any longshot tips for today 10 to 1 over

[FeelTheFear]

Yes Turny. Has to claim the win and suggest I was backing his flawed BP. Actually, I did my assessment purely on past time analysis with a few tweaks. No class, barrier, track cond., bad luck runs, just pure times run over the distance (ignoring the G3 run over 1800m). Still, he has to get his jollies somehow, the plastic is wearing thin on the Princess

[barryb]

Matamata

Race 2 #5 Sheeznoteasy $6.50

Race 8 #1 Tweedledee $4.50 

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by barryb

[Thomass]

On 17/12/2018 at 8:58 PM, FeelTheFear said:

Yes Turny. Has to claim the win and suggest I was backing his flawed BP. Actually, I did my assessment purely on past time analysis with a few tweaks. No class, barrier, track cond., bad luck runs, just pure times run over the distance (ignoring the G3 run over 1800m). Still, he has to get his jollies somehow, the plastic is wearing thin on the Princess

Any horse will run 'time' when placed in 2 age Group 1's...

...however....and you'll know this if you ask the Brownes...

The trip to Aus improved her maturity no end...and showed she was up to Aus Black type class..

unlike Age of Fire...who beat her as a 3yo

So it's taking into account horse pshycology as well...when I use Aus. Black Type form in the BO

...Its very doubtful she'd be the horse today without that Aus trip then

[wally]

4 hours ago, barryb said:

Matamata

Race 2 #5 Sheeznoteasy $6.50

Race 8 #1 Tweedledee $4.50 

 

thanks baz back on line now i was told by my physc to have a spell from tommy

[mardigras]

12 hours ago, barryb said:

Matamata

Race 2 #5 Sheeznoteasy $6.50

Race 8 #1 Tweedledee $4.50 

 

I fancy Havoc in the 8th $5.40

[The Centaur]

20 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I fancy Havoc in the 8th $5.40

Lets hope it doesn't get worked up before the race.

Interesting comment from Pam Gerrard that home track advantage not always translates to more relaxed horse although it worked with She's A Goddess at least to the start.

[mardigras]

42 minutes ago, The Centaur said:

Lets hope it doesn't get worked up before the race.

Interesting comment from Pam Gerrard that home track advantage not always translates to more relaxed horse although it worked with She's A Goddess at least to the start.

Plenty of ability but after the first 400m, not a sh.t show. And talk about erratic. Remove the blinkers I'd say.

[curious]

Yeahh, it did sweat up a bit and applying the BP principles, over-raced early and was very unlucky in the straight, so with blinkers off, over a shorter trip might be the go next time, especially if down in class.

[Thomass]

Seriously boyz....

Cant yous Fellas F IN READ??

The bet of the year was in the first!!

Great effort in a G 1...back to Maiden mid WEAK...with the 3kgs off!!

HELLLLLLO 4.20 the day before!!!

...and all you could list were a bunch of LOSERS!

Bazz is back on a 0/20 run of Curious outs...mmmm wonder why that is?

 

[barryb]

59 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

Bazz is back on a 0/20 run of Curious outs...mmmm wonder why that is?

 

Probably because the vast majority of my selctions are over $10 buts that lost on you, a dumb shit like yourself WOULD NOT understand the mathmatics behind the likelhood of a selection winning at those odds.

 

[FeelTheFear]

10 minutes ago, barryb said:

Probably because the vast majority of my selctions are over $10 buts that lost on you, a dumb shit like yourself WOULD NOT understand the mathmatics behind the likelhood of a selection winning at those odds.

 

Plastic can be toxic I believe. 

[barryb]

13:37 ota R01 11 Maipe     $7.00    
17:12 ota R07  1 Pinsraad      $4.20 - superb value
17:47 ota R08 13 Lady In Lace  $4.00

Mardi thoughts?.

[curious]

2 hours ago, barryb said:

Probably because the vast majority of my selctions are over $10 buts that lost on you, a dumb shit like yourself WOULD NOT understand the mathmatics behind the likelhood of a selection winning at those odds.

 

And the 8 or 10 I put up ... I think that's closer than 20 .... but Thommo can't count let alone understand much ....were between 20 and 30/1 .... all before the race too. I don't bet on over 7-10% chances so I can put those up without affecting my chances of getting on at value. Since I bet on the tote. I probably needed one winner in 20-25 bets to make a profit.

[mardigras]

5 hours ago, barryb said:

13:37 ota R01 11 Maipe     $7.00    
17:12 ota R07  1 Pinsraad      $4.20 - superb value
17:47 ota R08 13 Lady In Lace  $4.00

Mardi thoughts?.

Just seen this barry so not much help.

Not claiming any credit, but had Rosetta at $3.10 the 7th. I think Relda is a decent go in the 8th if handles the wet - At the prices, Lady In Lace not value for me - and not at current prices for you - so hope you got on early for a decent price.

[mardigras]

12 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Just seen this barry so not much help.

Not claiming any credit, but had Rosetta at $3.10 the 7th. I think Relda is a decent go in the 8th if handles the wet - At the prices, Lady In Lace not value for me - and not at current prices for you - so hope you got on early for a decent price.

i'd only seen tote price barry - saw LIL at $4, hence my comment. 

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, mardigras said:

i'd only seen tote price barry - saw LIL at $4, hence my comment. 

At $7 would it have been of value?

[barryb]

2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

At $7 would it have been of value?

Excellent value.

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

At $7 would it have been of value?

Yes, even value for me - but less value than the $8 available for Relda when I put my post up. Well done barry.

[curious]

Looks pretty good at evens right now. Probably be a BP bet tomorrow.

[mardigras]

11 hours ago, curious said:

Looks pretty good at evens right now. Probably be a BP bet tomorrow.

Selecting them after the races does have a distinct advantage. Hence why the BP does so well. Anyone using the BP needs all the help they can get although that advantage isn't really going to help financially.

[Thomass]

15 hours ago, mardigras said:

Just seen this barry so not much help.

Not claiming any credit, but had Rosetta at $3.10 the 7th. I think Relda is a decent go in the 8th if handles the wet - At the prices, Lady In Lace not value for me - and not at current prices for you - so hope you got on early for a decent price.

Looks like you are actually....

Was it the G3 effort that clinched your extremely tight analytical diagnosis in a mid weaker?

[mardigras]

I removed any notion of credit. And my price has zero to do with class since my prices analysis doesn't even know what class the horse raced in. It doesn't need to know that - since the horse didn't know it either.

[barryb]

14:05 ash R02  5 Baccio    $10.00 Go Pam, a huge unknown but trial was good enough to suggest a chance in this field.
15:50 ash R05 10 Czarista  $8.00 
16:25 ash R06  3 Perfidia  $3.50

17:00 ash R07 12 Hell Bound $20.00 Longshot, but leads and might be ready to go close.

 

Mardi?.

 

 

[FeelTheFear]

Race 1: #3 Producer with #5 Tacktheflag for longer odds.

Edited December 21, 2018 by FeelTheFear

[mardigras]

25 minutes ago, barryb said:

14:05 ash R02  5 Baccio    $10.00 Go Pam, a huge unknown but trial was good enough to suggest a chance in this field.
15:50 ash R05 10 Czarista  $8.00 
16:25 ash R06  3 Perfidia  $3.50

17:00 ash R07 12 Hell Bound $20.00 Longshot, but leads and might be ready to go close.

 

Mardi?.

 

 

Very similar prices 5 & 6. $8.60 and $5.

Although perfidia shorter that mine on NZ tab. I have other fav at $4.80 but they are my top two in race. Both shorter NZ tab.

Hellbound a bit longer for me at $34. Good luck barry.

Don't price first starters so in the dark there.