What A Laugh

[All The Aces]

Haven't looked at that other site for awhile now as there is bugger all ever happening over there. But between races today decided to have a squizz to see if any dust had been moved. I haven't laughed so much for ages.

The two resident clowns Mardi and his sycophant side kick Bazza have really taken the cake this time. Both their assholes are no doubt extremely jealous the amount of shit that comes out of their mouths. 

These two self promoted experts state that Opie is no better than other jockeys.

Mardigras: He is just another rider

Bazza: Agreed. He is the most chronically over rated rider in NZ. Tina (Comignaghi) who is riding my girl tomorrow I would have 10 times over him. (Where did she finish Bazza?) 

The ability level of Comignaghi is almost identical.

These two experts on all matter racing reckon Opie Bosson is just a base ordinary rider no better than most others. 

Jesus wept:  What planet do these two inhabit, it's surely not in the real world. 

FFS you idiots he has ridden more G1 winners than any other NZ rider with over 65 G1 wins and has 205 Group and Listed wins in NZ without adding in his overseas black type wins. 

How many G1 winners has Comignaghi ridden? She has a total of 6 black type wins in total probably all down the South Island I expect.  

Thank goodness bugger all people go to that site to read their garbage.  

Obviously neither has the ability to recognise class horsemanship skills.

Still laughing....

   

[nomates]

I wont have a decent bet unless it is something that OPB is on , anyone else i can't trust . To suggest a SI rider is in the same class or better is leaving you open to being sectioned .

[Huey]

No idea if they are saying that, he is head and shoulders above the rest in NZ. Probably in Top 5 in Aus/NZ, imagine if he didn't have weight challenges. 

[nomates]

If he had been on Brando today he would have moved much earlier than Danielle , would have only been 3or 4 lengths off Balham turning in , different story , glad he wasn't . TA will be pissed ,  wanted Savabeel G1 colt . People will say " oh , he'll get one " , well i've heard that sooo many times , next time , next time , racing doesn't work that way . 

[Huey]

1 minute ago, nomates said:

If he had been on Brando today he would have moved much earlier than Danielle , would have only been 3or 4 lengths off Balham turning in , different story , glad he wasn't . TA will be pissed ,  wanted Savabeel G1 colt . People will say " oh , he'll get one " , well i've heard that sooo many times , next time , next time , racing doesn't work that way . 

He has run out of 3yo options outside of the staying classics if he wants to make a stallion based on that, of course there is always Aus. 

[Freda]

Wrt to the guys mentioned earlier- they are referring to value from a punting perspective,  not whether he is better than the other riders in any given situation. 

I'm not clever enough to do the maths but I do get where they are coming from. 

 

[nomates]

15 minutes ago, Freda said:

Wrt to the guys mentioned earlier- they are referring to value from a punting perspective,  not whether he is better than the other riders in any given situation. 

I'm not clever enough to do the maths but I do get where they are coming from. 

 

Well the value for me is knowing that my money is going to be given every opportunity to win , with OPB up the winning percentage is hugely increased as against all the others . Riding at better than 1 in 4 says it all for me .

[All The Aces]

19 minutes ago, Freda said:

Wrt to the guys mentioned earlier- they are referring to value from a punting perspective,  not whether he is better than the other riders in any given situation. 

I'm not clever enough to do the maths but I do get where they are coming from. 

 

 

That was a red herring that came up in discussion but was only a fraction of what they said. Go and have a re-read Freda of the whole thread.  

Btw  If you had a choice would you put Tina on ten times before Opie, it was your horse Bazza was referring to. 

 

[MarkyMark]

25 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

 

That was a red herring that came up in discussion but was only a fraction of what they said. Go and have a re-read Freda of the whole thread.  

Btw  If you had a choice would you put Tina on ten times before Opie, it was your horse Bazza was referring to. 

 

i have read it too, and freda is right, the discussion piece was on whether opie was value versus his rides, and previous riders on his mounts quoting sectional differences on his mounts against other jockeys, allbeit mardi could only cite 2 examples.

heres my view.

Opie is the best premier day rider in the country by far.  When the money is up, Opie is always the best. Agressive, and most of the time give them every chance, and he wont beat them to death if he doesnt have to.

tina is still learning her craft but she has very soft hands, and seems much kinder.  Some horses respond much better to this approach.

 

Horses too, different strokes..

 

Still there is only one Opie Bosson, he is the best premier day rider we have.  On a industry day, i dont place as much emphasis.

 

however from the odd time i we have been able to get opies agent on, opie is the best judge to give you a good opinion of your horses ability and what he thinks versus some others.

try getting after mount advice from cameron lammas......

[Freda]

1 hour ago, All The Aces said:

 

That was a red herring that came up in discussion but was only a fraction of what they said. Go and have a re-read Freda of the whole thread.  

Btw  If you had a choice would you put Tina on ten times before Opie, it was your horse Bazza was referring to. 

 

I have read, and do comprehend. 

Opie is superbly balanced and yes, definitely a Grp 1 rider. No argument there. Tina?   How many Grp 1's has she even ridden in?

Apples with apples.  Different education,  different requirements re. employment,  no exposure to the high-faluting stuff, nah, can't compare with any degree of fairness.  But I have seen Opie have brain fades that I wouldn't expect either, from a rider of his quality. Earlier in his career those top Aussie jocks could put him where they wanted him...and I think HK might have found him out a bit too.

But, coming from a different perspective altogether, would i pick Opie for my runner?  Do you think the lot I am getting up to every morning would interest him in the slightest?  My experience of top NI jocks has been ( generally ) woeful, they don't rate either SI horses or their trainers as a rule, unless they have been brought down by trainers to ride their team.  

I'm not the only one to find that instructions are ignored and the whole experience to be a waste of time.   At least the fledgling apprentice will try for you.

Exception would be Lisa Allpress,  who is a consummate professional .

James Mac rode a winner for me a while ago, he was pretty switched on too and great post race feedback. 

Edited January 16, 2021 by Freda

[nomates]

18 minutes ago, Freda said:

I'm not the only one to find that instructions are ignored and the whole experience to be a waste of time.   At least the fledgling apprentice will try for you.

 

Ha , i'm part of that club , it's not exclusive to the SI i can assure you . Being a noddy nobody ensures that your instruction may as well be written on a kite and be flying over the race course .

I've had a G1 rider do nothing i asked , then got off and proceded to suggest i try doing what i had just asked him to do . I checked both of ears and my lips to ensure that neither were painted on .

[MarkyMark]

10 hours ago, Freda said:

I have read, and do comprehend. 

Opie is superbly balanced and yes, definitely a Grp 1 rider. No argument there. Tina?   How many Grp 1's has she even ridden in?

Apples with apples.  Different education,  different requirements re. employment,  no exposure to the high-faluting stuff, nah, can't compare with any degree of fairness.  But I have seen Opie have brain fades that I wouldn't expect either, from a rider of his quality. Earlier in his career those top Aussie jocks could put him where they wanted him...and I think HK might have found him out a bit too.

But, coming from a different perspective altogether, would i pick Opie for my runner?  Do you think the lot I am getting up to every morning would interest him in the slightest?  My experience of top NI jocks has been ( generally ) woeful, they don't rate either SI horses or their trainers as a rule, unless they have been brought down by trainers to ride their team.  

I'm not the only one to find that instructions are ignored and the whole experience to be a waste of time.   At least the fledgling apprentice will try for you.

Exception would be Lisa Allpress,  who is a consummate professional .

James Mac rode a winner for me a while ago, he was pretty switched on too and great post race feedback. 

it can sometimes be six of one, and half a dozen of the other.

we had a slow big stayer by pyrus, big bloke.

had opie one day on a industry day at avondale over 2000, rated him perfectly in front, kicked on the turn, run down by a whisker paying 80 to 1. the 18s for a place was nice, but my stomach was sore, if he won we would have collected more then the winning stake...

went to te aroha next start 2200 maiden, had a senior jockey, instruction was he likes to go forward but let him find his rythym. Cameron Lammas tried riding him like he was vo rogue, we were gone at the 600, said he wasnt fit.  i can tell you we were fuming. thats a understatement

he didnt handle cut in the ground but we couldnt give him such soace in between runs so had to line him up, couldnt get opie, or any great senior jockey, got a young apprentice, again said let him roll, but he will do it on his own, dont hunt him up, and in a 2000 race,jumped well we were last at the 800, but fighting him trying to retrain him, fuck knows why, finished 5th. 

im sure freda you have had similar hair pulling experiences. but this is is a loose example of why i rate him so highly. opie gives the horse every chance, he lets them find his rythm, and gets the best out of them if its there.  this is the value to me of the best jockeys like opie.

we had another tough mare, in gold cloud. you had to let her jump and run, not fight her in the running. because we were a small stable we couldnt always get who we wanted but we had a great relationship with peter johnson and matthew williamson, they always listened, and rode her a treat. we used others, they think they know best, or try rating her, and then you could see she was having a meltdown. 

 

my point, great jockeys will take on board your advice, and give them every chance, and give you constructive feedback afterwards. for me Peter Johnson one of the best in doing this. and this is why opie is one of the best. 

i dont care about value, or value against runner, against previous jockeys on same runner or sectional difference.  Mardi cites slower sectionals, but is that because he rates the horse better?, i know from getting a jockey in the echelons of opie, you will get your chance, he will follow your instructions in most caes to the best of his ability, and you will get a great line on your horse afterwards.

lets says i had opie on, then afterwards callum jones on. would you read into a sectional difference on the same horse? not withstanding track difference in rating, bias, rail.  if callum jones rode the horse 0.2 seconds faster, does that mean anything? 

long winded post, trying to cite examples of how ludicrous i find the argument on another page trying to say opie and tina would be in the same boat.  

give tina time. i remember a young michael walker riding for us, there is a big difference in him now, to when he was a young bloke riding in NZ. Tina could still get there, but shes not in the same bracket as opie yet.

 

[KickintheKods]

Good heavens.

I've eaten a bowl of cornflakes, a plate of bacon, eggs, tomato and avocado on toast followed up by doris plum jam on rye bread and a sunk a soothing cup of coffee whilst reading that post of yours Mark.

But I did like it ( your post) and I agree.

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, KickintheKods said:

Good heavens.

I've eaten a bowl of cornflakes, a plate of bacon, eggs, tomato and avocado on toast followed up by doris plum jam on rye bread and a sunk a soothing cup of coffee whilst reading that post of yours Mark.

But I did like it ( your post) and I agree.

Did Doris wash the dishes afterwards?

[nomates]

For me the difference with the big jocks and the rest is decisions , they make more good ones , and fewer bad ones .

[Chief Stipe]

22 minutes ago, nomates said:

For me the difference with the big jocks and the rest is decisions , they make more good ones , and fewer bad ones .

The big difference in NZ is the gap between the top jocks and the rest.  Not only are the top ones in a very small group but the gap to the rest is significant.

You don't have that issue with Metrop races in OZ.  Any one of about 20 jocks you would be happy to ride your horse be it from an owner, trainer or punter perspective.

In my opinion if you had assessed two horses having equal chance in a race based on your assessment of their ability/chance in relative to the field and one was ridden by a top echelon jock and the other by a non-claiming apprentice then I know which one I would choose.  However you might find that the one ridden by the top jock was offering less value on the tote than the other.  Then you make a judgement on how much you are willing to pay as a punter for the difference in value to have the top jock on.  At the end of the day doesn't matter what the assessed value is if it doesn't return a dividend!

I do find it a bit rich for people to pontificate about their particular method and to publicly state that they earn their living from essentially losing punters.    

I've known some very successful punters over the years and they don't seek publicity and generally do their calculations in their head or written in their racebook.  They don't need an algorithm and a computer crunching years of data to pop out numbers and then look for outliers in value.  Especially when that value is determined by what other's assume in the market.

Personally I've found over the years that for some reason that I can't explain I'm very successful in the Spring and early Autumn especially on OZ Metrop tracks.  Perhaps that's because generally the horses are wound up over there not like here where trainers use racing to get them fit.  Also the tracks are more consistent and forgiving for all horses therefore they are more likely to race to their ability.  Summer tracks (especially in NZ) can be so inconsistent regardless of how they are measured.  

The other times when I've had some success is oncourse where I will ignore racebook form initially and assess each horse in the parade ring.  I'm not great company on those days I can tell you!  If you asked me what I actually look for in an effort to translate that into a computer programme you would fail!

[Thomass]

18 hours ago, All The Aces said:

Haven't looked at that other site for awhile now as there is bugger all ever happening over there. But between races today decided to have a squizz to see if any dust had been moved. I haven't laughed so much for ages.

The two resident clowns Mardi and his sycophant side kick Bazza have really taken the cake this time. Both their assholes are no doubt extremely jealous the amount of shit that comes out of their mouths. 

These two self promoted experts state that Opie is no better than other jockeys.

Mardigras: He is just another rider

Bazza: Agreed. He is the most chronically over rated rider in NZ. Tina (Comignaghi) who is riding my girl tomorrow I would have 10 times over him. (Where did she finish Bazza?) 

The ability level of Comignaghi is almost identical.

These two experts on all matter racing reckon Opie Bosson is just a base ordinary rider no better than most others. 

Jesus wept:  What planet do these two inhabit, it's surely not in the real world. 

FFS you idiots he has ridden more G1 winners than any other NZ rider with over 65 G1 wins and has 205 Group and Listed wins in NZ without adding in his overseas black type wins. 

How many G1 winners has Comignaghi ridden? She has a total of 6 black type wins in total probably all down the South Island I expect.  

Thank goodness bugger all people go to that site to read their garbage.  

Obviously neither has the ability to recognise class horsemanship skills.

Still laughing....

   

On the nail again A...truely hilarious stuff

Some of these 'statsmen' go to bed with numbers in their noggin and wake up with a jumbled blomage of mush brain...

...even an autistic savant can succeed in one area of mathematical bent...but these bozos couldn't channel Crunchie the clown let alone that...

They tried to justify Opee's FAIL stats cf another Jock's faster times on the same horse...

Its the old 'stats lies damn lies' thing again

ANY horseman knows how good Opee is compared to a journeyman....

What consigns these Clowns 'stats' to the trash though...

Is their previous history

"we find value in the H11 rail runners at Whanganui"

pfffft...next

 

 

 

[Shad]

We had a top jock on one day, drew wide admittedly, 60kg never went forward or back, sat 3 wide for most of the race, over 2200m, decided to go forward at the 900m mark, well you know where we finished, told us horse never handled track conditions, backed up a week later same track and conditions, and won.

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

We had a top jock on one day, drew wide admittedly, 60kg never went forward or back, sat 3 wide for most of the race, over 2200m, decided to go forward at the 900m mark, well you know where we finished, told us horse never handled track conditions, backed up a week later same track and conditions, and won.

I found out the hard way one day that there are a number of "Senior Jockey's" that are only attained the term through longevity not skill or class.  Our horse was in a Grp 2 (might have been a Grp 1) at Trentham.  Finally we had a track to suit on the firm side of Good and she was on fire fitness wise.  2000m race or 2200m can't remember which but it was her distance.  Jumps perfectly and gets a nice run three back on the rail.  Didn't spend a penny to get there.  The pace was good.  With 800m to go the trainer and I in the members stand had adrenaline starting to pump through our veins.  We knew that when the breaks were released about 350m up the straight as per instructions she wouldn't be beaten.  So what happens at the 650m?

The Jockey sets sail for home!  Within 100m she's 6 lengths in front!  At bloody Trentham of all places.  When he made the move I said out loud - "You fucking idiot!".  It might have been worse than that given the looks from the prim and proper.  In 100m went from a high to being as flat as.  Sure enough even though she was a tough mare who never gave up she was run down over the last 100m.

The trainer asked the Jockey "Why?"  The Jockey responded "She was going so well I thought I could catch them napping."  The Jockey was lucky that I didn't talk to him as he wouldn't have ever had to waste again to ride light!

I calculated that that one decision had cost me $80,000 in bets and largely residual value of a multiple Group winning mare.  Probably cost the Syndicate over half a million!

[nomates]

For me , i simply ask myself the question , " if this person was riding in Australia , what level of racing would they be able to be competitive at ? " . Bosson for me is at the moment is the only NZ jock that could go straight over and pick up good race rides , the rest would have to prove themselves and i don't even know if there is a handful that could cut it in Sydney . Personally i think the vast majority are only of country standard .

[All The Aces]

BTW despite assertions on the other site I will categorically state that Chief and I are not one and the same person and nor do I post on the other site so they are off on the wrong tangent yet again.  

I only have a look over there now and again to see what rubbish they come up with next. 🤣

[All The Aces]

So the village narcissist has placed the following on the other site:

"  On 1/13/2021 at 8:06 PM, mardigras said:

I assess chance ignoring jockey, and over the last 10 years, he has won 40 races less than I've assessed the chances of his mounts. That is quite significant.

Of course, you may just say my assessments are shit. However Betfair are on record as suggesting my assessments are rare in regards the overall assessment ability from their collective customers.

Since some asked who I would prefer to Bosson, If I had the choice of jockey for any race - these would be some I would consider (in no order)

T Harris

L Allpress 

A Comignaghi

J Fawcett

D Johnson

H Tinsley

H Andrews

S Weatherley 

R Schofer

J Parkes

Jockeys such as 

O Bosson

S Wynne

K Asano

I would not put on.  I'd likely be happy with most of them in being able to ride without sacrificing chance. The top ones are less likely to affect the price of my runner. Obviously in a G1, S Wynne and K Asano are less likely to affect price as well. So that list is in general.

My view is that Bosson gives me no advantage (in winning the race) from his riding to many jockeys. That's my opinion of course. I'd expect there are many jockeys that would have the strike rate of Bosson if they had the rides he has. Again my opinion, and it is my assessment of his rides ignoring that he is riding them, is how I have come to that opinion.

The ability to even try and do  that objectively is something that is not able to be done by either the Chief or ATA. That is guaranteed. They are like the majority, look at results and determine therefore they are superior."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well indeed it is just an opinion and yes many assessments would likely be shit.  "Over 10 years he has won 40 races less than what I assessed the chances of his mounts."

That is an average of four per year assuming those chances were assessed correctly and that is highly questionable and improbable that Mardi assessed everything 100%. Just because he rated the horse on top doesn't mean it is a top bet. 

I took time out this morning and looked at my figures which were actual bets placed and what I found was that on the horses that I have backed over the last five years that Opie Bosson rode, the win strike of those bets was 86.3%.  I didn't realise that it was that high to be fair. Bear in mind as I have previously advised I only have a total of 130-150 bets per year.  Just looking at the NZTR website including this year just now, over the last eight years his win strike rate is outstanding with a win in less than every five rides .  

By Mardi's admission last year in a discussion on betting he advised that 90% of your betting was on Australian and Northern Hemisphere racing and only about 10% on NZ racing (or figures in that vicinity) yet he professes to be an expert on NZ racing. Surely if Mardi had NZ racing completely dancing on a shoestring that percentage on NZ racing would be a massively higher. A pro like him would be cleaning up here surely. 

Just to show how out of touch he is he includes Hayden Tinsley who retired a couple of years ago and Holly Andrew who doesn't appear to be riding and not listed as a rider at NZTR in his list of riders of who he would put on. Good luck with that Mardi. 

Now I must get hold of David Ellis and advise him that according to Mardi his annual six figure retainer to Opie Bosson is a complete waste  of money.            

[nomates]

If he would rather back J Fawcett ahead of OPB i'm glad it's his money and not mine . OPB is riding at better than 1 in 4 at present . 

There is a reason he gets those plum rides , when the money is up he doesn't melt . I can guarantee  Te Akau are rueing OPB Not being on Brando on Sat , missed the G1 win for a Savabeel colt , what cost for the owners if he can't win another somewhere else , as Huey said no more G1 miles for 3yo's in NZ this season , so now must perform in Aus .

How many of those other Jocks have had job offers from Aussie stables . There is a reason .

[Joe Bloggs]

42 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

So the village narcissist has placed the following on the other site:

"  On 1/13/2021 at 8:06 PM, mardigras said:

I assess chance ignoring jockey, and over the last 10 years, he has won 40 races less than I've assessed the chances of his mounts. That is quite significant.

Of course, you may just say my assessments are shit. However Betfair are on record as suggesting my assessments are rare in regards the overall assessment ability from their collective customers.

Since some asked who I would prefer to Bosson, If I had the choice of jockey for any race - these would be some I would consider (in no order)

T Harris

L Allpress 

A Comignaghi

J Fawcett

D Johnson

H Tinsley

H Andrews

S Weatherley 

R Schofer

J Parkes

Jockeys such as 

O Bosson

S Wynne

K Asano

I would not put on.  I'd likely be happy with most of them in being able to ride without sacrificing chance. The top ones are less likely to affect the price of my runner. Obviously in a G1, S Wynne and K Asano are less likely to affect price as well. So that list is in general.

My view is that Bosson gives me no advantage (in winning the race) from his riding to many jockeys. That's my opinion of course. I'd expect there are many jockeys that would have the strike rate of Bosson if they had the rides he has. Again my opinion, and it is my assessment of his rides ignoring that he is riding them, is how I have come to that opinion.

The ability to even try and do  that objectively is something that is not able to be done by either the Chief or ATA. That is guaranteed. They are like the majority, look at results and determine therefore they are superior."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well indeed it is just an opinion and yes many assessments would likely be shit.  "Over 10 years he has won 40 races less than what I assessed the chances of his mounts."

That is an average of four per year assuming those chances were assessed correctly and that is highly questionable and improbable that Mardi assessed everything 100%. Just because he rated the horse on top doesn't mean it is a top bet. 

I took time out this morning and looked at my figures which were actual bets placed and what I found was that on the horses that I have backed over the last five years that Opie Bosson rode, the win strike of those bets was 86.3%.  I didn't realise that it was that high to be fair. Bear in mind as I have previously advised I only have a total of 130-150 bets per year.  Just looking at the NZTR website including this year just now, over the last eight years his win strike rate is outstanding with a win in less than every five rides .  

By Mardi's admission last year in a discussion on betting he advised that 90% of your betting was on Australian and Northern Hemisphere racing and only about 10% on NZ racing (or figures in that vicinity) yet he professes to be an expert on NZ racing. Surely if Mardi had NZ racing completely dancing on a shoestring that percentage on NZ racing would be a massively higher. A pro like him would be cleaning up here surely. 

Just to show how out of touch he is he includes Hayden Tinsley who retired a couple of years ago and Holly Andrew who doesn't appear to be riding and not listed as a rider at NZTR in his list of riders of who he would put on. Good luck with that Mardi. 

Now I must get hold of David Ellis and advise him that according to Mardi his annual six figure retainer to Opie Bosson is a complete waste  of money.            

Can I ask a polite question? Bosson on a 6 figure retainer, when you're racing most of the time for less than 5K to the winner?  Do Ellis's syndicate owners pay it? is it in the prospectus? I can see this coming up in the next release of 'Trivial Pursuit'............it's a real crowd stumper......if true.

[Huey]

8 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Can I ask a polite question? Bosson on a 6 figure retainer, when you're racing most of the time for less than 5K to the winner?  Do Ellis's syndicate owners pay it? is it in the prospectus? I can see this coming up in the next release of 'Trivial Pursuit'............it's a real crowd stumper......if true.

It's a very interesting question  and I don't have the answer , one would awesome it would be priced into the daily rate?