curious

When you say that, I'm assuming you mean the blinkers on and off samples, not the 70k+ runner All sample?

You have me doing some homework, but unfortunately I only have data for any gear change, not specifically blinkers on or off. I get the point that this may be different for runners priced above expectation because the market has already incorrectly repriced itself. Thinking .... Not willing to play at 1.02 but 1.06 would be gold! Already envious

Looks like there's a definite winning % advantage for blinkers on first time but value taken into account, you'd be better to drop those bets, not invest more on them? I.e., if you removed both blinkers on and off runners from your investments, your ROI would improve?

Try Belmont Race 9 #6 Frosty Linz

I'm sorry to hear that. But on a thread devoted to chucking out some 10/1+ shots, the closest thing Thommo has ever come to that is saying to back the likes of the ones with blinkers on first time, or 4kg claimers on heavy tracks. He never named a single horse pre-race that met those and whatever his other criteria are. He's fine to go on talking to himself on other threads but on this one, it would be nice to see him name a couple before race time. Until he does, I'll keep taking the piss and at least having a bit of fun with the loser.

I think you might be right Newmarket. He certainly bred and raced her. Pretty sure Dave and Jan trained her when she won the 1000 Guineas and later the Stradbroke though. From memory Grant Cooksley and earlier, CWJ had strong associations with her.

No, you should have taken Thommo's advice and gone for the 4kg claim on a H11. Pretty obvious, I would have thought.

Isn't there still a race named after her at Riccarton?

What's even more scary to me is that some others who could be just learning the game also believe it and be quickly led to the poorhouse and probably sports betting, or Lotto where the odds of winning are still better than following Thommo's advice.

So you think that was Kingsman's best performance with the BO?

Nope, I obviously don't think everyone thinks the same. That's my point I think. I like to use whatever information differently from the majority. That's how you find value when the majority interpretation is wrong and causes a price adjustment that makes that horse or other horses better value. I haven't had a bet on NZ racing in 3 or 4 years, not even maidens or amateur events. Track consistency is too unreliable. Haven't been to a NZ race meeting in that time either though I'm planning to go to one next January and may be tempted to have a bet there.

Wait.... so the 5% improvement only applies to a small percentage of the race ... 200m maybe? I'm a big fan of time over distance covered though. Every race I've ever seen was won by the horse that ran the fastest time over the race distance. GPS data would be interesting but if everyone had it, it would probably offer no advantage from a punting perspective, just like everyone knowing a horse has blinkers on doesn't. As to the lotus position, you could try that but if your concurrent contemplations are based on the theories you have so far suggested, I doubt that will turn around your punting performance.

You were more informative when you were coming Diceman than since you have been.

Estimates are not to do with any correlation or I'm not sure what you mean by that. If there's anything that will improve a fit horse by 5% please let me know. That's the difference between a decent maiden and Black Caviar. And no, I don't use sectionals at all. I find them irrelevant, but that's just me.

Which is why I put the chance estimate alongside my Gulfstream tip. It lost but I didn't back it anyway at 7/2. Nor the one that was first time in blinkers or lined up with any of Thommo's other theories.

Be careful though. Thommo would probably say the danger is Towa. Blinkers on.

Have a look at Gulfstream Race 5 #4 Durlyn. No odds yet but about a 20% chance by me.

Long time since I've been to the races in NZ, but if a couple of stipes were rocking up to give an exhibition gallop, that might get me there! Btw, what the hell is a heart vilberation?

That just proves you are a head case.

I thought a Halcyon was a bird, or is it birding days that you are referring to TDB?

Yeahh. Quite impressive trials. Should be close to fit now. Quinella with the blinkers off runner? FO 40s now I see. Might need to find the fast lane though?

And Thommo, how did he know where the fast lane was? The pen readings?

And did I see see people having car parties with BYO?

Magic ride

Oh....they race on dirt there? Was there a fast lane and did the one in the blinkers in the first photo get up?