any longshot tips for today 10 to 1 over

[mardigras]

If I was betting R2 (although I tend to stear clear of races with first starters), I'd be Mowenna who I priced at $6.

Edited December 21, 2018 by mardigras

[barryb]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

14:05 ash R02  5 Baccio    $10.00 Go Pam, a huge unknown but trial was good enough to suggest a chance in this field.

Unlucky Pam, was searching for a run the whole straight.

Next time on a more roomy track perhaps.

[The Centaur]

Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means.

[barryb]

Just now, The Centaur said:

Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means.

Blue Print = Thomass dream bet that was placed after the race was won, best claimed as a winner the next day for maximum effect.

[barryb]

12:53 awa R01  4 Fibonacci       $6.50
14:35 awa R04  3 Skarloey        $4.00
15:10 awa R05  1 Rock Band      $25.00 
15:45 awa R06  5 Jacksstar       $11.00
15:45 awa R06  6 Rock On         $15.00
16:20 awa R07  5 Southern Icon   $25.00
16:55 awa R08  9 Toms    $4.00  Bet of the Holidays possibly

       
12:35 wai R01  4 Pattern     $4.00    
13:10 wai R02  3 Guillocharm     $11.00
14:55 wai R05  1 Iffindoubt      $6.50
15:30 wai R06 12 Crystallize     $9.00 Great bet
16:04 wai R07 11 Treasure        $4.50 WTF, bet of the day at Te Rapa
16:39 wai R08 11 Easy Walking    $6.00

 

Mardi thoughts?. I think there are some super bets in that bunch.

[mardigras]

12:53 awa R01  4 Fibonacci       $6.50 ($9.80,$12.00)
14:35 awa R04  3 Skarloey        $4.00 ($3.05,$6.00)
15:10 awa R05  1 Rock Band       $25.00 ($40.00,$61.00)
15:45 awa R06  5 Jacksstar       $11.00 ($27.00,$18.00)
15:45 awa R06  6 Rock On         $15.00 ($11.50,$31.00)
16:20 awa R07  5 Southern Icon   $25.00 ($34.00,$61.00),
16:55 awa R08  9 Toms            $4.00  Bet of the Holidays possibly ($8.80,$10.00)

       
12:35 wai R01  4 Pattern         $4.00 ($6.80,$6.50)
13:10 wai R02  3 Guillocharm     $11.00 ($20.00,$18.00)
14:55 wai R05  1 Iffindoubt      $6.50 ($8.80,$9.00)
15:30 wai R06 12 Crystallize     $9.00 Great bet ($14.00,$18.00)
16:04 wai R07 11 Treasure        $4.50 WTF, bet of the day at Te Rapa ($9.80,$12.00)
16:39 wai R08 11 Easy Walking    $6.00 ($9.00,$8.50)

My prices beside yours, with NZ TAB fixed at time of writing. Yes, some good odds for you there barry. A number of mine a bit closer to the NZ price although most still under a little. Hope you have a great day!

A couple of ones I like at odds

Awapuni R5 #6 Percy's Gem ($4.30,$15.00)

And Te Rapa R8 #2 Nothing Trivial ($7.20,$26.00)

Odds not quite there..

Awapuni R6, I think Glory Days too short - I'd look at #13 Porcelain Princess ($7.20,$9.50) but not a lot in it.

Thoughts on those barry?

[barryb]

A couple of ones I like at odds

Awapuni R5 #6 Percy's Gem ($4.30,$15.00) Rated $11.00

And Te Rapa R8 #2 Nothing Trivial ($7.20,$26.00) Rated $15.00

Odds not quite there..

Awapuni R6, I think Glory Days too short - I'd look at #13 Porcelain Princess ($7.20,$9.50) but not a lot in it. Rated $9.00

I rated Glory Days $5.50, not even close to a bet for me, Rock On is a super bet in that race.

Edited December 21, 2018 by barryb

[barryb]

Some might think its strange how we can be so different in some of these, short answer is we are highlighting the extreme differences as great bets. Many of the others not shown here will be rated very similar.

Now a loon like Thomass might say "well Glory Days is over the line" and it possibly is, but at the current odds in my opinion its unders and can win without me being interested, its a losing proposition at the odds. Between Mardi and I we have found 3 bets in the race at terrific overs which are far superior betting options long term.

Edited December 21, 2018 by barryb

[mardigras]

15 minutes ago, barryb said:

Some might think its strange how we can be so different in some of these, short answer is we are highlighting the extreme differences as great bets. Many of the others not shown here will be rated very similar.

Now a loon like Thomass might say "well Glory Days is over the line" and it possibly is, but at the current odds in my opinion its unders and can win without me being interested, its a losing proposition at the odds. Between Mardi and I we have found 3 bets in the race at terrific overs which are far superior betting options long term.

Totally agree barry. I've just been looking at bigger variances. And being different doesn't mean either party is incorrect. If you take betfair odds as a guide to chance. Their closing odds are pretty good at matching to chance at a price point over time. For a single race, there is simply no right or wrong answer- so long as over time, your assessments ultimately deliver at least reasonably in line with your assessments.

As for Glory Days, I have it at $4.80. And like barry says, it could well win and I'd rather not bet on the race, or lose on something else than back it. That's simply how I bet.

[barryb]

Rock On wahooooo

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, barryb said:

Rock On wahooooo

 

5 hours ago, mardigras said:

15:45 awa R06  6 Rock On         $15.00 ($11.50,$31.00)

Gee barry, was that before the race. Funny how between the 3 horses put up by the two of us, that was the clear value runner for both of us!

[hesi]

I tipped it too on the comp thread

[snypnz]

Hi, new to this site, just found it the other day, but just wanna say to barryb, thanks for the tip, Rock On was awesome, will be following some more of your tips going forward.

Quick question. do you also pick the harness meets?

[curious]

31 minutes ago, barryb said:

Rock On wahooooo

Massive value!! Good work both of you

[mardigras]

Should have put this race in the mix. Time for a Thomass moment.

Winner pays $30 on bf - after the scratching. Easy first 4.

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by mardigras

[mardigras]

You'd have to say that your selections barryb and the various price assessments stand up under scrutiny. For win punters - and even for place punters. Your horses gave punters a run for their money. On FF divs, your 13 selections produced $31.00FF win and $23.00FF place.

From the nine of yours I priced under TAB price shown - $31.00FF win and $17.00FF place.

From the two of yours I priced under your prices  $31FF win $8.70FF place.  

Good stuff again barry. That's the credibility we never see from the BP.

[barryb]

1 minute ago, mardigras said:

Good stuff again barry. That's the credibility we never see from the BP.

For sure, as usual we don't hear a peep out of the BP fruitcake.

[barryb]

1 hour ago, snypnz said:

Quick question. do you also pick the harness meets?

Nope, don't touch Harness, far far too much behind closed doors to make any reasoning out of selections.

[VC!]

2 hours ago, barryb said:

Rock On wahooooo

Very nice certainly value for both yourself and Mardi 

[globederby12]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

Nope, don't touch Harness, far far too much behind closed doors to make any reasoning out of selections.

Ha ha. Yeah Barry it is harder work the the thieves on wheels. Worth the effort in the end though. 

[hesi]

Just so no one can point a Thomass finger at me.

And posted well before Barry's post, so not cribbed

hesi  1,309

Replied: 11 hours ago

Greeting gents and good luck today

I will go for a little bit of value with #3 Dolcetto in Comp Race 9

Good course stats, unlucky last time, has to strike form soon, in a weakish field

I also like for a lot of value, Rock On in the Cup.  Been watching it the last few starts and starting to run on nicely, so maybe today

[curious]

43 minutes ago, hesi said:

Just so no one can point a Thomass finger at me.

And posted well before Barry's post, so not cribbed

hesi  1,309

Replied: 11 hours ago

Greeting gents and good luck today

I will go for a little bit of value with #3 Dolcetto in Comp Race 9

Good course stats, unlucky last time, has to strike form soon, in a weakish field

I also like for a lot of value, Rock On in the Cup.  Been watching it the last few starts and starting to run on nicely, so maybe today

What did you price it at that made you say it was a lot of value?

[hesi]

24 minutes ago, curious said:

What did you price it at that made you say it was a lot of value?

A lot less than 33, but other than that, pass, still learning

[barryb]

55 minutes ago, hesi said:

A lot less than 33, but other than that, pass, still learning

Well thanks to Rock On I have just got home from dining out and a few beverages.

Bet Thomass is still in the Piha dunes with his blow up doll.

[Poisoned Dwarf]

On 20/12/2018 at 6:58 PM, The Centaur said:

Excuse my ignorance but could someone explain what a BP bet means.

something Brendan Popplewell selects