curious
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Everything posted by curious
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Perhaps you would lead the way on that?
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wtf is determanitive analysis as applied to betting? And I think you'll find it's the BP that's subjective. This is quantified methodology. And I don't do simulations. Mardi does. You can call it what you like. I call it a winner and the BP a loser.
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Probably because I didn't rate Winx a 100% chance and I don't tip anyway. If I did, I would probably have tipped her as my rated best chance. However, if I didn't think she was value and something else was overpriced based on my rating of its chance, then I would have recommended backing that. If it was a 1% chance paying $150, that would be value and at that price I need to land 1 in a hundred to be well ahead. Some on here have got the idea about winning but you obviously haven't, so stick to the BP and top the account up on Monday.
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I would generally back a rated 50% chance @ $2.50. Again, everyone's different and I do equally well on them as I do with say 4% chances but I avoid the latter because of the long runs of misses. You have to adapt to what you are comfortable with.
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So are you going to take barryb up and contribute to the prize Thommo? And Newmarket, I don't think anywhere I tried to change the rules. In the spirit of the season I added to the prize so the winner can potentially make a significant donation to their favourite charity and Mardi added to that and the take home prize for the winner. If you win, you need not accept my share of the prize. That's fine with me. I'll donate it directly to my choice of charity instead.
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From the rules for this on the comps thread: 2. 2 best bets on each day, which means you have $2 ew on those selections I've set up the dart board for those!
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Hmmm..fair point barryb. However, I think that's covered isn't it? If I rate something as a dead set cert, it's a 100% chance and all other runners are necessarily 0% chances. I might or might not find sufficient value in the 100% chance to have a bet, but I also will never find value in any of the 0% ones?
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NO, not a mistake! That's exactly what you should do. Not back the horses you think are most likely to win (if no value), but the ones that represent value relative to the chance of winning you rate them to have. Stick with that.
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What did you price it at that made you say it was a lot of value?
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Massive value!! Good work both of you
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No explanation in the report either???
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There'll be bragging rights whomever wins.
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They've already saved much more than that on not upgrading tracks in the last few decades but look where that has got them. Totally illogical logic.
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My $200 bet though can be FO or tote at the winners choice.
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OK .... in the spirit of the holiday season, I'll add $200 to the prize. Condition is you get one NZTAB bet with that and any proceeds go to a charity of the winners choice.
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Yeahh, I had it at 2.80, not that I trust my NZ pricing yet. Couldn't touch it. The returns always come, not that some understand the principle. I've had 60-70 misses in a row on 20+/1 chances, then landed 3 or 4 in the next 40. That's the whole idea of sticking with value bets and making sure your pricing is more accurate than the market.
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Better than the 3 I backed!
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I don't usually do comps but might come up with a variant of the BP for this one. My generalised population stats suggest it should produce slightly better results than the BP if applied before the races. It won't have a dog's show against the BP applied after the races though.
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I'm all for free speech however stupid it may seem to be. We all have a choice about what we read or believe. On the other hand, I hate to think that people might be misled, especially if that ends up costing them money. Whatever, I'd say caveat emptor applies and a bit of diligence on BOAY would well inform anyone about the risks of the BP.
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Not a doll, a princess I think.
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Yep, it'll need a comp where entries close "at the start of racing on each day" but the day after the events you are betting on. I assumed that's what you meant in your rules? Should be a close contest that way too.
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Looks pretty good at evens right now. Probably be a BP bet tomorrow.
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Fields at Manawatu 22 December - Sure Sign Something is Wrong
curious replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
You've made no case for that. Stakes should be directly in relation to revenue generated, not geography. On that basis it will probably be closer to the other way round. Where would the extra money come from for your proposal? -
That's called competition, I think. Most other industries have it. For some reason, this one wants the inefficient, poor product an economical operations to be subsided by the rest and from the proceeds of other business.
