Victoria Derby 2021: Great Betting Race!

[Chief Stipe]

Group 1 RacingVictoria Derby

Pros and cons for every Victoria Derby runner

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – OCTOBER 16: Jye McNeil riding Gunstock winning race 5, the Neds Classic, during Caulfield Cup Day at Caulfield Racecourse on October 16, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

 

 

By Stephen Brassel
04:09pm • 27 October 2021

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Following Tuesday’s barrier draw, National Racing Editor Stephen Brassel makes a case for and against each runner in the $2m Victoria Derby at Flemington.

While Forgot You and Gunstock hold sway at the top of the markets it’s a wide open edition of the 2500m classic and barriers have made it even more intriguing.

1 – FORGOT YOU (8) $3
Daniel Moor, 57kg, Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young
HIT: He’s a winner even though he never gets home by far and should run the 2500m right out.
MISS: Sixth run of his preparation?

2 – TUTUKAKA (12) $11
James McDonald 57kg, Tony Pike
HIT: Change of tactics and hit the line strongly to win the Geelong Classic and looks a genuine stayer and superstar hoop James McDonald taking the reins another plus.
MISS: Never beat much last start.

3 – ALEGRON (9) $9
Brett Prebble 57kg, James Cummings
HIT: Ran the best last 800m of the Spring Champion Stakes to finish third.
MISS: Just one win from eight starts.

4 – GUNSTOCK (19) $4
Jye McNeil 57kg, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
HIT: Impressive winning the Caulfield Classic and the stable and jockey are firing and Gunstock is improving every time he goes to the races.
MISS: Wide draw and short run to first turn.

5 – AKIHIRO (2) $26
Rachel King (57kg), Gary Portelli
HIT: Most experienced having had 10 starts and raced handy and fought on well enough in Moonee Valley Vase for fifth.
MISS: Question over a tough 2500m.

6 – CHARACTER (10) $26
Fred Kersley, James Cummings
HIT: Run down late after being there to win in the Geelong Classic and that followed solid fourth at Flemington.
MISS: Been up a long time.

7 – JUNGLE MAGNATE (5) $21
Luke Currie, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
HIT: Solid effort at only his fourth start when home strongly behind Forgot You at Moonee Valley and perfectly drawn.
MISS: Not as experienced as some of the others.

8 – COMMANDER HARRY (15) $21
Linda Meech 57kg, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
HIT: Tremendous effort off a tough run when down narrowly to stablemate Forgot You at Moonee Valley last week.
MISS: Was last week a fluke as he started $91?

Forgot You runs down Commander Harry in last week’s Vase. Picture: Michael Klein

9 – HITOTSU (7) $9
John Allen 57kg, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
HIT: Came off an impressive Donald maiden for great 5th behind Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas and gets Cox Plate-winning hoop on top.
MISS: Having just his third start of the preparation and 1600m to 2500m?

10 – CERBERUS (20) $34
Damien Thornton 57kg, Anthony & Sam Freedman
HIT: Was having only his third start when getting home strongly in Listed company at Morphettville last time out.
MISS: Won in a blanket finished last time and draws the outside gate.

11 – GUNDEC (3) $51
Craig Williams 57kg, Symon Wilde
HIT: Gets Craig Williams in the saddle and drawn beautifully for an on-pacer.
MISS: Well beaten last time.

12 – CLYDE (6) $101
Dean Yendall 57kg, Gary Portelli
HIT: Winner two of his last four starts in NSW and rock hard fit.
MISS: Been winning in much lower grade.

13 – EL ROCKO (16) $101
Jamie Mott 57kg, John McArdle
HIT: Run had some merit when just over three lengths from Forgot You at Moonee Valley last week.
MISS: Still a maiden after eight starts and drawn wide.

14 – RAGING BULL (17) $34
TBD 57kg, David Payne
HIT: Astute trainer and easily won his maiden at Wyong two runs back.
MISS: Only battled when 6th in the Champion Stakes.

15 – CHEERFUL MOMENT (14) $51
Blaike McDougall 57kg, Lindsey Smith
HIT: Looked a likely staying type after a couple of tough efforts when down narrowly at Flemington and Caulfield before failing last Saturday.
MISS: Has covered more ground than Burke and Wills from NZ to WA and now Victoria.

Cheerful Moment ran a close third at Caulfield two starts ago. Picture: Michael Klein

16 – TEEWATERS (4) $17
Declan Bates 57kg, Archie Alexander
HIT: Putting together a nice record with a win and three placings past four starts and solid at Caulfield last time.
MISS: Clearly outstayed by Gunstock last time.

17(e) – ZOUMON (13) $51
Glen Boss 57kg, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
HIT: Winner two from three and gets proven Group 1 winners Glen Boss and Waterhouse/Bott. Has the speed to get out of any trouble early.
MISS: Only won a Moe benchmark 70 last time.

18(e) – SEBASTIAN THE FOX (1) $67
Jarrod Fry 57kg, Shay Keating
HIT: Battled away when fourth behind Gunstock last time after solid third at Flemington.
MISS: One win was on Ballarat synthetic.

19(e) – KING OF PHARAOHS (18) $101
Will Gordon 57kg, Lindsey Smith
HIT: Bolted in with his maiden at Coleraine three runs back winning by nine lengths and two runs since have been solid.
MISS: This is much harder and drawn wide out.

20(e) – SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (11) $26
Jordan Childs 57kg, Mitchell Freedman
HIT: Held up for a run and good effort when fifth behind Forgot You in the Moonee Valley Vase last week.
MISS: As fourth emergency doubt he’ll get a run.

 

 

[Chief Stipe]

Victoria Derby

‘Little battling Kiwi trainer’ finally lands J-Mac for Derby

Tony Pike says Tutukaka is a big chance in the Victoria Derby. Picture: AAP

 

 

By Ben Dorries
01:42pm • 27 October 2021

Comments

Tony Pike has been stirring up his former Kiwi countryman James McDonald for years about hardly ever riding for him, but the great mates are combining for a gilt-edged chance to win Saturday’s Group 1 Victoria Derby.

Damian Lane rode Pike’s charge Tutukaka to an impressive win in the recent Geelong Classic but Pike has turned to “J-Mac’’ for the Derby as Lane will miss the bumper day due to a whip suspension.

Surprisingly, New Zealander Pike and former Kiwi McDonald have only teamed up on rare occasions.

But after narrowly missing snaring a Group 1 together when The Bostonian got pipped in the George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill in March last year, the duo are determined to make it count in Saturday’s Derby.

And some good-natured ribbing is just the way to prepare for a Derby tilt on Tutukaka who is rated a $9 chance by TAB fixed odds.

“James has hardly ever ridden for me, he’s too bloody hard to get,” Pike quipped.

“He is far too high profile for a little battling Kiwi trainer like myself.

“He is actually one of my best mates, he comes on a Queenstown golf tour pretty regularly and I give it to him all the time about hardly ever riding for me.

“We got close with The Bostonian in the George Ryder, so hopefully we can go one better on Saturday.”

James McDonald will ride Tutukaka in the Derby. Picture: NCA Newswire.

 

A Derby win would be a pick-me-up for Cambridge-based Pike who due to Covid-19 restrictions in New Zealand has unable to go to all but one local racetrack in his homeland in recent times.

It would also be a great tonic for McDonald who had his Cox Plate favourite Zaaki scratched on race morning last Saturday and on Wednesday the British Melbourne Cup challenger he was booked for, Away He Goes, was ruled out with a tendon injury.

As for Pike, the astute Kiwi horseman has won five Australian Group 1s – four of which have come in Queensland, which has been a happy hunting ground for him in the last five years.

He has never won a Victorian Group 1 but thinks that can change with Tutukaka who he said matured considerably during a three-run campaign during the Queensland winter carnival.

Due to Covid-19 restrictions, Tutukaka missed a trial before going to Victoria for the spring and was a run short in his first two Victorian hit-outs before he showed what he is capable of when surging home to win the Classic over 2200m at Geelong.

Pike said the 2500m Derby trip will be even more in his sweet spot.

“He came to Australia short of a run but I really do think he is now peaking at exactly the right time,” Pike said.

“We got some work into him going into the Geelong Classic and he relaxed beautifully and did pretty much everything right.

“The Derby trip should be no problem at all.

“If he can get a soft run midfield with cover he will be a genuine chance, he will run the trip out better than most.”

Tutukaka winning the Geelong Classic last week. Picture: Getty Images

 

While Pike is convinced Tutukaka will love every metre of the 2500m Derby test, he feels there are question marks around some others who are well regarded in the betting market.

Last Saturday’s Moonee Valley Vase winner Forgot You is likely to start Derby favourite but Pike said “that horse still has to get to 2500m and last Saturday he had a tough run on a wet track”.

Pike feels Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace’s Derby runner Hitotsu “looks a smart horse off his Caulfield Guineas run but now has to jump from a mile to 2500m”.

“There are a few question marks about a heap of Derby runners,” Pike said.

“We are in there with a good a chance and I am confident he will run the trip out better than most.

“The trip away to Queensland during the winter helped him grow up.

“If I hadn’t taken him to Queensland I would have had no chance of getting him to a Derby as he wouldn’t have had enough prizemoney and he wouldn’t have had enough mileage under his belt.”

 

 

[Chief Stipe]

Remember this horse?

2006 – Efficient 

You wouldn’t see a better ride and it was also some win by Efficient in the 2006 Victoria Derby.

One of the greatest Victoria Derby winners of all time, the grey son of Zabeel was in a different league to his opponents and relished the strong gallop set up by Spring Champion Stakes winner Teranaba.

Efficient ran his final 400m in almost a second faster than any of his rivals, winning by a widening 2-1/4 lengths from Gorky Park and Teranaba.

“He was electric, just a different grade,” Rodd said.

“This horse can really level out, he makes them look second rate.

“It's just unbelievable what this horse has done.”

Efficient was trained by Kiwi trainer Graeme Rogerson and trained on to win the Melbourne Cup the following year and a Turnbull Stakes in 2009.

[holy ravioli]

Plenty of Kiwi breeding in this race.Dirty on Tutukaka winning without me last start.

Looks very open .

Big run from Jungle Magnate last start did not go unnoticed.

Whats the best form line?

With a more conservative ride Commander Harry can win....So I'm Commander Harry-Jungle Magnate-Tutukaka-Gundec.

Any insights?

 

[holy ravioli]

Sorry Chief forgot about this thread..delete mine.

[Huey]

Jungle Magnate for me

[nomates]

On the way he won last week Forgot You has to be very tough , if it comes down to a dog fight he has to go close , wasn't going to win till the last 50 and Flemington will be right up his street , great draw , and 4.5 great money , i thought 2.5 on his form . The way Gunstock won at Geelong was impressive but horror draw , so i'll go FY .

[Doomed]

On 10/27/2021 at 7:55 PM, Chief Stipe said:

Remember this horse?

2006 – Efficient 

You wouldn’t see a better ride and it was also some win by Efficient in the 2006 Victoria Derby.

One of the greatest Victoria Derby winners of all time, the grey son of Zabeel was in a different league to his opponents and relished the strong gallop set up by Spring Champion Stakes winner Teranaba.

Efficient ran his final 400m in almost a second faster than any of his rivals, winning by a widening 2-1/4 lengths from Gorky Park and Teranaba.

“He was electric, just a different grade,” Rodd said.

“This horse can really level out, he makes them look second rate.

“It's just unbelievable what this horse has done.”

Efficient was trained by Kiwi trainer Graeme Rogerson and trained on to win the Melbourne Cup the following year and a Turnbull Stakes in 2009.

Red Anchor wasn't a bad Derby winner. Not many win the Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate and Derby within the space of a few weeks.

[holy ravioli]

39 minutes ago, Doomed said:

Red Anchor wasn't a bad Derby winner. Not many win the Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate and Derby within the space of a few weeks.

Tulloch about the only one I can think of that comes close or...better.

[Joe Bloggs]

13 hours ago, nomates said:

On the way he won last week Forgot You has to be very tough , if it comes down to a dog fight he has to go close , wasn't going to win till the last 50 and Flemington will be right up his street , great draw , and 4.5 great money , i thought 2.5 on his form . The way Gunstock won at Geelong was impressive but horror draw , so i'll go FY .

NM, he's a Savabeel...a Savabeel, 2500? Now I know Mahogany won it, and easily and he was a Last Tycoon from an Alydar mare [which helps], and 3yo's can sometimes overcome the adversity of having a Dad that just doesn't get winners over a Classic distance, however,  if it was an Oaks and Forgot You was a filly I would bend ever so gently as Savabeel's females are so superior to his colts.......if he wins I'll send you a nude selfie of me and Kylie Minogue having an early morning swim on the Goldie.....there you go, how's that for confidence.

[KickintheKods]

So you've got a photo of The Singing Budgie in your wallet - you take it swimming with you where you expose it to your wizened up old fella. 

 

Life has certainly treated you well.

 

Geez I hope it runs second for all our sakes.

[Joe Bloggs]

#metoo

[nomates]

3 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

NM, he's a Savabeel...a Savabeel, 2500? Now I know Mahogany won it, and easily and he was a Last Tycoon from an Alydar mare [which helps], and 3yo's can sometimes overcome the adversity of having a Dad that just doesn't get winners over a Classic distance, however,  if it was an Oaks and Forgot You was a filly I would bend ever so gently as Savabeel's females are so superior to his colts.......if he wins I'll send you a nude selfie of me and Kylie Minogue having an early morning swim on the Goldie.....there you go, how's that for confidence.

Memory is definitely going Joe , Brambles won a Queensland Derby and Sangster won the VRC Derby as well as an Auckland Cup .

If i am wrong and you send that photo can you do me a favor , and no disrespect , but can you photo shop so only Kylie is in it . Anymore could do me mental damage lasting the rest of my life .

Much appreciated .

 

[Joe Bloggs]

You may have detected I'm a bit 'anti' Savabeel colts NM, not so the fillies. They can be skinny scrawny things or big outstanding specimens, they come in all sorts, but by gee they can be good, the colts raised and abetted by one 'Bought By Dave' go for huge money, they underachieve and the ROI on Savabeel colts would be horrendous. Dave is not Rob Crusoe tho, many of these bloodstock agents still wearing L Plates go hard at the sales and force poor old Dave to go even harder, then a collection of awe struck Aussie trainers get caught in the moment and fins themselves in a bidding war, so my radar is off the scale whenever a Savabeel colt enters the mounting yard with a boom on it.......Yep I concede he's go a couple of better ones go the 2400, but mate, that extra 100 metres at Flemington can catch a lot of pretenders out, so be cautious come tomorrow when you open your wallet and all those moths fly out, treat warily brother, as David Payne has a very good horse in there as does Archie Alexander and to cap it off Gary Portelli has the winner I hope, all at lucrative odds....If I'm wrong I shall be packing shelves on the Woolworths [Countdown] night shift next week....yee ha.

[Gammalite]

On 10/27/2021 at 4:51 PM, Chief Stipe said:

Tutukaka to an impressive win in the recent Geelong Classic but Pike has turned to “J-Mac’’ for the Derby as Lane will miss the bumper day due to a whip suspension.

Surprisingly, New Zealander Pike and former Kiwi McDonald

Surely you are all over this one Chief ? named after a place in Northland and all ? with supermacca JMac getting the ride ? 

Jmac riding Kukeracha to a brilliant Queensland Derby win this year, so has that 'Derby feeling' going lol.... 

Kiwi Trainer? , Last start Classic winner too.? suitable distance. Here we Gooooooo

[KickintheKods]

There will be a hundred happy folk after Station One just bolted in at Cranbourne in the first leg of the quaddie.

All owners are people who receive the daily Australian SPORTS JOURNAL email (I highly recommend it) who joined the syndicate to race the horse. ( I have enough so didn't partake.)

Liam Howley has been very patient but has always said this was a good horse and a first up kill was planned.

A dead jump out a couple of weeks ago with some excellent trackwork and tonight was the target, with another planned.

Liam sent an email with his thoughts this morning ....early.....and advised to have a bet before 9am Australian time as he was going to accept to also run in a race on Tuesday at Flemington. He was very confident about running well tonight as a lead up to Tuesday.

The $26 was much appreciated. Thank you Ladbrokes.

It started at $5.

You gotta love these rare occasions.

[KickintheKods]

I think a tankful on the Local Government owned Three Waters is a sound investment in the race.

The Pommie trainer and Irish rider like ice in their whisky, so it looks like a Dundeel to me.

I may have water on the brain but here goes.

Bottoms Up.

[holy ravioli]

Hitotsu started fav and absolutely bolted in!.....frsssssssssssst.

[nomates]

1 minute ago, holy ravioli said:

Hitotsu started fav and absolutely bolted in!.....frsssssssssssst.

Fantastic training effort , 2 races this season , 1300 and 1600 into 2500 and won like a freak .

[holy ravioli]

My roughie of the day coming up..Trekking.