curious

Yep me too even though I don't routinely do ratings for NZ racing. I'm also away at a wedding most of Friday and Saturday so probably would have to do this Thursday night based on expected track conditions and may not be able to update.

Good idea. ROI would probably be more predictable too. A steady return of 80-85% of turnover.

Good discussion here guys. Some really useful thoughts. I think what Mardi means by patience, Newmarket, is that better pricing and more value can emerge over time. Hence why he rechecks prices several times as the event gets closer. The key point I take from this thread is that the critical ingredient is accurate assessment of chance (at least more accurate than the market), whether you are backing or laying. Then finding suitable pricing to make all bets value at your acceptable margin (or more).

Because it is Sunday and the Princess's day in bed, tomorrow I'll be going with "S" for Silicone.

where was that again?

Oh.... and my princess is not made out of silicone ...

They will no doubt look better tomorrow

sorry Thommo....I do punt here...and successfully... but not much ... < 1 percent of my total punting. Dream on...and keep updating us with your successful punting after the races have been run.

lol...

You still don't get it do you? You continue to lose by assessing "form". Whatever jurisdiction you bet in, the only relevant correlation with chance is ability, not form. If you are clever enough to adjust ability assessment by some kind of luck adjustment, so be it. If you can further adjust it by weight, blinkers etc. good on you. But you lose because you prioritise those adjustments over the fundamental correlation of chance with ability and fitness. We need more like you so the rest of us can make a decent living.

That's the truth ... mardigras' comments..... and Ellis is talking shyte. Front up with some evidence to the contrary DB.

So caveat emptor applied?

oops, that post lost a piece... [59] In his oral submission Dr Molloy drew the Committee’s attention to the NZTR “Advisement to Trainers” issued on 2 November 2018 which warned trainers of the possibility that race day boxes could be contaminated with human medications due to persons urinating in the boxes while on medication. The notice referred to a recent New Zealand case, and that Dr Grierson had confirmed that there had been cases overseas where this had occurred. Dr Molloy said this needed to be considered in the context that two persons not employed by the respondent but who were known to be using the same public stables as the Rae partnership had tested “non-negative” to methamphetamine.

All vets have, at the very least, comprehensive education in biochemistry at undergraduate level. That goes without saying, and most will have further professional development in that area. The head vet was at least cited here if you actually bother to read the case. Dr. Molloy is particularly well informed in these areas. [59] In his oral submission Dr Molloy drew the Committee’s attention to the NZTR “Advisement to Trainers” issued on 2 November 2018 which warned trainers of the possibility that race day boxes could be contaminated with human medications due to persons urinating in the boxes while on medication. Dr Molloy said this needed to be considered in the context that two persons not employed by the respondent but who were known to be using the same public stables as the Rae partnership had tested “non-negative” to methamphetamine.

Do Japan not use the same timing method as the US, or like here time from gates open?Insert other media

In case you missed it ...

2.20.6! Hard to beat that. And she just went past him with the cruise control tweaked up a notch.

I like Kiseki btw..

wait .... you are now basing your pricing on 200 simulations of a race based on 10 years data? What happened to dropping back, 4kg claims and blinkers on?

I might get a bit more excited if they announced they were scrapping FOB and licensing it out to competent operators.

I still have no video ...

Agree but don't think the minimal weight difference is likely to have any significant impact on future performance.

Good bit of self advice Thommo. I can recommend someone good to do your mental health assessment but great to see you've taken the first step by acknowledging that you have a problem.

As usual, you are not making much sense Thommo.

You might think you've copyrighted the term but you've actually exemplified it and continue to do so.