curious

I'm off to the races tomorrow at Trentham tomorrow. First time at the races in NZ for over 4 years! May or may not have a bet but any value bet suggestions welcome.

They just make up stuff and add more rubbish to support their cause. It's worked in the past, so the bs continues. 70% of rainfall from June through September? Then an example of cancellations during the other 30% rainfall month 8 month period. "The Government has to stop the TAKE, TAKE, TAKE"? I'd say the government needs to reduce the GIVE,GIVE, GIVE and act more in line with our neighbouring jurisdictions to force the racing industry to stand on its own four legs.

Yes. You know my opinion on free speech. Of course I would speak out.

Don't see how you can find any value relying on the form line. That's what all the other losers do.

I agree. I do it quite often. If I couldn't I'd leave also.

I'm guessing that Fred does a lot of guessing.

I don't think you can get a betting slip the day after the races Chief.

You obviously didn't read the decision. No difference at all I'm afraid. That's the rules and the law.

As I said, I don't know what she said. However, it is clear from that decision that she is free to criticise provided that criticism does not involve insults, abuse, obscenities nor assert misconduct or corrupt practice. It is a fundamental human right as you say Chief.

I know that the application of blinkers appears to improve the performance of some horses (and worsen that of others for that matter). However, unless I have very good inside information, I generally don't know which ones those will be. The fact remains that on average, the likelihood of any given horse winning with BO does not increase, so it's useless information from a punting perspective. Mardi has posted substantive analysis evidencing that. As usual with Thomas, its fairy-tale rather than fact. If you have evidence to the contrary, please post it for all to see and back up your claim. Otherwise, you appear to be as silly as Thommo. Thanks.

I don't know what she said but did you not read the RIU v Morton decision re licence holders right to make critical comment in social media or elsewhere?

Why not?

Faster than what?

I think that should read that the horse drawn widest will be in gate #4, not gate #9?

OK. So it is another population stat not an individual horse assessment of fitness? I'll add it to the BP.

What the hell is the "21 day racing pattern". Is that another population stat I need to add to the BP to get it to stop losing money?

How do you know they are a good lead? And for that matter, how do you know there is a track bias? What exactly is that? Would it not be better to develop your own stats? And how can raw barrier stats be a useful indicator if they are not generated in relation to the chance of the individual horses in the first place? Otherwise, they surely just distort markets don't they if more punters rely on them?

Trying to update the BP Thommo. You say the above but with respect to the "course specialist" variable you earlier said: " I apply a max 50% upgrade in value units at times.... " So, what are the criteria that determine whether it is 20% or 50%? Thanks.

That caused me to cancel my CJC membership with immediate effect. Hard to believe that not a single CJC staff member let alone a stipe had bothered to drive round, let alone walk round the course on race morning before sending a bunch of unsuspecting horses and riders round on a race day.

Nope. Haven't worked that out. On the course specialist thing though, I see Winx has won 4 from 4 at Moonee Valley. Does that make her a course specialist eligible for the extra 20% next time she runs there? Mind you, I see she goes ok at Randwick as well, so is she also a course specialist there?

Tell us what a "course specialist" is then. Is it another one of your gross generalisations and population statistics?

You seem to have had 2 or 3 successful punts in the last few years. Keep it up and see if you can add the 50% at the right times so you can buy some air for the Princess.

Not bad sport now and then either ...

Yes, the ratio of OZ turnover to NZ turnover is almost always higher at venues like Reefton than Ellerslie or Trentham so I don't think there's any evidence that would lend weight to that proposition Horseboy. The reverse is more likely true.

Ok. Strange. Did you click on 'Save my details' at the bottom right after changing it?