the galah

those small fields over a mile at auckland tonight have been a race to the first bend,then go as slow as possible,which is really slow,and then just sprint up the straight again. You can see why the turnovers are so small. That race just run was a joke. The only driver who moved up on the walking pace was the driver who settled 50m last. He made his move 400m later while the drivers 3,4 and 5 back the fence showed no intention of trying. Of note in that race was the telfer runner forever me.Compare its form at nz cup time in the group races to now,and its lost not 1 leg but 2. I see their supposed number 1 stable driver ,j stormont has had only 1 win in 34 drives so far this year,

Lunatic fringe,thats a new one,i'll add that to your list..

thanks for that. I understand the points are the same for every standard bet,whether they be domestic or imported. They differ slightly if they are exotic bets on domestic or imported.. Your correct in that the fixed odds has lower points,but in my case i didn't bet on fixed odds at the time because i wanted to meet the threshold,which i did going on what they told me it was.. As you say,the level of rebates paid depend on which tier threshold you are in,and what type of bet type.You may for example get one and a half % more for bets in exotic pools like trifectas than you would an each way bet on the tote. Perhaps the best way for the TAB to be held accountable on whether they really are encouraging or discouraging so called elite customer spend on harness racing,would be for harness racing to ask for a breakdown in the figures. In other words what is the total spend of elite customers specifically on harness racing. And what % of $ paid out in rebates is a result of spend on harness racing. Then compare those figures to previous years. My opinion is harness racing is not being looked after by the TAB. The TAB or any future partner needs to be held accountable by those that run Harness racing.

And in australia that they had a 12% increase in its excess mortality rate last year over the previous year. Of the 20,000 excess deaths they put 13,000 down to having a covid connection,but that still left a 7,000 increase. They had a 17% increase in heart attack deaths to the normal average year.

When i talk about rebates,ir refers to money spent on someones TAB account only.

I had thought they pay the rebates on % of tote turnover.You need to be turning over large amounts to get much of a rebate. And i can't see the whale spending much on the tote.Every horse he tips pays so far under the odds that he won't be making much money if he is betting on the tote. As i have said before,nearly every major ff odds mover has the same thing happen to it on the tote. So a horse that closes under the odds on the ff market because the whale tipped it,will be doing the same on the tote. Maybe he does get a rebate if he loses on the ff odds. I'm not sure how it works if that were the case. The tab don't always stick to what they say as far as rewarding punters with rebates. I enquired a couple of years ago what the turnover threshold was. I did that turnover within 3 months during covid when there was no nz harness racing,betting on an australian states harness racing.They never rewarded me with rebates . When i inquired they told me the criteria had changed..So i stopped spending the $30,000 a month.I felt they mislead me.I don't spend anything on it now. I do think some of those that are lucky enough to get rebates, are well looked after by the tab people who handle the elite customers. However i would question how many of those receiving rebates from the tab, are receiving them by doing the bulk of their betting on nz harness. Thats a point that is very important to harness racing,and harness racing should not get sucked in by what the tab says around elite customer numbers. i know how it works,and nz harness racing pools have become too small to encourage larger wagering. The TAB with their algorithms on certain accounts are also killing the level of tote betting for some. In my opinion,the tab is doing harness racing a major disservice and part of the reason is because they don't care that much about harness racing anyway.They have other priorities.

1 placing from 4 tonight. To be fair we all have bad runs i suppose.Tomorrow may see his luck change.

Who knows,but maybe the whale reads bit of a yarn. Because this week he has gone for horses paying better prices. But this thread isn't about doubting his knowledge or selections,its about the impact he has on prices. Well tonight his 4 selections $4.50 into $3.60,$13 into $8.50,$3.80 into $2.50,$2.80 into $2.40 Tomorrow $6 into $4.50,$4.50 into $2.80,$8.50 into $6,$3 into $2.70,$2.70 into $2.20 and 1 thats price hasn't dropped. Thats just his whale watch tips above the betting markets on the tab website. So 9 of the 10 horses selected have seen significant drops in prices. All having been win and place movers 3 times in a matter of a few seconds. I would assume he is betting on 3 different tab accounts that the TAB have linked. The reality is tomorrows markets have only just come out and the price drops happened almost immediately. So i would suggest there is your answer why the TAB promote his selections each time on the website. Anyone who is betting on them is getting them at odds well below realistic value. The realistic value is gone with seconds of the odds coming out.So going by the law of averages,the TAB should always come out on top overall because punters are still investing ,despite the unrealistic odds. Maybe its trackside and its presenters who are the ones who should know better than to suggest punters back his selections,knowing they are always paying under the odds.

spatchcock. I had an idea you like commenting on people so i looked up your last 10 posts.Its not something i have done before,but it confirmed my memory still works to some extent. Heres how you have described other posters in your last 10 posts. whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there.

i could say..... stop your whinging when it comes to your comments about cookson......... But i'm not here to somehow attempt to undermine your opinion on something.I'll leave that to you. Having said that,this forum is about expressing opinions,so go for it. What does it matter you ask. Well i explained that. Obviously you didn't pick that up. I can say my first thoughts when i read your reply was to have a wee chuckle.

I agree the TAB's treatment of successful punters is contributing to the industries demise. The reality is ,as you have said many times,the TAB's current goal is to use whatever tools they have to discourage successful punter participation in nz. The tab's motto is we want your business, but only if you are a loser. Just ask some of their customers. Bookies jobs are to take an equal proportion of bets on all possible outcomes and to factor in a margin,which is their profit. Sure that means sometimes offering fixed odds at less than realistic prices depending on how much support each horse gets,,but that is what they should be able to do. Having said that,bookies should also have the confidence to back their own judgment at times. But they don't.For example i have been commenting about the whales selections recently. I struggle to believe the pathetic odds the tab offers for his selections are totally based on money bet. The TAB just seem so adverse to any loss that they fail to maximise their returns when the opportunity arises . People out there justify the tab's approach by saying its sensible policy to limit their losses from winning punters. They point to how overseas bookmakers operate.Those who do that fail to acknowledge that nz does not have that huge customer base. Also they fail to take into account how most successful punters in nz reinvest profits from betting back into other aspects of the industry.For example it can be in the form of breeding or as an owner paying training expenses or encouraging others to participate..And of course many successful punters invest substantial amounts on the tote,which the tab takes a cut from.The tab's current policies are and will continue a negative flow on effect to that.

He might be due to return a profit. He hasn't in the 3 meetings so far this week. Its not his fault that the horses he tips always drop about half their opening prices. Thats what this thread is about. Theres no denying his knowledge. i think its a worrying sign when punters know so little about what horses they bet on and follow his tips like sheep. The final dividends of his selections never are an accurate reflection of their chances. And its not like punters are getting on early at the higher prices. If you follow the fixed odds markets you would see that someone,i assume the whale,is punting them as soon as the markets come out the day before,so the sheep punters are always backing at the silly prices,irrespective of whether they win or lose. Ive often wondered if the whales tips are bet on by people who are laundering drug money or something like that. Or is he appealing to the casual punter? Commentator selections always see significant drops in prices,just not to the same extent as the whale. The whale is a great salesman.

The other 2 he has tipped at auckland are currently paying $1.65 to win and one he says to back for a place paying $2.50. his 3 tips at winton are currently paying to win $2.40,$2.70 and $6.

I know i've said it before,by why do punters keep backing the whale tips. I say that not because he doesn't know his stuff,but because every horse he ever tips seems to get huge punter support and they always pay well below their realistic prices.As a result anyone who follows his tips is not likely to make a profit.Just work out a dollar each way on his tips and you will see what i mean. Also,because every selection he ever makes has 3 drops in prices as soon as the tab puts the fixed odd prices up,i am assuming he is one of those punters who the tab have an algorithm on his account and accounts associated that he uses. Having watched him,i think its the confidence he displays and the hype the trackside presenters give him, that sells his selections to the punters. i much prefer the mark cookson approach myself. He gives most horses a mention and while he gives selections he doesb't push as hard and doesn't effect prices like others do. I reminds me a lot of how dave mcdonald did things.

Brodie did you see the mortality rate in nz went up 10% last year. It was 7.5 per 1000,up from 6.8 per 1000 in 2021 and averaged 6.7 per 1000 in the previous 10 years..They blamed it on covid ,yet if you look at the figures even if they included all the covid number(when of course they had officially included deaths of people with covid who had other serious health issues, as covid deaths),they only account for half of the increased death rate. Seems the pattern is the same in other highly vaccinated countries. Brodie on the money again i think.

Like i have said,i think as far as nz harness goes,you aren't being realistic in the supposed $ benefits. Yes the NZ TAB has been hopelesss in its decision making for years. Remember the costly website which we have and that they changed to in recent years was a disaster.It saw a huge drop off turnover in the first few months as they lost customer after customer out of frustration with the tab. It was discussed on here ,and you just had to shake your head at how dumb the TAB decision makers were. I've discussed on here how if you go into a tab and want to place a fixed odds,don't expect the tab staff to be able to help in showing you how its done.I did that last year and the 3 tabs i asked had no employees who knew how to fill in a betslip form to place a fixed odds bet.One telling me,i don't bet so why should i know,before walkng off. Then i rang the tab helpline and asked the. The fella was freindly and tried to help but told me he hadn't been trained in how to fill in a betslip for a fixed odds bet. By chance i discovered how to do it was on the back of the betslip. Then you have the fools at the TAB who slash the FF odds because they have algorithms set up to immediately slash both win and place odds if targeted punters put as little as a $20 place bet with potential loss of $10 to the tab book. I was talking to another punter just a couple of days ago who was moaning about that,I know some punters have reduced their turnover on the tote by close to a couple of million in the last couple of years because of how the tab algorithms impact fixed odds then flow through to tote prices. And if the tab odds setters were so bright,why haven't they worked out that many punters back on horses that are the win movers.Its like the tab is thinkimg,hey,we stand to lose only $20,but because it is from a targeted punters account,then lets slash the odds. Then,oh no,more punters are betting on that win movers,because its a win mover,the exact thing the bookies don't want.Its so dumb,yet they can't even figure that out.Why don't they just base the win movers on how they balance the books? Like i've also said.I personally recently bet on a horse with a $20 win bet 5 times in the space of 10 minutes. Each time the price dropped,each time i cashed out. In the end that horses price dropped 5 times on the ff win because of my 5 bets,yet i had not 1 cent on it because i had cashed out. I did it just to prove the point to someone i was talking to at the time.. I am not a big better,yet they even have algorithms on my account. So yes the nz TAB is doing a poor job . But to me i keep thinking its because they are well intentioned but just dumb.. So maybe they have had there chances,but to me a properly,clever nz tab was and is the better option.

That seems like wishful thinking to me. And this is a harness racing forum. Why would you think nz harness racing would be any better off? If its going to be such a multimillion dollar windfall as you predict for nz harness,then how come we don't see that being reflected in stake levels in australian harness racing.You can't tell me nz harness racing is going to be treated any better than australian harness racing is by an australian betting provider. I can't follow the logic behind your optimism. I do believe that the NZ tab is doing a poor job in encouraging wagering. However to me Its like a business who employ phone operators who are doing a poor job and that is impacting the level of work and income that the shareholders are receiving. Client numbers just aren't there,and the drop off in work load is being exacerbated by the businesses poor phone operator service. So what do the shareholders do. They could get take option a and get their act together and drive change so their current phone operators who they directly employ provide a service which leads to greater levels of work,confidence and greater returns. Or they could take option b,outsource the phones to a call centre. They give it to a call centre ,who have a high workload from similar type businesses.In effect they are relying on others to drive the change required to make their business grow,while at the same time losing input into how their product is sold and perceived.All the while the shareholders recognising their business is small compared with the volume the call centre handles for other more important clients. Well i know how this plays out. Customer service drops even further.Short term the shareholders see the positives,but long term they start to question the logic behind what they did,and regret sets in, but too late, there is no going back. Change has to be for the better,not for changes sake and wishful thinking. Thats what i believe will happen to harness racing with the proposed change.

i've always thought forbury a pretty good judge, but agree he just over does the negativity around some personalities who have diminished his returns from punting. When he goes on about the mark purdon amazing dream drive,he is referring to what many believe was an infamous example of team driving.Not everyone has that opinion,but many do.

History shows Brodie nearly always on the money.No doubt will be here as well. Brodie often calls it first.He was on the money when he predicted the TAB policies discouraging winning punters would have a very negative impact on turnovers. Personally i think thats one of the worst things happening to the industry. The TAB is run by people who have no idea of the consequences of what they do. Their lack of awareness of how they impact in a negative way the spend of some of their higher turnover tote punters is hard to comprehend. I've explained how it works before. But when you have the number crunchers at the TAB slashing ff win odds when they take a $20 place bet,with as little as a $10 liabilty to the TAB,you can see how farcical it all is. And if you don't have punters,that link in the chain is weakened and the strength of the whole chain diminishes. That ultimately effects stakes paid and numbers bred and so on.

Yes,mr chin one of only 2 i can think of who are not white. Gavin hampton a few decades ago now. Didn't he retire in the late 1980's.Was he maroon and blue,or something like that?Anything to do with Hamptons road in prebbleton where if you drive past you can see the remnants of a former harness track or two?I think he was well known, just a bit before my time.I do remember back in the 1980's christchurch used to have a morning and evening paper with well known racing writers,and it seemed everyone had an interest in racing. Krug seems to have gone a long way for a horse who seems past his best. I guess all the hard racing when he was young has taken its toll. I did back him a couple of times last year and he won both times,including the invercargill cup.So hes still a good horse,but even if he did get a start i wouldn't give him any chance from that draw.

As to the floods. I had a vehicle effected by a weather event not that long ago. It was a commercial vehicle and the annual insurance premium doubled thereafter.It went from $40 p.w. to $80 p.w when the policy was renewed a couple of months after the event. Then add to that the no claims bonus and hiring another vehicle while it was away for repair it cost me at least $4000 that year. Some did ok if they had agreed value insurance for their car and they were over insured,but insurance companies will need to recoup their loses with increased future premiums.

Something you can't help but notice is how harness racing is dominated by white skinned participants. Just look around, especially in the south island.Can you think of anyone who isn't. Its something that has been noticeable for years. The north island may have a couple of non whites,but you could still count them on one hand.

I think it is you that is out of touch. You mention inca. I think its reasonable to draw a comparison with the thinking between this topic and the INCA investigation.I will explain why. I believe a significant part of why INCA happened was down to the stipes at the time not doing proper oversight of those who it was easily perceived failed to drive their horses on their merits. .Examples involving high profile people, like the matt anderson drive on johnny white and the dexter dunn drive at forbury had no consequences when they should have. So at the time,before INCA,on forums like this some,including myself,were asking why no action and suggested there would be consequences of inaction. So why was the actions of the riu so weak at the time.Well it was because they factored in how they would be perceived by those who ran HRNZ and how industry participants would view policing of things that stipes from previous decades took no action over and they considered the flak they would take on internet sites like this one where issues are judged by many,not on the merits,but based on the personalities involved. So when it comes to this current topic involving the RIU/RIB. We have the very same people who perpetuated the myth that overlooking something is better than dealing with it,doing it again. I wonder if they will ever realise the consequences of basing thinking on personalities and not the merits of an argument.

Pretty much sums up the reality and significance of what occurred. In other words not a big deal. I had thought that its a no brainer that the industry doesn't want trackside coverage of anyone kicking or punching a horse. Its an issue officialdom deal with very rarely,so obviously drivers/starters attendants, etc are aware of that and also know the consequences. I can't see the justification for criticism of the RIB in these cases.. This thread again highlights the them and us mindset that some have.

I saw the terry chimel punch to the gut of his horse on trackside. It was just a half hearted punch ,as he looked to do something like put the hopple shorteners in. My comment to the wife at the time was they will fine him for that and it was a bit stupid to do it when tv cameras may be on him. I'm sure he meant the horse no harm and probably was just reminding the horse not to kick out or something,but drivers must know they may be on TV and that they get penalised for such things.