I replied to the above in the Messara thread but perhaps somewhat glibly. I thought the subject may be worthy of its own thread. The above Bill which had its first reading last August is currently in select committee with the Primary Production Committee due to report back to parliament in July 2018. Interestingly that is immediately subsequent to the due date for John Messara's report.
The bill proposes two charges for overseas operators, a consumption charge and an information use charge. There seems little issue with the latter except how and at what level the minister sets fees for that. Currently, it would generate only a small amount of revenue which I think operators will be happy to pay assuming the fees are fairly set.
The consumption charge however, is way more complicated.
In direct response to your question, estimates of the quantum of that vary widely and as I noted the DIA itself is not convinced of the NZRB figures and rightly so in my view. The legality of such a tax has also been called into question.
Sportsbet's submission for example says:
The Bill, if enacted in its present form, will :
(a) Have an overall detrimental impact on the New Zealand racing industry;
and
(b) Violate New Zealand’s international trade agreement obligations, including the New Zealand–Australia Closer Economic Relations Agreement, Protocol on Trade in Services (CER Services Protocol).
Sportsbet is concerned that the provisions contained in the Bill are anti-competitive and protectionist in nature. We believe they constitute arbitrary and unjustifiable discrimination against offshore
betting operators and therefore breach New Zealand’s obligations in the CER Services Protocol.
With respect to the quantum of that and your question though Chief Stipe, The DIA Regulatory Impact Statement concludes:
Conversely, the proposal that offshore gambling operators pay a charge when they take bets from people in New Zealand is not recommended. This option is considered to carry a higher risk of non-compliance than the information use charge. The projections for the possible revenue from this charge, while based on the best available information, are subject to large margins for error.
This means that there is a chance that the returns could vary significantly from what has been predicted and could end up being lower than the cost of administering the charge.
https://www.dia.govt.nz/diawebsite.nsf/Files/Racing-Amendment-Bill-Regulatory-Impact-Statement/$file/Regulatory-Impact-Statement-Offshore-racing-and-sports-betting.pdf
Of course the likes of Dillo who it seems can not only not count or multiply but also can't read or can't be bothered to, blithely continue, along with NZTR and the NZRB, to bandy about ridiculous and unfounded figures like the million a month without considering or reporting any kind of balanced view. Meanwhile, the NZRB are happily and quite irresponsibly spending that money in advance at this stage. I assume it will be part of Messara's brief to consider, comment on and make recommendations in relation to the Bill. I'm pretty confident he will come to a more sensible conclusion.