Chief Stipe Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 On 11/10/2021 at 8:44 PM, holy ravioli said: It's your opinion ...not fact at all. So the majority opinion which you now subscribe to is that Caulfield can "catch horses out" or "they sometimes don't fire"...... 12 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: You are guilty of 'changing your mind'...the evidence is here to confirm it. My position is consistent to the premise.Show that it is not. Where have I changed my mind? I said that Caulfield can catch some horses out especially the first time they go round there. Your premise now is that there are "horses for courses". I don't adhere to that premise at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 On 11/10/2021 at 8:44 PM, holy ravioli said: It's your opinion ...not fact at all. So the majority opinion which you now subscribe to is that Caulfield can "catch horses out" or "they sometimes don't fire"...... 12 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: You are guilty of 'changing your mind'...the evidence is here to confirm it. My position is consistent to the premise.Show that it is not. Where have I changed my mind? I said that Caulfield can catch some horses out especially the first time they go round there. Your premise now is that there are "horses for courses". I don't adhere to that premise at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: So the majority opinion which you now subscribe to is that Caulfield can "catch horses out" or "they sometimes don't fire"...... Where have I changed my mind? I said that Caulfield can catch some horses out especially the first time they go round there. Your premise now is that there are "horses for courses". I don't adhere to that premise at all. Heard you the first time! Please qualify 'the majority of opinion'=how big is the poll sample? Can you not see that by stating' CAULFIELD can catch some horses out'you are adhering to the 'horses for courses' theory.Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 I'll back you chief, 1st time at Caulfield, tread warily, it can bring even the best undone, IMO it's the dog leg syndrome, and the rise going up the back......but many have done their dough backing a good thing going 1st time at the 'Heath'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said: I'll back you chief, 1st time at Caulfield, tread warily, it can bring even the best undone, IMO it's the dog leg syndrome, and the rise going up the back......but many have done their dough backing a good thing going 1st time at the 'Heath'. Can Moonee Valley' catch some horses out',can Doomben,can x,y,z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said: I'll back you chief, 1st time at Caulfield, tread warily, it can bring even the best undone, IMO it's the dog leg syndrome, and the rise going up the back......but many have done their dough backing a good thing going 1st time at the 'Heath'. Yes very few realise there is a "hill" on the course. As for Moonee Valley it doesn't seem to have the same effect on newcomers. I'm not sure why but I'm sure Joe you have a theory. My thoughts are that you can improve position down the school side straight and the final bend is well cambered so leaders and swoopers are both suited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Can you not see that by stating' CAULFIELD can catch some horses out'you are adhering to the 'horses for courses' theory.Lol. Because they are not mutually exclusive statements. The initiated that haven't spent much time around horses don't realise that horses are very aware of their surroundings and have incredible memories. Some horses need a decent race gallop on a course before working it out. Hence most of the major Cox Plate players are having their final track gallops over the last week to 2 weeks on the Moonee Valley course. So Caulfield can trip a horse up the first time. But more often than not they will race OK next time there. The "horses for courses" premise based on observation doesn't stack up statistically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 34 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Yes very few realise there is a "hill" on the course. As for Moonee Valley it doesn't seem to have the same effect on newcomers. I'm not sure why but I'm sure Joe you have a theory. My thoughts are that you can improve position down the school side straight and the final bend is well cambered so leaders and swoopers are both suited. Chief, 3 of my first 4 runners at the Valley won, the other a 2yo Braquer ran 2nd to my old Boss's horse Sister Angela......my horse's were all vastly different, Pabulum a rangy, gangly old Kiwi staying type got around the Valley like he'd been there all his life, liked Caulfield too where hew was listed placed, the other two Nemonic and Agathist were having their first runs at the Valley and won easily.......Pat Hyland, Garry Clarke and Glen Darrington [Colin Hayes apprentice] were the pilots and all had amazing success riding the Valley, it's tricky. yes, but the good jocks knew where and when to go at the Valley, as does Jamie Kah nowadays at Caulfield ......IMO she rides that track better than anyone. At both tracks the pressure goes on about the 700, there is a top straight at Caulfield and you need to get going if you are back a bit about the 800 and if the favoured horses are in on the fence you by going around them cause a panic inside and often it's too late for those jocks riding too pretty.......same at the Valley, if you go before the school and wind up you'll often catch the pretty riders napping, and C Williams swoops pretty well there, as did Dwayne Dunn at his peak.....anyway, that my take, I offer it as I see it..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Because they are not mutually exclusive statements. The initiated that haven't spent much time around horses don't realise that horses are very aware of their surroundings and have incredible memories. Some horses need a decent race gallop on a course before working it out. Hence most of the major Cox Plate players are having their final track gallops over the last week to 2 weeks on the Moonee Valley course. So Caulfield can trip a horse up the first time. But more often than not they will race OK next time there. The "horses for courses" premise based on observation doesn't stack up statistically. 'horses for courses' is based on real stats.i.e. Awapuni 12 starts 0 wins...0 placed. The UNinitiated, regarding training horses can form their own opinions regardless. Much the same as you do not have to be an All Black to have an opinion on AB play. ' But more often than not they will race OK next time there.'=oh really Chief!Hope you're not making it up as you go. By the way ,I think my memory is pretty good....and I'm not a....horse.Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, holy ravioli said: horses for courses' is based on real stats.i.e. Awapuni 12 starts 0 wins...0 placed. Which horse are you referring to? How many races did it win on its "favourite" courses? What were the track conditions, weight carried, distance and class of field in each of those 12 races at Awapuni? 3 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: ' But more often than not they will race OK next time there.'=oh really Chief!Hope you're not making it up as you go. I'm not making anything up. Finer more experienced judges than I would agree with what I've said. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: Which horse are you referring to? How many races did it win on its "favourite" courses? What were the track conditions, weight carried, distance and class of field in each of those 12 races at Awapuni? I'm not making anything up. Finer more experienced judges than I would agree with what I've said. The variables you mention prevail at ALL tracks. Anonymous,finer ,more experienced judges ............'....do behave..Chief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: The variables you mention prevail at ALL tracks. But do they have more influence on performance than the horses ability or the location of the track? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 52 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: But do they have more influence on performance than the horses ability or the location of the track? 53 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: But do they have more influence on performance than the horses ability or the location of the track? You are tying yourself in theoretical knots now Chief. To remind you of the origin of the discussion.....Zaaki having his first start at Caulfield ran 1 and 3/4 length 3rd in a Group 1 race! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: To remind you of the origin of the discussion.....Zaaki having his first start at Caulfield ran 1 and 3/4 length 3rd in a Group 1 race! Both the Jockey then and his next Jockey have said since that sometimes a horse doesn't fire at Caulfield. Don't take up sailing or fishing Pasta where knots are important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 I think HR is a jock, trainer, owner, breaker, breeder, and form technician.....or all the above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 47 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: ..Zaaki having his first start at Caulfield ran 1 and 3/4 length 3rd in a Group 1 race! Was he not a mudder strking a firm surface ???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Elephant nominated for the Scwheppes Crystal Mile Grp2 on Cox Plate Day. Still in noms for Cox Plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Both the Jockey then and his next Jockey have said since that sometimes a horse doesn't fire at Caulfield. Don't take up sailing or fishing Pasta where knots are important. Rod knows what you learned at Lincoln! 3rd in a Grp 1 at his first go on the track. Nod may have nailed the reason he was a bit disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Rod knows what you learned at Lincoln! Who's Rod? Perhaps @nod is right but you appear to have missed his classification of Zaaki as a "mudder". Seven of his nine wins have been on Good ground. So based on those stats I would disagree with @nod. Granted his best wins have been on a Good 4 not a Good 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Who's Rod? Perhaps @nod is right but you appear to have missed his classification of Zaaki as a "mudder". Seven of his nine wins have been on Good ground. So based on those stats I would disagree with @nod. On those stats I would too. Seems that the $1.20 tote price has fuelled attempts to justify him running 3rd in a Grp 1. So far we've had the 'blame' attributed to the Caulfield track itself,track conditions,rider error......maybe on the day Probabeel and Non Conformist were just better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 hours ago, holy ravioli said: Non Conformist were just better. Didn't Saturdays Caulfield Cup run prove how good this bloke is. Wide the trip and a clear 2nd. He's near the best stayer in Oz now. That winner of CC was supreme though! did you see the 10's of 1000's of dollars go on it (Incentivise) late too. Plenty of happy Punters spending their Nature Strip winnings !!!!!!! What a bonanza weekend all round Australia (and hope NZ too) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 13 hours ago, holy ravioli said: So far we've had the 'blame' attributed to the Caulfield track itself,track conditions,rider error......maybe on the day Probabeel and Non Conformist were just better. That is a bit of a daft statement and a cliched one! Obviously "on the day" they were better. However the question is did Zaaki run up to his rating? At 118 arguably not. I note that when questioned by the Stewards the Trainer said "After viewing the race she was of the view that the gelding raced keenly today and in her opinion may not have handled the Caulfield track". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: That is a bit of a daft statement and a cliched one! Obviously "on the day" they were better. However the question is did Zaaki run up to his rating? At 118 arguably not. I note that when questioned by the Stewards the Trainer said "After viewing the race she was of the view that the gelding raced keenly today and in her opinion may not have handled the Caulfield track". Trainers (and jockeys)are never short on excuses. If you don't like that excuse she has another one for you...rider error- Williams should have upped the tempo...earlier! p.s they may well be better 'on another day too'!=thats the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Trainers (and jockeys)are never short on excuses. Depends on the competence of the Trainer or Jockey you are listening to. If a horse performs below its ability or rating then there are reasons. So a good Trainer will attempt to find the reason (you call it an excuse). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 15 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Who's Rod? Perhaps @nod is right but you appear to have missed his classification of Zaaki as a "mudder". Seven of his nine wins have been on Good ground. So based on those stats I would disagree with @nod. Granted his best wins have been on a Good 4 not a Good 3. I wasn't classifying anything --just asking a question . hence the question marks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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