All The Aces Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 It's like banging your head on the dunny door! If you don't believe Thomass or myself then take this in from a large betting website from Australia: Hopefully you will learn something instead of burying your head in the sand at Te Rapa. Track bias has become a hot topic in racing over recent years and an understanding of the concept is essential for every punter. Once upon a time there was actually debate in racing circles about whether bias actually existed or whether it was a myth… simply punters reading too much into results on the day that could be explained by race tempo or other factors. Nowadays track bias is accepted as a real factor in racing and debate is more about whether it existed at a given meeting and to what extent. What is track bias? When we use the term “track bias” we are referring to anything that creates an advantage or disadvantage to horses racing in a certain position and / or certain part of the track on a given day. For example, at Flemington on Newmarket / Australian Cup Day (2017), horses racing on the rail or one off were advantaged compared to those that tried to run on 3 or more horses off the fence in the straight. Since re-opening the Eagle Farm track in June 2016, we have regularly seen horses racing well off the fence in the straight do much better than those that were closer to the inside. The presence of track bias not only has an impact on how you might perceive winning chances and betting opportunities on that day, but also how you interpret individual horse performances out of the meeting. What causes track bias? There are a number of factors than can cause or at least influence track bias: Wear & Tear Wear from previous races or track gallops is a key factor. If the rail is moved or left in a position which exposes the ground from a recent race meeting, then that worn ground can become either a clear advantage or disadvantage. If the turf has recovered well without damage from the last meeting, then it will generally be more compacted and firmer (faster) for horses to gallop on compared to the fresh ground. If the ground still shows signs of being marked / damaged from the recent meeting, then it won’t hold together as well once horses start running over it again. The fresher ground away from the wear and tear will be faster to gallop on. Taa DaaaH!!! "Exactly as happened at Te Rapa on Saturday" There can also be wear from track gallops or trials / jump outs at certain venues where they use the course proper. That’s typically well away from the inside fence, but again, it can make those sections of the track firmer to softer to gallop on at a future meeting. It would be nice if all race meetings were held on fresh ground, but that’s not always possible so previous wear and tear certainly plays a role. How much difference can bias make in a race? The effect of bias on a race will largely depend on how significant the factors creating the bias are. Rest assured though that the presence of notable track bias will have a clear impact on the results of each race. Betting on the day Bias is still one of the factors which the market does not fully compensate for in its pricing, even as it develops on the day. That means you have the opportunity to improve your betting results by adjusting your decision making in those cases where you’re confident that a bias either will exist (if predicting before the meeting) or actually does exist after a couple of races. Depending on the bias, I can offer you the following advice for betting: 1. If you expect or notice that runners closer to the inside and / or closer to the lead are likely to be advantaged: Don’t back any horse you think will settle further back than 1st to 4th in the run, no matter how much you like them. History shows that when those closer to the fence / lead are advantaged, horses further back in the field lose a significant amount on turnover (>40% POT). Is the market really making a 50%+ mistake in the price of the horse you like? It takes discipline as you will miss the odd winner, but over time those bets will cost you a small fortune and you will be far better off avoiding them. If you like an on-pace runner, then bet with confidence. Don’t be put off by a wide barrier, uncertainty about the distance, weight or any other secondary factor. The percentages are in your favour. Scenarios where you like a horse that will settle handy to the lead and the main danger is likely to settle back are especially appealing. 2. If you expect or notice that the inside will be a disadvantage and horses off the fence will be best suited: Consider passing on the entire meeting, depending on how significant the bias is. Horses that get wider can still be disadvantaged if not wide enough or in the fastest lanes (i.e. those that might have been compacted more by track equipment driving over them.) Furthermore, the pattern can change as the meeting progresses with winners coming progressively wider in the straight. This scenario makes confident betting very difficult. If you decide to bet, then barriers should be viewed in the opposite way to the common perception. i.e. inside barriers are a disadvantage and wider barriers are an advantage, regardless of likely in-run position. Statistically speaking, barriers 1 to 4 when the inside section of a track is clearly a disadvantage have a 4 x worse POT% compared to barriers 10+ Horses that are drawn inside and are likely to settle midfield or worse in the run are the very worst type of betting prospects. On the other hand, they can be good lay betting prospects. The best type of betting prospects in this scenario are mid to wide drawn horses that will settle midfield or just off and look to peel wide and run on in the straight. Conclusion Track bias is an important factor in racing and while it may be easier to ignore, a little bit of understanding and thought can make a big difference to your betting results over the course of a year. You don’t need to become obsessed about it or look to attribute every unexpected result to bias in the track. However, you should maintain a general awareness when watching races and pay attention to respected experts that might comment on it either before or during a meeting. When it seems relevant, use that information with the above guidelines to help make your betting decisions. There are no fixed rules, it’s about weighing up all of the information and making decisions that feel right to you, regardless of the race outcome. If you do that consistently, your results will definitely improve and every extra percentage point you gain is great for both your confidence as a punter and of course, bank balance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said: You must be happy to be a part of the 1% Barry. Never said I was, I just accept with racing that what appears obvious and logical is most likely not the case & if more than a few think it then its almost certainly not the case. If any thought matches Tommy's then its time to rethink. Tommy works on probables, hearsay, could be, statement of fact, guesswork, luck etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Yet again though ATA, you havent given us anything to work with. When are you going to decide there is a bias? after race 3 or race 7 or when? as up until you decide there is a bias it could just be a statistical anomoly or are you going to just do a Tommy guesswork thing and decide that before the meeting starts there is a bias?. As I said to you I backed No Loitering at $61 first thing, using your theory you would back it possibly 30mins before the race when it was under $15, I know which type of punting ends up better in the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, barryb said: Never said I was, I just accept with racing that what appears obvious and logical is most likely not the case & if more than a few think it then its almost certainly not the case. If any thought matches Tommy's then its time to rethink. Tommy works on probables, hearsay, could be, statement of fact, guesswork, luck etc. BLOODY BIASED BARRY'S BIAS agin BIAS BLUNDERERS another BLOODY BET... Thatll be on ya punting tombstone Bazz... ...look even your bff dude Neilzy talks about it I advised subscribers to take a wide berth on Te Rapa and Trentham yesterday which turned out to be badly biased. Having said that though, on top selections Sultan Of Swing, $8.50, and Italian Lover $9 into $6s did win well at good value. If you were watching Trentham, New York Minute became the lay of the day when drawing the inside with the young apprentice on. The outside was clearly the place to be so that was a good case of watching for the bias developing and finding a strong lay ( to lose ) bet. And well done to Dr Watson, Sylvia Kay and the young apprentice to win that race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 hour ago, barryb said: Yet again though ATA, you havent given us anything to work with. When are you going to decide there is a bias? after race 3 or race 7 or when? as up until you decide there is a bias it could just be a statistical anomoly or are you going to just do a Tommy guesswork thing and decide that before the meeting starts there is a bias?. As I said to you I backed No Loitering at $61 first thing, using your theory you would back it possibly 30mins before the race when it was under $15, I know which type of punting ends up better in the long term. It was all explained to you in my very first post on page 1 of this thread Barry: "Of course there was a huge bias at Te Rapa on Saturday. The rail had been moved into the true position leaving a beautiful strip of three metres that had not been used at their last three meetings which were all in May. It was obvious before the meeting even started where the best place to be on the track would be." I wasn't rocket science to figure out where the bias would be from the start of the day. Punting 101 Barry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 I'm feeling a little benevolent to my olde bff Bazz... I hate seeing some f'er getting absolutely spanked...besides it's agin the Geneva Convention...under 'cruel punishment' Bazz's rangatira has spoken on this...So hold your piece for a quick 10 second read...and then you can burst out larfing... One person writes how it exists. And barryb asks how you can gain from it. To which no usable answer is provided.How does a bias based on part of the track being faster help a punter. How do they determine the change in chance this affords a runner and then determine whether the price is now value where it wasn't value before.I'd agree tracks provide areas that are faster. Every track is likely to do this to some degree. I don't agree there are leaders bias though. Just track condition potential bias. Something I ignore since I don't control the jockey.How does a punter do three key things. 1. Assess the degree of advantage to a horse that races on that.2. Assess the horses that aren't going to get to race on that ( since point 1 will provide no advantage over the other horses getting to use the same 'faster ground')3. How do I bring 1 and 2 together to work out the change in chance for a horse.I bet they do a Thomas, and guess these things.It's useless information.If the rail moves in 3m - does that mean a horse I think will run 1.11.2 that has drawn barrier 2 will now run 1.11.0? And will a horse that I think will run 1.11.1 that is a back runner and has drawn 10, now be expected to run 1.11.4 due to the state of the track on the inside.I can certainly guess this after the race. Before, nope. And as per the other thread, neither can the supporters of the idea. So take today... ...any Punter who has whittled their % chances down to 2 combatants.. ...one has drawn the rail the other the outside.... ...and then ignores how badly off the rail neddy will be... has f in rocks in their noggins... Its lunatic stuff...and these 2 have the audacity to say "do something the rest don't do to win" ...they'll be increasing the rails neddy's chances today then.... hahahaha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 The farkwitometer is going off regarding the above post, is someone able to translate that complete load of bollocks into English. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theshu Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 So pleased i finally blocked all aspects of the local village idiots postings. It will be the demise of this once good site that i used to love reading. JMO . 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, barryb said: The farkwitometer is going off regarding the above post, is someone able to translate that complete load of bollocks into English. Alors ( so)...mon amie ( my friend)... benevolent ( kindly)... "absolutely spanked"...beaten red raw... "Rangatira"...your master martymcfly.. Grneva Convention...signed between warring Countries to avoid "cruel punishment" ...and "unusual"... ..those 2 morons left who believe the 'rails' was ok today...and the outside at Te Rapa... Comprendez?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, theshu said: So pleased i finally blocked all aspects of the local village idiots postings. It will be the demise of this once good site that i used to love reading. JMO Jason's Punters Club gone to RP so anothor 24 leave 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Just wondering, did you happen to notice any track bias at Wanganui today Barry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Bazz and his rangatira are in deep post race analysis as we speak....schuuuuu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Punters Club gone Thomas just you and happy clapper Pam left and Doug of course to support you clowns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Turny said: Punters Club gone Thomas just you and happy clapper Pam left and Doug of course to support you clowns Wtf are you on about? This site is about serious issues and fun...not some juvenile crowd having a few tweeny bets...ffs...f off 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Turny said: Punters Club gone Thomas just you and happy clapper Pam left and Doug of course to support you clowns 26 pages of Punter's Club postings and not one post on any page from Thomass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Turny said: Jason's Punters Club gone to RP so anothor 24 leave Wow, what happened Turny? The guys in there just got bored of reading Thomass shit & other in fighting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, All The Aces said: Just wondering, did you happen to notice any track bias at Wanganui today Barry? Nope, nothing that I could use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 50 minutes ago, Turny said: Punters Club gone Thomas just you and Doug of course to support you clowns The inevitable has happened I guess, it’s like the living dead here for sure. Leave Pam out though mate, she’s a very hard working good friend of mine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 51 minutes ago, barryb said: Nope, nothing that I could use. Why doesn't that surprise me. Closed minds rarely learn anything. ? Well I hopefully saved Weasel some money with a post last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 hours ago, All The Aces said: Why doesn't that surprise me. Closed minds rarely learn anything. ? Well I hopefully saved Weasel some money with a post last night. I have learnt plenty about punting, the key thing you are missing is you make no mention of value. Exactly like the sharemarket when it’s obvious to everyone it’s time to get off rather than jump on, that boat has sailed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 10 hours ago, barryb said: The inevitable has happened I guess, it’s like the living dead here for sure. Leave Pam out though mate, she’s a very hard working good friend of mine. It's a rollicking great site actually......where posters can actually DISAGREE with each other.... ...you should see Herman's one...almost solely a comp site....full of posters who have either been banned elsewhere or can't handle the truth.... ....powder puffs at 5 paces... ...I never thought of you as a wall flower Bazz...you give bogan a bad name... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 10 hours ago, barryb said: Wow, what happened Turny? The guys in there just got bored of reading Thomass shit & other in fighting? First post in a while Barry, I'm straining Nothing to do with the VI in this case Barry These forums are many things to different people, punters clubs, comps, tipping threads and serious debate on racing issues. None are mutually exclusive. For all the talk on free speech, there is another principle that seems to have been ignored here, looking after the people that contribute to your site. No one should have to endure personal abuse in doing that(that is some peoples version of fun) That's the reason the Punter's Club is moving, along with a few other things. Keep it going though, VI, with your lewd and obnoxious garbage, we are quite happy, everyday you post, turns a few more off this site, and that is potentially to our benefit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, barryb said: I have learnt plenty about punting, the key thing you are missing is you make no mention of value. Exactly like the sharemarket when it’s obvious to everyone it’s time to get off rather than jump on, that boat has sailed. Yea of course you have Bazz...now experimenting with PLACE betting... ...what would your Rangatira say about that one I wonder? ...and then we have your 'tips' "horrendous runs" Herman managed to find a 10/1 winner somewhere in the "horrendous " and thought I should shut the f up... hahahaha oh how we larfed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, hesi said: First post in a while Barry, I'm straining Nothing to do with the VI in this case Barry These forums are many things to different people, punters clubs, comps, tipping threads and serious debate on racing issues. None are mutually exclusive. For all the talk on free speech, there is another principle that seems to have been ignored here, looking after the people that contribute to your site. No one should have to endure personal abuse in doing that(that is some peoples version of fun) That's the reason the Punter's Club is moving, along with a few other things. Keep it going though, VI, with your lewd and obnoxious garbage, we are quite happy, everyday you post, turns a few more off this site, and that is potentially to our benefit Oh my...are you still allowed to post here? Just remind me..weren't you in charge when Bazz told me I should go kill myself? ...and you did absolutely NOTHING about it....in fact you and Pete said I was a "wall flower" get a grip on what is actually 'personal abuse' you idiot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Thomass said: Oh my...are you still allowed to post here? Just remind me..weren't you in charge when Bazz told me I should go kill myself? ...and you did absolutely NOTHING about it....in fact you and Pete said I was a "wall flower" get a grip on what is actually 'personal abuse' you idiot Just to set the record straight, purely for the few people that now follow BOAY, and my own integrity The term you said was used by Barry, was self immolation. I asked you to point out the post where that was said, which you failed to respond to. Had you responded, the post would have been deleted. So probably a good idea to state facts, rather than the fantasy stuff of the world you live in Barry is a good guy, gets a bit ropey at times, but I like him, and unlike you, he puts his money where his mouth is.....before the race He has the choice of where he can post Unfortunately, you have a bit of a predicament coming up, when this site is shut down........you have nowhere to express yourself, I suppose you could always buy an old raincoat and hang around Gillies Ave at 3pm(doesn't bear thinking about) Scooby would not allow you within a million miles of RC, and we would never allow you on TRP. Enjoy it while you can Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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