All The Aces

“I was very lucky to be mentored by Mr Gray – I still call him that to this day too. I think he’s had five of us go on to win over 1000 races which has to be a record,” she says. Not so sure about that. Dave O'Sullivan had at least four Lance, Shayne Dye, Roger Lang and Peter Johnson. Brian Deacon had a number of good apprentices go through his stable. Childs, Walker, Campbell to name three.

It only got to within a head because DJ stopped riding Taroni . He was on the outside of her at the top of the straight and couldn't get past all the way down the straight and was never going to. It is apparent from discussions (and posts) that very few people have agreed with the decision and of course the statement above is always going to be written in support of their decision. We will have to disagree on this one.

Have to disagree with you on this one Thomas. Collett never stopped riding her horse at all. Meanwhile DJ couldn't ride her mount out. Forget chasing shadows, have a look at the horses themselves. There was no way the filly was going to let him get past. They could have gone another 100m and she would still have beaten him. Very poor decision I feel.

Had a look at this race this morning. What a farcical decision that was. The second horse across the line Bordeaux Le Rouge would never have beaten Taroni in a month of Sundays.

Went over to Whanganui races today with a couple of mates. We had a brilliant day, good crowd, great atmosphere and some very good racing. Excellent dinner and drinks on the way home and to top it off a quick check to see how the self promoted experts went on the other site and a great laugh to finish a fantastic day. ?

I'm in the Bay Murray. Burridge and Lange haven't mentioned anything about it. Will let them know ?

They used a sophisticated computer generated algorithms system to determine "win expectation" ie Multiplying the "horses" computer calculated probability by it's current odds. They both made hundreds of millions with Bob Benter striking a massive Triple Trio of $16 million which he never collected instead the Jockey Club giving it away to charity. They had a massive operation with a lot of people working for them. They both had teams of expert analysts including several Kiwis watching every race and video for subjective factors such as wide runs, unlucky runs, tempos etc. They found by doing this it made the algorithms far more effective.

Mardigras, is your computer system based on a similar system that Bob Benter and Allan Woods used in Hong Kong in the early 90s?

Probably Pat Comerford

Interesting reading value concept on the other site. Mardi's brother Bazza has had 1547 so far this year. This is the bloke that tried to prove to everyone two betting theories on how to make money with both ending disastrously very quickly with both threads abandoned. Anyone following either concept would go broke. Mardigras You say your system selects around 500 a horses a year, do you back all or cherry pick from the one's selected? I would total 150-170 bets per year no more and have never exceeded 200 in a year.

Incredible. No video analysis of races or trials. You would be the first and only form analyst that I could name to anyone that fails to do so.

Still is Murray. Hey, a couple of the older boys here in the Bay recall you at Awapuni when you were doing photographs at the races. Around the time when Ken Lush was doing it they said if you are the same person.

Seeing you don't watch videos of races or trials how do you assess first starters?

So you backed Piping Hot. Perhaps if you had taken time to watch the video of Captive you would have been on a winner instead of a loser...…..after all as he crossed the line George Simon said "And the punters got it right." perhaps he should have added" except Mardigras." ? PS. Did you notice that blinkers went on for the first time also ?

Well you agree he was a very good bet then. I trust you were on. Was your brother "Hesi" ?

I see that dickhead Hesi has been looking on and commented on the other site. Quite happy to name the horse "DH", it was Captive. Go and have a close look at the video of his run at Ellerslie when he finished tenth and if you weren't on yesterday ask yourself why the hell not.

Please yourself Mardi, no skin off my nose. I will keep doing what I do after all it is what I do that counts as far as my racing account balance looks and your opinion on matters has diddly squat to do with that.

Never mind Mardi you don't do video analysis so you probably wouldn't pick it up anyway. I don't mind if you think it is waste of time doing so I as I know being able to read races is an extremely important asset. Just the one bet today for me up at Te Rapa using that asset and I am pretty sure that Thomas would have been on as well. ?

Yes they do need to update their records. After hearing the time yesterday at the track I decided to check their records last night as 1:O8: something is a very quick time at Awapuni. So yes Gift Of Power ran 1:07:46 last December and they obviously haven't updated. Any way the time is irrelevant and a red herring as that was not the point I was making. The point was an unlucky runner last start going down in grade which is two things I take into consideration when doing a pre-race analysis as I advised earlier in the thread.

AWAPUNI TRACK RECORDS DISTANCE HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 800m Go Go 53kg 25 September 1993 00:48.20 1000m Navel Spray 51kg 12 January 1980 00:59.00 1100m I Robot 55.,5kg 22 December 2007 01:03.09 1200m Red Cent 53kg 17 December 1994 01:08.69 1300m Baldessarini 54kg 11 December 2004 01:15.66 1400m Maximum Star 55.5kg 28 March 2009 01:20.41 1600m Navajo Brave 51.5kg 26 December 1990 01:33.68 2000m Izonit 56kg 28 March 2009 02:00.14 2100m Antipodean 54kg 11 November 2008 02:08.17 2200m Azranee 52.5kg 16 January 1982 02:12.10 2300m Drogheda 50.5kg 17 December 1994 02:18.00 HURDLES HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 2600m Go For Broke 59.5kg 30 October 1976 02:49.80 2900m Ipso Facto 62kg 06 July 1992 03:11.68 STEEPLES HORSE WEIGHT DATE TIME 3200m Gold Reign 62.5kg 16 June 1978 03:57.20 3400m Black Ace 64.5kg 8 May 2002 03:59.71 4000m Grey Calute 57.5kg 12 May 1982 04:51.60 4150m The Jolly Dancer 64kg 16 September 2006 05:14.73 4400m Rioch 67kg 15 June 2013 05:13.30

1:01 is a full second over the record as I stated Mardi so no fact wrong there. According to the Race website the track record for 1200m at Awapuni is held by Red Cent set on 17/12/1994 at 1:08:69. The horse I am referring to ran 1:08:84 yesterday which is less than .3 variance. Perhaps it is you who should be checking his facts.

Wasn't close at all Mardi, over a full second off the track record. Try again.

I am sure 99.9% of most people would be easily able to figure it out.

Too late Mardi and as I have said previously I don't tip. The reason I mentioned it was on the basis of what I posted earlier in this thread on as to how I do analysis re video's (which you said you don't do) and how an example like this can help someone for the future. That way you could find it yourself and back it prior to the race and at value as the opening odds were very good. ?

I know some on the other site look in here. An unlucky horse last start (check the video) and back in grade yesterday wins at Awapuni just outside the track record set 25 years ago. ☺️