barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 1 hour ago, All The Aces said: Barry, if you don't believe that the shifting of a running rail can create a bias then you probably shouldn't be punting. ? So I am guessing you had a huge winning day?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 I ended up well in front Barry because the evident bias so much favoured Italian Lover that I had a decent bet on her to win and got a nice slice of the trifecta. That made for a winning day and it was boosted by backing Richard Of Yorke in the last at Trentham. Thanks for asking. ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, All The Aces said: I ended up well in front Barry because the evident bias so much favoured Italian Lover that I had a decent bet on her to win and got a nice slice of the trifecta. That made for a winning day and it was boosted by backing Richard Of Yorke in the last at Trentham. Thanks for asking. ? Good stuff then, interesting though that Italian Lover didnt lead & got a dream ride though on the rail. Funny as it is though, as the riders seemed to not pick up on the perceived bias and still let leaders get away with murder up front. Was tempo of the races more at play or your so called bias?. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 I'm NOT a punter so not getting into this debate....however I am constantly gobsmacked as to how few senior riders have any idea how fast they are going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 2 hours ago, barryb said: Good stuff then, interesting though that Italian Lover didnt lead & got a dream ride though on the rail. Funny as it is though, as the riders seemed to not pick up on the perceived bias and still let leaders get away with murder up front. Was tempo of the races more at play or your so called bias?. She was ridden exactly as she had been at her previous two starts ie in the trail and instead of coming outside the leader as she did in both those runs she got a lovely run through along the fence at the 500m and it was all over red rover from there. From gate two she was always going to be sitting up handy and was always going to be on the better part of the track also. When you get clubs protecting the inside part of a track by putting the rail out for a number of meetings and then bringing the rail back to the true position exposing a better surface it can create a fast strip ie a less worn and cut up section of the track. Most serious punters are aware of this and would never fail to check where the rail has been positioned at prior meetings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 O,k it is taken that Barry does not subscribe to the fact that by re-positioning the running rail to the true position that it can create a bias by providing a fast lane of better ground, particularly when the inside hasn't been used in recent meetings. How many others think he is correct? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, All The Aces said: She was ridden exactly as she had been at her previous two starts ie in the trail and instead of coming outside the leader as she did in both those runs she got a lovely run through along the fence at the 500m and it was all over red rover from there. From gate two she was always going to be sitting up handy and was always going to be on the better part of the track also. So it wasn't the track then, perfect riding and sitting in a dream position is what counted?. or were those tracks biased as well?. Edited June 11, 2019 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 1 hour ago, All The Aces said: When you get clubs protecting the inside part of a track by putting the rail out for a number of meetings and then bringing the rail back to the true position exposing a better surface it can create a fast strip ie a less worn and cut up section of the track. Most serious punters are aware of this and would never fail to check where the rail has been positioned at prior meetings. & please tell us of what use is that knowledge to you? how much weighting do you place on it?, is it one of Thomass wacko formulas that are plucked from his arse and have zero basis of fact or what?. As I have zero idea how to quantify the advantage or disadvantage I can't take it into consideration, & you would have to admit that you have no idea either until about 5 or 6 races have been run and then its still a guess. Thomass will surely pop on here with some nutty formula to educate us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) Of course it is a valuable tool Barry. Get a shopping trolley. Is it easier to run it on rough cut up ground or smooth even ground? Edited June 11, 2019 by All The Aces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Still you have told us nothing, very similar to Thomass in that the theory exists but what’s the practice. Please tell us all how knowing this helps you decide what horse is going to be overs and a great bet?. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 It's relatively simple. You really do surprise me that you never factor this into your betting. In general terms find something that can run on or near the lead that has drawn well or one that can begin quickly and get over up front. The others further back then need luck to get through on a narrow fast strip and those that can't have to then come out wider in the slower part of the track to make their runs. You will find that the effort tells and after looming don't finish off whilst the ones inside on the faster lane keep going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 So NO different then to 80% of all races where one of the first 4 turning win, easy then. So a leader like No Loitering that opened at $60s and by the time the sheeple had finished getting on it jumps at $8s, that’s the type you mean then. Barrier draws are obviously important then and so I’m guessing weight must be as well as lighter weighted must run faster surely?. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted June 11, 2019 Author Share Posted June 11, 2019 I'd like to know more about your 80% - first 4 turning home stat. How many runners in a race on average? That would have a massive impact on that statistic. If you're betting in Sydney, where the fields are around 7-9 runners, or if you're backing at Riccarton, where field sizes can be around 14-16. I presume you have that knowledge on hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, barryb said: So NO different then to 80% of all races where one of the first 4 turning win, easy then. So a leader like No Loitering that opened at $60s and by the time the sheeple had finished getting on it jumps at $8s, that’s the type you mean then. Barrier draws are obviously important then and so I’m guessing weight must be as well as lighter weighted must run faster surely?. You are the one who mentioned No Loitering however those sheeple as you call them could consider themselves unlucky (no I didn't back him but he is a black booker on the run). Go and look at his run. Drew the outside gate of 14. Jumped and went forward but Noble Star drawn just inside him also went forward and kept him out. At no stage did No Loitering get to the lead. Instead he ended up four wide the entire trip and ended up fourth only three quarters of a length from the winner. Considering the tough run four wide without cover and all the extra ground covered one could consider him a certainty beaten. You keep doing what you are doing Barry and take no notice of any advice given, after all the two systems that you tried to show everyone so far this year have proven to be dismal failures...…....now perhaps if you had considered track bias......? Edited June 11, 2019 by All The Aces 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 11 hours ago, barryb said: As I have zero idea Exactly Bazz.. This is the crux of the matter...and ATA has demonstrated the entire scenario beautifully...it's like I've got a twin! NO LOITERING was always going to be caught wide being an on pace runner... ...in the inferior ground..you know...as evidenced by the pen readings which I got hold of... "Caught 4wide without cover"..that's the form line that you'll totally ignore As we all know you and your BFF grasshead...Are pig ignorant Grasshead..."how come they race without cover in Harness" hahahaha ...either before the 'expected scenario' or after....when analysing the performance...you ignore it You were very unlucky..it didn't draw the fast lane then...but most Punters rightly dismissed its chances when drawing wide... ...ON A FAST LANE TRACK BIAS Read that over and over again...in fact tattoo that on your noggin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 2 hours ago, SLB2.0 said: I'd like to know more about your 80% - first 4 turning home stat. How many runners in a race on average? That would have a massive impact on that statistic. If you're betting in Sydney, where the fields are around 7-9 runners, or if you're backing at Riccarton, where field sizes can be around 14-16. I presume you have that knowledge on hand. Haha, what correlation would field size have to the stat?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, All The Aces said: You are the one who mentioned No Loitering however those sheeple as you call them could consider themselves unlucky (no I didn't back him but he is a black booker on the run). Go and look at his run. Drew the outside gate of 14. Jumped and went forward but Noble Star drawn just inside him also went forward and kept him out. At no stage did No Loitering get to the lead. Instead he ended up four wide the entire trip and ended up fourth only three quarters of a length from the winner. Considering the tough run four wide without cover and all the extra ground covered one could consider him a certainty beaten. You keep doing what you are doing Barry and take no notice of any advice given, after all the two systems that you tried to show everyone so far this year have proven to be dismal failures...…....now perhaps if you had considered track bias......? I backed it at $61, so dont need to check anything, The trouble with what you and Thomass keep stating is that they are theoretical and is unable to be put into practice, neither of you have put up any valid way that the information can be used. Its entirely subjective and there has incredibly minor value at best. Edited June 11, 2019 by barryb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 48 minutes ago, barryb said: I backed it at $61, so dont need to check anything, The trouble with what you and Thomass keep stating is that they are theoretical and is unable to be put into practice, neither of you have put up any valid way that the information can be used. Its entirely subjective and there has incredibly minor value at best. ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 52 minutes ago, barryb said: I backed it at $61, so dont need to check anything, The trouble with what you and Thomass keep stating is that they are theoretical and is unable to be put into practice, neither of you have put up any valid way that the information can be used. Its entirely subjective and there has incredibly minor value at best. Note the perfect juxtaposition Bazz... NL and Money Trail...both drew 14... NL caught 4 wide without cover..MT scoots to the lead...on the faster rail surface Hawton before the race..."MT drawn wide but by that time should be better out there" No no no...Jaz knew the on pace rail bias was the place to be...Hawton was cruising it in Synders and knew nothing about it... Alors...you use 'theory' in selecting every day...it's part of the process...PUNTING 101... ..you simply theorise that on pace runners win most races and have a better chance...just like Gai... I simply can't understand why you wouldn't increase the chances of a neddy drawn on a faster part of the ground...both on pace runners....and one drawn out Of course you'd substantially increase the % chance... but you do counterintuitive so well...you wouldn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted June 11, 2019 Author Share Posted June 11, 2019 1 hour ago, barryb said: Haha, what correlation would field size have to the stat?. You can't be serious, right? The first four around the turn have an 80% win rate. If it's a five-horse field, the chances of that happening significantly increase as opposed to the field being 16. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said: You can't be serious, right? The first four around the turn have an 80% win rate. If it's a five-horse field, the chances of that happening significantly increase as opposed to the field being 16. Its like fishing with dynamite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 18 hours ago, All The Aces said: O,k it is taken that Barry does not subscribe to the fact that by re-positioning the running rail to the true position that it can create a bias by providing a fast lane of better ground, particularly when the inside hasn't been used in recent meetings. How many others think he is correct? 18 hours have passed and not one person thinks you are correct Barry. Hmmm..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Bazz likes a good olde rastle though ATA... ...more than likely in the hay...and then a good olde world spanking to finish no doubt... After all..where he's been it's so insipidly boring that even disagreeing is agin da law.. Herman won't allow it... it's wall to wall wall flower v tinker bells... with a powder puff pillow full of star dust for the combatants... poof poof ouch...is about as rastly as it gets... he's lurving it here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, All The Aces said: 18 hours have passed and not one person thinks you are correct Barry. Hmmm..... Is it a majority correct thing is it?. 99% lose remember & for the very reasons you are advocating silly non existent bias statements. Edited June 12, 2019 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted June 12, 2019 Author Share Posted June 12, 2019 You must be happy to be a part of the 1% Barry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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