
Nowornever
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Everything posted by Nowornever
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Mot is pretty sheltered in behind that hill so should be ok.
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Well it does not take a lot of early money to move a market these days but the main reason is the opening price was wrong, so naturally the market will gravitate towards the correct price once the public start betting. Bookies also get an advantage early as most of these markets opened at 135% a couple of the bigger fields with the emergencies even opened at 155 - 165% so yes they are pretty average with their opening odds sometimes.
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Maybe they are working on the theory that terminals are the only option for restricted punters since they stopped them betting on account and also overseas. Terminals are probably quite well frequented by a lot of these banned people. Pretty sure I saw Brodie down the local last week.
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Oh absolutely let’s scrap those awful big fields and go all-in on 8-horse processions where everyone gets a pat on the back and a ribbon for participation. Because clearly, what punters really crave is less value, fewer betting options, and $1.30 favourites jogging home in single-file. Forget turnover, forget trifectas that actually pay more than a loaf of bread, and forget any kind of liquidity in the pools. Who needs proper markets or real competition when we can stage glorified trials with field sizes so small you need binoculars just to spot a quinella? And yes — we should absolutely ensure no horse finishes with a "0" next to its name. Maybe we can throw in appearance money, a warm cocoa, and a voucher for emotional support. Because clearly the goal here isn’t competitive sport or sustainable wagering — it’s morale preservation for slow horses. Let’s also ignore the well-established fact that larger fields = more turnover = more stake money = more sustainability. Truth is the betting public doesn’t tune in for soft draws and walkovers. They want depth and a chance to find value all of which come from, you guessed it, bigger fields. So sure, we could run two days of cuddly 8-horse fields where everyone finishes 4th or better… or we could accept that racing is a competitive sport, not a community raffle. Some horses will finish last. That’s the game. But punters will still bet — and when they do, the industry survives. If what you say is the best option for harness racing, why is it that all the owners trainers absolutely flock to meetings like these and punters open their wallets to create the bigger pools. Actually the complete opposite! Give him a BK Dawn at $5.00 a place at Mot and Brodie would have been straight in to take the bookies to the cleaners back in the days when he could get on.
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The main two at value I had a nibble on were Amendment at 10s and the horse Blair Orange is driving in the first. I see that starting shorter on the day the way it ran home last start. Heavens Mark I think will start shorter than 8.50. Plenty of overs on horses paying 20+ too many to name.
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How about those fields for Sunday at Motukarara. Dive in Brodie there will be value everywhere. Can not see them pricing those fields accurately at all.
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Half the trick of backing a winner is knowing driver intent. Half the drivers just go round with the intention of "we will see how we go" Quite a few just follow the one in front until the home turn without even thinking about trying to steer their horse into a winning position.
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Menangle a track I will not have a bet on. The lack of a passing lane is a real travesty. Hard to get confident there with such a leader dominated track. The form is all over the place. One day they go good the next start they go terrible. Cya Art winning at 100 is pretty typical of the form on that track.
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Why don't they run a betting competition on betcha/entain on a thursday/friday night with a $200 buy in that would create some interest. Could run a leader board and have these guys compete against all the other punters. That would be more interesting than watching them throw darts at the racebook and waffle on like they do.
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You are right I couldn't have a bet on those fields tonight. Absolutely woeful exotic pools.
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These figures do include exotics right?
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Updated odds but not sure if it is in real time or every 5mins or something else.
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Yes I think it is probably around 60-70% tops Pools in the first few races at most meetings are terrible but pick up as the meeting goes on.
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They used to post a lot more info that we never get now. Even used to get the yearly average dividends for all bet types printed in the annual calendar booklet and other interesting information. Ah the good old days.
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Another Open Letter...from a NZ Racing stakeholder!
Nowornever replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
He is dead right on a lot of what he says, but good luck changing the process which seems to get more administrative every year. -
Here come the Nutters! Becks Nairn. Thanks Winnie.
Nowornever replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
She will try to stop people owning cats and dogs next because she heard one person out 5 million abused their pet. The real cruelty is her weaponizing a couple of sad cases into a crusade against an entire industry. -
It does not make sense to me. Some of the big liabilities they claim on some of these horses and the price movement does not support the numbers so either they are: - Gambling on the result (Unlikely given they are so anal on managing risk) - Somehow laying off the liability somewhere. Maybe internally with their other bookmakers Ladbrokes or similar. - Not telling the truth and giving the impression you can win big with them and $100k loss is like water off a ducks back. I am going with option three at this stage.
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Half the people who bet wouldn't even know winning punters get limited and even banned if they are too good. Not sure if it is good advertising for Entain or not that article. Yes it tells people you can win more but it also tells people don't win or you get limited.
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No Brodie is mainly the place punter so no good for him.
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That describes every gambling institution in the world that takes bets on racing not only NZ
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Grass tracks starting in a month. I am getting excited 😁
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Why do they not take that on board and do something about it then? HRNZ: “Let’s grow the sport!” Also HRNZ: ignores the one idea that would actually grow the sport. From what they have come up with lately I think their big idea for ‘sustainability’ just means running more races with fewer horses for less money, and last as long as we can doing that.
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Just making it up as they go along. I have never had a survey asking what would encourage me to bet more or buy into more horses. Have they asked anyone related to the industry in betting or ownership/training apart from the purdons dunns telfers? I bet the top half a dozen stables want bigger races with bigger stakes and anyone lower in the pecking order wants more in the bottom end. Unfortunately the more powerful stables probably get priority.
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TAB will hardly notice any difference in harness turnover to a normal Thursday. On the bright side Auckland might get bigger fields.