mardigras Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) If I was betting R2 (although I tend to stear clear of races with first starters), I'd be Mowenna who I priced at $6. Edited December 21, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, barryb said: 14:05 ash R02 5 Baccio $10.00 Go Pam, a huge unknown but trial was good enough to suggest a chance in this field. Unlucky Pam, was searching for a run the whole straight. Next time on a more roomy track perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, The Centaur said: Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means. Blue Print = Thomass dream bet that was placed after the race was won, best claimed as a winner the next day for maximum effect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12:53 awa R01 4 Fibonacci $6.50 14:35 awa R04 3 Skarloey $4.00 15:10 awa R05 1 Rock Band $25.00 15:45 awa R06 5 Jacksstar $11.00 15:45 awa R06 6 Rock On $15.00 16:20 awa R07 5 Southern Icon $25.00 16:55 awa R08 9 Toms $4.00 Bet of the Holidays possibly 12:35 wai R01 4 Pattern $4.00 13:10 wai R02 3 Guillocharm $11.00 14:55 wai R05 1 Iffindoubt $6.50 15:30 wai R06 12 Crystallize $9.00 Great bet 16:04 wai R07 11 Treasure $4.50 WTF, bet of the day at Te Rapa 16:39 wai R08 11 Easy Walking $6.00 Mardi thoughts?. I think there are some super bets in that bunch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12:53 awa R01 4 Fibonacci $6.50 ($9.80,$12.00) 14:35 awa R04 3 Skarloey $4.00 ($3.05,$6.00) 15:10 awa R05 1 Rock Band $25.00 ($40.00,$61.00) 15:45 awa R06 5 Jacksstar $11.00 ($27.00,$18.00) 15:45 awa R06 6 Rock On $15.00 ($11.50,$31.00) 16:20 awa R07 5 Southern Icon $25.00 ($34.00,$61.00), 16:55 awa R08 9 Toms $4.00 Bet of the Holidays possibly ($8.80,$10.00) 12:35 wai R01 4 Pattern $4.00 ($6.80,$6.50) 13:10 wai R02 3 Guillocharm $11.00 ($20.00,$18.00) 14:55 wai R05 1 Iffindoubt $6.50 ($8.80,$9.00) 15:30 wai R06 12 Crystallize $9.00 Great bet ($14.00,$18.00) 16:04 wai R07 11 Treasure $4.50 WTF, bet of the day at Te Rapa ($9.80,$12.00) 16:39 wai R08 11 Easy Walking $6.00 ($9.00,$8.50) My prices beside yours, with NZ TAB fixed at time of writing. Yes, some good odds for you there barry. A number of mine a bit closer to the NZ price although most still under a little. Hope you have a great day! A couple of ones I like at odds Awapuni R5 #6 Percy's Gem ($4.30,$15.00) And Te Rapa R8 #2 Nothing Trivial ($7.20,$26.00) Odds not quite there.. Awapuni R6, I think Glory Days too short - I'd look at #13 Porcelain Princess ($7.20,$9.50) but not a lot in it. Thoughts on those barry? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) A couple of ones I like at odds Awapuni R5 #6 Percy's Gem ($4.30,$15.00) Rated $11.00 And Te Rapa R8 #2 Nothing Trivial ($7.20,$26.00) Rated $15.00 Odds not quite there.. Awapuni R6, I think Glory Days too short - I'd look at #13 Porcelain Princess ($7.20,$9.50) but not a lot in it. Rated $9.00 I rated Glory Days $5.50, not even close to a bet for me, Rock On is a super bet in that race. Edited December 21, 2018 by barryb 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) Some might think its strange how we can be so different in some of these, short answer is we are highlighting the extreme differences as great bets. Many of the others not shown here will be rated very similar. Now a loon like Thomass might say "well Glory Days is over the line" and it possibly is, but at the current odds in my opinion its unders and can win without me being interested, its a losing proposition at the odds. Between Mardi and I we have found 3 bets in the race at terrific overs which are far superior betting options long term. Edited December 21, 2018 by barryb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, barryb said: Some might think its strange how we can be so different in some of these, short answer is we are highlighting the extreme differences as great bets. Many of the others not shown here will be rated very similar. Now a loon like Thomass might say "well Glory Days is over the line" and it possibly is, but at the current odds in my opinion its unders and can win without me being interested, its a losing proposition at the odds. Between Mardi and I we have found 3 bets in the race at terrific overs which are far superior betting options long term. Totally agree barry. I've just been looking at bigger variances. And being different doesn't mean either party is incorrect. If you take betfair odds as a guide to chance. Their closing odds are pretty good at matching to chance at a price point over time. For a single race, there is simply no right or wrong answer- so long as over time, your assessments ultimately deliver at least reasonably in line with your assessments. As for Glory Days, I have it at $4.80. And like barry says, it could well win and I'd rather not bet on the race, or lose on something else than back it. That's simply how I bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Rock On wahooooo 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, barryb said: Rock On wahooooo 5 hours ago, mardigras said: 15:45 awa R06 6 Rock On $15.00 ($11.50,$31.00) Gee barry, was that before the race. Funny how between the 3 horses put up by the two of us, that was the clear value runner for both of us! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 I tipped it too on the comp thread 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snypnz Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Hi, new to this site, just found it the other day, but just wanna say to barryb, thanks for the tip, Rock On was awesome, will be following some more of your tips going forward. Quick question. do you also pick the harness meets? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 31 minutes ago, barryb said: Rock On wahooooo Massive value!! Good work both of you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) Should have put this race in the mix. Time for a Thomass moment. Winner pays $30 on bf - after the scratching. Easy first 4. Edited December 22, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 You'd have to say that your selections barryb and the various price assessments stand up under scrutiny. For win punters - and even for place punters. Your horses gave punters a run for their money. On FF divs, your 13 selections produced $31.00FF win and $23.00FF place. From the nine of yours I priced under TAB price shown - $31.00FF win and $17.00FF place. From the two of yours I priced under your prices $31FF win $8.70FF place. Good stuff again barry. That's the credibility we never see from the BP. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, mardigras said: Good stuff again barry. That's the credibility we never see from the BP. For sure, as usual we don't hear a peep out of the BP fruitcake. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, snypnz said: Quick question. do you also pick the harness meets? Nope, don't touch Harness, far far too much behind closed doors to make any reasoning out of selections. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 hours ago, barryb said: Rock On wahooooo Very nice certainly value for both yourself and Mardi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
globederby12 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, barryb said: Nope, don't touch Harness, far far too much behind closed doors to make any reasoning out of selections. Ha ha. Yeah Barry it is harder work the the thieves on wheels. Worth the effort in the end though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just so no one can point a Thomass finger at me. And posted well before Barry's post, so not cribbed hesi 1,309 Replied: 11 hours ago Greeting gents and good luck today I will go for a little bit of value with #3 Dolcetto in Comp Race 9 Good course stats, unlucky last time, has to strike form soon, in a weakish field I also like for a lot of value, Rock On in the Cup. Been watching it the last few starts and starting to run on nicely, so maybe today 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 43 minutes ago, hesi said: Just so no one can point a Thomass finger at me. And posted well before Barry's post, so not cribbed hesi 1,309 Replied: 11 hours ago Greeting gents and good luck today I will go for a little bit of value with #3 Dolcetto in Comp Race 9 Good course stats, unlucky last time, has to strike form soon, in a weakish field I also like for a lot of value, Rock On in the Cup. Been watching it the last few starts and starting to run on nicely, so maybe today What did you price it at that made you say it was a lot of value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, curious said: What did you price it at that made you say it was a lot of value? A lot less than 33, but other than that, pass, still learning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, hesi said: A lot less than 33, but other than that, pass, still learning Well thanks to Rock On I have just got home from dining out and a few beverages. Bet Thomass is still in the Piha dunes with his blow up doll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poisoned Dwarf Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 On 20/12/2018 at 6:58 PM, The Centaur said: Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means. something Brendan Popplewell selects 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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