curious

I don't think he was thinking

Here ya go....

I actually think we agree on that though I don't really care about the company, just the good individual performance. That though, is simply not true. It's the same generalisation and the same error.

Thommo, it's your usual error. You are applying a generalisation about a population (black type performers) to an individual performance. You can't do that. Well you can but it won't generally be helpful. It makes an assumption that could easily be ruled out. Why can't you compare a Trentham straight six to Ellerslie, or any performances on different tracks for that matter? Of course you can. How else could you assess performance if you can't then compare the individual assessments? Have you completed your remedial maths course yet and got your sis to explain the ecological fallacy??

Oops, sorry mardigras. Snap! Thommo will probably now be convinced we are the same person ...lol.

Don't get me started on the handicapping system CS. I agree with you though, having the likes of rote rating penalties for maiden wins is a joke. It's not even really a handicapping system.

Oh really. So are you related to Thommo? He also puts up the winners after the race. Though to be fair he doesn't have a go beforehand like you did.

Oh.....which two? I must have different results than you. I'm going by the NZTAB prices and results. Pak R1-2, $1-50 Won ... $1.30 Pak R3 -12, $2-60 .... unplaced Goul R1-2, $1-75. ....unplaced Or did you mean we should lay them? They also strike me as a bit short for the 10/1 and over thread?

Are you related to Chris Thompson?

Del Mar R6 #8 Avail

And again for Del Mar, R1 is reported as abandoned. R2, an hour away shows a win pool of a massive $16, and there are no FOs available.

Ouch. Glad I didn't go again today. Had to work to replenish the bank. Guess we have some more refinement to do to get this sorted. Might be because we didn't have a heavy track today and couldn't use the 3kg claim factor? The -23/24% ROI is seeming consistent though. I hope it wasn't too windy up there in Northland Wally. The Armourguard van could have blown off the road with so little weight on. At least you would have been able to second a toddler to push the barrow from the back of the tote.

I'd say get on when the blinkers go on and if it has a claim as well add another 20%.

First race at Del Mar less than an hour away. NZTAB showing no odds. Are the bookies having a Sunday sleep in or have they all gone out for brekkie? What gives?

I assume that's because it's down in class from being beaten only 3.5 lengths in a Class1 Listed race 2 starts back, to a Class 2 race? Veered out and covered extra ground last time but Pi wouldn't have helped you allow for that. Might benefit from blinkers?

Yeahhh will still be value on Monday.

Oh and I forgot to mention the 3kg claim ... gold!

I think once we get the Pi factor worked into it, we should be right. By Monday, at least one of those winners, I'm picking Amun Ra, a blind man would have seen. I mean down from finishing less than 4l from the winner in a Group 2 less than 4 years ago, to an R72, plus racing with blinkers on, you could hardly go wrong. I probably should have quit after that one but I was getting excited.

Not a disaster. $1310 back from my $1720 investment. An ROI of -23.8%. Might have just been a bad week.

Delmar R4 #11 Rockantharos Delmar R5 #2 Noble Contessa

I'm thinking if we can get this system a bit more fine tuned we should be able to sell it. Your post gave me an idea barryb. We could call it the TBG system (Thommo's Bloody Guess). He obviously works on weekends to fund his betting account, so he won't know we've stolen it. Of course, we'll need to establish some track record data for marketing purposes but if we place all bets the day after the races, then I think we can come up with something quite impressive for that.

OK. I'll just added 20% to the ones with blinkers on then.

That's not a bad idea barryb. I could get a better estimate of value then too.

Still trying to work this out FTF. Are we supposed to measure the distance travelled by the inside of the horse, the centre or the outside? Because by my calculations the outside will have travelled several meters further than the inside in most cases unless it's a figure 8 course and they do one complete circuit.

OK. The only real way to test this is with real money so I might have a lazy $50 to win on them all and see how we go. I assume I just ignore price?