curious

Yeah... Might be my phone but I don't see the BP market yet? No bet for me on that race anyway.

Sorry for the delay. Working under some difficulty here and as others have said, not much data, but based on a Dead 5, best I can do for now. Might have time for an update tomorrow.

He prepared the fucking thing. Of course he would say it is fine and they are too lazy to check before risking the health and safety of horses and riders. Another case of the crash test dummy approach.

"I’m a serial failure" .... We can see that John but you don't need to advertise it. Why the racing industry would employ a "serial failure" in a key position so they can replicate their previous failures is beyond my comprehension.

No. Why? The market should rule. Are you a leftie looking for more free handouts?

Yes, the BP is well short of a good length to take any wickets.

Maybe Thommo could start a thread on how to win without being restricted, so we all can do it?

A dead duck/wet dream/too many whiskeys? Wasn't mentioned in the Messara report.

Is there such a thing as RITA? Has it been established or is it another racing myth?

That's what you don't lay. But what do you lay?

I don't care who they are "recognised" by. Where is your evidence? Do you not understand the difference?

If you do, then answer my question and prove blinkers makes them go faster.

Yep me too even though I don't routinely do ratings for NZ racing. I'm also away at a wedding most of Friday and Saturday so probably would have to do this Thursday night based on expected track conditions and may not be able to update.

Good idea. ROI would probably be more predictable too. A steady return of 80-85% of turnover.

Good discussion here guys. Some really useful thoughts. I think what Mardi means by patience, Newmarket, is that better pricing and more value can emerge over time. Hence why he rechecks prices several times as the event gets closer. The key point I take from this thread is that the critical ingredient is accurate assessment of chance (at least more accurate than the market), whether you are backing or laying. Then finding suitable pricing to make all bets value at your acceptable margin (or more).

Because it is Sunday and the Princess's day in bed, tomorrow I'll be going with "S" for Silicone.

where was that again?

Oh.... and my princess is not made out of silicone ...

They will no doubt look better tomorrow

sorry Thommo....I do punt here...and successfully... but not much ... < 1 percent of my total punting. Dream on...and keep updating us with your successful punting after the races have been run.

lol...

You still don't get it do you? You continue to lose by assessing "form". Whatever jurisdiction you bet in, the only relevant correlation with chance is ability, not form. If you are clever enough to adjust ability assessment by some kind of luck adjustment, so be it. If you can further adjust it by weight, blinkers etc. good on you. But you lose because you prioritise those adjustments over the fundamental correlation of chance with ability and fitness. We need more like you so the rest of us can make a decent living.

That's the truth ... mardigras' comments..... and Ellis is talking shyte. Front up with some evidence to the contrary DB.

So caveat emptor applied?

oops, that post lost a piece... [59] In his oral submission Dr Molloy drew the Committee’s attention to the NZTR “Advisement to Trainers” issued on 2 November 2018 which warned trainers of the possibility that race day boxes could be contaminated with human medications due to persons urinating in the boxes while on medication. The notice referred to a recent New Zealand case, and that Dr Grierson had confirmed that there had been cases overseas where this had occurred. Dr Molloy said this needed to be considered in the context that two persons not employed by the respondent but who were known to be using the same public stables as the Rae partnership had tested “non-negative” to methamphetamine.