Weasel

On a previous thread I noted the lack of spine in TAB Bookies, who had Melody Belle at a ridiculously short price to win ($2.40 or thereabouts) the Railway WEEKS before the event. As expected something came along and she was unstuck (in this case a tough barrier, primarily, and a couple of well-weighted in-form sprinters called Santa Monica and Princess Kereru). So, on we go ...to the Telegraph..and guess what? Melody Belle is ODDS-ON to win the Telegraph, a fortnight before the race. She may not even make the race (by accident or design), the field has not been declared or the weights or the barrier draw. but, despite the Railway result, the invertebrates known as TAB HQ think she is a home run.

Times Ticking wins a 1000m maiden on debut at Tauherenikau. The first 3yo Tavistock male to win in NZ since June 16 last year. Probably the first Tavistock to win in NZ over 1000m Before yesterday, the most recent 10 Tavistock winners this season have been girls ...and most of his winners this season have been sprinter-milers. 2018/19 Season (unofficial ie my stats): 26 wins 20 from fillies and mares 6 from geldings (no colts) only 3 wins at middle distance (2000m+) 5 individual 3yo fillies have won only 1 male younger than 5yo (Times Ticking, ex Laoghaire, by Pins yesterday) I have no idea what all this means ...except that Tavistock's most recent crops racing in NZ are tending to throw sprinter-miler female winners, not Tarzinos and Werthers!

Unusual to see half-brother and sister debuting in consecutive races... Shanlane 3yo f by O'Reilly Shanpark 4yo g by Ocean Park Mother Shantaine from same family as Tavago/Grosvenor Good luck to all the connectios

Go to Show all Fixed Odds (other). Select: NZ Racing And bingo, you're there.

the Railway often throws up roughies who seem out of their depth but run the race of their lives ... if you're looking for a value place bet, Santa Monica $71 and $12 FO appeals to me. Consistent and honest, has run against and finished ahead of Princess Kereru before...no weight, experienced jockey, a draw to get a smother and if the gaps come and it gets an uninterrupted passage home, could lob into the money. On class alone, its between Bostonian and Melody Belle for me. Hopefully the jockeys on Ferrando and Gift Of Power wont f**k it all up with a muddling tempo that causes midfield/back runners problems settling into a rhythm.

Oaks nominated ...and finished strongly from the back at Matamata ...LEFT HANDED ... if you're catching my drift!

A quiet tip for the Rich Hill Mile. It's a her but it's a HIM.

I like Bostonian at the weights, he is classy and in form; Princess Kereru and Livin' On A Prayer the main dangers. Melody Belle and Volpe Veloce are classy contenders but MB will have to be a champ to win from that draw and the presence of Gift Of Power and Ferrando will ensure a strong tempo. As others have observed, this is the race of the season. I expect the winning margin will be hd/hd - luck in the running (esp getting a split at the right time will play a major part.

Thank you...and I will post an update when the funds are in the right hands. Happy New Year to you, Jess, and all the BOAYERS who have showed generosity of spirit and practical support for Maija.

no need to have a crack at the extreme distance of 3200m...why not the Cox Plate?

best of all...she's not fully mature. I agree that the Nz Gp 1 contenders at present are not brilliant and wouldnt be competititve in Oz in the autumn but DDD is a different proposition altogether - lightly tried, handles all tracks, versatile distance-wise and has an explosive sprint.In my view superior now to Savvy Coup (who beat DDD in the Livamol)and I hear the Waller stable and others wouldnt mind finding a box for her over there!!

I predict a Good 3. Mates if mine disappointed by injury to a contender forcing a withdrawal just a few days out.

mebbe ...what about Singapore stable of one D. Logan? Singapore Derby?

All hail to Danzdanzdance, Queen of the Turf. It is no mean feat to go from a 1600m Gp 1 left-handed to a Gp 1 over 2000m right-handed at Ellerslie. She has beaten multiple Gp 1 winners and did it off a slow tempo, coming wide on a heavy track. And left them for dead. I'd like to see her have a crack at the $5m All Stars Mile in Melbourne in the autumn. Well done, Chris Gibbs and Michelle Bradley and team at Ruakaka.

Account balance is $510.04... thanks to all contributors. The bank account has not been closed off, simply because I intend to get the dosh to Maija on New Year's Day at Ellerslie. Anyone who wishes to contribute can still do so. 12-3099-0086230-50 BOAY 4 MAIJA VANCE This young lady has an admirable positive attitude to her rehab and recovery. Let's help her get on her feet. Weasel aka Mustelid, M

For what its worth, I also rate Meeska Mooska great value bet in the bog race tomorrow. loves wet tracks and is an under-rated on-pace runner who fights hard to the line. Fitter for recent racing and I think the only reason he's at those attractive odds is lack of Gp 1 form. Could lead all the way.

...and the best thing you can do as Site owner/operator and moderator is BLOCK offensive posts or delete them when posted...please

Great idea to run the Xmas /NY comp ...what the hell has that idea got to do with all the other shit/nonsense? Answer: nothing. You don't need that garbage to run a great site!

mate, enter by all means...its just a fun comp ...al I'm saying is keep the other nonsense out of it, for everyone's sake! Merry Christmas!

Why don't all 3 sell, and put into a joint new racing complex at Karaka. Why build a new complex there? If the Avondale track is sound, why not build it at Avondale (where the stands/services are pathetic)?

Gentlemen, gentlemen (and ladies) Cant you see that this thread offering a pleasant Xmas comp has already been tainted/corrupted - and unnecessarily so - by references to He Who Should Not Be Named (?)

This horse Lumberjack made a big impression on me today at Ruakaka . Settled well back, got into the race quickly and exploded clear and looked like he'd get better as he went further. Reminded me of the way Hasselhoof won some of his early races. Has a Derby nom; is by Redwood from the family of Cure (1000 Guineas winner and 2nd in a Derby) and Fix...sot here;s no reason to think he wont get 2400m. Currently $26 in the Derby...if he wins another couple he could make things very interesting come Feb/March.

Report has been suspended by the RIU after multiple reports of excessive use of the whip and other non-festive behaviour throughout the afternoon in the relentless Ruakaka sun.

this is me doing a TommyTomTom...didnt see the thread re Ruakaka til after the meeting. It was only a midweek maiden at Ruakaka but Lumberjack showed an outstanding turn of foot and looked a likely Derby type. Currently at 26 FO

Lumberjack