Stakes

[Joe Bloggs]

Note I said if Chief, but let's look at a hypothetical, years back I was asked to source a stallion for Malaysia, they were trying to establish a 'National Stud' there, corrupt as it was, so with a letter of authority and proxy I offered them 'Caboul'......if you remember him he was an outstanding 2yo here in the 70's.

They failed, too many personal agenda's, ego's etc......sound familiar?.....anyways, China, as corrupt as it is, could quite easily start their own National Stud, and of course use the expertise of many 'friends of China'......now, depending which Gov is in power and the state of the world in say 5 years or so, AUS and NZ could quite easily be cut out of the loop especially if there are trade embargoes in place, and in our case here, they are already.

There are so many Chinese working in racing stables and studs all over the world, so many Chinese owned studs here in Oz too, so, if they start making their own, they wont need us, or anybody as with one and half billion people, who needs anyone else?

They are doing it in India, their next door neighbour, very successfully too, albeit on a domestic stage, but again, if China is offside with USA and most of the large trading partners and the South China Sea becomes their playground and very dangerous for intruders, and if they take Taiwan, and they have said they will.........Kiwi mares and Kiwi racehorses will be the last thing on the minds of these people, Hong Kong is on borrowed time, this will all hit the fan, and racing is gone very quickly.

Our next door neighbour and friend is a Qantas captain, his main routing was to HK which he loved, but he says he doesn't miss it a bit now, he says HK is gone, in 10 years and I trust his judgement as he knows the machinations of the place.

Anyway, that's my take, I hope I'm wrong, there will be massive mortgagee auctions over there if I'm not Chief, and a lot of Range Rovers on trademe!

[Chief Stipe]

21 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

They are doing it in India, their next door neighbour, very successfully too, albeit on a domestic stage, but again, if China is offside with USA and most of the large trading partners and the South China Sea becomes their playground and very dangerous for intruders, and if they take Taiwan, and they have said they will.........Kiwi mares and Kiwi racehorses will be the last thing on the minds of these people, Hong Kong is on borrowed time, this will all hit the fan, and racing is gone very quickly.

 

I think you are missing my point.  For a start China won't "close down" Hong Kong full stop.  Strategically for business and defence it is far too important.

With regard to racing - can't see them closing that down either.  As I said they have continued to invest in training and racing tracks.  The new complex on the mainland at Conghua, Guandong province is something to behold.  A $720 million NZD joint investment between HKJC and the mainland.  The picture below is BEFORE the public stands were build.  Note the straight training track out to the right?

The only threat I can see is the depletion of our racing stocks and the provision of a higher class betting product than NZ can ever produce.  The only thing that they would struggle to replicate is our breeding industry and why bother doing that when you can just pitch up with a pocket of small change and buy horses after all the work has been done?

The turf track is 10 furlongs in circumference – against Sha Tin’s nine furlongs - while there are two All-Weather tracks on its inside, one of nearly nine furlongs round and the other a mile. There is also an uphill grass gallop of five and a half furlongs.

[Chief Stipe]

Further to Conghua - I don't know any NZ trainer that wouldn't weep when told that Conghua has a 1,100m uphill straight Strathayr type track!  Imagine that to train on let alone race on!

Which gets me back to one of my pet topics.  Why the hell are we building 3 All Weather Tracks in land-locked locations?

Riccarton is the one that really bugs me - surely their assets are such that they could purchase a large block of land say on Macleans Island and build some decent assets.  You wouldn't need to spend $700m but spending $20m on an AWT at Riccarton is just nuts when you have limited ability to increase the number of horses being trained there.

[Chief Stipe]

[Joe Bloggs]

I love your enthusiasm Chief, and I agree they will never close HK for defence reasons, but you must be mad to think China will need anyone but themselves, they have nailed their colours to the wall already, have you missed the signs? HK has been taken, it's going though a dangerous period. If you put your eggs in that basket, good luck, just because they have built all this infrastructure doesn't mean NZ and AUS are seen as long term partners.

The Chinese will chew and spit, they eat horse meat you know, that's where the slow ones go, sate and Beijing boilup, but once they start breeding themselves, horses I mean, the export industry from NZ is rooted, and as there is no export tax as it stands, you think the Gov will give a toss?

I've lived in ASIA, not holidayed but lived there, whilst SING will keep going, until either Rocket Man [not the horse] or Xi, the megalomaniac decides SING will be absorbed into that wonderful communist regime China has the capability to be totally self sufficient.

They own most of the dairy farms in Tasmania now, and how much of NZ........so, IMO the time is coming when those race courses you show will be full of locals cheering on local bred, local trained and ridden, horses that will be bred for racing/breeding and eating, as in fact Mongolia has worked for a thousand years.

As a byline, ScoMo has advised all Aussies in HK to, pack up, and get out, come home!.........David Hayes will rue the day, the lucky one is John Moore

Cheers.

[Chief Stipe]

Sorry I can't see your point.

Hong Kong racing won't be going anywhere.  I don't see the HKJC model changing anytime soon.  

What may change is that the HKJC may race more at Chongua than Sha Tin or Happy Valley.  Indeed that's one of the reasons why they built it to take pressure off HK so they can proceed with infrastructure repairs.

But if you see a city of 8m and a important hub for China closing down then you are mistaken.

[Joe Bloggs]

My point? HK is gone as we know it, racing will continue for a while longer, but HK is now governed by Beijing Chief, do you not watch the news.

You obviously know more than my neighbour, a QF Captain, who's spent half his life in HK.........We in Oz are getting ready to receive thousands of Hong Kongers, do you not know that Beijing has put sanctions on Britain now, the sanctions on us are getting larger every day, and if Adern punts Huawei [or has she already] who's to say Beijing will hit you all with massive sanctions?

It's only a hair's breath away, I've heard on the Waikato bush radio that there are a number of agents from HK over there now buying up big.....is this because they know what's coming? or are you now the lucky country? Friends Of China? FOC in other words.......cmon chief, you're smarter than that, I'm guessing you've got a good one for sale and looking for a sale to HK.

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

My point? HK is gone as we know it, racing will continue for a while longer, but HK is now governed by Beijing Chief, do you not watch the news.

You obviously know more than my neighbour, a QF Captain, who's spent half his life in HK.........We in Oz are getting ready to receive thousands of Hong Kongers, do you not know that Beijing has put sanctions on Britain now, the sanctions on us are getting larger every day, and if Adern punts Huawei [or has she already] who's to say Beijing will hit you all with massive sanctions?

It's only a hair's breath away, I've heard on the Waikato bush radio that there are a number of agents from HK over there now buying up big.....is this because they know what's coming? or are you now the lucky country? Friends Of China? FOC in other words.......cmon chief, you're smarter than that, I'm guessing you've got a good one for sale and looking for a sale to HK.

I disagree.  China has been under Chinese control since 1997.

The issue that it seems you are eluding to is the recent change in law.  Which certain nations are using to flex their muscles at China namely the USA, UK and Australia.  It seems at this stage only the UK are looking at offering opportunities for HK citizens to relocate.  Commonwealth nations did the same thing in 1989 (Tiananmen Square) and 1997.

Hong Kong survived.  There will be some flight again but China has more than enough people to pick up the slack.

Now you can get all xenophobic if you wish but if it comes down to a trade war then I know who I'd put my money on.

I lot of the noise we are seeing at the moment is nations deflecting the blame for their abysmal Covid-19 management.  It's about the only Trump card Trump can use.

[Chief Stipe]

From a racing perspective there will be no change.  The CCP would not have approved the Chongua, Guandong investment otherwise.

[Joe Bloggs]

Do you know China is putting pressure on several Pasifika nations Chief? Do you know the story behind Tonga and their sole airplane, the sad state of affairs up in Vanuatu and the bullying and cajoling of The Solomon Islands? God knows who and what else the Chinese are putting the heavies on.......what happens when and if they call in their debt with these poor buggers?

China is dangerous and you may think GB is the only nation to offer sanctuary to the Hong Kongers, but AUS was first to offer them 5 year visa's with options.......has NZ?

As for no change to racing there? a local jock told me recently that several of the jocks stationed up there have been looking at exit paths, but I can't explain to you how nervous many are up there, are you flying up shortly to take in the sights, sounds, smells? It's a vastly different HK than when I was first there in 1976........your minds made up, so I give in.

[Joe Bloggs]

Have you seen the interview on BBC World with the Chinese Ambassador to Britain? and the terrible treatment of the UIGHURS? The Ambassador was caught out, xenophobic? anyone who supports that stinking joint is appalling. What has and is happening to the Hong Kongers is sickening and I hope China cops some justice, Trump wont dish it out, so it might take good old Mother Nature.

[Freda]

Conghua looks an amazing complex....but the dragon is flexing its muscles like never before.  Trust it at your peril.

[Chief Stipe]

My point is nothing has changed inside China.  What has changed is Trump started a Trade War by poking the Panda.  You can list a litany of things that the rest of the world dislikes but that have been going on for decades.

It isn't new.

[Chief Stipe]

12 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Do you know China is putting pressure on several Pasifika nations Chief? Do you know the story behind Tonga and their sole airplane, the sad state of affairs up in Vanuatu and the bullying and cajoling of The Solomon Islands? God knows who and what else the Chinese are putting the heavies on.......what happens when and if they call in their debt with these poor buggers?

Again this has been going on for decades.  What have Tonga's "friends" done except idly sit by and watch?

12 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

As for no change to racing there? a local jock told me recently that several of the jocks stationed up there have been looking at exit paths, but I can't explain to you how nervous many are up there, are you flying up shortly to take in the sights, sounds,

So what's your point?  Are they scared of China or the uncertainty caused by the protests supposedly in the name of democracy?

Quite frankly the opinions of a retiring QF Captain and a few jock's aren't exactly overwhelming evidence that Hong Kong racing is going to collapse.

[Weasel]

5 hours ago, Freda said:

Conghua looks an amazing complex....but the dragon is flexing its muscles like never before.  Trust it at your peril.

and if Western cultures don't flex back China will see that as weakness and take a little bit more land/influence somewhere else

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, Weasel said:

and if Western cultures don't flex back China will see that as weakness and take a little bit more land/influence somewhere else

All true.  Unfortunately one of the key players in the ebb and flow is an idiot.

[Weasel]

59 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

All true.  Unfortunately one of the key players in the ebb and flow is an idiot.

an idiot who will be gone by lunchtime one day in November (or mebbe the following January)

[Chief Stipe]

Back to Stakes....well Hong Kong for a start.

Hong Kong last year had a Turnover of NZD$49.5 billion.

Revenue was NZD$7.4 billion

They paid NZD$4.6 billion in duty.  The HKJC provides 12% of the Hong Kong Governments revenue.

The net surplus after taxation was NZD$415 million.

Stakes (got there eventually) - wait for it......pause....... NZD$260 million.

[Chief Stipe]

NOTE:  the HKJC also paid taxes AND duty.  

 

[SLB2.0]

That's racing only twice a week and not year round as well!

[Chief Stipe]

18 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

That's racing only twice a week and not year round as well!

Yep they give their tracks a decent rest during the typhoon season.  We race on ours or close down decent winter tracks for good.

[Freda]

Back to stakes....they look pretty good considering the free starts are still in place ( so far...,)   But is this model likely to be sustainable?

Edited July 21, 2020 by Freda

[Joe Bloggs]

I don't think they are Freda, but all I ask is they show true accountability and corporate responsibility and show us all how they can offer/confirm these stakes, on what basis? where is the revenue coming from? if they can, well credit where it's due, if they can't, then they are lying again and embracing deceitful and misleading behaviour........sound familiar.

If the stakes are based on a government grant/hand-out, then tell us, don't create a culture of mistrust, oh that's right, the mistrust is already there, so, do away with that, and show everyone your projections, and how they are founded.

[Noodlum]

I see where NZTR have said publicly that they can absorb the $1.7m in noms/acceptance fees because there will BE LESS RACES THIS SEASON.

Which supports the theory that the only way they can continue with the same stakes structure is by reducing the number of races.  Which means less money distributed to the masses.

However that will still be skewed towards the elite.  

[Freda]

32 minutes ago, Noodlum said:

I see where NZTR have said publicly that they can absorb the $1.7m in noms/acceptance fees because there will BE LESS RACES THIS SEASON.

Which supports the theory that the only way they can continue with the same stakes structure is by reducing the number of races.  Which means less money distributed to the masses.

However that will still be skewed towards the elite.  

I fear you are right.     The nom/acc fees removal is a huge benefit to owners for all that, far too long coming and hopefully maintained.

But a few hundred k off the top would make things a lot more sustainable.