curious

This post is a pretty good example of the moaning it talks about.

You'd have to ask NZSTI but I'd guess 25-50mm.

Awapuni track redevelopment project These works are underway at present. The reconstruction work consists of the following main steps (in order of works): Killing off and removing the existing turf cover on the entire track. Earthworks to reshape parts of the surface where required (mainly in the back straight) to give consistent cross falls and level transitions. Decompaction of the soil profile following earthworks. Realigning the inside running rail to give a consistent track width (approx. 26m). Installing a new stormwater drainage system to collect and remove water from surface run-off from the track and from the new lateral / slit drain system to be installed. Installing a new automatic pop-up irrigation system with sprinklers located under the inside and outside rails (both sides of the track). Installing 110mm diameter perforated lateral drains in the entire track at 5m centres. Sand topdressing the whole track with sand to be applied prior to grassing. Planting and establishing the whole track with a pure ryegrass turf sward. Installing slit drains in the entire track at 1.0m centres following part way through the grass establishment. Additional sand top dressing. Replacement of track perimeter fencing. Return to racing following NZTR protocols. All the while that this work is underway the complex has to be kept open as a training venue for the local horse trainers with all the inside training tracks available. Perhaps the biggest impact of this is that daily construction works can’t start until after 9.30am which is when daily track work (horse training) finishes. Dust management is critical on what is a big site (5.0ha) with some very close neighbours in the path of the wind.

As far as I am aware Awapuni is not a sand based track? I thought it was slit drained and had a sand top-dressing? Where did you see that?

Heat 1 was reported as a H8.

It was reported as a heavy 8 wasn't it?

Asfoora had a bit of the same problem in the race but that was no problem either! Great day's racing. Love to be there for it again.

Quite a story!

But to date, there's no sign of much if any gain from geoblocking is there? My point at the beginning of this thread.

The relative distribution of the net profit between racing and sports didn't change with the Entain deal. I'm really not quite clear what you are talking about. The Entain deal was done for the benefit of both.

Yes but it's net to TABNZ without the operating expenses and by my estimates, in 2029, will be about 2/3 - 3/5 what the guaranteed payments are now, though still more than what their net was before the Entain deal, without the risk.

I think you should double check with google where it gets that from. Here's a similar AI query that I just did which matches my understanding. Does Entain directly fund NSOs in New Zealand? No, Entain does not directly fund National Sporting Organisations (NSOs) in New Zealand. Instead, all funding flows through TAB NZ, which remains the statutory body responsible for distributing betting revenue to both the racing industry and sporting bodies.

I don't think Entain would have anything to do with it. It's the revenue from them to NZTAB that is distributed to racing and sports, so what share any of them get is negotiated between the code or sport and NZTAB. What the respective allocations are from NZTAB's 50% has no affect on Entain's 50%.

I agree with that, but with current public, political and media support growing, I'd say sports will get at least a more equitable share of the TAB revenue generated from sports betting. Personally, I think that sports should get all that net revenue, not racing. I think $20m of the recent Entain $100m payment has been allocated to sports with a decision pending about how that should be distributed. As far as I am aware, in Australia, racing does not receive a direct share of sports betting turnover.

You might but I don't.

You should read my posts before you question them. I think I clearly said that I don't see how they possibly can not and that the payments are as close to a certainty as you can get.

Exactly.

Simply that I don't see that one way or another, Entain can not pay the guaranteed minimum through May 2028, unless they can sell their contract to someone else who would then have to pay it.

Of course I'm making assumptions. So are you. That's the nature of predictive or futures markets. However, I believe my assumptions are well founded. I have exact Entain revenue data through the end of the 23-24 season. I have exact turnover data since then through August 25. I am assuming that overall margins remain the same through May 28, which is probably generous given the clear trend from tote to FO markets. I'm also aware of the annual growth in turnover to date. So, I am assuming that will remain similar for the balance of the guarantee period. The query of course was whether the online monopoly would change that but 2 months in there is no indication of that. As well, Entain has already written down the value of its TAB NZ operations due to missed targets and market challenges. And they face growing competition from casino licensing and other off shore marketers, especially where their pricing is not competitive. Now if you want to buy a horse to race beyond the guarantee period, or breed a foal that won't even get to the races by then based on your assumptions, then good luck to you.

I don't see how it could possibly become impossible. To me it's about as certain as you can get.

Do you realise how much further wagering revenue has to increase in order for distributions and therefore stakes to be sustained in a couple of years and how far behind original predictions they are in that regard?

I don't recall mentioning KALSHI here or anywhere. You did that. What do you think?

No. Can you?

I'll be joining you PLF. Certainly before the Entain subsidy ends but more likely this year.