curious

I'd suggest you not put it in anywhere just in case that results in some kind of DNA replication.

Definitely Hamish

Deadset looks like she was trained by CWJ

Has a similar grasp of the English language.

OK Thommo. It's got nothing to do with punting but the thread is about 10/1 winning chances. What are you on? I only care about the relevant info available to punters. That doesn't include the opinion of Pikey or anyone else as much as I might respect them as trainers. The only good they can do is distort the markets. I give up. You are a lost cause.

I'm doing some reading of your brother to see if I can learn how to make my posts more poisonous. That should add to the fun. After all, Thommo is already the best joke on any racing site I've seen.

Why would we ring them? If they could make a living punting, surely they wouldn't be out there at 3 a.m. till after dark risking their lives on or about 500kg animals and picking up shit. If I want training advice I'll ring them. If I want punting advice, I'll ring mardigras or barryb. You've got this dead wrong too. No wonder your punting is crap and you can't post a winner till after the race.

I could argue that's correct but I wouldn't agree that necessarily has anything to do with the "class" of the race, e.g. black type cf. R65. It has to do with the relative performance of horses in one race cf. the next. It's the same type of error to suggest that because it is a black type race, it is a better "class" race than a non-black type one. You need to judge that by the performance of the horse in any given race, not by the title of the race or its status.

Leave the DSM V diagnoses to me thanks. I'm struggling with yours though. Now over 30 items on the differential list including NPD and it just seems to keep growing. Hard to rule anything out.

Yeahh....heard that too. I'm hoping the Messara report will at least raise the integrity issues that are killing wagering investment on NZ racing and that something will be done about it. It's a complete joke but it's not funny.

I just ran a check on my data and number 7 in Race 3 with Blinkers off and tongue tie on with a slow track has a nearly 50% strike rate at Timaru over the last 13 years. So, if you can get anything much over $2, I'd get on and add another 20% for the tongue tie.

Don't you just love hindsight?

Yes, I'd agree with that. I don't think raw strike rate data is of much use in assessing training ability. If used, it needs to be in relation to the individual runners' chances based on ability and fitness. Of course you could argue that continually turning up with horses too slow to win is poor performance but then we don't know that those horses don't have undisclosed ability being hampered by some problem that the trainer is trying to sort out albeit unsuccessfully. Sometimes the only way to test that effectively may be on raceday.

I fail to see what you hope that the report will do. The code body and its member clubs essentially run the game and I don't see how any report or recommendations will change the fact that they've done nothing except waste what money they've had for at least the last decade or so or make them do anything different in the future? Seems like pretty much another waste of time to me and I can't really see any use of the regional development funds being anything but political suicide and if it's only going to new track builds that are probably unsustainable, no help at all. Don't have any hope myself that the Messara report will make an iota of difference to the state of the industry or its future. Will probably just finally kill the virtually useless Racing Amendment Act which is already dead in the water.

Thommo's problem is that he is incapable of understanding that you cannot apply a population statistic (which in the case of the effect of weight he has a mile wrong anyway) to an individual runner. It doesn't matter how you try to explain this, he has proven over and over that he does not have that capability and until he goes back and passes primary school maths you are wasting your time trying to get it through his thick head.

1kg dead weight = 1kg jockey weight = 1 kg horse weight ......doesn't it?

Don't recall him ever advocating for a strike which would have only punished those at the coal face he aimed to help. Do remember a call for some industrial action though but that was more things like delaying horses getting to the birdcage etc. in an attempt to get the leadership to sit down and talk. Maybe I missed something?

I'd be surprised if that is the case. Don't think that is his mission.

Isn't about that long since he was on the TA committee? Or am I hallucinating?

Messara's report can carry no weight unless it actually changes the legislation which currently empowers the NZRB and the codes to run the industry. It's those bodies that need to come up with strategies and reports if any change is to happen in the short term, other than the current one of expending all reserves to sustain stakes.

Sounds like we might be talking about different times Kakama. I'm talking about 6 or 7 years ago. You seem to be referring to the meeting a year or two back.

Do you think that would have helped?

I expect he'll let you know after the race wally.

Yes, Chris and P4P and others tried to tell them. Others of us did a lot of work on that behalf. Fell on deaf ears and what we see and have is the result.

Issue them with handbags ... and they'd still get red carded? https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/sunwolves-forward-ed-quirk-cops-twoweek-ban-for-love-tap-during-super-rugby-loss-to-reds/news-story/1c58ba97d76d14d7379394761ddec505