Weasel

A messy business... I would never buy a horse without being certain that it had passed a vet test. Was 'proof of soundness' offered to the purchaser?

amaaazing that Rogie never said how special she was/is before the race! If history is anything to go by, Sure Bet will be headed for superstardom in a heartbeat...like Ferrando

great tipping ftf. But Tommy Tomtom can learn nuffink from you (or me). But hush...what's that sound I hear on the breeze? It's the Tomster his-self cranking up the laptop to send us an epistle with his reasons why Destiny One won .(don't tell me..it was FIT and/or dropping back in grade LOLOL

is that a typo Wally? were you begging together or begging to get her?

thanks for pointing that out, Huey...crazy name for a racehorse .I'd noticed the name but didn't relaise it was a son of Tavistock. ..I've had a quick look at its damside...grandmother Secret Truth (CAN) was by Secretariat and plenty of other staying blood there. GOOMN is now 4 and, as you say, looks like it will go ok when stepped up over longer trip and learns the game! Black Booker!

Good stuff FTF...love yer work! $5 place is good picking, mate That's why I set up this thread...for people to share their value BODs ...now let's all stand by and wait for Tommy Tank to post on here the reason(s) why Divine Duke won by plenty (he cant say it's dropping in grade, but will prob tell us it's FIT, with an expletive or twelve thrown in. Sigh.)

Well done barryb and FTF ...i'll check em out! You two are not afraid to post in advance and cop the consequences good or bad! Thanks for the info ..(.I wonder if TomTomTurnaround has worked out yet that this thread is about spotting decent value bets BEFORE the result is known!?)

Speaking of the subject of this thread... here's my BOD for Tauranga today... (note Thomass posted hours before the event) RACE 6 NO 7 IRONBARK FF $11 AND $3.30 (at time of posting. I think it highly unlikely my post will attract sufficient $$ to reduce the odds, and may in fact do the opposite!!) Ironbark showed promise last winter, placing 2nd then winning its 2nd start (on a Heavy track). Didn't progress on good tracks in Nov/Dec and clearly prefers wet tracks. Has had three starts this time in, all over 1200m but hasn't fired .. I don't know why. Stepping up to 1400m today. I note that this is its first start right-handed; 2kg off from an in-form apprentice (Jasmine Fawcett) and handily drawn... likes to run handy, so unless they have declared a change of tactics I expect a decent run for my money.

Not significantly ..slightly down on black type performers and no 'superstar' 3yos here or in Australia getting headlines (cf 2016/17 season: exactly same number of individual winners (40) of 72 races: total stakes within $20k of season just ended ie about $1.7m But still extremely good overall stats for a relatively young sire - Versatile, better as they get older, strong and tough. Waiting for the 3yo fillies to win some Classics !!

I can hear it now: Cue static and cultured voice in semi-muffled tone: "This is the BBC World Service..." LOLOL

Oh Tommy Tommy Thomass You are SO clever validating after the event the picks posted on Saturday by my weasely-self and Bazz before the event. Given your wise, self-loving, self-praising and all-knowing nature, a cupla questions come to mind (no doubt you can and will answer them!): Why didn't you tip Tommyra to win? Did Deluxe Edition have 'superior form'? And if it was so superior, how come it started at 25-1?

ANOTHER TOP PERFORMANCE ... TAVISTOCK 2017-18 SEASON NZ Tavistock 91 566 40 67 129 3 5 $1,712,229 Individual Winners: 40 (from 91 starters) approx. 44% winners to starters in NZ this season Races Won: 67 (SR: 8:44) Distance range: 1200m – 3200m Geographic range: Ruakaka to Invercargill, New Plymouth to Gisborne; no West Coast Sth Isl winners! Nth Island wins: 58 Sth Island wins: 9 Winningest Distances: · Sprint: 1200-1400m: 26 of 67 (10 +16 respectively) · Mile:1600m (incl 1550+): 22 of 67 · Stayers (2000m+): 19 of 67 Shortest Winning Distance: 1200m Longest Winning Distance: 3200m (NZ Cup) Track Conditions: from Good 2 (Woodville, Jan 25) to Heavy 11 (several) · Good: 16 · Dead: 25 · Slow: 12 · Heavy: 14 Top 3 Performers: Gobstopper, Hiflyer, Travimyfriend Outcrosses: 30 (ie different damsires) Most successful outcross: by Tavistock from Stravinsky mares (11 wins from 6 horses) Best sprinter-miler: Hiflyer (4 wins, incl 2 x Gp 3) Best stayer: Gobstopper (3 wins, incl NZ Cup, Gp 3) Males v females: 37 wins from males; 30 wins from females POINTS OF INTEREST · More wins from sprinters than milers or stayers this season. · Wins on all kinds of tracks and all track conditions and over all distances ...AGAIN · No Group 1 or Group 2 wins in NZ 2017-18 season but still 4th on overall stakes won · 0 x wins by 2yos in NZ (from only 3 starters - one of which won recently in Australia ...Tavisan) · 9 x wins by 3yos from 19 starters (none of them won more than one race) · 23 x wins by 4yos · 24 x wins by 5yos · 11 wins by 6yos

I heard Nature Strip ran the last 600m in 33.27 yesterday on a Soft track !True?

I'm pretty sure Battle Heights won over 1150 at Te Awamutu quite late in his career (?) and carrying an enormous weight. Interestingly, another descendant from that family won in Singapore last Friday night - Bringer of War, (bred by the Ellises) - by Burgundy from the Keeper mare Eclectic Heights (who is a great-great-granddaughter of Wuthering Heights ..something like that anyway!)

well spotted Hesi..not a single race performance came to mind that had the WOW factor, except by a certain mare who didn't race in NZ! If I had to name one, I'd say Ladies First winning the Auckland Cup was outstanding after being wide for so much of the race; but the 3yo crop were not brilliant with the possible exception of Dijon Bleu, who then got injured and didn't race again. The Kiwi 3yos that chased glory in the autumn in Australia (Embellish etc) didn't do the job. Spring is just around the corner!

without too much thought, here goes (and in no particular order): I prefer to outline highlights Sam Collett ...132 wins from an extraordinary number of rides..about 1175 ...and not a single suspension all season poor Gingernuts ...we will never know how he would've measured up against the bleedin' Aussies and imports Aaron Kuru's horsemanship, winning on a horse that actually fell Cambridge bloodstock consultant Michael Wallace and Justify, Triple Crown winner Announcement of 3 all-weather tracks to be built ..and soon! Sale of Cambridge Stud Dominance of Savabeel (again) Dominance of David Ellis at Karaka and Te Akau in major 2yo/3yo black type races Sam Weatherley to Aussie ... and instant success Donna Logan to Singapore

by Monday I expect he will have found both Magnanimous Man and Deluxe Edition among a veritable treasure trove of 'value bets'

From memory, Tim also trained and owned Battle Heights siblings, including: Arctic Heights (by Arctic Explorer) - won a McGregor Grant Steeplechase Monty (Sovereign Edition?? or Gold Sovereign) -an Opn Hcpper who ran 2nd in a Great Northern 'Chase and I think placed in an Akld or Wgtn Cup

a couple more from me R2 Rosehill THE MACALLAN $4.80 ...ex-Kiwi looks a progressive type, now with Waller, good 3rd Oz debut, J Mac aboard R10 Rotorua VALANTE $11 and DELUXE EDITION ($35) - two Tavistocks that handle bad ground (!!) both with 3kg off. I'm looking forward to hearing George call it DULUX EDITION (again, LOL)

The intention here is for people to post some decent value bets for the day. That means TODAY .. and it means BEFORE THE RACE. I fear a certain person whose name begins with T will use it as a place to post female BODs wearing not very much clothing, but that's a risk I have to take. I'll start: Rotorua R2 RAAJ ...not the safest jumper but won here on this day last year and at $35-1 FO is worth a modest speculator each way.

As always the Aussie racing progs show us how to do it. Good analysis, and a bit of banter that doesn't get out of hand cf ego-driven humour; in-jokes; talking/laughing over the top of one another; and mumbly-stumbyl-bumbly delivery.

thanks for the pic, Thomass ..I guess lying in the sand like that would make you hot ... yes it's a 'free world', but the problem here is that when I click on that thread I am expecting to read a range of 'selections' at odds of 10-1+ ..not all your tripe. Maybe CS can establish an entire section just for you and your favourite subject matter , I'd read it, from time to time, promise! if only for the pics you post.

I find this endless nonsene between Thomass and others irrelevant to the thread's title. Any chance one of you wonderful administrators might deal to it by placing it somewhere else ... so the children can play in their sandpit without taking the rest of us along for a ride we don't want?

yeh, Matthew what's the subscription special ...and why not make an even more special special for subscribers to this excellent forum, already famous for its high class, well-informed comments (apart from Thomas, of course)

YCongrats to Sam on a tremendous achievement. In my very unofficial book she is BIF (back in form) after a couple of months of very average stats (esp strike rate) and some very ordinary rides (horse and rider). She is now getting horses home in tight finishes again and riding well tactically. Is it just good luck? I don't think so, though luck in running is a factor. When you consider the (nearly ) 1200 race rides and not one suspension in over a year that;s something to be very proud of.