All The Aces

30+ years ago most of the information wasn't at your finger tips such as trial video's race videos just for starters. Now a vast majority of the information I look at is easily located on the NZTR website. If you did want to look at a strike rate for a jockey/trainer combination one click will provide that for you. Eg; Look at R2 at Taranaki tomorrow ridden by Opie Bosson and trained by Jamie Richards Click on Opie Bosson and the stats come up. Firstly with all his rides on the particular horse, 1 ride unplaced. Then rides for trainer (in this case Jamie Richards) 156 rides for 43 wins and 40 placings with a winning strike rate of 3.6. It will then show you Opie's stats at New Plymouth 291 rides for 71 wins and 67 placings with a winning strike rate of 4.1. I would spend about 4 to 5 hours (not at once) doing analysis for any one meeting. As to whether I am successful...….well I do majority of my betting in cash which is one of the main reasons I go on -course. Take what you will from that, I won't be expanding any further other than to say my betting bank funds a number of things. ? Good luck with what you do, I couldn't leave out the host of things you don't look at or don't include when looking at a horse and expect to be as confident that's for sure. Here endeth the topic from me.

I look at a horse's times to a certain degree but it is not a main focus. If we only had two tracks in NZ such as Hong Kong does then I would place a lot more emphasis on times. However NZ has 50 or so odd tracks all different. Let's look at 1200m times for example. Ellerslie's track record for 1200m is 1:07:73 set back in 1987 by the brilliant Diamond Lover. Te Rapa's track record is slower at 1:08:60. Riccarton 1:07:01 Trentham 1:06:51 and say one provincial eg Tauranga 1:08:69. Both Trentham and Riccarton are run downhill from a chute and with a tailwind up their backsides horses can run super quick times. Take for example the Telegraph this year. 18 starters, the race won by Enzo's Lad a nose in front of Ferrando in 1:06:95. The next 12 runners all broke 1:08:00. Going into their next starts and comparing times they would have probably been head and shoulders quicker on paper but they don't race on paper do they. Of the 18 starters on 2 managed to win at their next starts Gift Of Power who ran 6th and Melody Belle who ran 16th in 1:08:63. I look at race video's and trial video's, look at all the horse's details including track and distance stats, whether it is back in grade, up in grade, barrier draw, whether it races well fresh or needs a few runs, look at it's second up record, look at it's winning weights to see what it is capable of winning with, check where the rail is positioned, do speed maps to find out where my runner may position in the running, track conditions of course, look at stipe reports and take note of any gear changes. Also look at rider and take in birdcage looks and preliminaries so basically what I am saying is that I don't put all my eggs in one basket and rely on one dominant feature such as times but use a variety of means to come up with the horse I want to back in a race. The more work I put in the luckier I seem to get. I had one bet at Rotorua yesterday for example, (now before you say after the race) I will explain why. Munster in R3 who was having his first start. He was beaten a lip in his first trial by Green Bravo in what was the fastest of the 10 maiden heats and then won his second trial beating Reika in the fastest of the 11 heats. Both Green Bravo and Reika came out and won on debut. Munster drew the ace yesterday and based on his last trial from that draw I expected him to lead or trail and be right on pace. By my reckoning if they run the race 10 times I though he would win 9 times so at $2.90 on opening he was way overs and a top value bet. He jumped, led and won by a half length. And that's all she wrote.

I am well aware of that. However It is the process he follows beforehand to determine his perceived value in a field that I am discussing.

The one thing your computer doesn't have is a set of eyes Mardigras and yours don't seem to operate that well. You can't quantify an unlucky run per se and place it in a box or any other such things such as a hard run wide and a host of other things. To pick those up, recognize them and evaluate them comes from years of experience and knowledge. Nor can your computer pick out a horse by it's looks in the birdcage as Murray Fish pointed etc. Again it comes down to experience and knowledge. You can put all kinds of stats into your computer for it to spit out it's selections however experience and knowledge by using one's eyes is a vital player in this game, make no mistake.

I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time

Touchy aren't we...clearly embarrassed I would think and so you should be. . ? I find it rather ironic that anything Thomas puts up including other people's articles such as Dan O'Sullivan's you use to have a go at him. I bet that if one of your mates has posted it you would have found it great and very informative. So, you don't do speed maps, you don't do draws, you don't worry about weight, etc etc....gosh it must take you ten seconds to look at a race and find the winner and just about every time it seems. Where did you buy your lucky darts from? ?

Come on this was your response to someone asking you for your top three for the Cup and then you have the temerity to claim you made plenty. I would say Mardigras that the line in your hero parade following the race would be very short based on your above preview. ?

? You have more spin than Shane Warne ever had.

Here is what he posted (At least Barry admitted he had no idea:) "Haven't got much that is particularly astounding. But from the odds, I have the following top 2, the two extra for the top 3/4 Mer De Glace is my top selection and is at value at the 8.6. Cross Counter is definite value at 17s The other two I'd consider at the lower end of the market is Raymond Tusk and Prince Of Arran both at 20s. If I added a couple of the longer odds runners at value, I'd be looking at Steel Prince at 90s and for very long odds Sound at 200s. It would be the most even Melbourne Cup field I've seen - probably due to the unprecedented situation where the top 24 in the order of entry prior to Saturday, all paid up and made the field. Usually 4 or 5 drop out to be filled by often lesser types. I didn't like originally, but even Surprise Baby has profiled quite well through my analysis. But you can't take them all. And the one I've invested in the most in still Mirage Dancer. Ans is at a little value at 44s. And I haven't even mentioned Constantinople or Vow And Declare - and may still have missed the winner! At least the forecast is suggesting little or no rain. I don't particularly want a bunch of more rain since I'm out on the lawn up close with the horses when I go to Flemington, and see every single one of them unobstructed before and during the race."

Didn't look too many on-course yesterday Freda. Fields weren't that great but of course Catalyst was a draw card. Sensei was good and so he probably should run 55 sec with a huge tailwind and going down hill. The Northerners don't seem to be coming down with the big numbers any more eg Lisa Latta none in yesterday and three in on Wednesday. She usually brings down a big team. I am not sure that Wednesday is looking all that flash either. Turnover figures will be interesting.

We all saw the outcry after Cliffsofmoher was put down last year in the media. Unfortunately four horses have had to be put down following the Cup in the last six years and the activists, media etc have been really putting the boot in. Can you imagine the reaction if another horse is lost this year. I imagine the VRC are checking the dots and crossing every T coming into the race. Let's imagine the scenario if Marmelo is actually reinstated, lines up and does indeed break a leg and in turn brings down another runner or several runners and mayhem eventuates. Who will be held responsible and subject to being sued. The ramifications would be very serious and very costly.

Surely they would be well qualified and experienced senior vets Freda.

They were only scanned because of concerns under normal vet checks. Obviously the others passed which didn't require any further action.

Who knew. Obviously Stephen Marsh (someone point out this thread to him). Had to win to get a shot at getting into the NZ Cup. Hunted out to lead, always travelled well and plan went to perfection. Good day for the Ben Foote with Travelling Light wining the Soliloquy Stakes and also having ownership in Chief Sequoyah along with his father.

Spot on Kopia.

Beautiful. ?

? You are absolutely full of it.

Well the one I liked with the blinkers on for the first time finished third. Unfortunately he is still a work in progress and still did things wrong again today. He will keep. However it was still a most successful day. Mardi perhaps you would like to tell me why you agreed with Fortune Patch on the other site. Got back, never raised a gallop finishing ninth whilst the stablemate wins by five lengths. Even Andrew Scott wrote off it's chances in the pre-race interview. I am shocked an expert such as yourself could get it so badly wrong. ?

? You do it your way Mardi and I'll do it my way. I believe blinkers can help a horse as it would appear professional trainers do also. You will excuse me if I take trainer's such as Waller, Baker etc judgement over yours.

Firstly I don't need to prove anything to anyone and secondly I don't do tips. But...…..If I like a horse and the blinkers are going on, it sure as hell gives me some extra confidence for my own bet and that's all that matters in the scheme of things. It's my account balance that counts not anyone else's. ☺️ Big Ben won well at Te Rapa when the blinkers went back on. ? I don't give a rat's arse if you want to ignore blinkers on a horse as a factor in your selection strategy but I do and will continue to do so. I have boosted my bet on one tomorrow as I note the blinkers are going on. So looking forward to that. You can ignore blinkers at your own peril, there are others that aren't so silly. ?

Good too see that you are finally learning Bazza. The horse had never led in his eleven previous starts. BLINKERS go on for the first time, leads and bolts in.

And of course blinkers going on Long Jack yesterday. I guess Muzza and Andrew know what they are doing. ☺️

Ivan Kane opened at $16.00FF ? yesterday. ?

I think that may have been Lizzie Jelfs In her own elegant and classic style, English-born racing expert and host, Lizzie Jelfs personifies everything wonderful within the Racing Industry. Recognised for the role she played in the success of the David Hayes stables, Lizzie is dedicated to engaging and empowering all with her expertise and understanding of everything that happens trackside. Lizzie can be seen on Sky Thoroughbred Central, where she delivers her sought after Pick Of The Yard tips and probing 'LIVE' interviews, covering the sport she so dearly loves.