the galah Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 (edited) I've been watching the whale watch in recent times.Theres no doubting he knows his stuff,but also theres no doubt he kills the price of every horse he tips to the extent that if you were putting a $ each way on all his selections you would barely be breaking even. Last night he had a couple of scratchings,but 2 of his 4 selections managed to win. Still,as per normal,you would still have only got $7 back from an $8 investment for the $1 each way. I'm not convinced promoting his selections helps turnover.There is never any value in backing one of his selections as every time,no exception,they are always unders on what a fair price would be. I see he has tipped one in the last today that i liked,but because hes tipped it personlly i will give the race a miss. The horse is arizona wildcat. It opened at $7.50,which seemed a fair price,(not that anyone who wanted to put much on would be able to back it anyway). But he will kill the tote price as well,as theres a definite pattern of people betting on the tote after a horses fixed odds drop. I suggest people watch that price drop. I'm guessing because the whale has tipped it and john dunn is driving it,it will be the biggest mover of the day and start around $3.20. And that would be a ridiculous price. Edited February 18, 2022 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 (edited) Also,just ask yourself this,Would the TAB promote the whale watch on their betting website like it does,above each harness meeting,if they were losing on the fixed odds betting? Edited February 18, 2022 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, the galah said: Theres no doubting he knows his stuff,but also theres no doubt he kills the price of every horse he tips to the extent that if you were putting a $ each way on all his selections you would barely be breaking even. He only ever picks favourites so the price is low to start with. Why don't you look for value elsewhere because if as you say he distorts the market then that increases the value of other horses. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 “The Whale” is promoted on Trackside as this best analyst kf harness racing in The country! Think this is based on a decade or so ago of picking all the winners at The Jewels day! Maintain that it is a conflict of interest betting for himself, being paid for a tipping service and then tipping horses on Trackside! Does he always back the horses that he tips????? Anyway, if you have the need to pay for what he tips on his tipping line, then go for it, but how many actually do this? Occasionally, he might tip something of value but mostly as chief says, he is just tipping form horses and no value whatsoever! If he was tipping out plenty of winners then the TAB would not want him cleaning the Bookies out! Do I see “The Whale” as the best analyst for harness in NZ and tils worth backing? NAH, far from it, but each to their own! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davis Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Brodie said: “The Whale” is promoted on Trackside as this best analyst kf harness racing in The country! Think this is based on a decade or so ago of picking all the winners at The Jewels day! Maintain that it is a conflict of interest betting for himself, being paid for a tipping service and then tipping horses on Trackside! Does he always back the horses that he tips????? Anyway, if you have the need to pay for what he tips on his tipping line, then go for it, but how many actually do this? Occasionally, he might tip something of value but mostly as chief says, he is just tipping form horses and no value whatsoever! If he was tipping out plenty of winners then the TAB would not want him cleaning the Bookies out! Do I see “The Whale” as the best analyst for harness in NZ and tils worth backing? NAH, far from it, but each to their own! On the money again mate. Another hopeless selector is the person who does the selection horses story for the days' meeting. Today, its "Herbert and Himself a likely du at Rangiora today." I don't know Miss Herbert got on as won't be watching Rangiora. Nevertheless, who ever picks the horses to highlight each race day, is almost a kiss of death. You can guarantee that the highlights horse/horses will finish down the track. The person, he or she, seems to have little knowledge and experience of harness racing or is a poor judge. Hopeless strike rate. I wonder how much this person is paid? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, the galah said: I've been watching the whale watch in recent times.Theres no doubting he knows his stuff,but also theres no doubt he kills the price of every horse he tips to the extent that if you were putting a $ each way on all his selections you would barely be breaking even. Last night he had a couple of scratchings,but 2 of his 4 selections managed to win. Still,as per normal,you would still have only got $7 back from an $8 investment for the $1 each way. I'm not convinced promoting his selections helps turnover.There is never any value in backing one of his selections as every time,no exception,they are always unders on what a fair price would be. I see he has tipped one in the last today that i liked,but because hes tipped it personlly i will give the race a miss. The horse is arizona wildcat. It opened at $7.50,which seemed a fair price,(not that anyone who wanted to put much on would be able to back it anyway). But he will kill the tote price as well,as theres a definite pattern of people betting on the tote after a horses fixed odds drop. I suggest people watch that price drop. I'm guessing because the whale has tipped it and john dunn is driving it,it will be the biggest mover of the day and start around $3.20. And that would be a ridiculous price. So today his 3 tips prices dropped from opening at $2.80 to $1.85, $4.20 to $3.30 and $7.50 to $3.20. They all closed well under what they should have. He got 2 seconds. Still,can't deny today he did help the TAB fixed odds turnover by the sounds of it. Amongst some bets on arizona wildcat were bets of $6,500 and $5000 at $3.30 according to the trackside presenter. They almost came off but the horse looked a little flat from the fast race it ran in 6 days ago. Amazing that people would put so much money on a horse at the reduced dividend,when its opening price which was double that, was about right.The power of the whale. Edited February 19, 2022 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, the galah said: They all closed well under what they should have How did you assess what they "should have" been? Couldn't it be just a case of the market agreeing as a whole? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: How did you assess what they "should have" been? Couldn't it be just a case of the market agreeing as a whole? Everyone has there own assessment i guess. But even the whale bases his selections on the opening prices as he is always quoting them when giving his selections.So when the prices drop so much,as they always seem to,then i'm pretty sure the whale wouldn't think the starting prices would be worth betting on. I guess his supporters rely on him to just pick winners,and seem happy to back them whatever the price.Maybe thats why he picks so many short priced favorites. The TAB are well known for opening horses at conservative prices,so punters who back them at the reduced prices aren't using a winning formula. i did have a theory that one or two of the punters who follow him with large investments may be trying to launder their money. Just a hunch but who knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, the galah said: i did have a theory that one or two of the punters who follow him with large investments may be trying to launder their money. Just a hunch but who knows. You can only anonymously launder to a maximum collect of I think it's $999 thesedays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, Rangatira said: You can only anonymously launder to a maximum collect of I think it's $999 thesedays. Your dry sense of humour cracks me up. Laughed out loud at that post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The interesting thing is that Craig normally tips horses out in the more tightly assessed races. horses from the top stables and often in my opinion not really worth the risk. However if it works for him then good on him. Have it on good authority that the NZ TAB didn’t see Craig as a big threat to them and they allow him to bet early. This is why the odds are generally dropped on the horses he tips. As I say if you think he is worth following then go for it, but how much fun do you actually get from punting on someone else’s tips at low odds?? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Rangatira said: You can only anonymously launder to a maximum collect of I think it's $999 thesedays. No idea how that works myself,but i would be quite happy to collect $999 each day.The reason they felt the need to bring in the anti money laundering thing a couple of years back was because it happens. Heck i remember about 20 years ago having a good week on the punt each day and when i went to get my money out for the 4th time in as many days, the TAB manager wouldn't give it to me because he said i was money laundering and he was on to me about getting my money from some sort of criminal activity. Those were the days.I wish i had the same problem now days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 (edited) Personally dont see the 1k limit as anything to do with money laundering whatsoever! Does the Casino’s in NZ have a limit of $1k????? That is, that if you cash in $1k in chips you have to identify yourself?? If you want to buy $1k of chips at the Blackjack table, do they ask you to produce ID when you are sitting alongside 5 other players??? The truth of the matter is the NZ TAB want to know who is collecting money off them and therefore restrict them when they also want to wager! Have no problem with rules that potentially helps stop money laundering of dirty money! However, to put a blanket policy that hinders genuine punters who are known to the TAB agencies or oncourse to $1k collect from a $2 bet is just blatant stupidity and control. With all the surveillance and computer abilities nowadays you can not tell me that they can not track down people that are actually money laundering?? I have no problem at all with the TAB or Govt. agency coming to me to discuss my wagering and where the money ks coming from as I have nothing to hide! However they wont as it is nothing to do with money laundering it is all about knowing who they are paying out to so they can control them if .needed. $1k in this day and age is petty cash and I am sure there is far easier and safer ways of money laundering than gambling on harness horses! Edited February 19, 2022 by Brodie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brodie said: Does the Casino’s in NZ have a limit of $1k????? That is, that if you cash in $1k in chips you have to identify yourself?? If you want to buy $1k of chips at the Blackjack table, do they ask you to produce ID when you are sitting alongside 5 other players?? I believe their limit is higher BUT they do monitor for accumulative transactions. Unlike the TAB they do record every move you make in their Casino on video. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I believe their limit is higher BUT they do monitor for accumulative transactions. Unlike the TAB they do record every move you make in their Casino on video. So why do they have a higher limit at the Casino?? Because the NZ TAB want to be able to control who wins!!! why does there need to be a difference between the two? Maybe a limit of $5k would be more appropriate. Treating long term citizens of NZ as potential crims is not that becoming sorry! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Brodie said: So why do they have a higher limit at the Casino?? Probably because every gambling movement in the Casino is recorded on video. 8 minutes ago, Brodie said: Because the NZ TAB want to be able to control who wins!!! why does there need to be a difference between the two? You start beating the house too often in a Casino and see what happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Probably because every gambling movement in the Casino is recorded on video. You start beating the house too often in a Casino and see what happens. So when does a gambling facility not become a gambling facility? Do we know what the limit is at the Casino? The thing is that if they dont want to take the good with the bad then they need to get out of the kitchen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Sounds like a whale of a tail 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Shad said: Sounds like a whale of a tail Decent horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 The whale lovers again plunging a horse in the last tonight from $13 into $5. No apparent reason for it i could see based on its form. I know he is knowledgeable, but I just can't work out why punters back his tips whether the price is realistic or not. Thats about 4 meetings in a row where you would have come out behind if you had a $1 e/w on his selections for each meeting.Maybe hes due a change of luck soon and will get back into form? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spatchcock Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, the galah said: The whale lovers again plunging a horse in the last tonight from $13 into $5. No apparent reason for it i could see based on its form. I know he is knowledgeable, but I just can't work out why punters back his tips whether the price is realistic or not. Thats about 4 meetings in a row where you would have come out behind if you had a $1 e/w on his selections for each meeting.Maybe hes due a change of luck soon and will get back into form? do your form it had been going big races Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Spatchcock said: do your form it had been going big races well i do my form,but thought the $13 that it opened at was accurate,and the $5 it closed at as a bit ridiculous. I rate myself better than the whale. The point was people back anything the whale tips even if they are paying almost 1/3 of what they should be. Just an observation. Edited February 25, 2022 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 9 hours ago, the galah said: well i do my form,but thought the $13 that it opened at was accurate,and the $5 it closed at as a bit ridiculous. I rate myself better than the whale. The point was people back anything the whale tips even if they are paying almost 1/3 of what they should be. Just an observation. Na I dont rate myself against “the Whale” NZ TAB! So drop my restrictions and lets play fair! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 (edited) Looks like the whale has found some form with a couple of winners.One backed in from $10 into $4.20. Theres been 6 races,and only a couple of drivers have bothered to make a mid race move,and in every race the first 2 home have been the leader and horse behind the leader with 1200m to go,,and every race the 3rd horse has followed them through from 3 back the fence. Edited February 26, 2022 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 6 hours ago, the galah said: Looks like the whale has found some form with a couple of winners.One backed in from $10 into $4.20. Theres been 6 races,and only a couple of drivers have bothered to make a mid race move,and in every race the first 2 home have been the leader and horse behind the leader with 1200m to go,,and every race the 3rd horse has followed them through from 3 back the fence. Isn’t mile racing fabulous though? The Bookies were a bit generous today on a couple of overs! Oamaru tomorrow looks like a profitable day for the Brodster as long as the track stays good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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