curious

Will the 3rd leg of 2018 Triple Crown be run in the mud at Belmont? By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist June 06, 2018, 1:37:14 AM EDT This year's Belmont Stakes and 13th quest for horse racing's Triple Crown may be a close call between rain and sunshine. Saturday will mark the 150th running of the Belmont States at Belmont Park, Elmont, Long Island, New York. Following the storm that brought downpours to end the first weekend of June in the New York City area and Belmont Park, the next chance of drenching rain will occur this weekend. Whether or not it pours around race time at 6:37 p.m. EDT, Saturday, June 9, as Justify seeks to become the 13th Triple Crown winner will depend on the speed of the next storm. At this time it appears that heavy, steady rain will hold off until Saturday night or Sunday on Long Island. However, any increase in forward speed of that storm may mean a wet outcome for the race. "There is the chance of a shower popping up ahead of the main storm this coming weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. A boundary between cool air over New England and warm, humid air over the central Appalachians could unleash spotty showers ahead of the main storm along the upper mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday afternoon and evening. "Belmont has a sandy consistency to the track and drains very well," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Thompson. "In order for sloppy conditions to occur for the 2018 Belmont Stakes, it would have to pour right before or during the race," Thompson said. If it manages to pour early Saturday evening, it will end up being soggy for all three legs of the triple crown. Training and running horses in prolonged wet weather can raise the risk of a hoof injury, according to the Horse.com. Jockey Martin Garcia works Triple Crown hopeful Justify at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky., Tuesday, May 29, 2018. (AP Photo/Garry Jones) While some horses, such as Justify, seem to handle the wet weather, other horses may not run as well with mud being splattered in their face. Mud may also increase the risk of a horse slipping. Mud may even out some of the competition but cause other horses to fall well off the pace. Both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were run in the mud in 2018. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the wettest on record with more than 3 inches of rain. Rain fell every day for a weak leading up to and including the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore. The last horse to win the Triple Crown was American Pharoah in 2015. Prior to 2015, there were no Triple Crown winners since the 1970s, when Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977) and Secretariat (1973) won. Secretariat holds the speed record for all of the three Triple Crown races, including the world record on dirt for 1.5 miles set at Belmont. In lieu of any rain on Saturday evening, there should be enough space between rain events to allow the track to drain off on/by Saturday in what should be an exciting race. A repeat of the week-long downpours experienced at Baltimore leading up to the Preakness is not anticipated. High temperatures most days this week will be in the 70s F at Belmont. The warmest day is likely to be on Friday, when temperatures may top 80.

Doubt Justify will lead. Restoring Hope will be the rabbit won't he? Think they'll want the pace on and give him something to run at.

No. I don't think the Princess can read. Thommo certainly can't.

Hmmm....Gronkowski into 12's ....

How can you know what's overs until you know the track conditions? Guess?

"a percentage of their GI Belmont S. earnings" Well meaning, but a bit arrogant isn't it ahead of them actually earning anything from the race?

Can they only afford two sets of goggles for winter racing these days? That said, the fact that some horses may not like being sandblasted during the running is a variable that may be difficult to assess and discourage punters.

Why would you run a quarter horse in a 1 1//2 mile race I wonder?

True. That's what I was thinking. 5% maybe? The money doesn't go to racing though, it goes to Govt in Vic as it should it seems, so very different from what is proposed here. It will get a test in the interim anyway because presumably it can't be effected at least until the end of the "no new taxes" term.

It appears to have been set at 8% and comes into effect in 2019. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/victoria-announces-consumption-tax-for-online-betting/9758116

Not as far as I know but I could be wrong. NSW are also considering this and I think WA has legislated for 15% as well?

I see that Queensland is busy debating the introduction of a Point of Consumption tax (15% probably) similar to that proposed in the NZ bill but opposed by the DIA. I note that both South Australia (15%) and Victoria (8%) have already legislated this. https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/superracing/qld-racing/the-verdict-point-of-consumption-tax-debate-highlights-queensland-racings-dire-need-of-new-funds/news-story/20ee305ecdc38204e8ce23baac0022fa It will be interesting to see how this affects wagering market pricing and turnover and how the NT bookies manage it. Will they price markets differently for customers from no or lower PoC jurisdictions, for example? Might this drive the growth of the offshore bitcoin type anonymous wagering providers? Any thoughts or comments?

His work this morning (Saturday)...

Hofburg in from 7/1 Gronkowski from 69/1 in Vegas. Justify 4-5 Hofburg 4-1 Bravazo 7-1 Vino Rosso 8-1 Tenfold 10-1 Blended Citizen 14-1 Gronkowski 25-1 Noble Indy 33-1 Free Drop Billy 50-1

My reports say that he is "full of himself". Might be either too fresh or OTT?

There's nothing stopping them from running R65s limited to one win horses now, or running R60s or whatever, is there?

Yeahh.... I wouldn't second guess Baffert ...lol. You wouldn't mind having to feed the bugger either eh Freda? Wouldn't mind feeding the work rider with those hands either.

Belmont Stakes odds, contenders, lineup 2018: Horse racing legend makes picks for Justify Triple Crown bid Hank Goldberg called the upset of Smarty Jones at the 2004 Belmont by CBS Sports Staff 2h ago • 3 min read The 2018 Belmont Stakes will be held Saturday, June 9 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. Justify, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is the favorite in the latest Belmont Stakes odds at 4-5 as he looks to become just the second horse since 1978 to win horse racing's Triple Crown. Hofburg, going off at 4-1, and Bravazo, a horse getting 8-1 odds, are the top challengers in this historic race. Before you make any kind of bet or pick on the 2018 Belmont, you need to see what horse racing legend Hammerin' Hank Goldberg has to say. In 2004, if you had put down $300 on his Belmont Stakes picks, you would have cashed for $21,000. The reason Goldberg has been so successful: He goes straight to the source. In 2004, he was all over Birdstone as a 36-1 monster long shot to win the Belmont Stakes over the heavily favored Smarty Jones, who was undefeated like Justify. Goldberg had dinner with Birdstone's trainer, Nick Zito, before the Belmont Stakes at a pizzeria in Queens. "Nick told me Birdstone had been training great," Goldberg said. "He was training off the charts and Nick said the horse would love the Belmont because he had the running style that fit well with the track." The Hammer pounced on the long shot to win and put him on top of his exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets. Birdstone, of course, beat Smarty Jones by one length in one of the most thrilling Triple Crown races ever. Royal Assault -- almost a 30-1 long shot on the Belmont Stakes odds board and also trained by Zito -- finished third, giving the Hammer and his followers monster payouts. Now, he's gearing up for the 2018 Belmont Stakes. A legendary prognosticator and current CBS Sports expert, Goldberg couldn't have been more dead-on about the 2018 Kentucky Derby. He picked Justify to win, saying he excelled in the slop. The result: Justify sloshed to victory over Good Magic in the rain and mud by two-and-a-half lengths. Then, he called Justify repeating at the Preakness despite an injured heel and sloppy conditions -- which is exactly what happened. He also cashed the Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 at Pimlico this year. Now that the 2018 Belmont Stakes lineup is taking shape, Goldberg released his early picks, predictions and exotic bets over at SportsLine. We can tell you Goldberg thinks Justify will be a tired horse as he pursues horse racing's Triple Crown as the Belmont Stakes favorite. "The Preakness took a lot out of Justify," Goldberg told SportsLine. "He was never pushed like he was in that race. His first race was Feb. 18 and he's going to have considerable competition in the Belmont Stakes, much more than he faced in the Preakness." Goldberg is sharing his projected finish position for Justify over at SportsLine. A contender he's impressed with: Hofburg, a horse going off at 4-1 in the updated 2018 Belmont Stakes odds. "Trained by Billy Mott, he's a really good horse," Goldberg told SportsLine. "I thought he'd run well in the Kentucky Derby. He was a wise-guy horse in the Derby. Mott was eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes and he's been training for that. He has the edge in distance. Mott will have this horse ready." Goldberg is also eyeing a long shot who has a big edge in distance, which is exactly what's needed in the Belmont Stakes 2018. He's sharing which horse it is, and his predictions for every Belmont Stakes contender, over at SportsLine. Justify (4-5) Hofburg (4-1) Bravazo (8-1) Vino Rosso (9-1) Tenfold (10-1) Blended Citizen (14-1) Noble Indy (33-1) Free Drop Billy (50-1) Gronkowski (69-1)

"exposed to a possible contamination" ? ....the mind boggles.

A gallop is no more than half-pace. And the breeze was a half mile. They time the furlong after the hands are dropped at the line there. He ran that next furlong in just under 13 seconds. I'd say he's history.

Yeahh...a half mile. He worked his other one 7f. Leave justify too fresh and sharp for 1 1/2 miles I'd say. Lay all day.

That said, in the mean time, a few trainers, quite a few owners, and heaps of punters will depart for greener pastures. Gobder will continue to explain that it's too confusing and too hard to police or prosecute as Thommo has said. The decline of NZ racing will continue. I see on the other channel that in 1952 the Auckland Cup was worth more than the Melbourne Cup. We've come a long way.

I wouldn't go that far but he's probably history as Thommo says and Pikey shouldn't be too far behind.