd favorite,despite having abysmal form,then why isn't it interesting to know the trainers thoughts post race? Theres plenty of things you could point to in stipes reports that deserves highlighting,e.g. consistency in action taken in different regions. But it seems not,all we get is a topic like this.

Fair enough to see it that way. But why do they still enforce the mandates today when its been clear for some time that they are no longer necessary? All they are doing is creating greater staff shortages in many jobs, including the likes of doctors and nurses. We should have had a government who handled it like the japanese. On their ministry of health website,where they strongly recommended getting the vaccine, they had the intelligence to highlight "no vaccination will be given without consent. Please do not force anyone in your workplace or those around you to be vaccinated and do not discriminate against those who have not been vaccinated.' This message was also prominent on prime minister fumio kishida"s website,and is the message his government has strongly reinforced. Now that is leadership. His government still has approval ratings in the mid sixties,and you can see why.

Well i voted for NZ first,knowing he would go with Labour. I always thought anyone who followed what he said over the years must have known that would happen if he had the balance of power. Seemed a no brainer to me at the time.It was all media hype to say he may go with National. The media is run by organisations with their own agendas who will do whatever they can to undermine someone with a message they don't like. Nationals handling of the vaccine mandates and the promotion of fear was just as bad as labour. They just would have been more fiscally prudent.But of course National always put the $ first,and history shows those policies have run roughshod over the environment. If there was one issue that i think you could sum up how poor labour is it would be the ban on live livestock exports.They decided that there was enough evidence to warrant the ban,but they said they wouldn't implement it for 2 years.They didn't have the balls to do what they thought was right straight away.

I tend to agree about the national party assessment. As to adern,if she really cared about people,then why has she knowingly disrupted so many peoples lives with her vaccine mandates and her rule by fear. Personally i think her actions don't match her words. And why does she feel the need to comment in such a negative way on the abortion ruling in the US supreme court. She just falls into the hypocritical group who argue for freedom of choice as far as my body,my choice when it comes to abortion, but did the complete opposite when it came to vaccines.Those arguing the other side of that are just as bad as they argue for the implementation of laws preventing abortion,while arguing pro choice for vaccines.They are all hypocrites. Adern always gives me the impression she is auditioning for some future overseas job whenever she talks to the international media.The fact the woke media love her,says a lot,given the media is so distrusted these days. As to andrew little,i think he always means well,and actually is more in touch with how the average person feels,than adern is.Its just he hasn't delivered. In areas like mental health the country is so much worse off now,and it need not have been as bad. I remember talking to a man who ran a business with 3 factories related to the building industry just after Labour got in the first time. It was a business who had 3rd and 4th generation empoyees from the same family.His assessment was i think the most accurate way to summarise the difference in the parties. He said Labour got voted in because people have the perception that national don't care as much about people,and just focus on the $,but what will happen is labour will end up spending too much and won't be able to deliver on what they promise,so people will again end up turning to national. He supported neither party,but like us,lamented the fact that you can't have a caring government who know how to keep the cheque book balanced.

it will interesting to watch its progress. Like you say,purvis does a good job,but even allowing for that it was surprising it got so much support. Thats what makes meetings like todays interesting.Horses like that create interest.Its a bit like watching alan clark drive. No one drives like him,so when you see something different, it catches your attention and creates discussion..

But he always makes for an interesting watch.From a betting perspective ,you always know what to expect is a positive i suppose. Megarock at $15 does seem great price.Well done if you had some of that. I took reformed.I thought it would have dictated in front,but just a bit slow to begin meant its chances were gone.. Reformed is by changeover,and to me they all seem to lack a mental toughness and they need things to go there way. The race i found frustrating was the black shadow. I anchored him with 4 in my quinella,but for reasons unknown to myself afterwards,left out hidden desire and only got 1st and 3rd. quinella paying $228 was frustrating. Not sure why the black shadow paid so much as it made a lot of ground in its previous fresh up run.I had thought hes samtas excuse was a winner. Loomed up to win but the horse seemed to have no interest in giving its best. All in all an entertaining days racing and well done to blair wilmott for winning the nz amateurs title.

If you watched that first amateur race and the non win trot you would have seen a couple of interesting and very entertaining races.. In the first of the amateurs it looked like sheldon murtha driving the 2nd favorite was not travelling well enough to keep up with the mobile and missed the start by 4 lengths. He never paniced and in the end settled back and when the pace slackened at the 800m sent it forward and in the end won nicely. A well judged drive. After the race it appeared the horse was bleeding behind the back foot,which looked like it must have had mud fever,so that would be why it looked a bit uneven in the run to the start. So a well judged drive by murtha,and the horse showed some courage to run so well despite the discomfort. Then in the non win trot you had alan clark set his horse alight from the start,running very fast sectionals before it inevitably ran out of puff. It was an entertaining race.

The horses that ran 2nd and 3rd last night to Von Art had both won over $200,000 ,one with 9 wins from 45 starts and the other has has 12 wins. It did beat off n gone the week before. Deus ex was risky over here in stands and didn't seem to like to stand long. Didn't see the race in question last night but they do stand there a long time in some states of australia.Probably predictable he wouldn't go away if he had horses on marks close up behind him. Amore vita drawing 1 and the honey queen drawing 2 meant their races were just a procession. Obviously good horses,but from a competition point of view their races weren't exciting.Its such an advantage to get on the rail at that track.I suppose if you like seeing good horses run you would have been happy,but who would bet on those races when they have red hot favorites paying $1 to win like amore vita did? Give me a competitive non win race at methven any day.But thats just me. I did watch a derby i think it was,where the hot favorite drew 6. Chris barsby said pre race that it was the first time the son of somebeachsomewhere(i think) had run beyond 1700m.And sure enough he was right as racing parked was too much for him,and he faded out. Sounds like the redcliffe cup was a good watch. Those handicap races make it more exciting to watch. Love your enthusiasm for the queensland racing. Chris barsby the best commentator in the world i think.

You would have to wonder whether the above ross and chris wilson trained horses got mixed up when they went to australia. Robyns playboy,a good horse here,can't keep warm and doesn't appear to want to race from the morris stable,whereas von art,a noted one pacer who did a handy job in the 45 and below rating races here,has grown 2 extra legs and won its last 6 in a row for emma stewart ,beating easily the likes of off n gone along the way. Tonight it ran a 1.55.3 mile rate for 2230m.

Most wouldn't have thought it could have get off the ground.But it did.So that must be a reason to think positive for the future. There can be no denying the benefits to the industry from having such a programme,and its entertaining. I hope all those involved,including yourself can continue their input and the programme can be adequately funded.Thanks also to the sponsors. My wife and i look forward to seeing the programme again soon.

You obviously are a thinking punter who invests based on their own knowledge. The TAB seem to use the whale to cater to the casual punter who has no knowledge,so in some ways the TAB is dumbing down its audience and showing they consider the casual punter of more importance. Which type is more likely to return as a consistent customer? I'm not a mick guerin fan He insulted the unvaccinated and gave them a lecture on how they were bad people,and how ,because of their choice,they deserved no consideration or respect. I just switch channels when he has any input.always will. The other trackside presenters i have no problem with as they are just doing what they are asked to do. They are generally easy to listen to, although i don't take much notice myself either.Presenting wall to wall racing from who knows where means they have to be a bit robotic most times. Thats why the channel 83 that they had been showing was such a point of difference for harness racing.Its format reconnected the viewer with the product in a way trackside never will.I like it that jason teaz has the knowledge to tell us steve clarke is good at getting any horse away from a stand,that teaz helped matt purvis get hold of victor bravo,tells us when chris butt drove his last winner,etc,etc ... I also like the way they go through each horse pre race,video replays of previous wins,replay of last half of race again after dividends,etc,etc. On the main trackside channels half the field never get a mention.If you have one of those horses,theres no connection for relations,or work mates,or friends who have tuned in to watch. No excitement watching the recording to see what is said about the horse you spend a good part of your week attending to.