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Why is the ONS Claiming Just 1% of Covid Deaths Are in the Vaccinated When PHE Data Shows the True Figure For August was 70%? The ONS has published a new study on Covid deaths which purports to show how few vaccinated people die of Covid. Here’s how the Telegraph reported the headline claim: “Only 59 fully vaccinated people without serious health conditions died from COVID-19 out of more than 50,000 deaths in England this year, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.” The Telegraph report continues: These statistics appear remarkable – until you realise what they’ve done. Although the data is presented as “this year” in fact the cut-off date is July 2nd. That is significant because it is just before the Delta surge got going. This means the data all comes from the Alpha surge, when almost no-one was vaccinated and tens of thousands of Covid deaths were reported, and from the quiet spring and early summer when many were vaccinated but almost no-one died (see chart below). Covid deaths in England Comparing the number of deaths in the vaccinated and unvaccinated over this period and presenting it as a percentage is meaningless and to imply it tells us anything about the effectiveness of the vaccines is misleading. The important question is what the death rates were by vaccination status during the Delta surge, not prior to it. Public Health England published a report last week which gave us this data for the period of August 9th to September 5th. Here is the table of deaths broken down by vaccination status and age. This shows that of 2,381 deaths in this period, 1,659 or 69.7%, more than two thirds, were in the double vaccinated. Six hundred deaths or 25.2% were in the unvaccinated. This is very different to the ONS statistics as quoted in the press that 99% of deaths were in those not double vaccinated. Yet no major media outlet compared or contrasted the ONS data with the PHE data released just days ago and asked why there was such a gaping discrepancy. In the over-50s, the PHE report showed that 1,621 of 2,222 deaths or 73% were in the double vaccinated compared to 499 or 22.5% in the unvaccinated. Once you take into account the proportions of the over-50s vaccinated and unvaccinated this works out at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 68.1% – respectable, but a far cry from the kind of claims being made by the ONS and parroted by the media. It’s not clear yet how well vaccine effectiveness is holding up against serious disease. Data from Israel indicates that it may drop to 55% in the over-65s over six months. The age profile of Covid patients in the U.K. has also been rising again, which may indicate declining efficacy. Elsewhere in their report the ONS did make an effort to allow for differences in age and week. They produced a graph of weekly age-standardised Covid mortality rates, which can be seen below. While this graph still suffers from ending on July 2nd, it does show us something potentially concerning about deaths following Covid vaccination. Note that in the early period deaths within 21 days of the first dose (light blue line, top chart) are significantly higher than deaths more than 21 days after the first dose, and in the later period deaths more than 21 days after the first dose are higher than in the unvaccinated (green line, bottom chart). Once you bear in mind that these charts are age-standardised, so age differences cannot be blamed, you realise they are showing you that the Covid death rate in the weeks following the first jab was disproportionately high. Why is this so? This appears to be another safety signal that warrants urgent investigation. It’s depressing to see the ONS seemingly allowing itself to be used as a vehicle for the Government’s vaccine propaganda campaign. Its latest report is yet another study using out-of-date data purporting to show high vaccine effectiveness that is picked up by a press eager to push the vaccine-saviour narrative. Meanwhile, the real-world data from the U.K., Israel and elsewhere suggesting the reality during the Delta surge has been very different continues to be ignored. Are any of our once-trusted institutions safe from being co-opted into pushing the Government’s political agenda? By Will Jones / 14 September 2021 • 07.00
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@JJ Flash I won't call you a liar perhaps misguided. It isn't the best cash profit EVER. Using accurate comparison methods it is worse than what the industry received a decade ago. Yes it is an improvement in nominal terms on recent years BUT that improvement ISN'T coming from wagering revenue. Once again I'll spell it out for you again in the vain hope that one day the penny will drop onto Wombledon Common (how are the re-runs going?). The source of the "improvement": Reduction in Taxation and Government Duty; Lower interest costs due to Government insolvency bailout; Transfer of expenses to the codes; Racefields legislation; Cuts in staff; etc. Great but don't bang the drum that anything has really changed. Fundamentally wagering on the racing codes is not returning sufficient improvements in revenue to get back to where we were a decade ago let alone keep pace with inflation. Now you are the expert and drum major for TAB NZ - what are they going to get us back to parity? i.e. keep up the improvement! But you forget they now have extra costs forced on them by TAB NZ to market their product!!!! Not to mention the costs associated with three high maintenance AWT's gifted to them! I can't imagine what HRNZ is going to spend on marketing!!
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Woops thanks for that @JJ Flash - I've corrected it. You can correct your post if you wish. How are the drums going? I guess Rangiora is a bit like Wombledon Common.
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How long before NZTR take this Covid-19 action?
Chief Stipe replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
It's not based on science or a health response but purely a response to Government policy driven by self-interest. Basically - "To hell with the science or individual liberty we'll do whatever we need to do to keep racing!" -
Arguing children need vaccines for their mental health & social development is scientifically illiterate & morally reprehensible 13 Sep, 2021 12:52 Get short URL © Getty Images / Luis Alvarez 69 Follow RT on By Joanna Williams, the founder of the think tank Cieo. She is the author of Women vs Feminism, Why We All Need Liberating From the Gender Wars and is a regular columnist for Spiked. Follow her on Twitter @jowilliams293 The UK government looks set to approve Covid jabs for 12-15-year-olds, against scientific advice. This is bad enough, but suggesting it will benefit their mental health is an insult, given how this was disregarded in lockdown. Boris Johnson is currently finalising the UK’s winter Covid plan. Reports suggest most of the emergency coronavirus restrictions we have been living under for the past 18 months will be dropped. Proposals to introduce vaccine passports in England have been ditched too. This is great news. The line now coming from government is that autumn and winter will bring new challenges but “vaccines remain the first line of defence.” Vaccines do indeed make this winter very different to the last one. Although around 30,000 people a day have been testing positive for Covid-19 for many weeks now, the proportion needing to be hospitalised is substantially lower than in either of the previous two waves. So it is easy to see why the government is throwing its weight behind the vaccine rollout. ALSO ON RT.COMWe need open and honest discussion about the pros and cons of vaccine mandates, not the hysterical shouting match we have now But just because something is good, does not mean more of it is automatically better. This week we also expect to see an announcement that vaccines will be made available to children aged 12-15. The UK’s chief medical officers are likely to overrule the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) which recently recommended against vaccinating healthy children. From the moment the coronavirus first appeared, ‘follow the science!’ was the mantra we were all expected to live by. Government ministers genuflected to science. When campaigners, journalists and trade unionists wanted ever-more restrictive measures introduced, they argued that science was being ignored. But news that the JCVI did not recommend vaccinating healthy 12-15-year- olds changed all this overnight. The very same people who, for so long, urged us to ‘follow the science’ began advocating precisely the opposite approach. The JCVI concluded that because the risk Covid poses to children is so tiny, the dangers of the vaccine – which are also very small – take on greater significance. In other words, there is simply no medical case for routinely vaccinating children against a virus that most will just shrug off. Vaccines might still be our first line of defence, but they should be targeted at those most at risk of becoming seriously ill. Government ministers and campaigners alike have pushed for the UK’s chief medical officers to overturn this rational, scientific approach and greenlight jabs for teenagers. Of course, few were so crude as to say that the JCVI scientists should be ignored. Instead, they argued, the JCVI’s remit was too narrow: it only took account of the medical evidence at the level of the individual. What’s needed, they said, is for the science to be ‘reviewed’ or ‘contextualised’ until the right decision – that is, the one Zero Covid advocates agree with – is reached. They have, it seems, got their wish and ministers are promising that younger teenagers will start being jabbed before the end of this month. READ MORE: Lockdown is a disaster for kids’ mental health, and they need support – but we also cannot pathologize an entire generation It’s not that Covid suddenly poses any more of a risk to children. And it’s definitely not the case that the vaccine has been found to be entirely risk-free. The exact opposite in fact. A US study released just two days ago shows that teenage boys are four to six times more likely to get vaccine-related myocarditis than end up in hospital with Covid. This shocking statistic should be quite enough to put paid to all further discussion about vaccinating healthy children. It clearly hasn’t. England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty is expected to approve vaccinating children after, according to the Times, expert advisers told him, “it would benefit their mental health, education and social development.” This statement truly beggars belief. Whitty is advocating vaccinating children when the risks are greater than the illness and when the vaccine does not stop people from either catching Covid or transmitting the virus. We have to twist logic beyond all recognition to begin to make sense of claims that a vaccine – a pharmaceutical intervention – can help a child’s mental health, education and social development. I’m not a scientist but I am a parent. And I have some mother’s wisdom for Chris Whitty. If you want to help children’s mental health, don’t scare them with ridiculous threats about killing granny with a hug. If you want to help children’s education, do not close schools. Do not send entire cohorts of children home because someone in their year group, someone they have had no contact with, has tested positive. And if you want to help their social development, let children lead normal lives. Let them go to school without being told to stick a Covid test swab up their nose before they can enter a classroom. Because – let’s be absolutely clear – it is not a virus that closes schools and playgrounds, youth groups and leisure centres, it is government ministers advised by you, Mr. Whitty. ALSO ON RT.COMIt’s clear that shutting UK schools in the pandemic was a massive mistake that Britain can’t afford to make again Arguing that children need to be vaccinated for their mental health, social development and education is scientifically illiterate and morally reprehensible. It suggests a political decision to vaccinate was made first, and justifications sought afterwards. The upshot is that children will be vaccinated for no other reason than to appease fretful adults and allow Boris Johnson to avoid an argument with the Zero-Covid fanatics. As a mother, this is not good enough. Of course, science is not an oracle that can tell us how to live. Decisions about lockdown, school closures and mask wearing have never been dictated by controlled scientific experiments. They have always been political. But it has suited the needs of campaigners and ministers to deny this and argue that science is objective and uncontestable. Until now. More than ever, we need to keep politics out of children’s health.
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So at which stage in a race would a similar mistake have not incurred a holiday? Do the stipes using their incredible driving experience assess every drivers decisions every race and charge them for a mistake? At the end of the day it was a mistake. There is no evidence that has been made public that there was any deliberate intent to gain anything from that mistake. Yet the likes of @JTeaz and @the galah are demanding Cameron gets a holiday between 3 and 6 months. They'll justify their "told you so" stance when the stipes hand down a holiday. Whereas just this last week we have Schumacher gets a $200 fine for breaking another horse up, Weaver gets a $200 fine and 4 days holiday for the same offence and Williamson gets a $200 fine for attempting to gain am advantage at the start by using the flying Lamb approach.
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Racing Victoria to introduce compulsory vax policy Racing participants in Victoria, including jockeys, will need to be vaccinated. Picture: Racing Photos By Gilbert Gardiner 11:19pm • 14 September 2021 0 Racing Victoria has made Covid-19 vaccination mandatory for all staff and participants, including trainers, jockeys, stable staff and stewards, from next month. The condition of entry will apply to all Victorian racecourses and training centres, as well as RV headquarters at Flemington and offices. Participants must be at least partially vaccinated by Caulfield Cup Day – October 16. It comes as two thirds (67 per cent) of participants, who completed an industry survey last week, identified as fully or partially vaccinated. A further 15 per cent said they intended to be vaccinated, while 10 per cent remained undecided. Eight per cent signalled their initial desire not to be vaccinated. RV received 1590 responses to the survey sent to 3436 participants. The Australian Trainers‘ Association, Victorian Jockeys’ Association (VJA), the three metropolitan Clubs, Country Racing Victoria and RV media businesses were all consulted on the new policy. All RV licensed participants and staff must be fully vaccinated by November 27, bar those with a lawful exemption. Owners wishing to access the mounting yard will also be subject to the vaccination policy. While other major sporting codes, including the AFL and NRL, heavily promote vaccination it is not yet compulsory for athletes, coaches and game day personnel. Racing Victoria chief executive Giles Thompson says a mandatory vaccination policy is the right decision. Picture: AAP RV chief executive Giles Thompson on Tuesday thanked participants for their ongoing efforts and compliance of biosecurity protocols to help racing combat the pandemic the past 18 months. “Unlike other sports, racing operates on a year-round daily basis with a highly mobile workforce, so it is therefore imperative we do our utmost to protect the health and safety of our workforce,” Thompson said. “The advice from our chief medical officer and our risk assessment has determined mandatory Covid-19 vaccination is the right decision for the health and safety of our staff, participants and industry.” RV will monitor vaccination supply and retain “some” flexibility should issues arise, particularly for the younger members of the workforce. VJA executive officer Matt Hyland said: “The vast majority of our members are already vaccinated or are on the pathway to getting it done. “They realise the importance vaccination plays for their health, their livelihoods and to get back to doing the things they love like travelling.” ATA boss Andrew Nicholl said: “We understand there will be individuals who will be uncomfortable with today’s announcement. “These individuals must also acknowledge that Racing Victoria has a responsibility to protect the racing community and racing product in this state. “There is no doubt the circumstances that exist in Victoria …. are challenging for everyone … the ATA believes the mandate announced today by RV is a responsible action at this time.”
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Bill Pomare's Ocean Billy at no 22.
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Melbourne Cup 2021-Melbourne-Cup-Weights.pdf
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Caulfield Cup 2021-Caulfield-Cup-Weights.pdf
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Will Incentivise do a Vow and Declare? Lay him at your peril.
Chief Stipe replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Incentivise weighted on performance not potential Incentivise was given 55.5kg for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images By Brad Waters 05:33pm • 14 September 2021 6 Comments Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper Greg Carpenter says the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup weights favour boom galloper Incentivise. Carpenter announced 55.5kg handicaps for Incentivise in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Incentivise was weighted 2.5kg below the Caulfield Cup topweight Sir Dragonet and the Melbourne Cup topweight Twilight Payment. TAB left Incentivise as a $4.50 favourite to win the Caulfield Cup and an $8 chance in Melbourne Cup betting. He said the RV handicapping panel found Incentivise difficult to assess but could only rate Incentivise on his performances to date. Incentivise would not attract a penalty if he won his likely next start in the Turnbull Stakes but winning the Caulfield Cup would render him liable for a Melbourne Cup weight penalty. Carpenter added the Peter Moody-trained galloper would have received more weight if projected performances were considered. “If he was handicapped on potential, he’d be the top weight,” Carpenter said. Carpenter said the fact Incentivise posted his maiden Group 1 win in last Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes cost him a penalty of about 2kg. “He would have definitely got less weight than what he’s got now,” Carpenter said. SUPERCOACH RACING IS BACK! SIGN UP FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN $10,000 AND WEEKLY PRIZES UP TO $1000 Greg Carpenter says the weights for the Caulfield Cup still favours Incentivise. Picture: AAP “Had he not won the Makybe Diva Stakes, even if he ran second or third, I’d say he would have got around 53.5kg. “Irrespective of the margin, it was an enormously impressive win.” Carpenter said Incentivise achieved an international rating of 117 for his Makybe Diva Stakes win. That figure left Incentivise only three points short of making the top 50 in the last round on the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings. Carpenter said Incentivise’s owners had contacted him before and after the Makybe Diva Stakes to discuss the gelding’s likely Caulfield and Melbourne Cup weights. He said the horse’s owners produced other examples of weights horses with similar records have received in recent years, including last year’s South Australian Derby winner Russian Camelot. Carpenter argued Incentivise was better off at the weights than Russian Camelot was last year. “When you take into account the fact Russian Camelot was a northern hemisphere three-year-old last year, Incentivise is 1kg better off,” Carpenter said. -
You got it. Stan was my Grandads cousin. Mervyn Glue. Carol Burns another great Australian actress (Queenslander) played Mrs Graham. Miranda Harcourt. Kate Harcourt. Denis Lil. Bruce Allpress Martyn Sanderson Chief Stipe Kelly Johnson (Goodbye Pork Pie) Mike Newell went onto to much acclaim directing Four Weddings and a Funeral, Harry Potter, Donnie Brasco, Pushing Tin, Mona Lisa Smile. Even some episodes of Coronation Street.
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Care of Children - Act and Reform NZ PRESS RELEASE Contact: Doug Graham Email: press-media@cocaar.nz (we will respond within 15 minutes to any legitimate media enquiries). FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 14 September 2021 Vaccinating Not At Risk Under 16s Without Parental Consent Is Not Justified The UK and USA have not fully approved the Pzifer vaccine for children - why has NZ? The New Zealand Government has pushed ahead with the mass vaccination of children aged 12 to 16 when the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has recommended not to. The JCVI which makes recommendations to the UK Government has stated “that the health benefits from vaccination are marginally greater than the potential known harms. However, the margin of benefit is considered too small to support universal vaccination of healthy 12 to 15 year olds at this time1”. Even the recent FDA full approval of the Pzifer vaccine did not include under 16 year olds because of “insufficient data.” What safety and efficacy data does NZ’s vaccine approval authorities e.g. the COVID-19 Vaccine Technical Advisory Group (CV TAG) and Medsafe have that the JCVI and FDA doesn’t? It is understandable that the JCVI has not recommended vaccinating under 16’s as there has been only limited blinded randomised control trials beyond Phase 1 for any vaccine for this cohort. Nor has there been sufficient longitudinal studies over time that would allay any long term safety concerns. That uncertainty alongside the low risk of serious illness to healthy children from catching Covid-19 does not warrant mass vaccinating children. There is already evidence of serious adverse effects from Covid-19 vaccination in children in the short term hence the JCVI recommendation. As the JCVI said in their 3 September 2021 press release 1 - “When deciding on childhood immunisations, the JCVI has consistently maintained that the main focus should be the benefits to children themselves, balanced against any potential harms to them from vaccination. As longer-term data on potential adverse reactions accumulates, greater certainty may allow for a reconsideration of the benefits and harms. This data may not be available for several months.” The JCVI made specific mention of “There is evidence of an association between mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis. This is an extremely rare adverse event. The medium- to long-term effects are unknown and long-term follow-up is being conducted”. Recent studies show that the JCVI caution may be warranted2 . Further given the lack of published data supporting the decisions of the MOH, CV TAG or Medsafe it is impossible to give informed consent either as a parent or a child. It is inconceivable that a 12 year old child in the absence of parental consent can fully understand the risks and benefits of the Covid-19 vaccine. Yet a 12 year old in New Zealand can by themselves now make an appointment online for a vaccination and if deemed “mature enough to make an informed decision” can be vaccinated without parental consent or knowledge. If the Government is to continue to actively promote and encourage children to be vaccinated then they need to publish the safety and efficacy data for widespread examination. They also need to state what liability the Government will accept in the event that adverse effects occur in the long term. Doug Graham, spokesperson for the children’s advocacy group COCAAR said “The Government needs to openly and transparently publish the data on which the decision to vaccinate children under 16 was made. As it stands it appears that the only motivation for doing so is to try and attain a higher vaccination rate at the expense of the long term safety of children.” “Without this information parents can’t be expected to make an informed consent to vaccinate their children and if they can’t, then it is ludicrous to suggest that a 12 year old child can unilaterally do so”, said Mr Graham. “Further the Government should be focussing its campaign on vaccinating adults and children who have underlying health issues, not healthy children who are not at risk from serious Covid-19 illness.” Mr Graham also said, “The NZ Government should make a clear and unequivocal policy announcement regarding what liability they will cover for any serious health issues that may arise in the future that are connected to the current mass vaccination of children.” In summary the Government does not have sufficient long term safety and efficacy data for the Pzifer vaccine to approve the mass vaccination of children under 16 years of age. Subsequently vaccination of this cohort should stop until such data is freely available or at the very least children under 16 should not be allowed to be vaccinated without parental consent. If the Government remains committed to this course of action it should publicly state what level of long term liability they will fund having accepted this liability on behalf of the vaccine manufacturer Pzifer. References: 1https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-updated-advice-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15 2https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1 Research paper indicates that the risk of cardiac myocarditis from mRNA vaccines is higher amongst 12-15 yr old boys than from Covid-19. #ENDS Word Count = 773 About COCAAR COCAAR has been created to: advocate and achieve REAL change to all the legislation and the rules that govern the Family Court process in New Zealand; to provide support and assistance to those who need to use the Family Justice process; advocate for the rights of children and their parents. Contact Name Spokesperson: Doug Graham Please contact via email in the first instance. We will respond within 15 minutes and phone back if phone numbers are provided. doug@cocaar.nz press-media@cocaar.nz
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This "record profit" you bang the drums about @JJ Flashin real terms is only $12m ahead of Bonkin Bayliss's result in 2013 (nominal figure was $142m). What's more in 2013 the TAB paid $70m in GST and Government Duty i.e. items the current mob don't have to worry much about. Also they didn't have any income from race fees - although that is currently only smoke and mirrors. So if we adjust 2013 accounts for items the current mob doesn't pay then that 2013 result was close to $200m or $225 in today's money. Now if that comparison wasn't bad enough lets compare with the last full set of non-Covid affected accounts i.e. 2018. The profit was $145m or $154m in today's money WITHOUT the change in duty, WITHOUT the change in race fields income AND WITHOUT the transfer of a number of expense items to the codes!!!! Now who is the womble?
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Will Incentivise do a Vow and Declare? Lay him at your peril.
Chief Stipe replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Certainly lifted his weight @Mardy!! Pundits are saying he'll get at 56.5kg probably 57kg. -
Will Incentivise do a Vow and Declare? Lay him at your peril.
Chief Stipe replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Well not long ago there was speculation that Incentivise wouldn't get enough weight to make the Melbourne Cup. Now he might get too much!! Incentivise’s Cup weighting game Incentivise steams to victory in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Picture: Vince Caligiuri—Getty Images. By Trenton Akers 03:18pm • 13 September 2021 0 Comments Incentivise’s tenacious victory in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes is set to see his Melbourne and Caulfield Cup weight skyrocket, with handicappers to announce weights for the spring features on Tuesday. The decision to run the boom stayer from Toowoomba on Saturday at Flemington, before the Cup weights were announced will see him lumped with a much higher weight than if handicappers were to go off his Queensland form which saw him win the Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup by an incredible 12-1/4 lengths. Executive General Manager of Racing at Racing Victoria Greg Carpenter confirmed Incentivise’s new status as a weight-for-age Group 1 winner will see him stung in the weights. “I have to admit going into the release of the Melbourne Cup weights – prior to Saturday I only had one piece of evidence to base him off, that was his win in the Tattersall’s Cup where he beat Mirage Dancer who has been a very good horse but isn’t at its best,” Carpenter said. “The margin was there for everyone to see but I thought he was very impressive on Saturday, (jockey) Brett (Prebble) had to use him a little bit to find the front and I must admit when Tofane loomed up, I thought he was going to be under real pressure but he found well. “Now we have two pieces of evidence on which to base our assessment when the weights come out.” Carpenter said Saturday’s win would not be judged a “penalty”, as no weights have previously been allotted for the Cups. Executive General Manager Racing at Racing Victoria Greg Carpenter. Picture: Mark Stewart. “The truth of the matter is the weights aren’t determined yet and when they are declared, you use every performance a horse has in its profile to make your assessment,” he said. “So absolutely, his winning performance on Saturday will make part of his assessment and the weight we determine for him. “He is a Group 1-winning weight-for-age horse. He’s not going to be a top weight but he is going to be higher in the weights than he would have been had he not run Saturday.” Managing owner and former trainer Steve Tregea confirmed his freak galloper would head to the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes in three weeks’ time next before beginning his assault on the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Carpenter confirmed the Turnbull Stakes would be a penalty-free race for Incentivise, should he perform as many expect him to, being an equal $4 favourite with Zaaki. “Once the weights are declared for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup, he can’t be penalised for winning the Turnbull Stakes for either race,” Carpenter said. Incentivise’s freak performance on Saturday franked his glittering Queensland campaign where he won his last four starts for Tregea by a combined 37.8 lengths. Read all news by Trenton Akers