Resumption of Racing – Stakes Levels through to the end of the 2019-20 Season

[JJ Flash]

4 minutes ago, Brodie said:

You are taking the piss!,

 

Nope , he actually thinks he is right. A bit like all his other wacky ideas he used to bore old Thomas into submission with. But dont forget he makes a lot of money on the punt especially in UK. For that we should all be eternally grateful

Greg

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Dont waste your time Brodie. Old Neville Wong Mardigras has just done the usual . Move the goal posts but introducing something new which has no bearing on the original statement which is clearly wrong. That

 

 Im pretty sure that a lot of people have no jobs as a result of the lockdown. Neville Mardigras will probably say the stats dept are telling fibs about rising unemployment numbers and that the decline in economic activity/consumption during lock down didn't happen

Leave me out of this clowns stupidity

 

Greg

Diddums - why did you bother posting. 

I don't think the stats are incorrect. I expect massive more job losses. They were inevitable. As was the decline in economic activity.

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Nope , he actually thinks he is right. A bit like all his other wacky ideas he used to bore old Thomas into submission with. But dont forget he makes a lot of money on the punt especially in UK. For that we should all be eternally grateful

Greg

I love my wacky ideas. Thanks. You stick to your doom and gloom. I'll stick with working through things in the best fashion possible.

[Chief Stipe]

12 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Diddums - why did you bother posting. 

I don't think the stats are incorrect. I expect massive more job losses. They were inevitable. As was the decline in economic activity.

I understood the logic with your horse selection system.  By comparison Thomaas's was illogical and irrational.

However I don't understand at all your logic around the "inevitable decline in economic activity."

[Brodie]

34 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Nope , he actually thinks he is right. A bit like all his other wacky ideas he used to bore old Thomas into submission with. But dont forget he makes a lot of money on the punt especially in UK. For that we should all be eternally grateful

Greg

No idea who he is, as I don’t read much on the gallops forum!

I am a bit more worried by his name!,

[JJ Flash]

33 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Diddums - why did you bother posting. 

So that rational visitors to the site dont take any notice of your stupid post which was that lockdown in NZ would have little or no effect on the NZ economy. To quote you

"Who cares - I'm not even interested in the virus. I'm interested in the economic impacts. The lockdown won't have any."

You seem to be confused, you say your interested in economic  impacts but in very next sentence say there wont be any.

Then you say in a following post

33 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I expect massive more job losses. They were inevitable. As was the decline in economic activity.

I will let others decide whose on the right side of this discussion if that's the right adjective

 

Greg

Edited May 7, 2020 by JJ Flash

[mardigras]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

I understood the logic with your horse selection system.  By comparison Thomaas's was illogical and irrational.

However I don't understand at all your logic around the "inevitable decline in economic activity."

What's difficult to understand?

International tourism - one of NZ's biggest sectors. Lockdown has had no impact on international tourism. They would not be coming whether we were in lockdown or not.

Fear - people's spending would become conservative due to fear about what may happen. 

Global impact - the impact to global economies has a massive impact on NZ's economy. Getting goods into the country when their economies are in varying states of lockdown with lower production levels etc

Just a few of the things that were going to create massive declines in jobs, and impact economic activity. There are 100% unrelated to whether NZ was in lockdown or not. And they each flow on into other industries causing widespread downturn economically. Causing further job loss.

Those things affect a high number of industries. Tourism affects tourist operations, travel businesses, transport, hospitality, retail. 

Obtaining goods - pre NZ even having one death, the time to get a decent quantity of IT hardware into NZ had skyrocketed. Business directly impacted by that - both potential new business and ongoing. External economies will directly impact NZ's economy.

Fear - demand for things from many business/hospitality/retail - will suffer due to fear of mixing with people - even in NZ with low numbers - something that prior to the lockdown was an unknown.

And all of the above has already been shown to be the case. As per my example. Sweden under no lockdown. 36,000 jobs lost in March, 14,000 in first 10 days of April. Only a country twice our size. Economic outlook suggesting 15% unemployment soon, and a 10% GDP drop. All with no lockdown. Compare to Finland and Norway, no different - they have been in lockdown.

(and that's not even considering the deaths and serious/critical case numbers in Sweden - if numbers were same per million for NZ, that's only 1500 dead (up to now), and 210 in serious/critical condition - at least your hospitals would be getting use!).

But you can believe what you like. It makes no difference to me, and it likely just makes you get all uptight for no good reason. I'm not going to bother debating it anymore - since clearly it is beyond most people going on about lockdown.

If lockdown was for three months, maybe it would be a significant factor. At this stage, that is unlikely.

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

So that rational visitors to the site dont take any notice of your stupid post which was that lockdown in NZ would have little or no effect on the NZ economy. To quote you

"Who cares - I'm not even interested in the virus. I'm interested in the economic impacts. The lockdown won't have any."

You seem to be confused, you say your interested in economic  impacts but in very next sentence say there wont be any.

Then you say in a following post

I will let others decide whose on the right side of this discussion if that's the right adjective

 

Greg

As I say, you're clearly too thick to even understand simple stuff. I didn't say there would be no impact to the economy. There will be massive impact. It just isn't because of the lockdown. What part of that are you incapable of understanding - even if you disagree. Are you really that stupid? (to help you out there, that is rhetorical)

Edited May 7, 2020 by mardigras

[Basil]

13 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Did they make the decisions based on the right data and data modelling?  I don't think so.  Do a Google Search on Wigram Capital Investments, Rodney Jones, Motu Nz and Dr John McDermott.  Adern referred to their analysis frequently when justifying the lockdown.  It was they who stated 80,000 deaths.  Try googling Rodney Jones and George Soros.  

Hang on Chief, you're shooting the wrong messenger. The Wigram simulations were/are actually relatively sane — they were predicting 4000 cases (if a lockdown hadn't been enacted) at a time when we had about 1100.  Your real target should be the epidemiologists at Otago (and also Imperial College) who were predicting 8000-14000 deaths, based on a scenario where nobody took any remedial actions at all, i.e., no washing of hands, no distancing, no avoiding of crowds etc etc.

The trouble with epidemiologists (and medicine generally) is that they assume people don't respond to information and incentives. John Cochrane is trying to inject some much-needed sanity into this:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/an-sir-model-with-behavior.html

As for Mardigras' contention that the lockdown will have no impact on economic activity, the kindest thing that can be said about it is that it's, well, comical. He appears to have repealed the laws of arithmetic.

[Brodie]

Chief, not sure if I am allowed to, but can I personally state that Mardigras is an absolute fruit loop of the highest order?

Think lockdown has affected him badly, he is all over the place and delusional!

[Happy Sunrise]

I get where Mardigras is coming from.

If the virus was left free to run its course in NZ the economy was going to get hammered.

If the virus was contained by a harsh Level 4 lockdown in NZ the economy was going to get hammered.

I suppose the only debatable point is if there was a middle ground that could have been taken by the government to minimize the impact of the virus and the damage to the economy. Could racing have continued in NZ like it did in Australia?

I think Level 2 is a shame and won't do anything to stop the spread of the virus if it is out there waiting to be spread. We have tried the lockdown method and if the virus returns I think we will find out the impacts of the virus 'left to run its course' scenario.

 

 

[JJ Flash]

14 hours ago, mardigras said:

I'm interested in the economic impacts. The lockdown won't have any.

Followed by

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

I didn't say there would be no impact to the economy.

Edited May 7, 2020 by JJ Flash

[Chief Stipe]

30 minutes ago, mardigras said:

International tourism - one of NZ's biggest sectors. Lockdown has had no impact on international tourism. They would not be coming whether we were in lockdown or not.

 

The Domestic Tourism market is bigger than the International market.  The Domestic Tourism market was locked down.  $18b of the total $29b is Domestic Tourism i.e.  New Zealanders travelling in NZ.

The next biggest source of tourism income is Australia.  Add their $3b and the total is $21b leaving $8b from the rest internationally.

So at worst assuming overseas countries wouldn't have let their citizens travel we would be down $11b.  Our GDP for the year end March 2020 is $310b.

An impact but not as large as you are making out Mardigras.

43 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Fear - people's spending would become conservative due to fear about what may happen. 

 

Subjective at best.  You'd find that market prices would adjust to compensate for reduced demand if indeed that demand declined.

44 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Global impact - the impact to global economies has a massive impact on NZ's economy. Getting goods into the country when their economies are in varying states of lockdown with lower production levels etc

 

New Zealand's largest export earning sector is still Primary Production i.e. produce created by our farmers and horticulturalists.  Perhaps some people might thank that sector now instead of kicking the shyte out of them.  The world still needs to be fed during lockdown.  Food supplies were globally declared "essential items."

So did the lockdown affect the Primary Sector?  Not for unprocessed non value added products.

However locking down businesses that added value did have an economic impact.  Did you read the article about the manufacturer that makes products out of merino wool?  Because of the lockdown they had to send the raw merino wool to China to be processed!!

55 minutes ago, mardigras said:

And all of the above has already been shown to be the case. As per my example. Sweden under no lockdown. 36,000 jobs lost in March, 14,000 in first 10 days of April. Only a country twice our size. Economic outlook suggesting 15% unemployment soon, and a 10% GDP drop. All with no lockdown. Compare to Finland and Norway, no different - they have been in lockdown.

 

You are cherry picking here Mardigras.  Sure Sweden's economy has taken a hit but no where near as bad as Finland or Norway.  What's more they haven't borrowed huge amounts of money to hand out to their citizens.  They still have that ace largely up their sleeve.

Their health system (comparable to ours?) hasn't been over whelmed.  Their hospital occupancy rate is running at 80%.  NZ's has dropped to 50%!!!

If what the epidemiologists and scientists are universally saying is correct then this virus is here to stay.  A vaccine could be up to 18 months away if indeed an effective one can be developed.  Then Sweden have taken a hit early and kept something in reserve. 

What have we done? Mortgaged the country, dropped hospital occupancy to 50%, put businesses under and given cash handouts to all and sundry.  Now the Government is trying to pick winners in the economy!  That's how we have used this grace period of lockdown BEFORE the prime flu and covid-19 season starts.  Has the Government invested in more ICU beds?  Nup.

I could go on and on.....

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Basil said:

Hang on Chief, you're shooting the wrong messenger. The Wigram simulations were/are actually relatively sane — they were predicting 4000 cases (if a lockdown hadn't been enacted) at a time when we had about 1100. 

Wrong Basil.  There are articles and video clips on line where Adern refers to Wigram and an 80,000 death toll and she used that as justification for the lockdown.  I guess Wigram and Motu - "have revised their modelling in the light of more accurate empircal data."

Cough cough - 

[curious]

2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

 Im pretty sure that a lot of people have no jobs as a result of the lockdown.

Because of the lockdown, or because of the impact of the virus on the economy (lockdown or no lockdown)? I think you've got your cause and effect thinking muddled. There's no evidence of that.

[Happy Sunrise]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

The Domestic Tourism market is bigger than the International market.  The Domestic Tourism market was locked down.  $18b of the total $29b is Domestic Tourism i.e.  New Zealanders travelling in NZ

International or domestic doesn't matter.

Nobody would have been travelling domestically anyway.

And if they were, the virus would have exploded across the country, destroying the domestic tourism industry.

It is all screwed either way.

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, Happy Sunrise said:

Nobody would have been travelling domestically anyway.

 

Speculation based on the "fear factor."

1 minute ago, Happy Sunrise said:

And if they were, the virus would have exploded across the country, destroying the domestic tourism industry.

 

What if it had "exploded"? 

 

[Happy Sunrise]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

Speculation based on the "fear factor."

Speculation?

So if people are catching the virus anywhere and everywhere you still think people are going to go on holiday to Queenstown or Auckland with the kids in the back seat? Or Gramps and Gran are going to away to Taupo for a weekend?

 

 

[Happy Sunrise]

16 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

What have we done? Mortgaged the country, dropped hospital occupancy to 50%, put businesses under and given cash handouts to all and sundry.  Now the Government is trying to pick winners in the economy!  That's how we have used this grace period of lockdown BEFORE the prime flu and covid-19 season starts. 

What would you have done if you were PM?

[Yankiwi]

Resumption of Racing – Stakes Levels through to the end of the 2019-20 Season....

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

So if people are catching the virus anywhere and everywhere you still think people are going to go on holiday to Queenstown or Auckland with the kids in the back seat? Or Gramps and Gran are going to away to Taupo for a weekend?

 

LOL they tried to do that during Lockdown but were illegally turned back!!

Grandpa and Grandma might not have travelled if they were vulnerable due to pre-existing conditions.  But they tend to go on overseas cruises anyway rather than bungy jumping in Taupo!

I bet my last dollar that there have been more than 1,489 cases of Covid-19 in the community.  But we don't test for that.

[Happy Sunrise]

2 minutes ago, Yankiwi said:

Resumption of Racing – Stakes Levels through to the end of the 2019-20 Season....

Solving the World instead.

Easier than getting stakes up again.

[Happy Sunrise]

20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I bet my last dollar that there have been more than 1,489 cases of Covid-19 in the community.  But we don't test for that

So the virus is in the community waiting to be shared again?

[curious]

19 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

LOL they tried to do that during Lockdown but were illegally turned back!!

I think that remains questionable based on interpretation of 60 year old legislation which probably didn't anticipate something like the current scenario.

[mardigras]

52 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I could go on and on.....

And you probably will. There is no point debating the topic with you - since you claim all this stuff is subjective.

And so is everything you write - since you are comparing what has happened to what it was like before. Without any ability to know what it would have been like under different circumstances. 100% subjective as to what the difference would have been. I'll let you carry on moaning (since there is nothing you can do about it), whilst I enjoy a nice glass of wine and a bit of a break from my normal travels.

Edited May 7, 2020 by mardigras