Chief Stipe Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Hope you all got plenty. No doubt we are in for another round of Dunn stable bagging and the Peter Proft NZ Harness Journalist is filing their story right now. Often it doesn't take a master trainer much to turn around a horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KickintheKods Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Is it just a case of follow the Dunny money? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, KickintheKods said: Is it just a case of follow the Dunny money? I'd say nothing more than that. Mind you it doesn't take much of a bet in NZ to scare the bookies or to substantially drop the tote price. The Dunn's have a long history of turning problem horses around. They've made a bit of a niche out of it. Whereas unless a horse is really top notch the All Stars off-load problem horses. Been going on forever. I remember when my father owned a few he was always on the look out for horses that showed good sectionals but had gait or behavioural issues. Once you found the problem and solved it then you set up for the punt. Really stuffs up the punters that rely on their algorithms! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The Dunn's must be getting pissed off with the idiots casting aspersions that they are cheats. It's not cheating to do what you are good at and that's to TRAIN a horse. No obligation to tell every punter that you've got your horse going really well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Certainly someone got some, but as Chief says it could be buggerall! The Accountants in Wellington move anything down if there is good support. Someone may want to get as much as they can on, and thr Bookies just hammer it down! Does anyone actually get any decent amounts on their accounts with TOP4???? Dont near anything about it, and certainly not promoted!!! Seems extremely pointless have the option when you can only bet on it via your account! Not sure if everyone is restricted to absolutely pathetic amounts on TOP4, but seriously NZ TAB restrictions to net $20 is surely just TAKING THE PISS???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Brodie said: Does anyone actually get any decent amounts on their accounts with TOP4???? It's rather problematic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Been going on forever. I remember when my father owned a few he was always on the look out for horses that showed good sectionals but had gait or behavioural issues. Once you found the problem and solved it then you set up for the punt The horses (Stella's Delight) whos form was fine for Methven. horse Had been chasing in faster times at Addington and Ashburton , but only having to go slow times on the grass (and with John Dunn driving instead of McCormick) was a good chance when only having to roll home in a 'minute neat' last 1/2 mile. Wouldn't take many bets to bring the price in with Stella. I think anyone following the stable would be very very happy with the price's of StellaDelight , and Mark Dunnett (today with a junior driver) and High Flying Harry (another juinior) at Addington. Can't understand all the grizzling really ???? seems some good value about ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Some people look for ghosts. Neville Bennett has such a grudge about something. Wouldn't be surprised if it was him feeding Peter Proft all the crap. Perhaps a case of glasshouses and stones? If he has evidence of what he asserts then he should publish it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, Gammalite said: The horses (Stella's Delight) whos form was fine for Methven. I watched the race and thought hell it didn't win all that convincingly with the softest run of the race. Doesn't say much for the rest of the field! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hardly a cheap shot @Forbury. Don't you think it is a bit off for a prominent owner to cast aspersions or allegations against NZ's Leading Trainer without posting any evidence? Then hides behind a private Facebook page? Perhaps some should look closer at those who throw the first stones! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'm not sure why people in this thread refer to the dunn stable turning stellas delights form around.Am i missing something as its officially shown as g burgess as the trainer. J dunn drove it,but he gets the best out of anything. They did win with mark dunnett at a good price,but if you had watched t nally drive down south you wouldn't have given it much chance. Down there he has never shown any aggression tactically in about 3 years of driving.I often think they have to wake him up when the race finishes,but yesterday he drove the inch perfect race. Maybe he can drive after all. I'm guessing thats why the horse paid so much. I do agree with gammalite about the high flyn harry price. $42 was unreal. I was kicking myself i didn't back it as i had it on top, but thought the draw would stop it and just left that race alone and didn't look at the price pre race.K Newman drive on this horse at westport i thought was terrible and i thought he was lucky not to get a penalty,but one poorly judged drive amongst countless good drives means punters should always have confidence when he drives one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunterthepunter Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 20 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: The Dunn's must be getting pissed off with the idiots casting aspersions that they are cheats. It's not cheating to do what you are good at and that's to TRAIN a horse. No obligation to tell every punter that you've got your horse going really well. when your top trainers like purdon and the Dunns there will always be idiots that will try and put you down its called jealousy. eg top trainers no how to feed a horse and work a horse 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 17 hours ago, Brodie said: Certainly someone got some, but as Chief says it could be buggerall! The Accountants in Wellington move anything down if there is good support. Someone may want to get as much as they can on, and thr Bookies just hammer it down! Does anyone actually get any decent amounts on their accounts with TOP4???? Dont near anything about it, and certainly not promoted!!! Seems extremely pointless have the option when you can only bet on it via your account! Not sure if everyone is restricted to absolutely pathetic amounts on TOP4, but seriously NZ TAB restrictions to net $20 is surely just TAKING THE PISS???? I agree that the TAB don't want the business of punters who win more than they lose. 95% of horses i bet on odds drop within seconds(not minutes) of my having a bet and i'm betting $20-$100 and they can be to win as little as $20,but thats how it works.They do take my bets,but they know i bet on a couple of accounts so by dropping the odds i think its their best way of discouraging me from betting.And i've worked out over the years that overall i make about a 15% profit on what i spend,but since in recent months they have developed some sort of computer program to drop the prices,its not that profitable. Some would argue that is good business from the TAB,but it doesn't encourage turnover. And i've been watching for the last 3 months everything i back on the tote,where i do the bulk of my betting,is dropping in prices as well. Its not my imagination,as i've kept a record of it. And i don't consider myself a big spender. Maybe its the pools are small,but something is going on which seems strange to me. Anyway the point is if its happening to me i'm guessing its happening to others,and that will lead to amounts in betting pools reducing,which ultimately will discourage betting even more. You know there are some punters out there who spend a lot of money at the tab. I'm not one in the big boys category myself,but some can spend 2 or 3 million a year just on the tote. But i know thats not going to last when their returns don't justify their investment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, the galah said: I'm not sure why people in this thread refer to the dunn stable turning stellas delights form around.Am i missing something as its officially shown as g burgess as the trainer. J dunn drove it,but he gets the best out of anything. Correct - G Burgess is listed officially as the Trainer. However It was reported on the HRNZ site that it was currently domiciled at R & J Dunn's stable at Woodend. Which is just over 10km from Burgess. As with most of these going off half cocked beat ups some of the facts are conveniently overlooked. It was acquired by Burgess around the middle of last year. Mrs RM Low was the previous trainer - who essentially is an amateur trainer recording 8 wins from 183 lifetime starts since 2005! Burgess took it to the workouts in October last year. It ran third driven by himself. Then a trial 22 December driven by J Dunn. Didn't get the best of runs but ran on a little. Didn't do much racing at Ashburton 11 January after a good run but was definitely hanging. Then it wins yesterday. Change of gear. Didn't hang. Softest run of the race. It happens. A fitter and happier horse. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, hunterthepunter said: when your top trainers like purdon and the Dunns there will always be idiots that will try and put you down its called jealousy. eg top trainers no how to feed a horse and work a horse Plus eliminate the niggles that make the horse unhappy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 @Enteebee you can call me all the names in the world - I don't really give a shyte. But what I do give a shyte about is you accusing NZ's leading stables of race doping. Show some balls and put your name to your allegations. Not that you really need to as you are quick to beat your chest when your horses win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I guess that to make a profit from betting on horse racing,you have to have other punters invest on horses who you don't consider chances. If there is less % of people investing on horses who aren't chances,and those left doing the investing are the better judges of raceform,then that means the % betting on the better chance will be greater,meaning the horses with the chances will pay less,and therefore the profits will become less,which leads to even less investment. I think that is a factor in dividends today. Just look at the whales selections. He knows his stuff,is a big influencer of prices,but i doubt the whale watch selections would turn a profit as he kills any value. And as to the future,you would think the casual punters discretionary $ that they use to bet with will be reduced,given the way the economy has gone with inflation,rising future mortgage payments because of % rates, ridiculous debt levels because of housing prices and rents. So things aren't that rosey. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, the galah said: I guess that to make a profit from betting on horse racing,you have to have other punters invest on horses who you don't consider chances. If there is less % of people investing on horses who aren't chances,and those left doing the investing are the better judges of raceform,then that means the % betting on the better chance will be greater,meaning the horses with the chances will pay less,and therefore the profits will become less,which leads to even less investment. I think that is a factor in dividends today. Just look at the whales selections. He knows his stuff,is a big influencer of prices,but i doubt the whale watch selections would turn a profit as he kills any value. And as to the future,you would think the casual punters discretionary $ that they use to bet with will be reduced,given the way the economy has gone with inflation,rising future mortgage payments because of % rates, ridiculous debt levels because of housing prices and rents. So things aren't that rosey. Another problem is the TAB laying their fixed odds liabilities off on the tote - LATE! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Another problem is the TAB laying their fixed odds liabilities off on the tote - LATE! Surely the tote pools would be too small. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rangatira said: Surely the tote pools would be too small. Probably but they could still reduce their liability. Still seeing huge reductions in tote prices AFTER the horses have run at least 400m. Anyway $3.50 is a reasonable dividend albeit under's based on form for Stella's Delight. I can understand those in the know hammering the Fixed Odd's but I would have thought the Tote price would have held higher. What was the lowest FO price? What I find amusing is that the low price was spotted well before race time and yet some punters are complaining and going as far as unfounded accusations of doping/cheating. FFS they'll be expecting Stables to publish track work next! We used to love setting a horse for a good old fashioned punt. With an average horse it was often the only way to get a return! Took a lot of skill to do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Probably but they could still reduce their liability. Still seeing huge reductions in tote prices AFTER the horses have run at least 400m. For some reason I put that down to Aussie money That elderly bloke that closely follows the tote pools might know for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rangatira said: For some reason I put that down to Aussie money But it happens whether a race is commingled or not. Plus would't you expect the distribution of the Aussie money to be similar to what the market was already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, the galah said: TAB,but it doesn't encourage turnover. And i've been watching for the last 3 months everything i back on the tote,where i do the bulk of my betting,is dropping in prices as well. Its not my imagination,as i've kept a record of it. This is because your selections are strong chances in the races. I'd say all the posters here have the same problem, as they All follow the form and know the best horses each race with the best winning chance. (usually from the top 10 stables) Always likely to be coming in (the price) . Blowing out is sure a bad sign ,especially at the gallops . I do just fixed price. (usually similar anyway , but know exactly what i'm getting and do multi's mainly . TAB prices are always likely to come in quickly and late on too. the owner , or betting team wouldn't want for example, all the PUB punters , who follow the money getting on late as well . That would drop the price further I suspect.?? So the bet goes on in the last minute or 2 before race-time. Stella's Delight was just an example of the bets going on early, which happens time to time. I didn't see a problem. Wonder how the TAB deals with BoysGetPaid big bets ? they must employ someone to handle it I guess ?? Edited January 30, 2022 by Gammalite add 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gammalite said: This is because your selections are strong chances in the races. I'd say all the posters here have the same problem, I know punters that have experienced where their bet return is limited i.e. is less than the quoted price. They take the bet and the displayed odds don't change but they can't get those odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I know punters that have experienced where their bet return is limited i.e. is less than the quoted price. They take the bet and the displayed odds don't change but they can't get those odds. Well they (tab and bookies) need to return a profit to operate properly. Brodie has often commented on limits. I don't try and put that much on. $500 week limit total and live off the punt fine on that. Fun story for you ! is , with the Bookmaker rings in Australia you split the bet and use mules to get the bets on simultaneously with the Bookies. We did this several times in the 80's at Moonee Valley trots where there were heaps of bookies. The good horses would arrive from NZ and the 10k owner bet, would get split 10 ways and the 10 mules would hit the 10 bookies (with 4-1 odds up usually for an unknown horse) Hit them at exactly the same time. The price automatically rolled in to even money straight after. Bookies COPY each Other very quickly with Winding them in , so the HIT had to be co-ordinated. I was one of the 10 several times and don't think we had a miss actually !! was excellent work!!!! . I remember some of them Salzburg, Gatcombe, Smooth Falcon ,Vance Glen and many more, just too good for the locals. were Not trying to 'Break the Bookies " either.! you need them . They could cough up 3k each on that move, but get that back easily on the races. The 10 lads, of which I was one, got $100 sling each so we had great night out on Melbourne Town for the night . some fun days ! (and nights) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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