NZ Cup Odds

[mikeynz]

2 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

You operate on a different level to most people. If you interpret it as disdain and envy you do so.

If you look at my third post, I ask if Self Assured was a good bet a 1.90. Why don't you ask that instead of seeing things I am not saying.

Then for some unknown reason you liked a post of him, then changed your tune to envy after I said about opening a book of All Stars versus the rest. Have a look at the odds of the market! The All Stars dominant, it is nearly a given they will win the race again this year. I asked on another thread if Copy That was the only threat but no one really replied to that.

This is what I am saying. I won't apologize for not finding 3 year old and open class domination by the All Stars uninteresting. I have often said on BOAY I admire the standard of excellence by the All Stars (some just choose to not remember things or are thick) but I don't find it appealing to watch and I believe it is detrimental to the interests of the game. 

Many will just drift away in interest and with horses too over time.

[Happy Sunrise]

5 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Oreti Beach is in Southland. 

Kirstin Barclay & Tank Ellis have a very special horse. 

 

When is he racing again?

That horse has a mountain to climb to win the NZ Cup. He is an unsound 7 year old who hasn't raced for a year due to injury and he is up against the All Stars.

One would have to have a lot of faith or very deep pockets to take the 17FF on offer at the moment. 

[Rusty]

5 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

True but will or would he match th 8 or 9 all stars runners?

Not saying it would be easy, no Cup win is, unless your Lazarus, but UMC would have more than a runner's chance, if he stays sound. Put it this way, they will all know he is there, if he gets a run. 

[Rusty]

Just now, Happy Sunrise said:

When is he racing again?

That horse has a mountain to climb to win the NZ Cup. He is an unsound 7 year old who hasn't raced for a year due to injury and he is up against the All Stars.

One would have to have a lot of faith or very deep pockets to take the 17FF on offer at the moment. 

The 17s for UMC and for that matter, the whole market is all too ridiculously short. 

Reports outta the camp in late June were promising.

[Happy Sunrise]

Just now, Rusty said:

The 17s for UMC and for that matter, the whole market is all too ridiculously short. 

Reports outta the camp in late June were promising.

If he won the NZ Cup this year it would rate as the 'biggest' victory in my time of following harness racing without a shadow of a doubt.

[mikeynz]

Racing today is a far cry from the  days when Forbury use to have open class races in October that sometimes had a full field ,no wonder why in recent times the club has declined,all you get now is a handful in the top races leading up to the cup,its just not the same nowadays.

[Basil]

23 hours ago, whiplash smile said:

If you are so naive that this has to be explained to you then as H.T.P would say:  save your two bucks!

So you have no answer then?

Instead of relying on envy and prejudice, let's try focusing on some facts. One robust indicator of 'competitiveness' is time, since uncompetitive races are typically characterised by walk-round-and-sprint-home. Over the last 6 years (all won by All Stars), the average winning time in the Cup has been 3.55. Over the prior 6 years (none won by All Stars), the corresponding figure was 3.59. Four smegging seconds!  Or about 50 metres!

So don't try and tell anybody with a functioning brain stem that the period of All Stars domination has coincided with less competitive Cups — the evidence suggests exactly the opposite.

[Basil]

12 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

 

This is what I am saying. I won't apologize for not finding 3 year old and open class domination by the All Stars uninteresting. I have often said on BOAY I admire the standard of excellence by the All Stars (some just choose to not remember things or are thick) but I don't find it appealing to watch and I believe it is detrimental to the interests of the game. 

Each to his own, but I don't agree. Distance races at the track have long been completely dominated by the Kenyans (with the occasional interference of Ethiopians), but few have claimed that detracts from their competitiveness or the spectacle they provide.

What matters is the standard and preparation of the horseflesh — who provides that preparation is, imho, largely immaterial.

[hunterthepunter]

3 hours ago, Basil said:

So you have no answer then?

 Over the last 6 years (all won by All Stars), 

so what do you put that result down to basil?? working long hours or better petrol???

[JJ Flash]

On 8/08/2020 at 9:30 AM, Basil said:

I don't really follow the logic of this Happy. Non-competitive between stables, perhaps. But it's no less competitive between horses just because most of the contenders are in one stable. Indeed, it's probably more competitive because said contenders have had a similar (high) level of preparation.

Or do you have some info on who the pre-ordained winner is?  if so, please share! (can't remember the last time I cleaned up on a cup winner...)

Love it Basil , your on the money again but your probably wasting your time saying what you do🤢

 

Greg

Edited August 9, 2020 by JJ Flash

[JJ Flash]

20 hours ago, Brodie said:

Personally just can not be bothered going on course at the moment as there is absolutely no reason to.

The atmosphere is just not there anymore as people choose to vote with their feet!

And its the same globally where Harness is concerned Brodie. Not even a lot of the owners bother  to attend so why should you when you get superb trackside coverage from the comfort of home or the local. Just my thoughts.

 

Greg

[Brodie]

3 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

And its the same globally where Harness is concerned Brodie. Not even a lot of the owners bother  to attend so why should you when you get superb trackside coverage from the comfort of home or the local. Just my thoughts.

 

Greg

Greg, you are right, went to the Meadowlands several years ago, and most of the small crowd wasnt even watching the racing!

Was very boring racing though, all miles, and we all know that is crap racing!!

[JJ Flash]

5 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Greg, you are right, went to the Meadowlands several years ago, and most of the small crowd wasnt even watching the racing!

Was very boring racing though, all miles, and we all know that is crap racing!!

Thanks Brodie as you recognize that  other points of views and opinions are just as valuable as your own. You mentioned Meadowlands and i could say the same about Red Mile crowd. The latter has a casino which seemed to be doing ok ,sound familiar?

 

Greg

Edited August 9, 2020 by JJ Flash

[Brodie]

27 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Thanks Brodie as you recognize that  other points of views and opinions are just as valuable as your own. You mentioned Meadowlands and i could say the same about Red Mile crowd. The latter has a casino which seemed to be doing ok ,sound familiar?

 

Greg

Yeah the meadowlands had a Casino which is probably  what helped keep the track going.

It was a weird Casino as they Really only had the electronic machines playing the games for some reason, probably less Wages to pay.

They have away crap prizes to everyone that signed in and played lol.

Greg,, by the wAy, I do recognize that people do have alternative opinions to myself, even if they arent correct!

Edited August 9, 2020 by Brodie

[whiplash smile]

8 hours ago, Basil said:

 

So don't try and tell anybody with a functioning brain stem that the period of All Stars domination has coincided with less competitive Cups — the evidence suggests exactly the opposite.

Its not that they are going too slow,   its that they are going too fast!  When they pour the gas on after cosy trips, its over!

Your evidence actually suggests the opposite to what you are saying!!!

[hunterthepunter]

5 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

And its the same globally where Harness is concerned Brodie. Not even a lot of the owners bother  to attend so why should you when you get superb trackside coverage from the comfort of home or the local. Just my thoughts.

 

Greg

rubbish Birdsville racers in the middle of no where  and thousands turn up 

[mikeynz]

1 hour ago, hunterthepunter said:

rubbish Birdsville racers in the middle of no where  and thousands turn up 

Maybe those races in oz you talk about are a community event where everyone goes,a lot of our once a year events at courses are closing down,is that good,ask yaself.

[Basil]

15 hours ago, whiplash smile said:

Its not that they are going too slow,   its that they are going too fast!  When they pour the gas on after cosy trips, its over!

Your evidence actually suggests the opposite to what you are saying!!!

Facts are such inconvenient things, aren't they — trying to refute them causes all logic to fly out the window.

Anyway, it really comes down to this — would you prefer a Cup field with 10 top-line racehorses all from the same stable or one with 15 hacks and 2nd-raters all from different stables? Apparently, you'd opt for the latter. Fair enough, everybody is different and has different priorities, but to me that's small-town thinking (like the Aussie rugby journalist who claimed that super rugby oz was superior to its NZ counterpart because it had more close games, conveniently overlooking the fact that they were close because they were basically cripple fights). Personally, I'd go for the former every time — what matters in *horse* racing is the quality of the horses, not the identity of their connections.

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Basil said:

Facts are such inconvenient things, aren't they — trying to refute them causes all logic to fly out the window.

Anyway, it really comes down to this — would you prefer a Cup field with 10 top-line racehorses all from the same stable or one with 15 hacks and 2nd-raters all from different stables? Apparently, you'd opt for the latter. Fair enough, everybody is different and has different priorities, but to me that's small-town thinking (like the Aussie rugby journalist who claimed that super rugby oz was superior to its NZ counterpart because it had more close games, conveniently overlooking the fact that they were close because they were basically cripple fights). Personally, I'd go for the former every time — what matters in *horse* racing is the quality of the horses, not the identity of their connections.

Basil, you are entitled to your opinion.

Yes we all have had it rammed down our throats how great the AllStars are, and how every other stable in the country needs to up its game!

However the NZ Cup has become less and less interesting in recent years due to the domination!

This year even moreso as we wont be getting as much of the Michael Guerin and Craig Thompson wanking on about it!

Yes we need to have prestigious races and yes we need cup day, so that we can get plenty of income off the hospitality!

Yes it will be a boring race, and yes the standing start will be a mess, but what we need  is more people betting iNto the races!

Will harness racing attract more people into it, the way it is currently going?

Not on your nelly, Basil!!!!

The current decision makers in many of the sectors just have their own  agendas, and this is crippling the industry!!!!!!!!
 

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Brodie

[Basil]

On 10/08/2020 at 10:59 AM, Brodie said:

Basil, you are entitled to your opinion.

Yes we all have had it rammed down our throats how great the AllStars are, and how every other stable in the country needs to up its game!

However the NZ Cup has become less and less interesting in recent years due to the domination!

This year even moreso as we wont be getting as much of the Michael Guerin and Craig Thompson wanking on about it!

Yes we need to have prestigious races and yes we need cup day, so that we can get plenty of income off the hospitality!

Yes it will be a boring race, and yes the standing start will be a mess, but what we need  is more people betting iNto the races!

Will harness racing attract more people into it, the way it is currently going?

Not on your nelly, Basil!!!!

The current decision makers in many of the sectors just have their own  agendas, and this is crippling the industry!!!!!!!!
 

 

I agree that harness racing (NZ racing generally) is locked in a downwards spiral. But your proposed solutions:

• get rid of the All Stars;

• allow horse-bashing;

• force the TAB to take any and all bets, regardless of potential losses;

• sack everybody earning more than $50K/year at NZR, HRNZ and the TAB;

• whitewash all transgressions by trainers and drivers who aren't part of the All Stars;

• ban all journalists who report these transgressions

seem unlikely to help very much. Actually, at the risk of provoking further howls of outrage, I'd go so far as to suggest they'd make things worse. Much worse.

Humility is a virtue, so I don't profess to know what would improve things. It's quite possible that nothing would, and that NZ racing is irrevocably doomed. But a good start would be to privatise the TAB and allowed unfettered competition in that market. It might not rescue racing, and it probably wouldn't solve your 'access' problems, but it would at least get the taxpayer off the hook. 

 

 

 

[hunterthepunter]

42 minutes ago, Basil said:

I agree that harness racing (NZ racing generally) is locked in a downwards spiral. But your proposed solutions:

• get rid of the All Stars;

• allow horse-bashing;

• force the TAB to take any and all bets, regardless of potential losses;

• sack everybody earning more than $50K/year at NZR, HRNZ and the TAB;

• whitewash all transgressions by trainers and drivers who aren't part of the All Stars;

• ban all journalists who report these transgressions

seem unlikely to help very much. Actually, at the risk of provoking further howls of outrage, I'd go so far as to suggest they'd make things worse. Much worse.

Humility is a virtue, so I don't profess to know what would improve things. It's quite possible that nothing would, and that NZ racing is irrevocably doomed. But a good start would be to privatise the TAB and allowed unfettered competition in that market. It might not rescue racing, and it probably wouldn't solve your 'access' problems, but it would at least get the taxpayer off the hook. 

 

 

 

get rid of all dead wood could be good start 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Basil said:

I agree that harness racing (NZ racing generally) is locked in a downwards spiral. But your proposed solutions:

• get rid of the All Stars;

• allow horse-bashing;

• force the TAB to take any and all bets, regardless of potential losses;

• sack everybody earning more than $50K/year at NZR, HRNZ and the TAB;

• whitewash all transgressions by trainers and drivers who aren't part of the All Stars;

• ban all journalists who report these transgressions

seem unlikely to help very much. Actually, at the risk of provoking further howls of outrage, I'd go so far as to suggest they'd make things worse. Much worse.

Humility is a virtue, so I don't profess to know what would improve things. It's quite possible that nothing would, and that NZ racing is irrevocably doomed. But a good start would be to privatise the TAB and allowed unfettered competition in that market. It might not rescue racing, and it probably wouldn't solve your 'access' problems, but it would at least get the taxpayer off the hook. 

 

 

 

Basil, bit over the top, but yes you do have some good ideas there.

Dont condone horse bashing!

Treat everyone ad innocent until they can prove people guilty!

Stop persecuting people  that need help rather than destructing!

Encourage punting rather than try and eradicate!

[whiplash smile]

1 hour ago, Basil said:

I agree that harness racing (NZ racing generally) is locked in a downwards spiral. But your proposed solutions:

• get rid of the All Stars;

• allow horse-bashing;

• force the TAB to take any and all bets, regardless of potential losses;

• sack everybody earning more than $50K/year at NZR, HRNZ and the TAB;

• whitewash all transgressions by trainers and drivers who aren't part of the All Stars;

• ban all journalists who report these transgressions

seem unlikely to help very much. Actually, at the risk of provoking further howls of outrage, I'd go so far as to suggest they'd make things worse. Much worse.

Humility is a virtue, so I don't profess to know what would improve things. It's quite possible that nothing would, and that NZ racing is irrevocably doomed. But a good start would be to privatise the TAB and allowed unfettered competition in that market. It might not rescue racing, and it probably wouldn't solve your 'access' problems, but it would at least get the taxpayer off the hook. 

 

 

 

so no solutions there!   just commenting on how everyone else's opinion is wrong as usual, does that post have a point?

[whiplash smile]

You need punters!     Without them NOTHING WORKS!!!   TAB treats customers poorly with odds and regulations and service,

 

Fix this first cause you cant fix anything else without the cash that you will get off them,  dont restrict!!!                              Imagine a casino that restricted every major winner!

Get a bookie who knows what hes doing!!!

All major fixed odds should be able to be leveraged against some other investments surely!

Bonus one quaddie!!!  Every meeting,     Reduce the takeout, $50k, they used to to do the $40k ones easily!

Ditch P6 unless again guaranteed $50k, The quaddie quite often pays more than the p6 cause the pools are too low!

A friday/saturday  Bonus turbo quaddie 50k, These things work and then they stop them for no reason.

 

 

[Basil]

18 hours ago, whiplash smile said:

so no solutions there!   just commenting on how everyone else's opinion is wrong as usual, does that post have a point?

Whoosh!  I'm guessing comprehension wasn't your strongest subject at school WS, but perhaps you should try reading what I said again. You never know — a little light might penetrate the gloom...

The funny thing is that your list of detailed suggestions for the TAB would, if they were sustainable, follow automatically from my privatisation suggestion. So I guess we kind of agree, but differ on how it might be best achieved (micro-management rarely works).