Reefton Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I just see on FB that the TAB is paying out fixed odds win bettors on Melody Belle for Saturday already. Clearly she is an outstanding horse and highly likely to win Saturday but she is no Winx type certainty is she? Or are they just showing off using industry money? If(and I know it's a big 'if') she was to get beat that is a lot of industry dosh pissed up again the wall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 That's only for Triple Crown bets though? The publicity is worth more than the total payout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, SLB2.0 said: That's only for Triple Crown bets though? The publicity is worth more than the total payout. No idea but the FB ad said they are paying out win bets on her already. If it is some sort of triple crown multi then it is even worse given the higher odds involved And in terms of publicity I cant say it has got them much - the facebook ad is the only publicity I have seen(mind you I don't go onto the TAB website itself too often) Bottom line is she might not win it and they are giving racing industry money away presuming she will. If something else does win it do they say 'oh sorry we have already paid out win bets?' She is not Winx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 They are trying to get the money back into circulation early on the premise that it will be reinvested and by doing so bolster the turnover and they get another go at making a profit. Melody Belle certainly isn't a Winx but then you don't need to be to be dominant in NZ racing at the moment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Do they not realize it is a horse race? Have they never heard of Final Command ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Fred said: Do they not realize it is a horse race? Have they never heard of Final Command ? Final Command???? I remember the horse but can't recall the race. Starcraft better example. Internationally topclass and still got beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Most bookies do this. All the Australian and UK bookies pay out early at some stage. Paddy Power being the most infamous with Tiger Woods vs. Y.E. Yang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said: Most bookies do this. All the Australian and UK bookies pay out early at some stage. Paddy Power being the most infamous with Tiger Woods vs. Y.E. Yang But Paddy Power is in different ownership i.e. responsible to shareholders. Not appropriate for NZ TAB as potential for corrupt practice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, The Centaur said: But Paddy Power is in different ownership i.e. responsible to shareholders. Not appropriate for NZ TAB as potential for corrupt practice. Whats more how do they balance their books? By reducing the odds offered on other runners or even throughout the day to make it up. Even if she wins(admittedly highly likely) there is potential that punters on other winners are paying for the TAB's early call. Either the punters are or the industry is. One certainty is John Allen and his executive team will not be 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxie Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, The Centaur said: But Paddy Power is in different ownership i.e. responsible to shareholders. Not appropriate for NZ TAB as potential for corrupt practice. Funny you should mention the word "corrupt" - there was quite a bit of jungle drum beating about some fraudulent activity at the NZ TAB which was swept under the carpet. Added to that some strange silent job terminations. I hope this new management crew get to the bottom of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashley Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Apart from Melody Belle who is the best mare ive seen since Sunline is this the WORST Group One field ever? If Melody Belle wasn't in it the top pick in the race for Paul Cavie ftrom the TAB would be Athena Baby an 8yo rating 82 horse rated a $151 chance by the Bookmekers and both race form tipsters rate rating 76 horse Atlanta Peach a top four chance If Melody belle doesn't win is this race is in danger of losing G1 status? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 From her perfect draw only bad luck could beat her. Beautiful day here in the Bay after some rain yesterday. By tomorrow the track should come back to a dead 4. Can't wait for a great day's racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jess Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 On 3/10/2019 at 11:17 AM, Chief Stipe said: They are trying to get the money back into circulation early on the premise that it will be reinvested and by doing so bolster the turnover and they get another go at making a profit. That's it in a nutshell I believe - and a bit of publicity drummed up to boot. They know precisely what they will have to pay out - so it's a calculated risk - and more calculated than risk. I wouldn't think they are talking a huge amount of money ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark D Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 How to bankrupt a licence to print money 101 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Interesting that Melody Belle's last 600 was the slowest of the day for the winners. Am I correct in saying that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxie Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said: Interesting that Melody Belle's last 600 was the slowest of the day for the winners. Am I correct in saying that? Wouldn't be surprised. Not wishing to be a negative bastard but her win left me feeling a bit flat which only got worse with the carry-on afterwards. That all seemed a bit hollow and false. The triple crown win - yes she did it - but who did she beat? It wasn't a very good Livamol by any measure. Would she measure up against the best in Australia? I doubt it. The self-promotion, the tears and all the other palarver from Galvin (Fortuna) and Ellis coupled with the syrupy stuff from Trackside and Tony Lee made me think - it was false marketing overkill for an industry that is in its death throes. Whereas the Catalyst win had a look of class about it where he absolutely smashed a reasonable field of 3yr old talent and did it with arrogant ease in good time on that track. The reaction from Rick Williams had class about it as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 The Hastings Triple Crown was established in 1999 and the eight horses who have won two legs in the same year since are Melody Belle (2018 & 2019), Seachange (2006 & 2007), Kawi (2016), Jimmy Choux (2011), Wall Street (2010), Xcellent (2005), Starcraft (2004) and The Message (2000). Is Melody Belle in the same league as Seachange, Jimmy Choux, Wall Street, Xcellent and Starcraft? https://bitofayarn.com/racenews/hastings-triple-crown-history/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 3 hours ago, SLB2.0 said: Interesting that Melody Belle's last 600 was the slowest of the day for the winners. Am I correct in saying that? Well spotted Sunline Boy. Winners last 600m times: Yamuna 0.34.46 Aim Smart (AUS) 0.34.87 True Enough 0.35.26 Pop Star Princess 0.35.41 Catalyst 0.35.57 Stumpy 0.35.64 Beauty Star (AUS) 0.35.67 Swords Drawn (AUS) 0.35.92 Melody Belle 0.36.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 The average performance rating for the field was: 91. Compare that to the year Xcellent won when the average rating was 102! Jimmy Choux 2011 the average was 100. If you remove Melody Belle's rating of 114 from the field the average is 89. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Well spotted Sunline Boy. Winners last 600m times: Yamuna 0.34.46 Aim Smart (AUS) 0.34.87 True Enough 0.35.26 Pop Star Princess 0.35.41 Catalyst 0.35.57 Stumpy 0.35.64 Beauty Star (AUS) 0.35.67 Swords Drawn (AUS) 0.35.92 Melody Belle 0.36.14 Maybe someone can educate me but I'm blowed if I can sea how treating sectional times in isolation is of value. Trainers love saying "my horse ran great sectionals" but what does that mean? Back in April Lord Arthur ran one of the fastest 2100m seen at Ellerslie for 20 years yet his last 600 even though fastest in the race was still slow on the day. His subsequent form prior to breaking down turned out poor. On that logic does that mean Melody Belle's win is of little value form wise and not a positive for the Cox Plate? Must agree some of the over the top "celebrations" after the race are stupid particularly in Australia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, The Centaur said: Maybe someone can educate me but I'm blowed if I can sea how treating sectional times in isolation is of value. Trainers love saying "my horse ran great sectionals" but what does that mean? Back in April Lord Arthur ran one of the fastest 2100m seen at Ellerslie for 20 years yet his last 600 even though fastest in the race was still slow on the day. His subsequent form prior to breaking down turned out poor. On that logic does that mean Melody Belle's win is of little value form wise and not a positive for the Cox Plate? Must agree some of the over the top "celebrations" after the race are stupid particularly in Australia. Compare it with Cox Plate aspirants racing on the day. For example at Randwick - Waller said after Verry Elleegant's win yesterday that she didn't look like she won the way she should have against that field. Now when you look at her last 600m which she ran in 34.8 on a Soft 6 you'd have to say it was a very classy win. Now Melody Belle ran the slowest 600m in winning on the day. It probably says more about the class of the horse she beat than her. She won but could you class the race as a true Grp1 WFA field? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 6, 2019 Author Share Posted October 6, 2019 Her test is coming if she ends up in the Cox Plate is it not? And maybe TAS as well for Te Akau. Is it just me or are Kiwi's a little more competitive in Aussie this year? Horses like Avantage(back in the Autumn), Probabeel, The Bostonian in Brisbane and TAS are highly competitive which has not been the regular pattern, outside of the three year olds in the Autumn, for the last few years. Maybe there is at least some good news for Kiwi racing. Perhaps they are overdoing the focus on English horses over there? The hype is a Te Akau specialty. I loved Mark McNamara as a caller but the reaction after the last Coupland just about made me want to puke! For all that what and when was the last Kiwi trained placegetter or favourite in the Epsom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kihikihi Kid Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 FFS , Melody belle just won the Triple Crown ! Yeh maybe not the best Group 1 field ever but she didn't have it all her own way and had to do a bit of work. Just embrace the win and more importantly remember the people and the horses and staff at the coal face are the ones carrying the flag while the non entities at the top of the chain continue to rake in the millions and squander millions and You We Us as an Industry do nothing , don't take your angst and slow sectionals out on her , aim higher than that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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