curious

I'm curious Mardi why you would suspect that you might be better to use a non-normalised distribution. Is your time assessment data not normally distributed?

I'm pretty sure that is against the rules of racing here also though it seems to be turned a blind eye to. To the point where trainers can publicly announce things like that a horse will "need the run".

FTF, wrt time. I differ a bit from barryb a bit on this as I only use whole race time to assess ability and I use lifetime starts for that. I do not try to assess pace/tempo, use sectionals for anything etc. Not that there's anything wrong with that and some do that successfully. It may be that it is more important in NZ racing conditions. In the US the fastest sectional is usually the first whereas here it is usually the last. To use whole race times as an assessment of ability, the critical factor is to establish par times for different courses. This is much easier in the US where one track may race say 100 days a year, cf here where they may race 1 or 2 days. Somehow you have to be able to compare a time on one track and track condition with another. That requires establishing some sort of par times. I don't think raw times are much use at all. They need to be adjusted for both ability of the runner/s and unknown variables like whether the distance is accurate, track condition etc. The Beyer speed ratings in the US were based on par times of track records. This is a reasonable proxy when you have several hundred events a year on a single track. Completely hopeless here so you need another way of establishing those. You may be further ahead than I on this. I've spent 18-24 months on and off trying to get a handle on this for Oz racing and only now am confident enough to probably start betting on Sydney Melbourne metro events next year though still a few wrinkles to work out. Still a bit at sea elsewhere in OZ. There's quite a bit been written about establishing par times and a variety of ways of doing this. Usually this is a range (sometimes one standard deviation for example). Not sure what works best for NZ but do let me know if you find the answer to that FTF

Thanks FTF. As a p.s., I meant to add that I wouldn't use raw strike rate to assess this (or anything for that matter). I think you need to use strike rate cf. expected strike rate. Mardi and I spent weeks trying to convince the powers that be at NZTR that you can't do this when we did some work for them assessing the impact of the changes in the handicap system a few years ago. Starting prices were not accurate enough to use for expected chance, though we found that actual handicap ratings were a reasonable proxy for that even though they were skewed in favour of females and higher rated horses. Problem was we didn't have that option for maiden races. I'll come back to you on your time related questions when I get a chance.

Outside of starting with-in 21 days the SR % drops away significantly. That's interesting and a bit surprising. You can probably have a look at that in your data set FTF. I assume that's for NZ? Maybe Oz as well? I don't find that in the US, though there is a drop-off for less than 15 days. UK Mardi?

Just tried that and it works but don't think the quality is as good as watch&bet?

Is it down or is it just me?

Must be a couple of winners in there barryb. Best of luck.

Because I thought it was interesting, and some have indicated that they are having a go at framing their own markets, I'm going to reactivate this thread with a few questions for the gurus on here and hopefully the thread can stay constructively on track. Barryb and Mardi in particular, and anyone else with expertise and knowledge in this area, 1. When assessing a race or runner, how many variables do you consider? 2. How much time on average do you spend assessing a single race or maybe 8 race meeting say (excluding any reassessment due to change of track condition, scratchings etc.)? 3. I know that Mardi uses apps for simulations to get his estimate of chance and maybe to assess his expected times. So, my question is what proportion of the assessment is software based and how much is done manually? 4. Mardi, I think you said somewhere that closing BF prices are a pretty good approximation of an accurate market. I'm also pretty sure I read a study (I think done in Hong Kong) showing that the correlation between closing tote prices and results was only about 35-40%. My question is, on events where there is sufficient volume for it to apply, how much better is a similar correlation with BF closing prices?

H10 at puni as well.

Hmmm. Into $10 I see. I have it at $15.00 assuming a slow 8/9.

Into $26 I see. Oops, just saw that had already been noted.

Indeed. Just carved the ham and poured a bevie. Lots of thoughts and talk of those no longer with us who we spent many Christmases with. All the best to everyone here, especially racing's front line grinders who are travelling or away from home to bring us tomorrow's racing and also especially Thomass. It's been fun sparring with you through the year. Pretty sure I'm well ahead. Cheers.

Reporting 60mms rain last 24 hours as 8.40 a.m.

Trial 2nd on a H10?

Star Treasure

There's also the matter that we've had people like John Allen and the Strathayr guy come on here and respond to questions. Will they continue to do so if there are idiots wandering around here making random and inflammatory comments and disrupting decent discussions and threads?

Any report of a deflated plastic princess nearby?

I also agree in principle. I think the free speech question is interesting. Probably doesn't preclude trolling and inflammatory remarks or others responding in kind. However there is the question of it intimidating others from speaking freely and engaging with a topic. The issue for me is derailing threads with completely off topic remarks. I think BOAY could consider some kind of rule, not preventing the remarks even if they are insulting or rubbish, but insisting that they must remain on topic or be removed, either altogether or to another thread. I appreciate the irony that I'm writing this post in a thread titled "Holiday Period Best Bets".

Good, sounds like we might be half way home.

We don't need to but that doesn't seem to be sinking in. Just like we don't need to know about gear changes, wind ops, barrier draws, weight, class of race, jump out form, or anything that you think is important. Of course I know people who do successfully consider some of those things, before the race, that is.

which sounds like more of this to me .... Sadly, the priorities right now seem to be top-end prizemoney, new grandstands and corporate entertainment facilities (sigh….).

Perhaps an innovative group of smaller clubs with decent tracks and community support, especially the disenfranchised, or about to be so, should all withdraw from NZTR (if not already being withdrawn), form a separate association ( e.g., Country Racing NZ - could be multi-code), set their own dates, provide their own vision (perhaps via web based channel), integrity services, etc. and negotiate with overseas operator/s to provide the wagering services and funding?

Quiet day on the home front so here's a few from Gulfstream for Thommo to rib me about when they all lose. Rated chance/price backed at follow. R1 #1 Karamchand 8.50/13.00 R2 #5 Dreamin of D'wild 25.00/67.00 R5 #3 Baby Im Perfect 8.00/11.00 R10 #1 Miss Unbridled Cat 12.00/25.00

All good as far as I know. Not sure what it has to do with BOAY though. I'm glad you agree you are full of hot air though.