Happy Sunrise Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Pick your winner and why. Winner: The Fixer Why: I reckon there are 3 brackets of horses on the starting grid who can win. The first being Copy That and The Fixer, the second being Self Assured and Ashley Locaz, and the third is Spankem and Classie Brigade. I think The Fixer will get out in front of Copy That at the start but Copy That will not want to be on the pegs behind something so will work his way to the front with The Fixer in behind him. This leaves Ashley Locaz somewhere near the lead with his manners but I don't think Mr Orange will give the lead away to him. So with more than half the race over Spankem and Classie Brigade come round together to challenge the lead but Copy That does not hand up as it is too close to home. The Fixer stays in the trail and runs past Copy That on the post. Where is Self Assured? He is very slow away and ends up at the back with Spankem and Classie Brigade at best. The position of Copy That is the most intriguing part of the race for me. Plus, no one can hand up to an All Star because you know you will end up 3 deep because a stablemate will be given the lead easily. The Fixer has come on very well since I wrote him off after he got last due to his heart issue. Very nice trial the other day and seemed very keen to keep running after the post, loves 2 miles, good from the stand and it would be a great victory for Regan Todd. The best value in the race by far. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karrots Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I love this. And yes The Fixer is on my list for a trifecta potential. I quite like him. Took a quick look thru your post and summary, great potential analysis. Very thought through. I will reply properly tomorrow with my selection Winner selection and Why. I hope others take-part also :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted November 7, 2020 Author Share Posted November 7, 2020 Just now, Karrots said: potential analysis So true. I didn't factor in the Lamb factor, Self Assured leading after 50m and the rain....all bets are off 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said: So true. I didn't factor in the Lamb factor, Self Assured leading after 50m and the rain....all bets are off 😂 Forecast 13 degrees on tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Showers are forecast for Tuesday. It could be the first time in a very long time, that the cup is run in the wet. My memory escapes me, I'm getting too old; when was the last time the actual cup race itself was run in the rain? Rain and a sou' wester will bring with it three major concerns. 1. The body art competition with the near naked ladies (do they have fellas in this these days too, with the gender equality thing and all that?) could turn out to be a disaster/success. It's one thing being nippy, for want of a better term, but being both cold and wet, I feel these days with OSH guidelines the bodyart competition may have to be hit on the head. Of course the more traditional best dressed competitions will still be held; a much more Classie Brigade of ladies and gentlemen. 2. Someone should contact E-Can. With rain forecast, there is every chance the fake tan will be running off legs quicker than an Aveross Spitfire last quarter, sorry wrong horse, I meant Self Assured or Spankem. With the rain, the fake tan runoff will be contaminanting the waterways pretty quickly. 3. Has starter Lamb been sacked yet, or is he still the RIIIIIIIGGGGHT man for the job? I only ask as the combination of the sou'-wester and the standing start position on course (down the back straight) is the worst possible thing. His booming voice will be amplified somewhat, so it is advised that all horses and drivers wear ear plugs. Barrier one may not be so bad afterall, if it means the starter can't be heard as well from here, thus Blair Nathan Orange won't be able to say Copy That to Lamb. So all things considered, the first four should be between Copy That, Classie Brigade, Self Assured and Spankem. In a year to forget, the only real surprise for Cup day this year, could be the rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karrots Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 2 more sleeps to go. And a weather tip has come in, it may not be the best. When selecting a winner, is tricky, we have another potential viable to consider. Tipster Happy has spoken, Tipster Karrots is struggling to chose 1 from 8 potentials. The others tipsters are playing it cool, biding their time. No word yet from the restricted. A bit of fun. Here we go: Winner: Copy That Why: So many different scenarios could eventuate. With every different scenario, equates to a different outcome. Who knows which scenario will take place. I hope this scenario comes into fruition. Copy That steps safely, a little slow, but he is away. The Fixer steps well, Robyns Playboy steps well, Mach Shard heads straight for the rail. A few runners ahead of him now, what does Orange do, he knows his chances are better if he stays ahead of Self Assured and Spankem who are behind him. He makes a move and times it perfectly. The lead horse hands to Copy That, knowing it will be in the trail the rest of the trip. Moves are coming from the pack, but Copy That puffs his chest out. They file into the running line. Turning for home, he holds the advantage, the crowd goes wild, they are coming for him. The North Island supporters hold their breathes. Can he hold them, will he hold them. Will the extra distance find him out ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
globederby12 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Just remember people that when the moneys up a little machine goes into overdrive spinning like mad. Nothing will change on Tuesday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Deadbeat between Spankem and Self Assured. The Fixer will be first out giving Copy That the trail for first half.Then Classie Brigade will come around with Spankem,Ashley Locaz and Self Assured following 3 wide.CB will be happy to move outside the leader knowing the Allstars will probably go lead,trail and outside lead.Giving CB the 1-1 and putting Copy That 4 back.on fence. Self Assured and Spankem will fight it out down straight with Ashley Locaz stopping and Classie Brigade will flash home for third.Copy That getting through late for an unlucky 4th. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karrots Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Tipster Richie and Tipster Globe have shared their scenarios. Presenting different and interesting ones. Will any of our scenarios be a hit or will we collectively as a group be a miss? Maybe we need a couple more scenarios, to up our odds of us collectively being on the money. Any takers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunterthepunter Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 3 hours ago, globederby12 said: Just remember people that when the moneys up a little machine goes into overdrive spinning like mad. Nothing will change on Tuesday. changed would be good. copy that and classy brigade to win for me be great for a change . the Dunns to have big cup week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Copy That to lead all the way I was a little gun shy about him after his 2nd at ATC, but the last start win convinced me If Self Assured's starting manners were better I'd have picked him Copy That, Spankem, Self Assured, Mach Shard in order I will be cheering for Classie Brigade and would have had him in the mix if he had drawn the front line Mike 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Gee I'm gunna get a bit technical here,it would be nice if someone other than All Stars win but I think Spankem is well drawn for the type of race he goes best,sitting back and running on strong,if Self Assured don't waste ground he will probably burn them all off,Copy That at one,sometimes the one draw can be a nuisance,getting shuffled back as others goes forward,Classie Brigade is the opposite of Copy That with the poorest draw being used up more,as for the others they do have a chance as they are in the race but realistically none will win unless something untoward happens and in racing anything can happen,I can't see a 38000 first four but if anything untoward happened and the top four don't get there the sky's the limit,hard to know if anyone would even be braver enough to bet against a favs top four. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ Flash Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Self Assured at good enough odds for me to unload. Unfortunately and i hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking Lamb may a bigger part in the races outcome than the respective horses ability. Greg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karrots Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Thanks Tipster JJ, tipster Mikenz and tipster Mikie for your input of potential scenarios that could unfold. Also we had tipster Rusty speak earlier with a thought filled analysis. I still have yet to decide on my fun bet I will actually take. Now, Im swaying towards trying a 1st 4 or maybe even a horse to finish top 5. Happy punting and good luck everyone, if you are taking a bet. All the best, to connections for every horse that races tomorrow. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karrots Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 PS and Tipster HunterThePunter. See you all on the other side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mardy Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 After the Flying Stakes,where i backed Copy That,mainly because i wasn't keen on anything else. I was impressed with his winning effort,seemed to do it really well and didn't look to take anything out of himself.So i thought yes Copy That will be my pick for the race,and then i saw that he came up with the pole,which had me rethinking a little bit.First of all,he's going to be the first horse to line up and if they stuff around,then he will be standing for a while,yes his manners look good,but that can all change on Cup Day.And then their is the chance that he could bobble away from the pole and end up buried,which won't help him.And outside of the All Stars the only other runner i'd look at backing was Classie Brigade,but he's drawn not well for him,so after all that i will stick with Copy That,and just hope that it all goes his way and if it does then he's a big chance of stopping the blue army's domination on the race. And on a personal note,if my newborn son needs a nappy change around start time,as much as i love him,that nappy will have to wait. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davis Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Spankem for me. I think he will win it and Rasmussen's, one of the world's best drivers, record in the race is hard to beat. Natalie is not often beaten in a close finish. Like Greg I am concerned about Lamb. The race start could be a shambles if not Lamb's best day. Frankly, I think the odds are higher than even that Lamb will fuckup the Cup start. Wonder if the TAB taking beats on that? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
globederby12 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Class usually rises to the top in these races. In which case it is Spankem or Self Assured, if he steps . I really think the one draw will trip up Copy That and leave him poorly placed in the running. The Fixer for my sleeper, gets away well and can run the distance. An AS trifecta dare I say it. Wash my mouth out with soap and water. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I love all the different scenarios that people think may or may not eventuate. It's quite interesting to hear different points of view and analysis. I think we are all in agreement that the starter will not get things Riiiiight, and we probably won't be HAPPY with the start. Hope I'm wrong. Last two things I will say: 1. Whatever scenario M Guerin thinks will eventuate, the opposite will happen (love you Mick). 2. "Marker pegs are gold, gold, gold and you can't come from behind the pace, you need to be up there handy turning for home." Better punting everyone. Enjoy your Cup day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 11 hours ago, Karrots said: Thanks Tipster JJ, tipster Mikenz and tipster Mikie for your input of potential scenarios that could unfold. Also we had tipster Rusty speak earlier with a thought filled analysis. I still have yet to decide on my fun bet I will actually take. Now, Im swaying towards trying a 1st 4 or maybe even a horse to finish top 5. Happy punting and good luck everyone, if you are taking a bet. All the best, to connections for every horse that races tomorrow. Gee calling me a tipster,I'm overcome with emotion, If one only knew about my tipping abilities lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harewood Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 As much as I love Copy That I do not think a hard 2 miles is his go. I have followed him since he was a wayward young horse who could hardly pace a yard without breaking to now possibly the most brilliant horse racing in NZ. He can win if he gets a soft run in behind but will need all favors over the 3200. Too much of a risk. I will say he cannot win if he leads. My pick is Self Assured who can do some work or sprint home with the best of them. Im not worried about the start over the back where it is quiet away from the crowd noise. And I cannot get Classie Brigades run out of my mind when he ran a NZ track record and showed a different side sprinting from last. Was an awesome win. Can finnish over the top of them if run at record pace. Good luck everbody and we will all have egg on our face if another Borana pops up out of the pack. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 https://southernharness.co.nz/ Really good listen from multiple trainers if anyone's interested in the major southern horses for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 LOL. Oh dear did the Starter hand that one to the All Stars. The first run up the All Stars didn't get it right and turn away. So the Starter calls them up again and the outside All Stars on the outside of the front line are fair running at the tape when he lets them go!! All over then and the ALL Stars controlled it going 3:55! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Yep, horses from 5 out were already flying when the tape went Copy That had no show Mikie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: LOL. Oh dear did the Starter hand that one to the All Stars. The first run up the All Stars didn't get it right and turn away. So the Starter calls them up again and the outside All Stars on the outside of the front line are fair running at the tape when he lets them go!! All over then and the ALL Stars controlled it going 3:55! No starter said #3 not right Outstanding from Allstars.Bad draws but too good on the day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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