curious Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 "Weight rise handicappers running in the same class have an advantage" Effect of Weight in Horse Racing Do you believe that weight is an effective tool for controlling the performance of a horse? Do you think a horse going up 10lbs in the weights has less chance of winning today than last time out? Weight is one of the great racing conundrums. How can a few pounds extra on the back of a 1000lb thoroughbred influence its performance? Weight is used to handicap a horses chance of winning. The more successful the horse, the more weight it carries and the less successful it should be in future races. At the other end of the scale poor horses are allowed to carry less weight and should thus be able to compete on a more level playing field. The following tables should shed some light on how much of an effect weight has on a horse. First we will look at the performance of horses carrying more or less weight than their last race, next the performance of the handicapper, and finally the effect on extra weight influences such as overweight, penalties and allowances. Changes In Weight All Turf Runners Win% 108,413 carried more weight, 11,083 won 10.22% 113,231 carried less weight, 9,768 won 8.63% index 1.19 The above table shows the results of 221,644 runners on the turf since 1993. Horses carrying more weight than their last race won 10.22%. Horses carrying less weight than their last race won 8.63%. This means a horse carrying more weight than last time is 1.19 times more likely to win than one that is carrying less. Obviously, this is looking at all turf races and does not take into account horses going up or down in class which will have a bearing on the allocated weight. Turf Runners in Same Class Win% 38,120 carried more weight, 3,925 won 10.30% 40,950 carried less weight, 3,630 won 8.86% index 1.16 The figures are pretty much the same as in all races. Horses carrying more weight than in their last race, which was of the same class, won more than those carrying less. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Handicap LTO Win% 55,031 carried more weight, 5,474 won 9.95% 57,085 carried less weight, 4,217 won 7.39% index 1.35 The above table examines handicap races where the last race was a handicap too. Although the strike rates are lower, the index is bigger indicating that a horse that is rising in the weights is progressing in the right direction. Turf Runners Handicap today, Handicap LTO, Same Class Win% 20,108 carried more weight, 2,092 won 10.40% 22,380 carried less weight, 1,658 won 7.41% index 1.40 Weight rise handicappers running in the same class have an advantage. Turf Runners in Stakes Races Win% 36,323 carried more weight, 4,268 won 11.75% 39,751 carried less weight, 4,665 won 11.74% index 1.00 Weight change in stakes races has no effect. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Stakes LTO Win% 10,155 carried more weight, 1,035 won 10.19% 11,093 carried less weight, 1,412 won 12.73% index 0.80 The above table is the only one where it is an advantage to be carrying less weight. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Handicap LTO, Same Going Win% 6,046 carried more weight, 713 won 11.79% 6,710 carried less weight, 511 won 7.62% index 1.5 In this table we are looking at horses running in handicaps that run on the same going as last time. As higher weighted horses win more on firm ground and less on soft ground we want to be sure that changes in going are not causing spurious results . The weight rise horses have a much bigger advantage when the going is the same. The Handicapper The handicapper has a tough task. He has to allocate a rating for every horse that runs. His task is to assign a rating such that all the runners in a handicap will finish in one big dead heat. This has never happened, and probably never will. The following tables examine his performance over the years and in different race conditions. Each table shows the average winning distance that the winner beat the second placed horse. If the handicapper were to be 100% accurate the figure should be 0 as we would expect to see a dead heat. We will look at all handicap races run on good ground only. This is to ensure the figures are not influenced by soft or firm ground. Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1.7L 1.6L 1.5L 1.3L 1.4L Over the past 5 years the average winning distance the winner beat the second horse has fallen steadily from 1.7 lengths to 1.4 lengths. This can mean one of two things. Either the quality of horses in this country are getting better, or the handicapper is becoming more accurate. We suspect the later. The handicapper is sure to be utilising the advances in technology which enable him to rate faster and more accurately. Like the world record for the 100m sprint, will the average winning distance ever reach zero? Race Class A B C D E F G 1.2L 1.3L 1.4L 1.4L 1.5L 2.0L 2.0L This table shows the average winning distances for each class of race. As the class lowers the winning distance goes up. This could indicate that it is harder for the handicapper to rate lower quality horses, or that at the best races the competition is better. Some speed rating experts say it is indeed harder to win with their ratings in the higher class races as the difference in speed points is minimal, yet in races such as sellers there is a wide difference in ratings. Race Distance Sprints Middle Long 1.3L 1.4L 1.9L The margin for error is greater in longer distances. Ratings experts use a scale to adjust ratings for different distances, e.g. 5lbs=1 length upto a mile, 5lbs=1.5 lengths a mile to 12f etc., It could be flawed. Horse Age 2yo 3yo 4yo 5yo 6yo 7yo+ 1.2L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.5L 1.6L It is always thought that the handicapper underestimates the rating for 2yo's. The above table shows this is clearly not the case. It is 3yo's where the handicapper has the most trouble trying to get an accurate rating. This could be because many horses don't race at 2. The same applies with older horses. They may not have won for a couple of years and their rating may have plummeted too far. Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2.0L 1.8L 1.4L 1.4L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.3L The early part of the season could be affected by soft going which creates bigger winning margins. But there is no evidence of this at the end of the season when it is as likely to have softer going. What we think is happening here is the all weather effect. Horses that have run just before the start of the season hold an edge over horses that have not run since last season. The situation does not settle down until May. Many punters do not bet until then because they want to wait until the form settles down. The handicapper can't do this he has to rate every race. Other Weight Influences Why would a trainer use a jockey that would be overweight? The trainer may be disgruntled when the handicapper raises his horse too steeply but do you see him arguing with the jockey for being a pound or two overweight? Could it be that trainers like to run their horses overweight to disguise form? If the horse runs badly his rating should go down. He can then drop in class (and rise in absolute weight) and enjoy the extra pound or two gain from not being overweight. The following table shows the average distance behind the winner of horses carrying overweight. Overweight 0lbs 1lb 2lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 9lbs+ 11.1L 13.0L 14.9L 15.5L 15.5L 16.0L 16.7L 17.2L 21.2L 21.5L It is clear the more overweight a jockey is the bigger distance it will lose by. Penalty 0lbs 1-4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs+ 11.3L 9.0L 7.2L 6.1L 5.6L It sure is an advantage for a trainer to turn out his recent winner quickly before the rating is reassessed. The bigger the penalty the closer the horse is to the winner. Allowance 0lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 10lbs 11.0L 12.2L 14.8L 11.7L 12.3 12.3L 8.5L 10.3L Overall apprentices are a bad thing. In standard races the only allowances claimed are 3, 5 and 7lbs. Each of these riders lose a 1.2, 0.7, 1.3 lengths more respectively than a professional. We are not saying you should avoid apprentices. You need to spot the best races for them, and you need to catch them when they are 'riding the wave'. This is where they have outclassed their allowance band and are close to dropping down a level e.g. from a 5lb to a 3lb claimer. Note that 4, 6, 8, 10lbs are allowances in Apprentice only races. The apprentices that are claiming 8 and 10lbs (for having only won a few or no races) are good value for their claim. Summary Increasing the weight on a horse will not disadvantage it: it will not slow a horse down. Similarly decreasing a horses weight will not speed it up. Overall weight risers will mostly beat weight fallers. The handicapper is becoming more accurate as the years go by. This is going to make it harder for punters to win in handicap races. Take a close look at penalty carriers. Don't be put off by the weight rise as the bigger the penalty, the closer the horse will be to winners enclosure. Overweight horses should be avoided but taken note of for future races. Article created 10-Feb-01. Stats may have changed since. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Absolutely love the 'get out' mate "stats may have changed since" Yea, 1993 to be exact...on soupy Yankee tracks with weird Yankee 'handicapping' But get this... "Horses who increase in weight have a better chance" No shit... ..did he think they're the ones who'll be 'in form' and that others going down in ratings...could quite possibly be on a downer...and 'out of form' Na, obviously he doesn't think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: ..did he think they're the ones who'll be 'in form' and that others going down in ratings...could quite possibly be on a downer...and 'out of form' So the reduction in weight had no effect because they were "out of form"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I said "quite possibly" The fact remains anywhich way...horses 'in form' are more likely to handle increases in weight.... ...and then you get smart az Jockeys like Lanrny O who used to negate any big weights by... ...RACING HANDIER...he knew Weight makes a difference.. Lets see... ...a highweight rider with fatty deposits named CURIOUS V LARNY O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 So The Gordonian was "out of form" and you obviously didn't back it. Turny did probably because he is a student of individual performance and noticed good value in terms of price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 bottom line from that analysis is that whether they are up in weight or down in weight they are still quite unlikely to win. Just another factor to consider I would say 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 True Reefton. And Thommo I doubt the impact of weight has changed substantially in the last couple of decades since some of us sorted that out from the evidence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: I said "quite possibly" The fact remains anywhich way...horses 'in form' are more likely to handle increases in weight.... ...and then you get smart az Jockeys like Lanrny O who used to negate any big weights by... ...RACING HANDIER...he knew Weight makes a difference.. Lets see... ...a highweight rider with fatty deposits named CURIOUS V LARNY O Never rode a gallop with Larny but a few with highweight riders like CWJ giving 10kgs. Same observations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Interesting - thanks for that Curious. Do you guys factor in weight of a jockey vs. lead bag weight? I've been told it's a factor, but unsure how significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said: Interesting - thanks for that Curious. Do you guys factor in weight of a jockey vs. lead bag weight? I've been told it's a factor, but unsure how significant. From a physics science perspective my personal view is that 5kg of lead dead weight in saddle bags must have a greater impact than 5kg's of live jockey. The latter, if experienced, can shift the centre of gravity relative to the stride of the horse and use weight as an advantage. Surely that is more advantageous than a bunch of lead that doesn't move. I haven't seen any statistical proof supporting my hypothesis but understanding C.O.G. and its shift on moving objects theory would suggest it does have an impact. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 I would have to agree with that. I would like to see the statistics of Lisa Allpress (I think she weighs around 48kg?) riding horses in the realm of 57-59kg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 I think she might be flattered at 48kg! However it does state in the Racing Calendar that she can ride at 48kg. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: So The Gordonian was "out of form" and you obviously didn't back it. Turny did probably because he is a student of individual performance and noticed good value in terms of price. Do you actually listen/watch anything at all on race days...or are you being dragged around Reemers K Mart by the princess? Of course he was 'in form'...3L from the winner albeit in a lower grade...on "unsuitable HOLDING ground" ( trainer's words) 3 days before... the trainer said " yes very happy with the last start on an unsuitable track and I knew it was going to rain so I decided to start" BTW why didn't you demand evidence from Turns about the 5 k claim...who got totally screwed at 24's when 51 was available ...and you think that's good shopping? K Mart it wasn't next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 3 hours ago, curious said: True Reefton. And Thommo I doubt the impact of weight has changed substantially in the last couple of decades since some of us sorted that out from the evidence. Why aren't you addressing your MASSIVE CONTADICTORY position? You can't have it both ways...unless you're an hermaphrodite... Either the Mares 0.5kg makes a difference..as you claim... ...or " weight makes no difference" as you claim Each way all day or whichever way the wind blows is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: Of course he was 'in form'...3L from the winner albeit in a lower grade...on "unsuitable HOLDING ground" ( trainer's words) 3 days before... 3L from the winner in an R82 where the handicapper deemed he should drop 2 rating points. Hardly a pointer to "good form." Maybe the trainer thought that the race was a better option than a "gallop" during the week in training. Hence the "holding" ground excuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: From a physics science perspective my personal view is that 5kg of lead dead weight in saddle bags must have a greater impact than 5kg's of live jockey. The latter, if experienced, can shift the centre of gravity relative to the stride of the horse and use weight as an advantage. Surely that is more advantageous than a bunch of lead that doesn't move. I haven't seen any statistical proof supporting my hypothesis but understanding C.O.G. and its shift on moving objects theory would suggest it does have an impact. This is as accepted in the Industry as the term HOLDING is chef You don't have to have had a COG moment to pop up with this gem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: This is as accepted in the Industry as the term HOLDING is chef You don't have to have had a COG moment to pop up with this gem No both are theories with no statistical data analysis that I've seen to back them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 As for The Gordonian - up in class, 5kg drop in weight back from 2200m to 2000m to 1800m. Yeah na nothing to do with "holding vs loose"....geez I thought you would have been all over it considering the drop in weight and drop in distance. Aren't they two of your theories? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 First time on a loose track with Blinkers this prep, he would have been all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: No both are theories with no statistical data analysis that I've seen to back them up. Yea and Ive got a theory that when I see a hot woman across a crowded room my data goes off the graph...so it's a 'thing' same 'thing' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: As for The Gordonian - up in class, 5kg drop in weight back from 2200m to 2000m to 1800m. Yeah na nothing to do with "holding vs loose"....geez I thought you would have been all over it considering the drop in weight and drop in distance. Aren't they two of your theories? Were you that annoying little runt in class type kid in short pants at primary school? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Thomass said: Were you that annoying little runt in class type kid in short pants at primary school? Na but I'm guessing you were the class talker who failed maths. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 (edited) Curious,I found that a very interesting post. I did trial a system to analyze south island gallops last year, but only had average success with it and shelved it because time v return wasn't good enough.. The ratings of the horses were accurate on tracks with similar track conditions,but the major factor which lead to frustrating results was the very inconsistent performances of some of the south island jockeys.,especially the apprentices. I always thought I needed to factor in weight changes when assessing the fields,but my take on your post is weights are a factor,but are not as important as some may think. I agree with the item you posted when it says different jockeys should have different levels of assessment that need to be combined with the horses assessment. Then you have to factor in draws and the racing patterns of the horses concerned,as for an example a horse with a wide draw that goes back is at more of a disadvantage than a horse with a wide draw that can settle on the pace in my opinion because of the extra distance they will travel. Edited August 14, 2019 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 14, 2019 Author Share Posted August 14, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Thomass said: Why aren't you addressing your MASSIVE CONTADICTORY position? You can't have it both ways...unless you're an hermaphrodite... Either the Mares 0.5kg makes a difference..as you claim... ...or " weight makes no difference" as you claim Each way all day or whichever way the wind blows is it? I'm quite sure that I have never said that weight makes no difference. That's not where you and I disagree. The point of difference is that you seem to think it makes a much larger difference than I do even though you haven't produced a sod of solid data supporting your view. Edited August 14, 2019 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooncoin Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Good rigorous debate here guys and an interesting article Curious. Question: Is the article relevant in Australasia and is there any updated similar information available for racing down under? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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