curious

Absolutely. As I said, I try to assess ability based on the conditions, primarily track condition and distance of today's event.

No. Because I think strike rate (raw) is useless information unless it is calculated adjusted for the ability and chance of the runners it is based on. Even then, I don't think you can apply a population statistic like that to an individual runner. That's what Thommo does.

I probably avoid that necessity (if it is one) by only betting on meetings where it is unlikely that any "useless" jockeys are not likely to get a ride, so I trust the connections' ability to ensure that. This means that I can start from the assumption that all jockeys are equal or at least that any variance has a very small impact on overall chance and I if I'm wrong, it's because I don't know how to reliably assess that variance. So, for example, I've been working on assessing Oz racing for a year or two now and expect to be betting there next year. To start with, I expect that will be limited to Sydney, Melbourne metro meetings where I can reasonably apply the above assumption, though the limitation is not solely for that reason.

My assessment of chance is primarily based on assessment of ability especially as that relates to the conditions of the current event. That assessment is mainly based on race times. I then convert that assessment to chance though in nowhere near as sophisticated a way as mardi does. What I don't do is give much or any weight to variables like trainer, jockey, barrier draw, carried weight, gear changes or class of race. I don't use sectionals or speed maps either though I do give some weight to what I call "racing style".

Yeah... Might be my phone but I don't see the BP market yet? No bet for me on that race anyway.

Sorry for the delay. Working under some difficulty here and as others have said, not much data, but based on a Dead 5, best I can do for now. Might have time for an update tomorrow.

He prepared the fucking thing. Of course he would say it is fine and they are too lazy to check before risking the health and safety of horses and riders. Another case of the crash test dummy approach.

"I’m a serial failure" .... We can see that John but you don't need to advertise it. Why the racing industry would employ a "serial failure" in a key position so they can replicate their previous failures is beyond my comprehension.

No. Why? The market should rule. Are you a leftie looking for more free handouts?

Yes, the BP is well short of a good length to take any wickets.

Maybe Thommo could start a thread on how to win without being restricted, so we all can do it?

A dead duck/wet dream/too many whiskeys? Wasn't mentioned in the Messara report.

Is there such a thing as RITA? Has it been established or is it another racing myth?

That's what you don't lay. But what do you lay?

I don't care who they are "recognised" by. Where is your evidence? Do you not understand the difference?

If you do, then answer my question and prove blinkers makes them go faster.

Yep me too even though I don't routinely do ratings for NZ racing. I'm also away at a wedding most of Friday and Saturday so probably would have to do this Thursday night based on expected track conditions and may not be able to update.

Good idea. ROI would probably be more predictable too. A steady return of 80-85% of turnover.

Good discussion here guys. Some really useful thoughts. I think what Mardi means by patience, Newmarket, is that better pricing and more value can emerge over time. Hence why he rechecks prices several times as the event gets closer. The key point I take from this thread is that the critical ingredient is accurate assessment of chance (at least more accurate than the market), whether you are backing or laying. Then finding suitable pricing to make all bets value at your acceptable margin (or more).

Because it is Sunday and the Princess's day in bed, tomorrow I'll be going with "S" for Silicone.

where was that again?

Oh.... and my princess is not made out of silicone ...

They will no doubt look better tomorrow

sorry Thommo....I do punt here...and successfully... but not much ... < 1 percent of my total punting. Dream on...and keep updating us with your successful punting after the races have been run.

lol...