Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 TAB NZ Fixed Odds for the NZ Derby. Horse Win Fixed Odds Tutukaka $13.00 White Noise $9.00 Marchand $12.00 Soldier Boy $51.00 Nest Egg $41.00 Arjay's Flight $15.00 Pinarello $3.80 Yes We Khan $41.00 Regal Lion $41.00 Ess Vee Are $41.00 Privileged Son $41.00 Asterix $41.00 La Crique $1.85 Market 131% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, holy ravioli said: Usual deflection....didn't ask what it wasn't based on...you really are a...grasper Chief. Try this one Chief...if you were doing your assessments and you noticed a horse at its prior run was full of running, blocked for room in the strait then flew home when clear and was considered by some a certainty beaten,would you take that into consideration...or not?😉 I wouldn't. Wouldn't even look for that. Isn't that what everyone else does? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Tiger Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 23 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: I disagree. She'll have to be used early to keep her position in the mad dash to the first bend. She has that tactical speed. But then she will either be stuck in front or could be shuffled back. A "perfect draw" would have been between 2 and 8. its not really a mad dash to the first bend in the Derby CS, they have the length of the straight plus the chute before hitting the first bend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, Tiger Tiger said: its not really a mad dash to the first bend in the Derby CS, they have the length of the straight plus the chute before hitting the first bend Well my observation is that often the Jockey's will cruise the first part of the straight and then panic just before the bend looking for a possie. Of course that occurs more often with 18 in the field. 13 it won't be so bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 Well La Crique definitely stayed the distance and probably ran further than any other horse. Tricky draw number 1. I see Colgan tried to stay one out hoping someone would take the rail under him. But forced back down and shuffled. Four horses vying for the lead going out of the straight the first time didn't help her either. Another observation was there was less than a $100k in the tote win pool. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Don't think many excuses for the beaten brigade, the winner was back last with a lap to run, and I guess the rest is history, they did say the horse was a 450k purchase, so some reward for the connections, don't know much about the dam of him, someone will enlighten us on her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 I don't think the best horse won the race. But all credit to the winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Shad said: the winner was back last with a lap to run Hardly a handicap with a 12 horse field and where the centre of the track seemed to be favoured. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy connolly Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Four horses vying for the lead going out of the straight the first time didn't help her either Correct, Colgan used the favorite too much early and still ended up in the position he would've if he hadn't have bustled her. You ride good horses how they want to be ridden, not how you (or anyone else) thinks they should be ridden. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, billy connolly said: Correct, Colgan used the favorite too much early and still ended up in the position he would've if he hadn't have bustled her. You ride good horses how they want to be ridden, not how you (or anyone else) thinks they should be ridden. He did try to slow her and stay out hoping something would come along the inside but no one fell for that one. I need to see the race again but I think she was the only one of the four in the lead going out of the straight the first time that finished in the top four. Shows how good she is though as she was still able to put in at the end of the race. Held up a couple or three lengths plus having to roam all over the place looking for a run. Top effort. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Hardly a handicap with a 12 horse field and where the centre of the track seemed to be favoured. That's how to ride a stayer I guess, track by was supposedly good according to jockeys,, inside didn't appear the best place to be, and I thought I heard track had been irrigated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Shad said: That's how to ride a stayer I guess, track by was supposedly good according to jockeys,, inside didn't appear the best place to be, and I thought I heard track had been irrigated. Well the winner came along the inside in the last. Have to say it was a terrible ride by Colgan in the Derby. (and no I didn't have a bet). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 13 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Another observation was there was less than a $100k in the tote win pool. Yes , I also noticed that betting figures will be interesting. All in all a dull nondescript Derby Day to say the least, expecting Cup day to look even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Huey said: Yes , I also noticed that betting figures will be interesting. All in all a dull nondescript Derby Day to say the least, expecting Cup day to look even worse. With 3 mins to go the win pool was $67k. I guess everyone bets Fixed Odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doomed Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 I think I heard them say on trackside just before the race she was paying $1.40, which seemed incredibly short. I didn't look myself as I didn't think it was much of a betting race, but I presume they were right. That's getting down to Winx type money. When you look at Derby winners over the years they can often be a rough lot that win. Very gracious remarks from the trainer of the runner up after the race. Showed a lot of class. I did think it was a bit sad that big trackside team trying to hype up what was in all honesty a pretty ordinary day's racing, with smallish fields in most races considering the stakes. In many ways Wingatui was a much more interesting days racing without the full trackside team and all the hype. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 Probably only one horse from the race going on to bigger things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Give a bit of credit to the winner -it takes a good horse to win a derby off just 3 starts. Think Xcellent The first two were far better than the rest of the field and both had average trips. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, nod said: Give a bit of credit to the winner -it takes a good horse to win a derby off just 3 starts. Think Xcellent He's not an Xcellent - he had only two starts and was unbeaten going into the Derby. Asterix is a Tavistock stayer with leg and feet issues - many like that don't go on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 If Asterix is still sound after yesterday then the Queensland Derby would be the go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 17 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Hardly a handicap with a 12 horse field and where the centre of the track seemed to be favoured. You make it sound easy, the other 11 couldn't do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Only just got a chance to watch it. Winner was too good. Fave after a very soft run couldn't accelerate with it. Might not be an Excellent but if he stays sound could be a nice stayer in the making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 46 minutes ago, curious said: Fave after a very soft run couldn't accelerate with it. Have you seen the sectionals yet or are you going on eye balling it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Have you seen the sectionals yet or are you going on eye balling it? Obviously ran a faster last 600 if that's what you mean but drew away when both were asked early in the straight and won untested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, curious said: Obviously ran a faster last 600 if that's what you mean but drew away when both were asked early in the straight and won untested. La Crique ran her first 400m a second quicker than Asterix and she had the fastest last 200m sectional. Asterix was able to lope along at the back of the field maintaining and even pace. La Crique was having to chop and change her rhythm as the front runners stop and started. She also had to to go searching for a run in the straight changing direction several times. Surprising she even ran the fastest last 200m. Certainly her speed wasn't "nullified by the distance". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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