All The Aces

Well Einstein, if you are going to apply the theory of relativity then at least compare apples with apples not grapes to watermelons. He has only run one other 1600m which was back in November and the 1000 Guineas in NZ was nothing more than a dawdle and a sprint home down the straight with Catalyst breezing by after being held up and shouldering another runner at the 400m to run his last 600m in 32:16. His last 600m by the way on Saturday was 33.59. The comparison more aligned to apples with apples must surely be as I have already highlighted. All four horses he met in the CS Hayes that started in the Guineas despite all four being 1kg worse off at the weights were able to improve by at least three and a half lengths on him. Alligator Blood left him in his wake this time and the other three that he easily beat all beat him home this time.

What's wrong with being called Einstein? Truly I am in absolute awe your powers and that you would deign to communicate with us mere mortals. I mean, a horse that had won a maiden down South in October, had not started since due a several injuries and who had run 5th of 6 in a trial two weeks before resuming ( a trial that you didn't even bother watch) and you state that you were confident it would win. That is genius.....real Einstein stuff. Surely you must be flattered. A mere mortal such as myself I had to watch the trial to make up my mind and then reaffirm after looking at the horse in the back parade ring. So after reading that you thought Catalyst's run on Saturday wasn't that bad I am again feeling such inadequacy. You see I thought his run was poor for him as posted earlier on this thread . Fourteen days earlier in the CS Hayes Stakes Alligator Blood beat him by a head but this time kicks his head in by over four lengths and 1kg worse off at the weights. Three horses that finished behind Catalyst in the CS Hayes, Chenier, Soul Patch and Dalasan, the latter two some three lengths in arrears all beat him home in the Guineas, again all three meeting him 1kg worse at the weights. His action was poor in the Guineas and it has come at no surprise that he is suffering injury necessitating a spell back home in NZ. However, the conundrum I now face, seeing you thought the run wasn't bad, is do I contact Clayton Chipperfield and tell him a punting icon, a genius of Einstein proportions felt he went ok in the Guineas. So perhaps they should continue into the The Allstar Mile after all? What to do...….

He hadn't pressed the button at all. Several riders anticipated the start. MANCHU (L Innes) - Dislodged its rider when leaving the barriers. A Request for a Ruling was subsequently filed with the Judicial Committee as to whether MANCHU had been denied a fair start. In the course of the inquiry it was apparent that several runners had anticipated the start charging the front of the barriers prior to the start being effected shortly after this. After charging the front of the barriers L Innes, the rider of MANCHU, then had both feet out of the irons when the gates opened. After hearing submissions and viewing films the Judicial Committee declared MANCHU to be a non starter with all bets refunded. The Starter was spoken to regarding the incident and advised that in a similar circumstance time should be taken to ensure that all horses and riders are ready and in a fit condition for a start.

Exactly and his run on Saturday was terrible from him. For horses to run past him like that showed there was something wrong and it was no surprise that they undertook scans etc with him. The Einstein on the other site meanwhile stated "His run wasn't that bad on Saturday. Just not up to it on the day."

Boom three-year-old New Zealand galloper Catalyst has been withdrawn from the $5m All Star Mile after suffering a multiple fetlock injuries following his run in the Australian Guineas. Trainer Clayton Chipperfield has advised Racing Victoria stewards that his star horse Catalyst has been withdrawn from the All Star Mile field after suffering bruising to the horses four fetlocks.

Perhaps you would like to tell us how the hell Troy would be able to ride the horse. Couldn't make 57kgs at Te Rapa and is currently out with an injured shoulder until next month.

You seem to under an assumption that I check every video of every horse in every race. If you have been constantly following form that is not necessary, although one of my rules is to look at any trial of one in a field. For example I was already clear on Robusto's form and runs coming into the race and knew the 2200m would suit and as already stated happy with the $2.20FF that I could get around him. With regard to Exaltation (a half sister to Melody Belle) she hadn't raced since her debut win because of injury so there were two reasons I looked at the trial video. 1 As stated above I look at every trial if a horse has trialed in the race & 2 because of being off with that injury I wanted to assess where she was fitness wise. I was very happy with what I saw in that trial so backed her accordingly. The bonus was, because I was on-course I was also able to view her close up which gave me even more confidence where she was at, so I had another go at her as I was confident she was indeed ready. Relatively simple I would have thought and hardly time consuming plus I didn't have to go and put an actual price on every runner as you do. I look at the runner that I believe will win and consider what I will take on that runner. PS It won't be her last win.

And that is why I gave you a rating of B+ and not an A. In my opinion the ability to assess a horse's condition and use video for analysis before and after a race are high on my list of priorities. Now before someone goes on about after race I will mention that I went to our local meeting today and backed two horses. Both favourites. Both were from top stables and both had top rider Opie Bosson up. Two strong factors already. The first was Robusto, a horse in good form with the 2200m obviously going to suit her. Happy to take the $2.20FF on her. The other was Exaltation in the last. A horse who won first start at Riccarton last year and was fresh up. She had a recent trial finishing fifth of the six horses and was nine lengths off the winner at the line. Hardly an inspiring form line from that trial on paper however by looking at the video of that trial a totally different perspective is gained. She got up and won very nicely after being held up and paid $2.10 on the tote but earlier you could have got over $3s on her. I went and looked at her in the back parade ring noted how well she presented and promptly put some more on. Here is her trial the other day.

Well they did mention 200+ factors in their database and of course they didn't have enough time to go through those so who knows, however, blinkers, draws and movement of running rails were mentioned which are factors that you ignore. By your own previous admission you don't have the ability to look at a horse to determine it's fitness. You will also note Dan's" number one" factor was video analysis, again something you don't do. My interpretation from reading your posts is believing you are a Pittsburgh Phil disciple from the 1880/1890s and of course there weren't video replays, TV coverage etc in those days. You have your database like Phil did and follow his value theory but of course by not knowing how a horse looks or by not doing video analysis you are setting a limitation on your form analysis. My report card for you is a b+ "not bad but could be much improved if he applied himself better." As for Bazza, well we all saw those failed betting systems didn't we. He gets a big "F

If you have the time to build a database then do so as it certainly doesn't hurt and you can adapt to how you want to use it however these days there are enough websites with so much information re form, with ratings and video's you can easily use these successfully if applied properly. I did think it was interesting, and what I believe also is the different ways one can bet to make a profit. You will note that both bet in different jurisdictions and different markets with Dan happy to bet on maiden races in Victoria. Each to their own specialization, different strokes for different folks but making use of what is successful for their individual approach. There is no one rule for all.

Where have ballbag Bazza and his brothers gone? Absolutely nothing regarding the pro-punters video.

Not interested in discussing Rita or Racing Bill Submissions etc but concentrating on backing winners Bazza. You might enjoy this. https://bit.ly/2CqaGEN?fbclid=IwAR2dGgRLteMB10ZQ6Du5uC2Jal2Rex1dPUwwyd_k0k81E-Tz-1o-QKkrMWo

Well they certainly aren't Bazza's two losing punting systems that crashed and burned so spectacularly.

Te Akau Shark could have still won on Saturday with the saddle around the wrong way and a barrier blanket left on. What did the boys next door have him priced at?

Come on T, waste of time putting this up. You know the experts on the other side don't take any notice of gear changes, unlucky or wide runs, back in grade and all the other variables etc etc Just be thankful Jamie is not being advised by any of them.

So what race are you sponsoring this year Kopia?

signal1 /ˈsɪɡn(ə)l/ noun noun: signal; plural noun: signals 1. a gesture, action, or sound that is used to convey information or instructions, typically by prearrangement between the parties concerned.

email, text or smoke signals? It doesn't matter. As long as he advises the starter all the horses are loaded. Then and "Only Then" should the starter press the start button as per 6.18 in the Starters Manual rather than rely on assumption as in this case.

The Manual states: 6.18 Assistant Starter Prior to the Jump The Assistant Starter shall signal to the Starter that the final runner has been loaded, all gates are closed and a start may be effected. In the Ellerslie fiasco that did not happen. The assistant starter did not signal to the starter that all horses were in. The starter assumed they were all in and pressed the start button. If the Manual procedures were properly followed this incident would clearly not have happened. No brainer really.

Have you asked yourself why both have resigned Chief?

I noticed exactly the same kind of thing in the 50 Shades Of Grey series. ?

Bazza did try giving all sundry two sure fire systems to use but the only fire created was when he crashed and burned with both systems being abject failures. As I have said previously even a blind squirrel finds a nut now then. Probably best way to describe him....nut that is. ? You could be right, Mardigras and Curious could well be brothers, twins even, perhaps Siamese twins as they do seem closely connected somehow.

You seem to be confused Curious. The thread I refer to was specifically in relation to Karaka Million night spending $250k. It was never about a long term strategy. It was about six races on one night. A couple had put how they would have done the punting. Your chief cheerleader Hesi despite being told before he posted that exotics would kill the pool included to place a $40k quinella. Stupidity at it's best. Here's the rub Curious. I had heard a little relating to Boys get Paid prior to Karaka Millions night but hadn't taken much interest as I haven't really noticed their presence down this way. As mentioned it was my first visit to a Karaka Millions meeting last week and the evening was absolutely outstanding. It would have to rank as the best meeting that I have attended in NZ. Good crowd, good horses and such a buzz right around the course with culmination of the Boys Get Paid over on top of the public stand? Fireworks display after the last followed by a big on course party. Not one negative comment did I hear all night. I did end up meeting a number of the Boys Get Paid people when a lot of them came across to party after the last. They were fizzing and had a great night and I have become a member since so I can find out more about them and see what they are up to next. Out to the sales the following day and all in all a great weekend. As I Arnie said "I will be back."

It did. The first sentence was most constructive. "The Boys Get Paid syndicate members will be thanking God that the experts on the other channel were not doing the punting for them on Karaka Millions night." There wouldn't have been scenes of jubilation and singing in the stands by the Boys Get Paid reading through that thread.

I advised best price that I could find Mooncoin after checking with all the various agencies. I will leave it with you to work out as to why I tried to find best price. FYI I had three cracks one at $1.70 & 2 more at $1.60. Just wish Curious and Bazza were offering odds. $4.50 & $4.30 would have been beautiful. No bets for me today though. Keeping powder dry for next week if it lines up.