Methven Tips

[Happy Sunrise]

This tipster will be retiring after the first race tomorrow and the TAB will be bankrupt.

Methven Insights from the Club

10 October 2020 , Punters Info

The local is counting the hours to Methven‘s biggest day of the year when all the locals get to see some of harness racing’s best horseflesh live at the Mt. Harding course on Sunday, with the features being the Alabar Methven Cup and the What The Hill Mares Trot.

So here’s the way he sees it on Methven’s big day.

Race 1 -A roughie in Art Collector who is steadily improving for Warren Stapleton to overcome a second line draw to beat stablemate Iron Woman with Caballe Beach to round off a big trifecta. Multiples - consistent Kingston Atom and Rocknroll Mama.

Race 2 - Another attempting to overcome a second line draw in Ilsa’s Son to beat likely favourite Queen of Strathfield and honest Inherent Royal. Multiples Bryan Boru (must be an Irish connection here) and beautifully bred Monaro Mako.

Race 3 - King Arthur deserves a win should be here over Cheap Cheap and Perfect Cut from a stable that always goes well here. Multiples boilover chance in local President Pat and first upper Jimmy Paul. 

Race 4 - Harrison good last time then spelled, very hard to head from Manjimup has speed with soft run and Unchanged Memory quaddie chances Doctor Steve and Talisin.

Race 5 - Good race many chances Playa La Vista who will be improving with every run over promising local in Cranbourne and likely favourite in Better Fly. Multiples - Laver and Dhauligiri.

Race 6 - Best idea here would be to ring a good spiritual medium and make contact with Nostradamus because almost every horse in the race is a chance which suggest the handicaps are spot on. But we must find one so local Sonoma Tyron to beat Idle Stuartia and Fanny Hill  for multiples Sioux Princess and Medusa.

Race 7 - Going rough here with Bettor Beintoit  who was o.k. last time from likely favourite in Pro Surfer and Hell’s Shadow. Multiples Ava Adore and Geoff’s Legacy.

Race 8 - Another even lot we like grass specialist Classy Kid to beat promising type in Buckskin and tiny local in Sisters Delight chances do not stop there and we add Standout and Boom for multiples.

Race 9 - Gee what a race will Wild Excuse try and run the favourites off their feet and who will be  sitting on the mares back? Tempo will decide everything and again the handicapper has done a good job as will not be a jog in the park for the All Stars pair again though we have to make a decision and we believe Nandolo can upset Spankem and Self Assured with Di Caprio and Tango Tara for multiples.

Race 10 - Yet another tough race with many chances Koenigsegg deserves a winning turn from Fynn Frost and brilliant Southern mare in Watch Me Now. Multiples IKnow and Nemera Franco.

Race 11 - Tough old Beyond The Horizon loves it here to have the nose in front of Mighty Flying Rocker and Franco Josiah who is all heart. Extras - Mikemaro and probable favourite in Navara.

Race 12 - Givemewhatineed who was sensational last time here to beat Magical Ideal and Mr Asia for multiples, free going Paul’s Verdict and Highland Reign.

[Happy Sunrise]

I like Sioux Princess at 8ff. Good off a stand despite the unruly and likes the grass. Always puts in and expect the same tomorrow.

And my wildcard on the tote will be Makasar Boy.

[Richie]

A couple I like at nice odds are 

R7 Bettor Believe It-Won so well last start after some nice trials  that I cant see any reason why it wont win again.

R11 Franco Josiah-Has a good motor on him and seems to be trotting well at the moment.

Others at shorter odds but due wins are

R2 Queen of Strathfield

R4 Harrison

R5 Better Fly

R6 Madam Sass-the enigma horse,if it ever trots all the way it will win.Not sure how it has been allowed to gallop so many times without having to trial satisfactorily 

[Happy Sunrise]

18 minutes ago, Richie said:

R6 Madam Sass-the enigma horse,if it ever trots all the way it will win.Not sure how it has been allowed to gallop so many times without having to trial satisfactorily 

You could never back it. When was the last time it trotted? The odds of it trotting today in an enormous field are miniscule, plus the field is very competitive.

It is paying $8FF which is  joke. It is one of the TAB's sucker horses.

[Roman]

13 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

I like Sioux Princess at 8ff. Good off a stand despite the unruly and likes the grass. Always puts in and expect the same tomorrow.

And my wildcard on the tote will be Makasar Boy.

Like it! Had best last mile 800m and 400m at its last start at addington behind My Moments Now

[Davis]

Sonoma Tyron (R7) - The mare went huge at Addington last start after missing away. She is risky from a stand and the one draw might not help her. If she steps she can win.

Buckskin (R8) - I will back the gelding for a place as not sure if it can win this race.

Prince Teka (R11)  - Forget his last start, he is not an Addington horse. Back on grass he can win this.

All Stars should quinella the Cup, but it depends on Lamb. I hope this fellow doesn't ruin another start.

Go the mighty ALL BLACKS!!

 

[Rusty]

The Gelding of the World!

Cometh the hour, cometh the Spitfire. 

Race 3 number 6. 

[Noodlum]

15 minutes ago, Rusty said:

The Gelding of the World!

Cometh the hour, cometh the Spitfire. 

Race 3 number 6. 

Bit short for me at 51's.

[Rusty]

11 minutes ago, Noodlum said:

Bit short for me at 51's.

Be a bit short at 151's. 

I just want to see this horse get up and maybe run a place one day. 

[Richie]

Grass looks shorter than when they last raced here,thank god.Last time a few drivers mentioned their horses couldn't quicken properly with the long grass

[Rangatira]

Shiffty (Race 2) i was intrigued by his run at banks so i have had a little nibble at 11 & 3.50

Edited October 10, 2020 by Rangatira

[mikeynz]

Considering the Cup was a good race,cutting the tv cover straight after for 2 greyhounds shit was pretty average,but wall to wall and profit drivers is all that matters now

[Brodie]

5 hours ago, Rusty said:

Be a bit short at 151's. 

I just want to see this horse get up and maybe run a place one day. 

In a 3 horse race it could well do, otherwise no.

Needs to be retired as just a waste of time racing a horse that can not run a place in 51 starts.

Edited October 11, 2020 by Brodie

[Mardy]

7 hours ago, Davis said:

Sonoma Tyron (R7) - The mare went huge at Addington last start after missing away. She is risky from a stand and the one draw might not help her. If she steps she can win.

Buckskin (R8) - I will back the gelding for a place as not sure if it can win this race.

Prince Teka (R11)  - Forget his last start, he is not an Addington horse. Back on grass he can win this.

All Stars should quinella the Cup, but it depends on Lamb. I hope this fellow doesn't ruin another start.

Go the mighty ALL BLACKS!!

 

Hopefully you went against your own advice with Buckskin and put a little bit on his nose too,well done.

[Guest CrossCodes]

10 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

You could never back it. When was the last time it trotted? The odds of it trotting today in an enormous field are miniscule, plus the field is very competitive.

It is paying $8FF which is  joke. It is one of the TAB's sucker horses.

You are right about this horse, how it hasn’t been stood down before today I’m not sure, the stipes seem to let certain trainers away with wayward horses while others get a red card after 1 or 2 indiscretions, surely we won’t see her for a while until it is actually competitive.

Huge run from Spankem today coming from that far back on a day when not many made ground from the tail end, but for the ‘bookmakers’ (if you can call them that) to bring the horse into $2.70 for the NZ Cup is just a joke!

[mikeynz]

12 minutes ago, CrossCodes said:

You are right about this horse, how it hasn’t been stood down before today I’m not sure, the stipes seem to let certain trainers away with wayward horses while others get a red card after 1 or 2 indiscretions, surely we won’t see her for a while until it is actually competitive.

Huge run from Spankem today coming from that far back on a day when not many made ground from the tail end, but for the ‘bookmakers’ (if you can call them that) to bring the horse into $2.70 for the NZ Cup is just a joke!

Probably be paying 8 or 9 in the actual race

[mikeynz]

1 hour ago, mikeynz said:

Probably be paying 8 or 9 in the actual race

How would you work out the cashout price for that?

[mikeynz]

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

In a 3 horse race it could well do, otherwise no.

Needs to be retired as just a waste of time racing a horse that can not run a place in 51 starts.

In a 3 horse race it is possible he could trip,fall and fail to complete the race but then you could hook a rope around his neck and drag him over the finish line by tractor😂

[Brodie]

38 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

In a 3 horse race it is possible he could trip,fall and fail to complete the race but then you could hook a rope around his neck and drag him over the finish line by tractor😂

To be fair Averos Spitfire over its past 10 starts or so has been going better than it did in its first 40 starts.

However, it is still doubtful that it will run a place in its career unless it draws 1 in a weak Forbury Park field.

Will it continue as a race horse for much longer?

 

[mikeynz]

9 minutes ago, Brodie said:

To be fair Averos Spitfire over its past 10 starts or so has been going better than it did in its first 40 starts.

However, it is still doubtful that it will run a place in its career unless it draws 1 in a weak Forbury Park field.

Will it continue as a race horse for much longer?

 

In reality if people want to race a horse they are free to do so but this one is taking time,might be a late bloomer.

[Happy Sunrise]

On 11/10/2020 at 8:35 AM, Richie said:

R6 Madam Sass-the enigma horse,if it ever trots all the way it will win.Not sure how it has been allowed to gallop so many times without having to trial satisfactorily 

 

22 hours ago, CrossCodes said:

how it hasn’t been stood down before today I’m not sure, the stipes seem to let certain trainers away with wayward horses while others get a red card after 1 or 2 indiscretions, surely we won’t see her for a while until it is actually competitive.

4 starts ago it had a warning on it's barrier record and has now graduated to another warning on her barrier record!

Will have to be stood down to trial satisfactorily next time won't it? Doesn't matter if it is at the start or during the race the horse needs to gets some manners despite its ability.

[Happy Sunrise]

Not sure how it gets a start at Oamaru with its form.

At least Majestic Rose has a 9 in its form line.

[Dougie]

27 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Not sure how it gets a start at Oamaru with its form.

At least Majestic Rose has a 9 in its form line.

P in the formline is for  "Pissing People Off" whom back this nag.

How on earth out of three trot races at Oamaru do Phil and Brad not have a horse running in any of them .... one race is a freebee junior race and they have two juniors in the stables but still no runner. All the maidens and lower grade horses might be getting ready for the central circuit. 

[the galah]

They don't seem to stand down trotters like they used to. I think they should,but they don't.

Trotters often avoid being stood down by getting a warning for starting manners one week,and then a warning for breaking during the running the next,then a warning for starting manners the next,etc,etc.  I pointed that out when i started a thread last year about the horses with names starting with "one".

Personally i think punters who bet on this horse should not blame the horse for their poor judgment if they back this horse. 

Its actually very consistent. Its lost its chance through breaking in its last 7 starts. Anyone who has backed it must know the likely outcome.  

[Davis]

7 hours ago, the galah said:

They don't seem to stand down trotters like they used to. I think they should,but they don't.

Trotters often avoid being stood down by getting a warning for starting manners one week,and then a warning for breaking during the running the next,then a warning for starting manners the next,etc,etc.  I pointed that out when i started a thread last year about the horses with names starting with "one".

Personally i think punters who bet on this horse should not blame the horse for their poor judgment if they back this horse. 

Its actually very consistent. Its lost its chance through breaking in its last 7 starts. Anyone who has backed it must know the likely outcome.  

I agree. And if the horse is required to trial once it is easy to get a clearance. All the trainer has to do is enter it in a weak trial field, say at the Mot or Geraldine. The horse usually does everything right in this situation, gains a clearance. Next time at the races deja vu.

I don't understand how Madam Sass got a start at Oamaru ahead of Rachmaninov who is on the ballot but has far better form. Head scratcher that one?