Chief Stipe

Where's the quantitative evidence that having a less than $2 favourite has a significant impact on wagering revenue? What has more impact a $2 favourite or a 7 horse field?

Isn't that the metric that should be measured? Yes but 60 seconds is meaningless particularly if you don't measure the direct impact. You are only focussed as well on the Export market.

Wouldn't a key metric(s) be: The number of races exported that were televised overseas. The number of races commingled.

But what impact does 60 seconds have? Should the metric be less than 3 minutes? What is the difference in revenue for a race that runs 1 min 10 seconds late as opposed to running on time? There was a 6% "improvement" in this metric but only a 2% improvement in export revenue. The fact is export revenue is dictated by broadcasting decisions that appear to be made outside the direct input of HRNZ. Woodham as a past employee of TAB NZ will be across that though won't he?

Where is the quantitative evidence to support that? Is the impact greater or less than having a field smaller than 8 horses? Regardless what can HRNZ do change the favourite metric? SFA.

I've got lots of vivid memories in both Harness and Thoroughbred racing. I can't choose which one as being the most vivid. Listening to one of my Dad's first horses win a big race at Nelson from my transistor in Hokitika - the commentator was Jack O'Donnell. He could sure paint a picture. No video's in those days but Dad did buy the tape recording. I wore it out and can still recite the last 600m of the race verbatim - "It's a grand sight in sunshine as they race round the showgrounds bend, Canny Glen is the leader......Jack Smolenski immediately gives the dust sheet a tap or two and his charge is out in front by a length or two, Tilford is the big danger and is starting to make a move now.........and here's High Chaparral down the outside, racing in with 200 to go, High Chaparral hits the front and goes onto win, THIS WILL BE A BOILOVER!" Being allowed for the first time after weeks and weeks of dunging out, cleaning leather harness, gearing up and washing down to jog a horse on my own in sulky. Visiting and staying at Ted Lowe's property at Hinds. Sitting in his living room surrounded by NZ Cups and numerous other racing trophies and memorabilia while he and Dad drunk whiskey regaling in vivid language fascinating racing stories. Seeing the Hokitika Trotting Cup which was won in the late 19th century. It was bigger than the NZ Trotting Cup. While at Ted's property got to see Wag the first horse I think to smash the 2 minute barrier for a mile. I was 9 and Dad had High Chaparral stabled at the property. I was given one of Wag's horse shoes and a cutting from his tail. I got the idea to tie a couple of strands on High Chaparrals harness to make him go faster in his next race which was at Ashburton. He duly won and the story was written up in the local Ashburton paper. After that we frequently got an envelope in the mail with a fresh supply of Wag hair. Further to that win at Ashburton. It was my job to walk the horse around after the race to cool down while Dad and Joe Hill (the Trainer) went to collect. Anyway I walked round and round and round - another race went by. I initially wasn't brave enough to take the horse back to the stalls as in those days it was a hive of activity - horses neighing loudly, corrugated iron being kicked but it started to rain and I got braver. I was heading back to find Dad and Joe who had forgotten about me - they were busy drinking whiskey and counting all the cash they had just scored off the TAB. LOL that horse always paid well on the Tote!! You could really set a horse for a punt in those days! Being in the Trainers stand at Addington the night of Lord Module's Allan Matson FFA world record win. The stable had a couple of horses racing that night and I was a stable hand so got to go where the general public couldn't. The Trainers all had stop watches and were stunned when they saw the time Lord Module had run. I vividly remember the large crowd running to the birdcage to cheer him. The previous week they had been booing and throwing cans at him. A lasting memory was also seeing Jack Smolenski sitting in the Drivers room which we walked through on our way back to the stable. We congratulated him but noticed the blood from Lord Module's quarter cracks on his silks. Meeting a live and well Lordship at the Nyhan's Stud on Trents Road. Seeing my first mare being served and suckered into helping. The little pony teaser going ape. The Stallion (I think is was Noble Lord) rippling with muscle and anticipation. A vet palpitated the mare - it was my job to hold the swabs - both before and after! Then at the last moment when the stallion was mounting the mare a handler grabbed its penis and directed it into a big tube to collect the semen which was then split into straws. Then back to holding swabs while the vet inseminated the mare with a straw! Being allowed to drive at speed my Dad's best horse as a 2 year old - Dunhill. The further and faster we went the harder it was to hold him. The other horse being worked alongside was a horse called Crafty Admiral who was also quite useful. When at University picking every winner one night at Addington (didn't pick 4 in each race either!) including a number of outsiders. The float trips from Brightwater to Christchurch leaving at 4am in the morning. Endless summer holidays every year on the Nelson/Blenheim Harness circuit. I started every school year a week later than everyone else as I honed my maths skills in a racebook. The Nelson Trotting Club Members buffet was always a highlight and I've never ever seen one like it.

I've looked at that thread but can't narrow down one particular memory.

Karrots this is the Oxford definition of a Keyboard Warrior: a person who makes abusive or aggressive posts on the internet, typically one who conceals their true identity. There are only two regular posters on BOAY that fit into that category and they are both moderated. If Coulam has a wider definition than above then he has no understanding of sport, social media or opinion that he may disagree with.

Well they said something similar about Zaaki over 1400m.

Perhaps our resident expert @JJ Flash can help me understand the HRNZ statistics that he has seemingly lauded. I mean my qualifications mean nothing but presumably he has a fist full of them and can assist in our wider understanding. The fact is comparing 2019-20 with 2020-21 is nonsensical and pointless. A more relevant comparison would have been 2018-19 with 2020-21. I've taken the liberty of identifying those stats that my irrelevant professional training suggests are irrelevant. Why are they irrelevant? The rule of thumb with choosing what to measure is firstly can you actually measure it and secondly can you do anything to favourably change that metric. Correct me if I'm wrong @JJ Flash but the stats on Average Winning Dividend and # Races favourite less than $2 and $1.50 are nonsensical measures. I'm not sure how relevant that starting a race within 60 seconds of advertised start time is either. @JJ Flash you have made a number of comments on the "improvement in Fixed Odds yield" and the increase in Fixed Odds turnover. Increases in Fixed Odds Turnover has been happening year on year since Fixed Odds was introduced. The majority of that turnover having been cannibalized from the Tote turnover. Fair enough if your competitors are offering that product then you have to as well. The nub of course is that the yield from Fixed Odds is significantly less than from the Tote. The improvement in yield for Fixed Odds is great but is it enough to compensate for the loss in Tote yield. With the latter TAB NZ has amongst the highest tote takeout rates and therefore further skews punters towards Fixed Odds. This is a bit of a downward spiral as the more punters that move to Fixed Odds the lower the Tote pools and the less attractive they become. Now you could arguably say that Fixed Odds turnover and yields is an irrelevant statistic for HRNZ to measure - HRNZ has zero control over those metrics. Total Revenue is the important measure as it has a direct relationship to the number of, the quality of and the size of race fields. A key statistic that is missing is Imported Race Turnover. Where is this turnover hidden below? HRNZ can have some influence on this statistic. An interesting statistic below that Woodham and Coulam if they are as sharp as some believe will be right on top of is the Exported Turnover figure. Essentially between the two years the exported turnover was the same $81m vs $83m even though there was a 20% increase in the number of Harness races. Doesn't that raise of red flag of WHY? We've seen utterances from Woodham about forming a partnership with an overseas provider to supposedly address this. But what does that actually mean? Who was responsible for exporting Harness races last year? Did Harness get dicked by the Thoroughbreds? As I always say the devil is in the detail. Yours truly, A Keyboard Warrior. PS: Attention HRNZ can you republish the HRNZ KEY STATISTICS including the 2018/19 Actuals? Or can you put back up on your website the 2018/19 detailed metrics and I can do it for you.

Geez the R88 field at Rosehill (Kemba Grange) has won nearly $4m in stakes. The R74 just about the same!

But don't all the major winners come from 5 stables?

You were restricted then too Brodie - by how much your Mother let you put on. Nothing changes eh!

Some one brought my attention to the following about Kary Mullis that was posted elsewhere by a very short Vet. I'm disappointed that he would fall for this fake news as I did give him some credit for having some intelligence and a modicum of understanding of the scientific method. I didn't think for a moment that he would profess to know more than a Nobel prize winner. Dr Kary Mullis died in 2019. He won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1993 for his invention of the PCR testing method in 1985. The method that many of us are now familiar with because of its extensive use in the Covid-19 pandemic. In the following video Mullis calls Dr Fauci a fraud (well before the Covid-19 pandemic began) and gives some very good reasons why. However the key point Mullis makes is that the PCR test was not designed to test for disease and that it was being misused. The PCR test essentially uses a naturally occurring reaction (Polymerase Chain Reaction) to detect molecules of a substance. It can be adjusted to identify any molecule by the use of primer agents. The PCR reaction can be run through amplification cycles - the greater the number of cycles the greater the level of detection and the smaller the level of molecules that can be detected. This is its advantage but also its biggest disadvantage. If you increase the replication cycles then you can detect very very minute fragments and levels of a virus for example. However at high replication cycles the detected virus may not represent infection or disease. As Mullis says at high cycles you can detect one molecule or a fragment of one molecule that is never going to be infectious nor reach disease status. Now this is where Mullis is misquoted with regard to HIV. He said that a PCR test may identify HIV being present but that doesn't mean that the person will become infectious or develop AID's. He is quoted as being convinced that HIV is not the sole cause of AIDS and that other viruses may be involed as well as a complex body immune response (although he didn't specifically refer to it one could compare this theory with cases of cytokine storm response to Covid-19). However his views were more nuanced than that - With regard to the viral-load tests, which attempt to use PCR for counting viruses, Mullis has stated: “Quantitative PCR is an oxymoron.” PCR is intended to identify substances qualitatively, but by its very nature is unsuited for estimating numbers. Although there is a common misimpression that the viral-load tests actually count the number of viruses in the blood, these tests cannot detect free, infectious viruses at all; they can only detect proteins that are believed, in some cases wrongly, to be unique to HIV. The tests can detect genetic sequences of viruses, but not viruses themselves It is on the use of PCR testing that he is particularly critical of Fauci. He had many controversial views on a number of topics and believed that human activity was not the major cause of Climate Change. He may or may not be correct on that but he did put forward a clear scientific hypthesis that was at odds with the current consensus (Check out this website https://everythingclimate.org/).

My apologies. On reviewing your posts many of them are attacks on Brodie or me. Is Michael your middle name? Many of them are just regurgitating the marketing BS and spin without any cogent analysis. But you do often put the boot into harness -

They have a big team here. Emma-lee and their 3 children are back here with David campaigning in OZ. He may not be home by Christmas due to MIQ. But they think Elephant is a very good horse and the sacrifice is worth it.

Your specific criticism is what?

Would one post or two suffice?

Well between TAB NZ, NZTR and HRNZ they did force the only independent publication out of business - The Informant. As for NZRacingDesk and Luuurrrve Racing I guess we can expect more banal cookie cut stories. No hard hitting editorial.

Well if you pay for it then why not brand it. When is NZTR going to start using its new found marketing budget? What will NZTR spend it on? It isn't in TAB NZ's budget any more to promote NZ Thoroughbred Racing.

Aquaman that is just plain wacky. Don't diminish the issues with Covid by conflating them with Climate Change.

Cute.