All The Aces

They used a sophisticated computer generated algorithms system to determine "win expectation" ie Multiplying the "horses" computer calculated probability by it's current odds. They both made hundreds of millions with Bob Benter striking a massive Triple Trio of $16 million which he never collected instead the Jockey Club giving it away to charity. They had a massive operation with a lot of people working for them. They both had teams of expert analysts including several Kiwis watching every race and video for subjective factors such as wide runs, unlucky runs, tempos etc. They found by doing this it made the algorithms far more effective.

Mardigras, is your computer system based on a similar system that Bob Benter and Allan Woods used in Hong Kong in the early 90s?

Probably Pat Comerford

Interesting reading value concept on the other site. Mardi's brother Bazza has had 1547 so far this year. This is the bloke that tried to prove to everyone two betting theories on how to make money with both ending disastrously very quickly with both threads abandoned. Anyone following either concept would go broke. Mardigras You say your system selects around 500 a horses a year, do you back all or cherry pick from the one's selected? I would total 150-170 bets per year no more and have never exceeded 200 in a year.

Incredible. No video analysis of races or trials. You would be the first and only form analyst that I could name to anyone that fails to do so.

Still is Murray. Hey, a couple of the older boys here in the Bay recall you at Awapuni when you were doing photographs at the races. Around the time when Ken Lush was doing it they said if you are the same person.

Seeing you don't watch videos of races or trials how do you assess first starters?

So you backed Piping Hot. Perhaps if you had taken time to watch the video of Captive you would have been on a winner instead of a loser...…..after all as he crossed the line George Simon said "And the punters got it right." perhaps he should have added" except Mardigras." ? PS. Did you notice that blinkers went on for the first time also ?

Well you agree he was a very good bet then. I trust you were on. Was your brother "Hesi" ?

I see that dickhead Hesi has been looking on and commented on the other site. Quite happy to name the horse "DH", it was Captive. Go and have a close look at the video of his run at Ellerslie when he finished tenth and if you weren't on yesterday ask yourself why the hell not.

Please yourself Mardi, no skin off my nose. I will keep doing what I do after all it is what I do that counts as far as my racing account balance looks and your opinion on matters has diddly squat to do with that.

Never mind Mardi you don't do video analysis so you probably wouldn't pick it up anyway. I don't mind if you think it is waste of time doing so I as I know being able to read races is an extremely important asset. Just the one bet today for me up at Te Rapa using that asset and I am pretty sure that Thomas would have been on as well. ?

Yes they do need to update their records. After hearing the time yesterday at the track I decided to check their records last night as 1:O8: something is a very quick time at Awapuni. So yes Gift Of Power ran 1:07:46 last December and they obviously haven't updated. Any way the time is irrelevant and a red herring as that was not the point I was making. The point was an unlucky runner last start going down in grade which is two things I take into consideration when doing a pre-race analysis as I advised earlier in the thread.

AWAPUNI TRACK RECORDS DISTANCE HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 800m Go Go 53kg 25 September 1993 00:48.20 1000m Navel Spray 51kg 12 January 1980 00:59.00 1100m I Robot 55.,5kg 22 December 2007 01:03.09 1200m Red Cent 53kg 17 December 1994 01:08.69 1300m Baldessarini 54kg 11 December 2004 01:15.66 1400m Maximum Star 55.5kg 28 March 2009 01:20.41 1600m Navajo Brave 51.5kg 26 December 1990 01:33.68 2000m Izonit 56kg 28 March 2009 02:00.14 2100m Antipodean 54kg 11 November 2008 02:08.17 2200m Azranee 52.5kg 16 January 1982 02:12.10 2300m Drogheda 50.5kg 17 December 1994 02:18.00 HURDLES HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 2600m Go For Broke 59.5kg 30 October 1976 02:49.80 2900m Ipso Facto 62kg 06 July 1992 03:11.68 STEEPLES HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 3200m Gold Reign 62.5kg 16 June 1978 03:57.20 3400m Black Ace 64.5kg 8 May 2002 03:59.71 4000m Grey Calute 57.5kg 12 May 1982 04:51.60 4150m The Jolly Dancer 64kg 16 September 2006 05:14.73 4400m Rioch 67kg 15 June 2013 05:13.30

1:01 is a full second over the record as I stated Mardi so no fact wrong there. According to the Race website the track record for 1200m at Awapuni is held by Red Cent set on 17/12/1994 at 1:08:69. The horse I am referring to ran 1:08:84 yesterday which is less than .3 variance. Perhaps it is you who should be checking his facts.

Wasn't close at all Mardi, over a full second off the track record. Try again.

I am sure 99.9% of most people would be easily able to figure it out.

Too late Mardi and as I have said previously I don't tip. The reason I mentioned it was on the basis of what I posted earlier in this thread on as to how I do analysis re video's (which you said you don't do) and how an example like this can help someone for the future. That way you could find it yourself and back it prior to the race and at value as the opening odds were very good. ?

I know some on the other site look in here. An unlucky horse last start (check the video) and back in grade yesterday wins at Awapuni just outside the track record set 25 years ago. ☺️

30+ years ago most of the information wasn't at your finger tips such as trial video's race videos just for starters. Now a vast majority of the information I look at is easily located on the NZTR website. If you did want to look at a strike rate for a jockey/trainer combination one click will provide that for you. Eg; Look at R2 at Taranaki tomorrow ridden by Opie Bosson and trained by Jamie Richards Click on Opie Bosson and the stats come up. Firstly with all his rides on the particular horse, 1 ride unplaced. Then rides for trainer (in this case Jamie Richards) 156 rides for 43 wins and 40 placings with a winning strike rate of 3.6. It will then show you Opie's stats at New Plymouth 291 rides for 71 wins and 67 placings with a winning strike rate of 4.1. I would spend about 4 to 5 hours (not at once) doing analysis for any one meeting. As to whether I am successful...….well I do majority of my betting in cash which is one of the main reasons I go on -course. Take what you will from that, I won't be expanding any further other than to say my betting bank funds a number of things. ? Good luck with what you do, I couldn't leave out the host of things you don't look at or don't include when looking at a horse and expect to be as confident that's for sure. Here endeth the topic from me.

I look at a horse's times to a certain degree but it is not a main focus. If we only had two tracks in NZ such as Hong Kong does then I would place a lot more emphasis on times. However NZ has 50 or so odd tracks all different. Let's look at 1200m times for example. Ellerslie's track record for 1200m is 1:07:73 set back in 1987 by the brilliant Diamond Lover. Te Rapa's track record is slower at 1:08:60. Riccarton 1:07:01 Trentham 1:06:51 and say one provincial eg Tauranga 1:08:69. Both Trentham and Riccarton are run downhill from a chute and with a tailwind up their backsides horses can run super quick times. Take for example the Telegraph this year. 18 starters, the race won by Enzo's Lad a nose in front of Ferrando in 1:06:95. The next 12 runners all broke 1:08:00. Going into their next starts and comparing times they would have probably been head and shoulders quicker on paper but they don't race on paper do they. Of the 18 starters on 2 managed to win at their next starts Gift Of Power who ran 6th and Melody Belle who ran 16th in 1:08:63. I look at race video's and trial video's, look at all the horse's details including track and distance stats, whether it is back in grade, up in grade, barrier draw, whether it races well fresh or needs a few runs, look at it's second up record, look at it's winning weights to see what it is capable of winning with, check where the rail is positioned, do speed maps to find out where my runner may position in the running, track conditions of course, look at stipe reports and take note of any gear changes. Also look at rider and take in birdcage looks and preliminaries so basically what I am saying is that I don't put all my eggs in one basket and rely on one dominant feature such as times but use a variety of means to come up with the horse I want to back in a race. The more work I put in the luckier I seem to get. I had one bet at Rotorua yesterday for example, (now before you say after the race) I will explain why. Munster in R3 who was having his first start. He was beaten a lip in his first trial by Green Bravo in what was the fastest of the 10 maiden heats and then won his second trial beating Reika in the fastest of the 11 heats. Both Green Bravo and Reika came out and won on debut. Munster drew the ace yesterday and based on his last trial from that draw I expected him to lead or trail and be right on pace. By my reckoning if they run the race 10 times I though he would win 9 times so at $2.90 on opening he was way overs and a top value bet. He jumped, led and won by a half length. And that's all she wrote.

I am well aware of that. However It is the process he follows beforehand to determine his perceived value in a field that I am discussing.

The one thing your computer doesn't have is a set of eyes Mardigras and yours don't seem to operate that well. You can't quantify an unlucky run per se and place it in a box or any other such things such as a hard run wide and a host of other things. To pick those up, recognize them and evaluate them comes from years of experience and knowledge. Nor can your computer pick out a horse by it's looks in the birdcage as Murray Fish pointed etc. Again it comes down to experience and knowledge. You can put all kinds of stats into your computer for it to spit out it's selections however experience and knowledge by using one's eyes is a vital player in this game, make no mistake.

I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time