Forbury Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Michael Guerin has shown his talent again like FFA show day in November with his five short price losers.tonight he got one home that fell in at 1.80 with the other 4 short price favourites all losing.hes surely talented to be able to pick constantly odds on favourites that lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 6 hours ago, Forbury said: Michael Guerin has shown his talent again like FFA show day in November with his five short price losers.tonight he got one home that fell in at 1.80 with the other 4 short price favourites all losing.hes surely talented to be able to pick constantly odds on favourites that lose. Tipping short priced favorites seems to be the way tipsters go these days. I always believe those who do the tipping should state what they think is a fair price as well when tipping a horse. And backing several short priced favorites iin one night in my opiniion is not the way to make much money. You either win,but not much,or lose but not much. I never had a bet at aucklnad,but who would have picked mach shard to beat self assured. On form that had to be impossible to predict. And i watched All Cashed Up closely as i thought it looked the bet of the night,it was actually paying a good price for what seemed a sitter. I just watched it hoping it didn't win,like you do when you have no money on. Well i thought she couldn't have driven it any better if you were wanting it to get beaten. It was one of those races where you watch and think ,why on earth doesn't she just move up a bit closer,when they were going so slow? You could see the race slipping from her grasp like a slow movie,and sure enough it did. But that happens sometimes.You can pick the horse who looks a winner,but they don't always win. Edited February 16 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I thought Guerin was a professional punter and writing for the Herald and doing the radio show was just a hobby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 2 hours ago, the galah said: Tipping short priced favorites seems to be the way tipsters go these days. I always believe those who do the tipping should state what they think is a fair price as well when tipping a horse. And backing several short priced favorites iin one night in my opiniion is not the way to make much money. You either win,but not much,or lose but not much. I never had a bet at aucklnad,but who would have picked mach shard to beat self assured. On form that had to be impossible to predict. And i watched All Cashed Up closely as i thought it looked the bet of the night,it was actually paying a good price for what seemed a sitter. I just watched it hoping it didn't win,like you do when you have no money on. Well i thought she couldn't have driven it any better if you were wanting it to get beaten. It was one of those races where you watch and think ,why on earth doesn't she just move up a bit closer,when they were going so slow? You could see the race slipping from her grasp like a slow movie,and sure enough it did. But that happens sometimes.You can pick the horse who looks a winner,but they don't always win. I also found the drive on All Cashed Up late in the race a bit puzzling. Crystal drove the horse quiet and pretty. Was going beautifully at the 400 but didn't move. Only really asked the horse for an effort at the 75 metre mark when not close enough to win. Horse finished faster than every other runner in the race. Watching thousands of races over many decades confirmed to me the horse still had plenty left in the tank. With a degree of confidence, I feel if Crystal had asked for an authentic effort earlier in the home straight, All Cashed Up would have at least run second. My judgement was either All Cashed Up was at risk of blowing to bits so the driver was keeping the horse from losing it.....or there is a more important target on the horizon...aka "managing the horse" Interestingly, nothing was said about the drive but David Butcher with the runner up Liaison was questioned over his lack of vigour in the home straight. To my eye, his drive was consistent with the way David drives and several other factors which he explained to the stewards. All Cashed Up on the other hand was fav and the question should have at least been asked. My conclusion. I've either forgotten how to read races .....or the Stewards were too busy focusing on Butcher on Liaison to even notice All Cashed Up. I speak via observation rather than pocket. I had one wager on the night. Chase The Dream https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=7C9F0B39-13B6-4DE9-B282-D75E6685551A&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE Edited February 16 by Walt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Isn’t he related to Leo? They both love themselves 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The great leveller is HANDICAP racing . designed in history to give em' All a Chance. As Walt tipped at Marlborough Cup last month , Mossdale Ben as a special. Went a great race too, But 4th was his lot off 30m. going 3 seconds faster than those off the front is a HUGE Ask. Auckland did it very well last night. Applied Handicaps to put the better horses back a bit so all had a chance. Mach Shards 10m start enough to beat self Assured. JASINOVA in the feature trot . buzzing along for Dr Chin for a great win off the front , had enough start with the Handicap to hold out good trotters like Sacred Mountain (35m) and Sunny's Sister the recent trotting Derby winner was struggling to get into it.(off 25m) A great leveller !! All Cashed up couldn't bridge the Gap either . you have to trot 2 and 1/2 seconds faster than those off the front to win these sort of races off handicaps like that. Sundee's Son was gifted Rowe Cups and Dominions 'Off The Front' before retiring recently. A real shame as that took the Thrill and Leveller of the Handicap out of it. . Copy That with same advantage to win a non-handicapped 2nd Nz Cup too. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) Can Gammalite please explain to me why the top races in harness racing need to be Handicaps, whilst Usain Bolt was never handicapped at the Olympics? It can't be the betting angle as you can bet on the Olympics Edited February 19 by Michael Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 hours ago, Michael said: It can't be the betting angle as you can bet on the Olympics The Olympics don't rely on wagering as their sole source of income. Usain Bolt at a $1.01 isn't going to attract a lot of punting is it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 hours ago, Michael said: Can Gammalite please explain to me why the top races in harness racing need to be Handicaps, whilst Usain Bolt was never handicapped at the Olympics? It can't be the betting angle as you can bet on the Olympics Competitive racing mate . Easiest answer yet. Champions of all time were put off handicaps So all runners have some chance to win. If Cardigan Bay and Lordship were always off the front they probably would never of been beaten. in modern times what have you seen happen ? Fields have dropped away mate. Won't be long to the NZ CUp won't have a full field at this rate. Mach Shard and other good horses like that had extended Australian campaigns because they can't beat Copy That off the front for example . Many Nz owners just sell them as can't beat Allstars off the front (and lately brother Barry) The Fields there have got Smaller and Smaller as No-one will Bother to take them On. Butt's race horses in WA currently . to be competitive. even leading Trainer DUNN's are struggling ? with pacers . But of course had the No handicap Bonus wins with Sundee's Son in the trotting races recently . The opponents were No Chance . PRIME EXAMPLE for Michael >>>>>>Not long ago Mark Purdon raced last Years Brilliant Dominion Group 1 Show Day winner Oscar Benanova off a 30m handicap in a support race on Dominion Day. He knew he COULD NOT BEAT Sundee's Son off the front in the Big race on the day . Mark Won the Handicap race ok. A competitive Trainer who looks after his horses. (and now winning the Dominion himself with OscarB now Sundee retired ) Dunn's more likely to put their pacers in Midclass Handicap races nowadays , around the provincial circuit Cups and that. Marlborough Nelson and that . They're Still Run as Handicaps . For Competitive racing . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honestjohn Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Goowin is a tool. I don't listen to any tipsters. However I do listen to people who work in stables. Example, a trainer I was at workouts with had two horses in same heat. My horse had a white blaze and the other one didn't. I noticed they had swapped saddle numbers. I asked why, trainer said we don't want her starting favourite next start. My horse won easily but anyone at the track only remembered the winner. The staff all knew ours was kept quiet. Hj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 hours ago, Gammalite said: Competitive racing mate . Easiest answer yet. Champions of all time were put off handicaps So all runners have some chance to win. If Cardigan Bay and Lordship were always off the front they probably would never of been beaten. in modern times what have you seen happen ? Fields have dropped away mate. Won't be long to the NZ CUp won't have a full field at this rate. Mach Shard and other good horses like that had extended Australian campaigns because they can't beat Copy That off the front for example . Many Nz owners just sell them as can't beat Allstars off the front (and lately brother Barry) The Fields there have got Smaller and Smaller as No-one will Bother to take them On. Butt's race horses in WA currently . to be competitive. even leading Trainer DUNN's are struggling ? with pacers . But of course had the No handicap Bonus wins with Sundee's Son in the trotting races recently . The opponents were No Chance . PRIME EXAMPLE for Michael >>>>>>Not long ago Mark Purdon raced last Years Brilliant Dominion Group 1 Show Day winner Oscar Benanova off a 30m handicap in a support race on Dominion Day. He knew he COULD NOT BEAT Sundee's Son off the front in the Big race on the day . Mark Won the Handicap race ok. A competitive Trainer who looks after his horses. (and now winning the Dominion himself with OscarB now Sundee retired ) Dunn's more likely to put their pacers in Midclass Handicap races nowadays , around the provincial circuit Cups and that. Marlborough Nelson and that . They're Still Run as Handicaps . For Competitive racing . You seem to have gone off on a tangent I never said no Handicap racing I merely stated that the top races for the best horses should not be Handicaps Isn't the whole point of a Competition to find the best? Chief Stipe is just a dickhead who has to disagree so he brings up Usain Bolt's odds What about Super Rugby? What about the NRL? Are their games handicapped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 hours ago, Michael said: Chief Stipe is just a dickhead who has to disagree so he brings up Usain Bolt's odds Didn't you bring it up? On 20/02/2024 at 12:46 AM, Michael said: Can Gammalite please explain to me why the top races in harness racing need to be Handicaps, whilst Usain Bolt was never handicapped at the Olympics? It can't be the betting angle as you can bet on the Olympics 5 hours ago, Michael said: What about Super Rugby? What about the NRL? Are their games handicapped? What about them? You are not comparing apples with apples. Neither of those sports rely on wagering for their income. There are ample opportunities for the best horses to prove they are the best. Why not continue to have time honoured Handicap races that provide an attractive wagering event? Seems to work for the Melbourne Cup!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Didn't you bring it up? What about them? You are not comparing apples with apples. Neither of those sports rely on wagering for their income. There are ample opportunities for the best horses to prove they are the best. Why not continue to have time honoured Handicap races that provide an attractive wagering event? Seems to work for the Melbourne Cup!! Sounds or looks like to me that Michael is handicapped. Only a month or two ago he was bemoaning Invercargill having its Cup at the same time as the so called Northern top races. Invercargill race their race then as their are no races in the north over Xmas, New Year, it's 2024, not 1974, times have changed. You have to have handicaps for some races, it's little wonder less people are bothering when the odds are stacked against you. There are actually more races for top class horses than we tend to think, many rating 60+ races have a maximum back mark of 30m or so, they have a choice to turn up or not then they have all in FFA, note how those fields attract 6 starters of less, lots just don't bother. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Didn't you bring it up? No, I didn't bring his odds up, you did. Try to keep up There are ample opportunities for the best horses to prove they are the best. Why not continue to have time honoured Handicap races that provide an attractive wagering event? Seems to work for the Melbourne Cup!! Poor example, no doubt you want the Cox Plate to be a Handicap event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Sounds or looks like to me that Michael is handicapped. Reading your posts over the last 6 months there remains little doubt who is handicapped Of course I complained about the Invercargill Cup being a waste of money It was, the ROI was ratshit You can't seem to grasp the fact that we don't have enough top horses to cater for them the length of NZ You have to have handicaps for some races I never said you didn't have to Classic case of you not reading other's posts and then prattling on Edited February 27 by Michael Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 hours ago, Michael said: Didn't you bring it up? No, I didn't bring his odds up, you did. Try to keep up There are ample opportunities for the best horses to prove they are the best. Why not continue to have time honoured Handicap races that provide an attractive wagering event? Seems to work for the Melbourne Cup!! Poor example, no doubt you want the Cox Plate to be a Handicap event Are you talking to yourself now? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 hours ago, Michael said: Seems to work for the Melbourne Cup!! Poor example, no doubt you want the Cox Plate to be a Handicap event You're arguing against yourself now. BTW the Cox Plate is Weight for Age - essentially a handicap using a different method!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Is Michael the one and only Mick? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAB For Ever Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Michael , IMO ,is a vastly experienced Harness participant from the Top of the South. As a breeder ,trainer , driver, Administrator , Fund raiser he has a lot of knowledge of the Industry's workings. I'm unsure why the Chief is so grumpy with him ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, TAB For Ever said: Michael , IMO ,is a vastly experienced Harness participant from the Top of the South. As a breeder ,trainer , driver, Administrator , Fund raiser he has a lot of knowledge of the Industry's workings. I'm unsure why the Chief is so grumpy with him ! Lol Michael is not Michael Guerin! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 13 hours ago, TAB For Ever said: Michael , IMO ,is a vastly experienced Harness participant from the Top of the South. As a breeder ,trainer , driver, Administrator , Fund raiser he has a lot of knowledge of the Industry's workings. So the issues the industry are facing are his fault? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAB For Ever Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: So the issues the industry are facing are his fault? One could possibly look at it from that angle....I prefer the other angle that he helped keep patching up a sick industry and kept it going. His top of the south area often had someone sitting at the top table of HRNZ so they definitely had imput. The Industry's issue go back many years and in a small country of like NZ and the attitudinal changes toward gambling , the rising cost of living etc ,etc ,etc etc....all been discussed a zillion tines little wonder foal numbers and the farmers who ran a few horses plus interest in general has slumped ! Recently I researched a couple of those Torle / Torpi horses and there were dozens of them bred . One...Torni ,had 59 starts for NO placings...the only stakes it won were a $150 for a 4th and $87 for 5th's and a few $35-$40 ones for turning up at NZ Met. Total stakes $532. Resilient folk back then ! Times have changed...of course the Volunteers gone from Admin so Bureaucracy takes a lot of money out but that can't change much . Selling a bit of land and building a 'slush fund' like the ATC tried and it's Members largely agreed was one way to stop the rot .....that ended badly ,now selling horses to Australia is the thing keeping many afloat as it has for years. Even Rugby seems to be losing ground , propped up by overseas money and in Cricket the money now with the players ......its a changing world Chief. Even when you are on the right track , you can still get run over if you don't keep moving ! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 19 hours ago, TAB For Ever said: One could possibly look at it from that angle....I prefer the other angle that he helped keep patching up a sick industry and kept it going. His top of the south area often had someone sitting at the top table of HRNZ so they definitely had imput. The Industry's issue go back many years and in a small country of like NZ and the attitudinal changes toward gambling , the rising cost of living etc ,etc ,etc etc....all been discussed a zillion tines little wonder foal numbers and the farmers who ran a few horses plus interest in general has slumped ! Recently I researched a couple of those Torle / Torpi horses and there were dozens of them bred . One...Torni ,had 59 starts for NO placings...the only stakes it won were a $150 for a 4th and $87 for 5th's and a few $35-$40 ones for turning up at NZ Met. Total stakes $532. Resilient folk back then ! Times have changed...of course the Volunteers gone from Admin so Bureaucracy takes a lot of money out but that can't change much . Selling a bit of land and building a 'slush fund' like the ATC tried and it's Members largely agreed was one way to stop the rot .....that ended badly ,now selling horses to Australia is the thing keeping many afloat as it has for years. Even Rugby seems to be losing ground , propped up by overseas money and in Cricket the money now with the players ......its a changing world Chief. Even when you are on the right track , you can still get run over if you don't keep moving ! Funny you mention that breed…. I remember a horse called Torpast, put $50 on it to win in the 80s, came from last to win at Forbury paying double figures. Think it won a couple more… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 21 hours ago, TAB For Ever said: One could possibly look at it from that angle....I prefer the other angle that he helped keep patching up a sick industry and kept it going. By going down the path of propping the industry up with Pokie money? Instead of making it profitable in its own right. I guess that's why he doesn't support Handicap racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 21 hours ago, TAB For Ever said: Even when you are on the right track , you can still get run over if you don't keep moving ! Only if you are on a train track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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