Te Akau Shark

[Brando]

Chief Stipe wrote:

"I rate Te Akau Shark well above Melody Belle or Kawi.  However history shows that Melody Belle has yet to beat much.  The Livamol this year barely rated R88"

The same can be said about the Shark: Yet to win a G1 - What has it beaten? What did the Couplands Mile rate?

I recall a horse Tom Melbourne also ran 2nd in the Tramway before a 2nd in the Epsom.

I think J Mac summed up the Shark pretty well when he decided to go with Very Ellegant in the Cox Plate:

"Te Akau Shark is a really nice horse but he's been runnning in handicaps. I wish them all the best"

Obviously J Mac's bar is much higher when it comes to "the best horse he has ridden"

The Japanese horse is going to trot home in the Cox Plate. The Shark might be best saved for the Emirates(McKinnon) on a bigger track and a weaker field. So the possibilty of not making the Cox Plate, might be a blessing, so the marketing machine don't have to come up with an excuse for missing a place in the big dance this Saturday ?

[Weasel]

I agree with Brando  re TAS . Better to miss the CP and run at Flemington, bigger track, longer straight. I don't think he is the type to  be 'slingshotted' around The Valley.  As for TAS being rated by Chief Stipe as superior to Melody Belle who has 'yet to beat much' ...well, ridiculous comment CS. To apply that argument to TAS, what has he beat (when he's won)? He hasn't even got a Grp 1 yet. Yes, he finished ahead of her in the Foxbridge but neither was at their peak that day and on your theory Endless Drama must be a champion - he beat them both!

We need to accept that only truly exceptional NZ horses can cut the mustard at the top level over in Oz in the Spring.

I'd love to see Surprise Baby or Glory Days win the Melbourne Cup..but the chances aren't great.

MM

[Chief Stipe]

9 hours ago, Weasel said:

As for TAS being rated by Chief Stipe as superior to Melody Belle who has 'yet to beat much' ...well, ridiculous comment CS. To apply that argument to TAS, what has he beat (when he's won)? He hasn't even got a Grp 1 yet.

TAS's two performances this season in Australia must surely rank ahead of Melody Belle's Livamol win.  He ran the fastest sectionals of both races and was only just beaten in both.

If Melody Belle was truly superior to TAS then wouldn't Te Akau have aimed her for the Cox Plate?  If she wins against the best in OZ then I'll re-rate her......the status of the Livamol needs her to!

As I said she hasn't beat much in New Zealand (nor has TAS) and that is a sad reflection of the decline in our racing quality.  I don't see her as being anywhere near superior to previous winners of two legs of the the NZ triple crown.

As for competing with the best in OZ I've only seen two in the last two seasons that would cut the mustard - Verry Elleegant and Catalyst.  Of course you can't ever underestimate a Murray Baker trained horse heading to Australia either.

[SLB2.0]

Interesting how highly Catalyst is being rated.

Obviously his wins have been top quality, but against opposition you'd see midweek at Avondale.

I'm unsure how his age-group form would stack up in Australia. I think you'd be surprised how quickly he comes back to earth racing against their far superior crop.

However! Lovely type in the making and here's hoping he matures into a top performer.

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, SLB2.0 said:

Interesting how highly Catalyst is being rated.

Obviously his wins have been top quality, but against opposition you'd see midweek at Avondale.

I'm unsure how his age-group form would stack up in Australia. I think you'd be surprised how quickly he comes back to earth racing against their far superior crop.

However! Lovely type in the making and here's hoping he matures into a top performer.

I believe he is top line given how the way he has had to win and his sectionals.  I like him as he seems to be a horse that can sprint twice and is tractable enough and robust enough to get out of trouble and not lose momentum.  Even though the opposition wasn't much his Ruakaka performance was eye catching.  BOAY made Verry Eleegant the video of the week when she won on the same track.  I recall the same criticism about the class of opposition.

Catalyst's Guineas win was a galloping lesson for the rest.  I'm picking he will measure up in Ozzie in the Autumn just like his old man did.

[Brando]

5 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

TAS's two performances this season in Australia must surely rank ahead of Melody Belle's Livamol win.  He ran the fastest sectionals of both races and was only just beaten in both.

The Epsom was the weakest in years. Top weight at 57kgs had never won a G1 and 14 of 18 runners weighted 50-51kgs.

In the Tramway, Shark was a length off the mare Eckstein in the straight, when he got clear running at the 200m; then took the rest of the straight to just edge the mare on the line for 2nd, 3L from the winner.

The Shark's run in the Tramway showed he was just another hyped up Xtravagant and Hasslehoof: look good beating very average NZ opposition; only to be found out in Australia.

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, Brando said:

The Epsom was the weakest in years. Top weight at 57kgs had never won a G1 and 14 of 18 runners weighted 50-51kgs.

In the Tramway, Shark was a length off the mare Eckstein in the straight, when he got clear running at the 200m; then took the rest of the straight to just edge the mare on the line for 2nd, 3L from the winner.

The Shark's run in the Tramway showed he was just another hyped up Xtravagant and Hasslehoof: look good beating very average NZ opposition; only to be found out in Australia.

So based on that opinion you don't rate Melody Belle either.

I would say that The Shark's run in the Epsom was full of merit - 3 wide the trip and ran the fastest sectionals.  Kolding isn't a bad animal either.  They ran 1.34 on a Soft 6 track.

[Huey]

5 minutes ago, Brando said:

The Epsom was the weakest in years. Top weight at 57kgs had never won a G1 and 14 of 18 runners weighted 50-51kgs.

In the Tramway, Shark was a length off the mare Eckstein in the straight, when he got clear running at the 200m; then took the rest of the straight to just edge the mare on the line for 2nd, 3L from the winner.

The Shark's run in the Tramway showed he was just another hyped up Xtravagant and Hasslehoof: look good beating very average NZ opposition; only to be found out in Australia.

I'm not on the TA hype train,  but the Cox Plate field is the weakest in years,  if ever a show it would have to be now. 

[Kopia]

The shark has an explosive turn of foot...which we haven't seen so far this preparation. Maybe he's being trained/ridden differently this time in, since his goal from day 1 has been the Cox Plate. He hasn't raced past 1600m and his draw ( at best 14 out of 14 ) probably won't stop him unless something makes the pace and tries to slip the cutter before the turn, in which case his job will be bloody hard. I think he's a good chance in a tough, even field. A field we hoped for, after the Worlds best dominated the race for 4 years.

He is a lot better than both the horses you mention Brando.. Hows things in Sydney this morning☺️

 

[theshu]

Just my opinion but i think  TAS  has 2 shows and i do  not like either of them.

[Thomass]

1 hour ago, Brando said:

The Epsom was the weakest in years. Top weight at 57kgs had never won a G1 and 14 of 18 runners weighted 50-51kgs.

In the Tramway, Shark was a length off the mare Eckstein in the straight, when he got clear running at the 200m; then took the rest of the straight to just edge the mare on the line for 2nd, 3L from the winner.

The Shark's run in the Tramway showed he was just another hyped up Xtravagant and Hasslehoof: look good beating very average NZ opposition; only to be found out in Australia.

Very tough marking there...

Dan O'Sullivan rates him and he's a fairly good judge to be fear...

He reminds me a lot of SUPER IMPOSE...big strong Chestnut built like Tarzan, dance s like Nureyev...

...he'll slingshot around the cambered turns easily from that draw and after rain from the night racing and earlier on it'll be the faster ground...enjoy

[Brando]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

So based on that opinion you don't rate Melody Belle either.

I don't recall ever rating Melody Belle. She just got caught up in the quotes, when referencing the Shark.

I don't rate NZ trained horses until they turn up in Aussie and prove themselves by winning G1 races.

[Brando]

2 hours ago, Kopia said:

The shark has an explosive turn of foot...which we haven't seen so far this preparation. Maybe he's being trained/ridden differently this time in, since his goal from day 1 has been the Cox Plate. He hasn't raced past 1600m and his draw ( at best 14 out of 14 ) probably won't stop him unless something makes the pace and tries to slip the cutter before the turn, in which case his job will be bloody hard. I think he's a good chance in a tough, even field. A field we hoped for, after the Worlds best dominated the race for 4 years.

He is a lot better than both the horses you mention Brando.. Hows things in Sydney this morning☺️

 

Doesn't run Top 4 for mine ?

[SLB2.0]

Why can't a horse hold a rating in its own country?

Melody Belle is New Zealand's best-performed runner. Do they always have to win in Australia to be considered good?

 

[Chief Stipe]

24 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

Why can't a horse hold a rating in its own country?

Melody Belle is New Zealand's best-performed runner. Do they always have to win in Australia to be considered good?

 

Yes

[SLB2.0]

So it applies only to New Zealand horses?

It seems we're the only country that defines "class" but winning in a country that isn't our own.

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

So it applies only to New Zealand horses?

It seems we're the only country that defines "class" but winning in a country that isn't our own.

Because group racing is rated against a international standard.

[Ashley]

Smedley has more chance of winnign the Arc De Triomphe than TE Akau shark does of winning the Cox plate.

[mardigras]

17 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

So it applies only to New Zealand horses?

It seems we're the only country that defines "class" but winning in a country that isn't our own.

Are the best horses running around Turkey good?  Or are they only considered good in Turkey? Or in other countries like New Caledonia. Or India etc.

The best that race in NZ are obviously 'good' here. But they generally aren't good from an international perspective. 

[Fred]

Get real -NZ has a small broodmare band and Australia about 7 times as many. So if a NZ bred runs in the first 8 in OZ then things are pretty even. How many play rugby in Greenland ? I expect NZ would beat them ....

[SLB2.0]

25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Are the best horses running around Turkey good?  Or are they only considered good in Turkey? Or in other countries like New Caledonia. Or India etc.

The best that race in NZ are obviously 'good' here. But they generally aren't good from an international perspective. 

Frankel was good in the UK.
Winx was good in Australia.

I know the international ratings has racing in the UK and Aus higher than NZ, but please.. some of the fields Winx took on were made up 6/7 stayers from the Waller stable.

I obviously see both sides of an argument. But, try not to degrade the likes of Melody Belle because she won't win a major Australian Group 1.

 

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

Frankel was good in the UK.
Winx was good in Australia.

I know the international ratings has racing in the UK and Aus higher than NZ, but please.. some of the fields Winx took on were made up 6/7 stayers from the Waller stable.

I obviously see both sides of an argument. But, try not to degrade the likes of Melody Belle because she won't win a major Australian Group 1.

 

I've never degraded Melody Belle. I simply stated that the vast majority of the horses to race well and win group races in NZ are not of an international standard. Of course there are exceptions.

[All The Aces]

29 minutes ago, Fred said:

Get real -NZ has a small broodmare band and Australia about 7 times as many. So if a NZ bred runs in the first 8 in OZ then things are pretty even. How many play rugby in Greenland ? I expect NZ would beat them ....

That would be correct the All Blacks would beat them, Australia would probably struggle to. ?

[Weasel]

On 22/10/2019 at 8:25 AM, Chief Stipe said:

TAS's two performances this season in Australia must surely rank ahead of Melody Belle's Livamol win.  He ran the fastest sectionals of both races and was only just beaten in both.

If Melody Belle was truly superior to TAS then wouldn't Te Akau have aimed her for the Cox Plate?  If she wins against the best in OZ then I'll re-rate her......the status of the Livamol needs her to!

As I said she hasn't beat much in New Zealand (nor has TAS) and that is a sad reflection of the decline in our racing quality.  I don't see her as being anywhere near superior to previous winners of two legs of the the NZ triple crown.

As for competing with the best in OZ I've only seen two in the last two seasons that would cut the mustard - Verry Elleegant and Catalyst.  Of course you can't ever underestimate a Murray Baker trained horse heading to Australia either.

Do you mean horses that would 'cut the mustard' i  Oz but haven't raced there yet? Or are you including all Kiwi horses that have had a crack ...? in which case you seem to have forgotten Bonneval.

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, Weasel said:

Do you mean horses that would 'cut the mustard' i  Oz but haven't raced there yet? Or are you including all Kiwi horses that have had a crack ...? in which case you seem to have forgotten Bonneval.

I forgot Bonneval - again the Murray Baker factor.  Although her last good performances were outside the time I was looking at.  Noted though that she showed that class factor that VE and Catalyst have shown before heading over the ditch.

SLB - I'm not out to degrade Melody Belle's performance just because she hasn't won big in OZ - what I was pointing out was that her Triple Crown was soft compared to past editions.  Sadly the quality of our Open, Grp races and WFA has been on a decline for over a decade now.  Winning a Grp 1 in NZ was once a good indicator that you could compete in OZ.  Not anymore.