Walt

I'm forgiving Shad but it is frustrating when you know the horse has the ability to win races but is unable to get around without blowing to bits. If he doesn't break badly at the start, he loses it later in the race. I'd prefer to see him sorted out at trials before he reappears in races. Looking forward to him showing his ability.

When considering a wager I always factor in the value of the race. It's a valuable indicator when it comes to races being targeted by connections. I can't find the stake of races I've looked at. It may be there somewhere but I can't see it in the usual place you'd expect to see it. Next to the name of the race. I simply won't wager if I don't know the value of the race.

How relevant are political polls ? Context is always important. National, NZ First and ACT are now Government due mostly to the fact large numbers of New Zealanders despised what the previous Labour Government did and wanted a Government to do virtually the opposite. That's pretty much what they got. In what way are those voters represented in TV New Bulletins? They aren't. All we've had since the election in October is a relentless flood of vested interest nonsense bagging the Government dressed up as news. There is zero balance. As always, media agendas dictate the direction of travel. After six months of that crap it would be a shock to see political polls showing anything other than a fall in support for the new Government. This is exactly why another poll seen in news bulletins on April 8th 2024 is far more relevant. What a shame Maiki Sherman like other media have chosen to ignore it. https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018933239/people-s-trust-in-news-has-tumbled-over-the-past-year-survey-shows#:~:text=For the first time since,40 per cent in 2023. How relevant is the timing of political polls? Three months out from an election polls are relevant. A month out they are more important. Two weeks out they are even more relevant. 130 weeks out from the next election polls mean absolutely squat. Opposition parties are in a dripping water on a stone campaign mode but the Government couldn't possibly care less and rightly so. Nobody runs an election campaign better and smarter than Winston Peters so what NZF is polling at two and a half years out from election day has zero relevance. If you want a reminder of that just look at the 2% he was polling at six weeks out from election day 2023. How quickly has vested interest Maiki Sherman forgotten that? ACT and National are also just getting on with being Government. As time ticks over and the positive results of some of their policies start to come in you'll see folk knowing they are so much a better alternative to the previous load of Muppets who farcically still believe Hipkins is the right person to lead NZ despite conclusively proving he's absolutely not......unless of course you're Maori or Pacifica demanding and receiving special treatment, unemployed, gay, transgender or an unskilled immigrant. Labour's new voter base. Forget blue collar workers. Why? Because that's what Labour has done. When you have to clean up a mess left behind and start rebuilding things take time. Our media place zero relevance on that fact. It contradicts their agenda. If the way TVNZ's new political editor presented the new poll result last night is any guide she's not fit for purpose. It was presented like a major crisis and how NZF would no longer be in Parliament if an election was held tomorrow. All context was lost as there is no election for 130 far king weeks. David Seymour copped the same sort of bullshit. It's not "Breaking News" and it's absolutely not a "Crisis". What it is in reality is an irrelevant snapshot completely bereft of context.

That may be true Murray but I didn't know him personally. Even if I did and agreed with you, I wouldn't say that publicly when the man is no longer with us. Not only is it disrespectful but not cool for any of his loved ones to read.

Stop talking sense Special Agent. You'll get locked up

100% Galah After a few decades of punting you get to understand the relevance of a significant drifter in the betting. The early money was almost certainly the result of all those punters that know his ability, assumed it's the Westport Cup so he'll be nailed down and wouldn't travel distance just for a run....and it being a very winnable race for him. Those punters getting in early is to beat the expected dropping in his price as the race nears. When a genuine contender gets the blows late it almost always matches it's race day performance. Hard to quantify how meaningful that is but I'd say only one out of every 40 runners wins after meaningfully drifting in the market 30 minutes prior to race start. If you watch every race on Trackside today you'll very rarely hear the caller say the horse won despite a betting drift. It's almost like rocking horse poo $12 to $15 is no biggie. $5 to $8 is a much bigger deal. $2.80 to $4.60 has red lights flashing....Don't touch, not today. As I stated in my first post in this thread, I received a call from a long time mate who is a well known harness man in North Canterbury. We ended up talking talking about the Westport Cup about 45 minutes before the race kicked off. I told him I had wagered on Mo'unga who looked a good thing. He said your ticket is worthless. It's a not today job. He was 100% right as he almost always is. When Mo'unga got the blows I knew it was game over before the race even started. I just didn't expect it to be so far king blatant. I don't know what it takes to haul someone's arse into the room if what unfolded there didn't even warrant questions being asked and a reminder of obligations put firmly on the table. Instead, it was a "FREE PASS', enjoy your day. As for the comments the TAB cheerleader has made. Yes, the connections enjoy winning. Who doesn't? Like most people they won't like wasting their dosh wagering on a horse that was never there to win the Westport Cup. As for the grass track element. It's akin to horses in Canterbury preparing to race in Auckland and vice versa. They practice going the opposite direction in trackwork. Mo'unga wouldn't have traveled that distance with no knowledge of how he'd handle grass. The grass is almost always less of an issue for horses that do a lot of beach work. Fact is Mo'unga to my eye never looked anything other than comfortable on the Westport grass. His run home was the most impressive of the day confirming he was like a duck to water.

I acknowledge that race fitness is hugely important and is sought after when you intend going after multiple targets during a campaign. I also acknowledge that horse management is vitally important. Busting a gut first up makes no sense and that aspect should be factored in when considering your wager. Having said that, the punters dollar is worth the exact same amount in the Westport Cup as it is in the NZ Cup or any other race. I have no issue whatsoever with the connections looking after Mo'unga first up at Westport but context is important. Mo'unga was in the eyes of many the best horse in the Westport Cup. He had race options available a lot closer to home so punters would have assumed the connections felt he was ready to rock and roll in the Westport Cup. That's where a big part of the issue here raises it's head. What many punters believe ready to rock and roll means is open to interpretation. The connections will have known the horse would start fav in the Westport Cup. Punters wagered their dosh in good faith but the horse was never put into the race despite him clearly going well. By the time Robbie moved he had a 0% chance of winning the race. It was that blatant which is what irks me most. The amount of ground he made up when actually asked for an effort told a compelling story. The fact a question was not asked by the Stewards is appalling in my opinion. Gifting free passes for what was obviously a contrived race plan only ensures such contempt for punters continues. It removes confidence to wager and that stewards have your back. I punt most weeks but put my cue back in the rack after the Westport Cup. As I stated previously, had I made the trip to Westport I would have walked off the course in disgust after Mo'unga's performance. The irony there is I would have walked off the track feeling filthy where as the connections would have been smiling for a job well done. What he's done since and the way he's done it against some nice horses only underlines what unfolded at Westport and how questions should have been asked.

It's not unreasonable to question results Newmarket. I do it myself along the way. The glorious uncertainty of sport also applies to horse racing. As you know horses are not machines and can surprise even their connections with a good or bad run. There are a truckload of factors to consider when analyzing a field pre and post race. Sometimes what they are paying is not a true reflection of their chance but they all can't start fav and someone always has to be the rank outsider. I take you back to the Group 2 Waikato Flying Mile in early April. I'm adding a link. Mach Shard was driven by Scott Phelan. He's a good enough driver but not blessed with the same ability as our top drivers. He does however get to sit behind some very good horses which will always help. Mach Shard ran a slashing race for sixth only point three of a second behind Merlin and a few other top liners. I was impressed with the run and suggested on here he was a contender for the The Grins. I've also added a link for that race. He ran second last but looks can be VERY deceiving. He was in tight quarters for the last half and that didn't change in the home straight. He had little real opportunity to improve and when the likes of Merlin and Don't Stop Dreaming are already at least five lengths ahead you have zero chance. I felt his run was a very good one against some superb horses. The inference being that the next time he has open spaces in a race he could be a genuine contender. First change is a new driver. Crystal Hackett has a ton of ability and is getting better all the time. I felt Mach Shard deserved to be at shorter odds than a few that were paying less than him. Horses like Don't Stop Dreaming and Merlin have had big and long campaigns. Very few horses can just line up month after month in feature races and keep winning. As you know, water on a racetrack can be a great equalizer. I wouldn't have backed Mach Shard to win myself if I was wagering but if I had taken a trifecta I would have been uncomfortable leaving him out. Without wishing to be wise after the event, the price he paid was not a reflection of his chances. 50-1 maybe but not 150-1 + https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=41D4C060-E298-42E5-9A7E-C2A0E334D781&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE .https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=061FF836-433F-4D8B-886E-484BE29516FF&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

That's the one Brodie. She's had about 15 or 16 starts. Alan Edge is a strong supporter of the amateur drivers races so I assume this mare was purchased with those races in mind. Rightly or wrongly when I see a horse starting in those races I tend to view them as those being the best opportunity for them to get a dollar. She's a tough mare who had a good draw so taking advantage of that made sense. Her winning was only a mild surprise. What to me anyway was a much bigger surprise is that she could work three times in the race and still win comfortably like she was a red hottie. Some of her rivals were tired horses at the end of the race but she looked like she could go around again. Lot of bottom to the mare and was driven with enormous confidence by inform Jonny Cox

why a horse that won at Rangiora today has not many more races instead of just three? Was driven out like she was the best horse in the race despite many of her runs being in amateur drivers races which in it's self tells a story. There were a couple of reasonably good horses in the field that were clearly there to race. Was seriously had on in front but refused to yield until the driver had little option but to hand up later in the race. Under the circumstances many would have expected the mare to tire before the finish as other rivals did. Instead, this mare joined in again from the trail and won fairly comfortably. Very very tough mare. She was in good form but is clearly tougher and better than I ever gave her credit for. I haven't mentioned her name as I don't wish suggest anything dubious only that I was surprised by what I viewed but those who watch their share of races will know who I'm referring to.

In January this year I spent a lot of time reviewing races and trials for our local Nelson meeting. A trotter caught my eye in his trials that loudly said to me it had ability. It's the Gavin Smith trained and driven "Heartbreak Hotel". I felt if he trots at Nelson, he wins. Unfortunately on the first day he shit himself at the start. Watching him go around well behind the field on what was an awesome day felt a bit like being served up a plateful of fresh wet dog shit. On the second day I questioned if I should keep the faith. I did and Heartbreak Hotel did an almost carbon copy of what he did on the day one. I felt he obviously needed to learn how to get around in one piece prior to considering him a winning prospect even if he was racing against a dromedary or two. I see he's in at Rangiora today in Race 3. He's at $26 fixed odds. I'm not suggesting you punt on him. I wouldn't back him even with stolen money until I know he can hold it together. What I am suggesting however is he's worth throwing in to exotic bets with the knowledge he does have enough ability to be winning races at some point. He may continue being a Headache Hotel but don't be shocked when he does put his hand up. He'll be winning races when he does that.

He's so weak and pathetic with his constant sniping trying desperately to be relevant and hold on to the Labour Leaders role. He failed so badly when in Government that it gifted the top floor to Luxon, Peters and Seymour who I believe are mostly doing a very good job. Their only failure so far to my eye is the way they're treating Police pay negotiations etc. The only success Hipkins had was to help divide NZ via his virtue signaling and naivety. He reminds me of a little white poodle yap dog humping away at your leg. NZ needs a good opposition party. The Maori Party and Greens are all about their own agenda and nobody gives a monkey's toss what Hipkins says so Labour need to pull finger sooner rather than later. Hipkins should put the good of the country over his own personal ambitions. He's not fit for purpose.

Hard to make excuses for all the others when the winner come from the rear and finished like that. There are a lot of things about the end of the race that were unfamiliar to me yet another that was very familiar. I can't recall the last time a G1 winner at Alex Park paid in excess of $100. I remember Flight South beating Yulestar in the 2000 Auckland Cup and paying North of $100. I can't remember others but feel sure there will be. Truth is I can't remember many harness racing winners in any class of race at any track paying that sort of price. I remember a two race winner Count Tryax winning at Alex Park in 1977 and paying over $100. I had $2 on him I also struggle to recall the last time a G1 winner at Alex Park or any NZ track came from effectively last on the home turn to win? What an epic thrill that must have been for young Crystal Hackett. Well done to her! I'd wager the family will be reliving that thrilling moment for decades to come with an enormous amount of pride. I'm sure Barry Purdon like all other trainers remember every G1 winner they've trained but the win of Mach Shard will be right up there in his memories. The only aspect of the G1 Taylor Mile result familiar to me was the trainers family name for the first three home. 1st.....Purdon 2nd...Purdon 3rd....Purdon https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=3E01CAA8-3ACF-420A-8D69-FA9879CBB922&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE Any truth in ATC renaming the race "The Purdon Mile"?

A life well lived. Head of a champion family. Respect to a man that will be well remembered by many. If there is a heaven, Lisa and Maire will be waiting to greet him with open arms.

I feel you need to set your sights a bit higher Aquaman. If you're going to be a bird go for an Eagle. Be the boss up there. If you are having bad day just drop the under carriage onto the nearest eggplant. There's plenty of them around. I'm going to put my name down for the 100 metres against the 8 years and under girls at my granddaughters primary school sports day. I won't take any prisoners. Wish me luck

It's not all bad Special Agent There is some good news in there. When WWIII kicks off and the enemy are storming our beaches etc, the perpetually offended men who get off playing dress ups will just tell the enemy how offended they are and they'll change their mind, apologize and leave. We'll all be saved by the deranged trannies

Not sure how Stephen Douglas got in there. That was not what I typed and even when I corrected it here it's reverted back to the error. Both Michael and Stephen were very good jumps riders in their day going up against the likes of Paul & Wayne Hillis and Peter Tims etc

What I'd put a stop to is the state having to pay for their highly successful breeding program. They are breeding new gang members and in big numbers and not having to pay a razoo to do so. Mug tax payers pick up that tab. Better add a Whare to that requirement also. It gets a bit boring for the mums having to raise another crop in a Motel year after year

He was a beauty Bid. He had a huge heart on the track and was well trained to show his best. Great to see him again. Cheers

Wear your dinosaur badge with pride Aquaman.....no, not that pride but real pride I too am a dinosaur. I know this to be true as several "they, them's" said I was a dinosaur when I had the audacity to refer to an obvious man as "he"

Kenny wasn't the most elegant rider but he didn't need to be with Crown Star. He's still the best NZ Jumper I ever witnessed in the flesh and I watched some absolute beauties

Thank you Freda. I always enjoy your input. I question what if any role the TAB / Trackside have in the inevitable demise of NZ Jumps Racing. There is a school of thought out there that Jumps Racing is cruel and outdated and not a good image for the TAB product want viewers to buy into. Aquaman giving his not unreasonable view previously in the thread highlighting that. The voice against may be small but it's loud. On the other hand the voice of those that support Jumps Racing is considerable but it's a quiet voice mostly accepting of the fact you can't stop the tide from coming in. Then you have the relentless quickfire quantity over quality product Trackside presents. It's perfectly designed for compulsive gamblers despite the TAB's denials of that. We've now even got races coming from areas that a percentage of those that punt on them likely have no clue what country the races are even in. Many of those races are run over sprint distances so they are over with quickly and on to the next one. That fits in with the greyhound type timetable. Race over and straight over to the next roulette wheel turn at Wollomolollobangdong etc etc etc. Then look at the time it can take to run a Steeplechase in Winter. 5 minutes plus is common. How many dog races can you fit into that time? Jumps Racing totally contradicts the Trackside / TAB agenda. Some years ago the NZ TAB was not even accepting wagering on iconic Australian races like the Australian Grand National Steeplechase and Hurdles because they clashed with very average NZ races. What message does that send? Jumps racing started being seen by some as an inconvenience rather than an asset. Less jumpers were being prepared. More jumping races were replaced with Highweights. Punters were justified in not wanting to wager on 6 horse fields. It was a vicious circle as the clubs were on a hiding to nothing running jumps races that didn't attract the same level of betting that a larger maiden field would. Jumps riders either put the cue back in the rack or crossed the ditch. Had it not been for a few well known jumping stables I think Jumps Racing would have already been consigned to the history books. Two venues always got my attention. The first was Ellerslie with it's iconic hill. The other was Paeroa with it's Inter Island Chase etc. I'd drive to Paeroa at least twice every winter. Always appreciated it's hill. The normal scenario was I'd take a car full down with me from Auckland. My best day was when the dashing grey Deino's Ruler was doing his thing from the front catch me if you can. I think Stephen Douglas rode him. I know he was owned by H Duncan and Mrs Retter but I thought he was trained by the Archers. He only won four races but I must have been on him every time. I put a large wager on him for my mother who loved a grey and went shopping with her where she spent her winnings on a new wardrobe. If someone would have told me back then that Paeroa Racecourse would be gone and the Ellerslie hill would be deemed surplus to requirements I would have lost my arse. Jumps racing will be gone in 10,9,8,7........ Can't see them running the Grand National at Riccarton in a few years time with three runners. That will be the final nail in NZ Jumps Racings coffin. R.I.P

Seeing any horse get hurt is awful Aquaman regardless if it's in a race or just in the paddock. I was at Riccarton about 40 years ago when four horses fell at a fence prior to turning for home. Three of them were a ghastly distressing sight. One hobbled up the straight on three legs in full view of everyone on-course. To have three horses put down on one jumping race is not something you forget in a hurry. We had a rural property North of Auckland and had 11 ex racehorses at one point. Have always been a softie for all animals, especially horses. ...even when it cost us a fortune to keep them. Had we not, their destination was grim. We'd like to save all horses from that same grim fate but that's just not practical. It's a side of our industry that has always irked me. I went to the yearling sales in the early 80's and a truckload of yearlings that didn't meet their reserve were sent straight to the slaughterhouse. I made my feelings known about that but was told it was a better outcome for those horses than risk them ending up with an "unreliable owner"....when you're dealing that that logic and justification it's not easy to make progress. A more honest answer would have been the breeder needs to get a return from these horses one way or another. It's what is expedient not what is in the horses best interest. Five years ago after a lifetime of being a big meat eater I came to a confronting realization. Me supporting an animal sanctuary and caring deeply for animals but being part of the processing of animals for human consumption and knowing what unfolds makes me a hypocrite to continue eating them. I did what felt right for me and started eating a vegetarian only diet. It's not a protest or an attempt to convert others. I just do what feels right and is comfortable to me. The reason I share this is to highlight that I'm not indifferent to the suffering and distress of animals, yet I strongly support jumping races. These horses are bred to race. There is no lush green paddock waiting for many horses when their racing days are over. Stopping jumps racing does not extend the life of many horses. The reality is it does the opposite. Some of my best memories on a race track involve jumping races. As I stated earlier the irony of that is that some of my worst memories on a racetrack also involve jumps races. I've seen so many horses meet their maker in flat races and it's always distressing but thankfully we are not rushing to shut down horse racing. Perhaps waiting a month until the tracks have a bit more give in them would help lessen injuries or other improvements to tracks and fences rather than shutting down jumps racing. Remember Mr Hickey, Crown Star, Hunterville, Loch Linnhe, Our Jonty, Grey Warbler, Hadfield, Cuchulainn, Orca, Rock Crystal, Eric the Viking, Teak, Kumai, The Cossack, Koral, Sea King and thousands of others. Take away jumps racing and very few others would know about the great achievements of these horses.

I remember Ascona winning the great race twice for Kenny. Ardri looking no hope for most of the race with Kenny hard at work only to then grind / plod past them all. Brother Bart and Lord Tennyson who both looked good things as did Sydney Jones with his double. Golden Flare with Clayton Chipperfield winning his double in the early 2000's. Was there to see them all including the great ones you quoted Pete and a host more. Without a doubt this was the winter racing highlight for me so I'm incredulous at it being gone. It's exactly as if history is worthless and meaningless to some. Thought the same when they dug up the mighty Cardigan Bay after he put NZ on the map in the eyes of many. A carpark was more important than him and his legacy.

I did ask you to look elsewhere. You see only what you want to see. How nice for you. Chances are you still put teeth under your pillow convinced you've previously seen the tooth fairy. Just to clarify some input. I stated in the thread starter that the draw for Oscar was less of an issue than it was for Muscle Mountain. That proved accurate I didn't anticipate the Hope's would throw all their eggs into one basket by having an authentic dig for the top. The reason I didn't anticipate it was due to the fact there was very little chance it would be successful. In the unlikely event he made the top he would have used a lot of gas only to then get attacked by the Aussie brigade. The actions of young Ben highlighted they felt their options were limited. I stated prior to the race that despite Muscle Mountain starting at 5's, I was happy to lay him had I been wagering. I rated Muscle Mountain 100-1 about 100 metres after the start. Oscar meanwhile was smoking his pipe back on the inner. He had virtually no hope of getting off prior to the home turn. I didn't say he was climbing over the leaders at the finish. I said that happened in the home straight which was 100% correct. He tried to go on the outside but Arcee Phoenix occupied that spot. He looked for a run inside but Queen Elida occupied that space. He had nowhere to go. Inside the last 100 Mark knew even if a miracle happened and an opening appeared, there wasn't enough time or distance to get the job done. Where others finished around Oscar is totally irrelevant if he was not afforded the opportunity to improve. Had a run appeared turning in Oscar would have run in three for certain. I wouldn't say he would have beaten Just Believe who I have great respect for but would have gone close. When you consider all the facts, my statement there has considerable merit. Your statement that Oscar Bonavena was "outclassed" is the most ridiculous statement I've ever read on this forum. You're also displaying a high level of ignorance to state Oscar Bonavena is better suited to standing start two mile racing. He won another mobile mile just the week before ffs. He has a mile time to has credit of 1.55.2. That's a time many of the greats would be proud to own. Lyell Creek's best mile time in NZ was almost half a second behind Oscar's. Obviously Lyell Creek was the better horse. I only quote mile times to highlight the absurdity of another of your statements. Oscar also won the mobile NZ FFA over 1980 metres in December from barrier seven. He has performed with distinction over all distances from behind the mobile arm and standing starts. My advice to you. Don't misrepresent my words and keep your condescending patronizing bullshit away from my input. Learn to read races authentically and blinker free before rubbishing the perspective of people who have spent almost five decades repeatedly reviewing the form from many thousands of races and made a good living for 20+ years off the punt. Paid off the mortgage of our Auckland home almost exclusively from harness racing wagering. Long term these days I get it wrong with my picks for races about as often as I get it right but own every one of my losing picks. As a result, I'm happy to share my perspective before and after races.