The Race

[mikeynz]

44 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

Unfortunately there are some smart punters out there with means who are able to beat the house, It is not really that hard if you know what you are doing. It would be quite easy to win many millions a year with no holds barred betting as the bookies make many mistakes with their odds. There have to be restrictions or there will be no payouts for the industry. The New Zealand pool of money is simply not big enough to allow no restrictions.

That's where a outfit like Betfair is good, betting against others, some of the head to head pools are massive and they are just the middle man.

Maybe this is another option for the TAB to explore.

Edited April 15, 2022 by mikeynz

[Nowornever]

5 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

That's where a outfit like Betfair is good, betting against others, some of the head to head pools are massive and they are just the middle man.

Maybe this is another option for the TAB to explore.

A global pool would be the best option for the punters but most countries are against the idea because they do not like to share and how do you split the profits? Also the pools in New Zealand harness would still not be that big even with a global pool.

As for the TAB exploring options, the TAB even stopped Australians from betting into our pools and got rid of free to air trackside, not to mention managing to get screwed over building the new website.  Do you think they can make good decisions after seeing those ignominious failures?

[Doomed]

8 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

 

As for the TAB exploring options, the TAB even stopped Australians from betting into our pools and got rid of free to air trackside, not to mention managing to get screwed over building the new website.  Do you think they can make good decisions after seeing those ignominious failures?

Being the natural optimist that I am, I like to think that purely on the basis of percentages they should get at least one decision correct sooner rather than later.

[Gammalite]

2 hours ago, Doomed said:

As I say, I'm not a big trotting follower these days, and I wouldn't have known the race even existed if I hadn't looked on here, and I may be missing something totally, but I just don't get the business sense in all this. Why would 10 groups of people invest in a something that they were 90% guaranteed to lose money.

People STILL support and indulge in sport for FUN mate. including harness racing.

If you watched your 'wallet as closely as the many on this thread harness racing would collapse tomorrow. 

Many owners might spend a million a year , like Seymour and Garrard in Brisbane for example , but they are wealthy men and have FUN and enjoy the racing , and generally KEEP IT AFLOAT. Most slot holders have got a quid already so it's NOT ALWAYS about the money .(unless you are Brodie ?? )

 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, MarkyMark said:

You can still bet fixed odds. I have been able to place significant bets through both agency and self service

Not the tote though!

Well done Marky! Depends  what you call significant

The thing is  why should a citizen of  NZ  be treated like a criminal when they are doing nothing  wrong ?

The TAB business plan is flawed and needs amending.

They would make far more by encouraging the wagering on harness rather than discouraging!!

They are being kept profitable by overseas racing and sports betting!

The younger ones are betting on Sports nowadays as there is no incentive to have a crack at harness racing!

Edited April 15, 2022 by Brodie

[Brodie]

45 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

People STILL support and indulge in sport for FUN mate. including harness racing.

If you watched your 'wallet as closely as the many on this thread harness racing would collapse tomorrow. 

Many owners might spend a million a year , like Seymour and Garrard in Brisbane for example , but they are wealthy men and have FUN and enjoy the racing , and generally KEEP IT AFLOAT. Most slot holders have got a quid already so it's NOT ALWAYS about the money .(unless you are Brodie ?? )

 

Gamma, no it is not just about the money, there is also the enjoyment of the sport!

However the harness industry has gone backwards over the last few decades and the erosion seems to have set in!

Auckland was once a very strong city with strong fields but now it is stuffed due to many decisions.

As I have said many times the $ is not the most important thing but I enjoy the challenge as per the previous slogan, “you know the odds now beat them”.

 

[Gammalite]

45 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Gamma, no it is not just about the money, there is also the enjoyment of the sport!

However the harness industry has gone backwards over the last few decades and the erosion seems to have set in!

Auckland was once a very strong city with strong fields but now it is stuffed due to many decisions.

As I have said many times the $ is not the most important thing but I enjoy the challenge as per the previous slogan, “you know the odds now beat them”.

 

I think it is admirable that you and some like Ludwig for example support the looser class horses and the lesser known racing centres. Often involving some harness tradition too. like the Kindergarten Stakes the other day. Also won by Allstars (for 5th year running I think.) Olivia T getting the job done.

I'm glad you appreciate ALLstars too. I can see you love their work with Southcoast Arden. I do too. but wasn't gunna throw old mate Mango under the bus like you. Afterall He did do a fair bit with that horse at times lol.....  not enough to please the Brodster though... hehehe. You missed the bus on being a horse trainer mate lol... could of been on the money lol.

I see Auckland is not high on the'popular' list with many. and yes , some of the decisions like that developement disaster , have wrecked things a bit.  

AUCKLAND Needs someone like we got here in Brissy , (millionaires Garrard and Seymour) to take action by breeding incentives and breeding horses (sponsored age group racing) bringing in their mates from other fields to have a crack,  etc to prop the game up  ,  or it will be dead for all. Lots of folk live in Auckland but the entertainment factor is spread amongst other pastimes , and dollars are tight in a lot of cases.

I have even given up betting NZ trots (and am a Dour Supporter) and make a living punting on football actually. Only 2 starters per and odds way better than horses considering . and find them matches easy to pick. So guess harness racing is in trouble when supporters like myself are giving it away lol........

[MarkyMark]

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

Not the tote though!

Well done Marky! Depends  what you call significant

The thing is  why should a citizen of  NZ  be treated like a criminal when they are doing nothing  wrong ?

The TAB business plan is flawed and needs amending.

They would make far more by encouraging the wagering on harness rather than discouraging!!

They are being kept profitable by overseas racing and sports betting!

The younger ones are betting on Sports nowadays as there is no incentive to have a crack at harness racing!

Well yes, tote and fixed odds. Depends how you play to, and if you do so gradually. 

Significant, well you mentioned 2k, and for me, significant is 4 figure bets. 

 

[Davis]

2 hours ago, Gammalite said:

I think it is admirable that you and some like Ludwig for example support the looser class horses and the lesser known racing centres. Often involving some harness tradition too. like the Kindergarten Stakes the other day. Also won by Allstars (for 5th year running I think.) Olivia T getting the job done.

I'm glad you appreciate ALLstars too. I can see you love their work with Southcoast Arden. I do too. but wasn't gunna throw old mate Mango under the bus like you. Afterall He did do a fair bit with that horse at times lol.....  not enough to please the Brodster though... hehehe. You missed the bus on being a horse trainer mate lol... could of been on the money lol.

I see Auckland is not high on the'popular' list with many. and yes , some of the decisions like that developement disaster , have wrecked things a bit.  

AUCKLAND Needs someone like we got here in Brissy , (millionaires Garrard and Seymour) to take action by breeding incentives and breeding horses (sponsored age group racing) bringing in their mates from other fields to have a crack,  etc to prop the game up  ,  or it will be dead for all. Lots of folk live in Auckland but the entertainment factor is spread amongst other pastimes , and dollars are tight in a lot of cases.

I have even given up betting NZ trots (and am a Dour Supporter) and make a living punting on football actually. Only 2 starters per and odds way better than horses considering . and find them matches easy to pick. So guess harness racing is in trouble when supporters like myself are giving it away lol........

The horse needs to go back to All Stars as he is not going as well now. Fact!

We have keen supporters of harness racing here too, the likes of Trevor Casey  who has dozens of horses with many different trainers in both the Mainland and North Island. Breckon Farms etc. Casey also breeds many horses. He must spend millions a year on the harness game so he deserves all the success he gets.

I haven't been betting lately but there is still money to be made. I prefer Group 1 races but others like punting maestro Brodie opt for Motukarara. We all do the best we can.

That's why if Southcoast Ardern owners want him to be the best he can be he needs to  return to All Stars!🤣

[mikeynz]

7 hours ago, Nowornever said:

You think you have got problems how about not being able to win $2.95

 

They use to always state what the maximum stake one could bet but I've never seen it on a bet slip for yonks but if I saw that I'd see as I good investment, at least I couldn't lose lol

[mikeynz]

9 hours ago, Doomed said:

Right then, now that it is all over can someone explain something to me. This is a serious question. I 'm not knocking the race, there are just aspects of it I can't get my head around.

The winner got $340,000, after deductions for trainer and driver.  So roughly $170,000 each for the slot holder and connections, assuming it was a 50/50 split, although since it was the hot fav if I was the connections I would probably have asked for a 70/30 split. But assuming it was 50/50 the slot holder made a $95,000 profit for their investment. About a 120% return on their investment, so good work if you can get it.

After deductions the second placegetter ended up with $106,250; $53,125 each for slot holder and connections. Slotholder only lost $21,875. Better luck next year.

Third placegetter $36,125 for each of slotholder and connections. So slot holder lost $38,875. And so it goes as we go down to the also rans where the slot holders lost about $50,000 each.

In what way does this make any sort of business sense for the slot holders? Only one of the 10 of them had any chance of showing a profit, and if this year's winning slot holder doesn't have a horse run in the first two for either of the next two years they will end up losing money overall.

It was also interesting that the All Stars didn't purchase a slot. You would have thought they had every chance of winning the race and ending up with all the winning stake. Perhaps they thought it was a bad business proposition.

For the connections of the winner and placegetters it was basically the same as racing in a $300,000 race.

As I say, I'm not a big trotting follower these days, and I wouldn't have known the race even existed if I hadn't looked on here, and I may be missing something totally, but I just don't get the business sense in all this. Why would 10 groups of people invest in a something that they were 90% guaranteed to lose money.

Did a bit of reading, seems sponsors can write off the cost of buying a slot as marketing, so what have they got to lose, apart from their money.

[Gammalite]

2 hours ago, Davis said:

That's why if Southcoast Ardern owners want him to be the best he can be he needs to  return to All Stars

I think what I was trying to say is Any horse would do better at Allstars. I could give them ColtThirty One (a 60 win queensland champion who failed to win a race in 2021) and expect it would win first up.

Doesn't mean Grant Dixon is a bad trainer by any means if that happened

I think Mango has won a NZ Cup. There are far far far far far worse trainers around. He has done a sterling job with South Coast Arden (at times lol). you guys are extremely harsh . guess i'm not as cynical as most this thread.

****Imagine if ALLstars had the 'HOPE' harness team to prepare?? . with their methods and driving ability's All those horses would be winning much more regularly. Doesn't mean that HOPE"S are mug trainers though ...    Just like Mango does , they do ok. poor bloke = he Beat SELF ASSURED last month and everyone still hates him. lol...... all those other northerners must be Real Big Mugs then ?? lol.....   (tongue in cheek)

I think they would Do Better with Henry Hubert than it does now too ? and Pembrook Playboy would win them in a Row IMO. Any Owners who want THE BEST  should send their horse to ALLstars .... goes without saying. Not just SCA owners lol......

 

[Brodie]

12 hours ago, Gammalite said:

I think what I was trying to say is Any horse would do better at Allstars. I could give them ColtThirty One (a 60 win queensland champion who failed to win a race in 2021) and expect it would win first up.

Doesn't mean Grant Dixon is a bad trainer by any means if that happened

I think Mango has won a NZ Cup. There are far far far far far worse trainers around. He has done a sterling job with South Coast Arden (at times lol). you guys are extremely harsh . guess i'm not as cynical as most this thread.

****Imagine if ALLstars had the 'HOPE' harness team to prepare?? . with their methods and driving ability's All those horses would be winning much more regularly. Doesn't mean that HOPE"S are mug trainers though ...    Just like Mango does , they do ok. poor bloke = he Beat SELF ASSURED last month and everyone still hates him. lol...... all those other northerners must be Real Big Mugs then ?? lol.....   (tongue in cheek)

I think they would Do Better with Henry Hubert than it does now too ? and Pembrook Playboy would win them in a Row IMO. Any Owners who want THE BEST  should send their horse to ALLstars .... goes without saying. Not just SCA owners lol......

 

So the question needs to be asked?

What are the AllStars doing differently that can improve a horse even trained by the a premiership winning trainers the Dunns?.

 

[Davis]

2 hours ago, Brodie said:

So the question needs to be asked?

What are the AllStars doing differently that can improve a horse even trained by the a premiership winning trainers the Dunns?.

 

The class of horse they have would be the main reason mate. Self Assured, Spankem,  if Southcoast Ardern worked with horses like that he would get fitter and faster. It's natural. Purdon also has that straight 1000m track which must help too.  Few trainers have a track like that. Dunns could do that at the beach but I don't think it would be quite the same? There's also the driver. I'm not knocking Brent Mangos, but Natalie Rasmussen is a far better driver than him and horses run for her. That's a few reasons mates and there are probably more. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Davis

[Brodie]

2 hours ago, Davis said:

The class of horse they have would be the main reason mate. Self Assured, Spankem,  if Southcoast Ardern worked with horses like that he would get fitter and faster. It's natural. Purdon also has that straight 1000m track which must help too.  Few trainers have a track like that. Dunns could do that at the beach but I don't think it would be quite the same? There's also the driver. I'm not knocking Brent Mangos, but Natalie Rasmussen is a far better driver than him and horses run for her. That's a few reasons mates and there are probably more. 

Gamma was stating that the Allstars would improve the Dunn beach trained horses as well!

It can not be just a straight track!

Is is different feed, different work or different supplements and remedies?

[Gammalite]

5 hours ago, Brodie said:

So the question needs to be asked?

What are the AllStars doing differently that can improve a horse even trained by the a premiership winning trainers the Dunns?.

 

Question needs to be asked along those lines then ??  How did Sundees Son break the NZ record by 4 around seconds , bringing it's Diamond Dunn stablemate along with it for 2nd placing ( in the Dominion gobsmacking handicap last Nov) 

same arguement ?????

Because both Mobs are SEASONED , PROFESSIONAL, Been doing it for Decades , Learnt from the Families great heritage's, (Nat's dad was a fine horseman too) , great support staff, wealthy owners , etc etc etc ...

Do you need some more reasons  ?  That's about 1/2 dozen so far ......lol...

Hope that helps answers your question.

[Brodie]

24 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Question needs to be asked along those lines then ??  How did Sundees Son break the NZ record by 4 around seconds , bringing it's Diamond Dunn stablemate along with it for 2nd placing ( in the Dominion gobsmacking handicap last Nov) 

same arguement ?????

Because both Mobs are SEASONED , PROFESSIONAL, Been doing it for Decades , Learnt from the Families great heritage's, (Nat's dad was a fine horseman too) , great support staff, wealthy owners , etc etc etc ...

Do you need some more reasons  ?  That's about 1/2 dozen so far ......lol...

Hope that helps answers your question.

Not really Gamma!

Grant Payne and Blair Orange sorked for Allstars for many years!

Are you saying that they are not bright enough to pick up all the special ingredients to be a top stable?

[Gammalite]

31 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Not really Gamma!

Grant Payne and Blair Orange sorked for Allstars for many years!

Are you saying that they are not bright enough to pick up all the special ingredients to be a top stable?

Possibly ,,,,,,,,, either you have it or you don't.  (was nice Blair got himself a NZ Cup when had the chance not long ago, good on him)  Blair not a trainer though.

Scott Phelan in the same boat as Payne....  wannabe Group 1 trainer/ driver

Barry Purdon used to win stacks of races as well. Has had competitive horses and some of the best racing at times like Christopher Vance , Chokin , Holmes DG so why isn't he still winning. Lot's of Miracle Miles. You guys don't mention him much as are based South Island , but why isn't he winning ??? (after basing Marks horses at Clevedon on northern trips, is sure to have lots of advice ????? )

My thought is because Phelan (Has he ever won a group 1? ) is NOT in the same league as Mark , Nat and/or Tony Herlihy . So Barry Purdon's stable has gone quiet accordingly. Zac's driving fair but not exceptional.

You have the 2 near BEST in the world (with results to prove it) Mark from NZ and Nat from Oz .  LAP IT UP mate ... no good grizzling about it and crying foul. achieves nothing. just makes you more grumpy lol.......

[Brodie]

28 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Possibly ,,,,,,,,, either you have it or you don't.  (was nice Blair got himself a NZ Cup when had the chance not long ago, good on him)  Blair not a trainer though.

Scott Phelan in the same boat as Payne....  wannabe Group 1 trainer/ driver

Barry Purdon used to win stacks of races as well. Has had competitive horses and some of the best racing at times like Christopher Vance , Chokin , Holmes DG so why isn't he still winning. Lot's of Miracle Miles. You guys don't mention him much as are based South Island , but why isn't he winning ??? (after basing Marks horses at Clevedon on northern trips, is sure to have lots of advice ????? )

My thought is because Phelan (Has he ever won a group 1? ) is NOT in the same league as Mark , Nat and/or Tony Herlihy . So Barry Purdon's stable has gone quiet accordingly. Zac's driving fair but not exceptional.

You have the 2 near BEST in the world (with results to prove it) Mark from NZ and Nat from Oz .  LAP IT UP mate ... no good grizzling about it and crying foul. achieves nothing. just makes you more grumpy lol.......

 

[Brodie]

30 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Possibly ,,,,,,,,, either you have it or you don't.  (was nice Blair got himself a NZ Cup when had the chance not long ago, good on him)  Blair not a trainer though.

Scott Phelan in the same boat as Payne....  wannabe Group 1 trainer/ driver

Barry Purdon used to win stacks of races as well. Has had competitive horses and some of the best racing at times like Christopher Vance , Chokin , Holmes DG so why isn't he still winning. Lot's of Miracle Miles. You guys don't mention him much as are based South Island , but why isn't he winning ??? (after basing Marks horses at Clevedon on northern trips, is sure to have lots of advice ????? )

My thought is because Phelan (Has he ever won a group 1? ) is NOT in the same league as Mark , Nat and/or Tony Herlihy . So Barry Purdon's stable has gone quiet accordingly. Zac's driving fair but not exceptional.

You have the 2 near BEST in the world (with results to prove it) Mark from NZ and Nat from Oz .  LAP IT UP mate ... no good grizzling about it and crying foul. achieves nothing. just makes you more grumpy lol.......

Blair actually trained with Ken Barron but didnt make any difference!

[Rangatira]

On 14/04/2022 at 9:52 PM, Brodie said:

What I would say is Southwind Ardern  has gone back to the horse it was before the AllStars took over the training before the Cup carnival. 

Not sure how it could go backwards so much?????

Gotta get the fuel right.

[Rangatira]

On 14/04/2022 at 10:21 PM, Brodie said:

The Ozzie horse went phenomenal and is certainly a rising star by the look of it.

Certainly be hard to beat in one of those Young at Heart 6yo+ goes

[Rangatira]

On 15/04/2022 at 11:53 AM, MarkyMark said:

You can still bet fixed odds. I have been able to place significant bets through both agency and self service

Probably not allowed to be while working behind the bar.

[Rangatira]

On 15/04/2022 at 12:01 PM, mikeynz said:

That's where a outfit like Betfair is good, betting against others, some of the head to head pools are massive and they are just the middle man.

Maybe this is another option for the TAB to explore.

They would be a very greedy middle man.

[Davis]

2 hours ago, Brodie said:

Not really Gamma!

Grant Payne and Blair Orange sorked for Allstars for many years!

Are you saying that they are not bright enough to pick up all the special ingredients to be a top stable?

Blair Orange is a strange one. When he left All Stars with the backing of Mark I thought he was going into a training partnership with K. Barron. That has never happened although he drives for the stable. K. Barron doesn't have many good horses lately and wins rare. What happened to the partnership mate?