A Few really good threads on here at the moment re' punting, thanks to everyone for contributing and taking time to explain their logic, methods etc.
To me though the above appears flawed and even a little contradictory?
100 horses as 10% chances paying 15's will of course return a good profit if 10 of those horses do in fact win, a BIG if, and the original 10% chance is, at the end of the day, an opinion.
I have highlighted above, expecting that 10 of them will win - and if you continually back them you will win.
This is the flaw and the contradiction for me, expecting to win and will win are generally mutually exclusive when punting horses.
When I personally back a horse in a race I ALWAYS expect it to win, regardless of what it is paying.
To back a horse in a race not expecting it to win but being satisfied with the fact that if it does you will be getting a bigger return, according to your assessment, is something that comes across as unusual to say the least to me.
And to NOT back a horse that you think WILL will win a race because in your assessment it is paying unders, again seams unusual to me.
Anyhow I will continue to follow the threads with interest and again thanks to all the sensible contributors.
Steve.