Hayden Cullen learnt well!

[Gammalite]

9 minutes ago, Davis said:

Who trains Luke John in Australia? He is a good horse and should win if he has settled in OK?

Apologies , yes i tangled a bit earlier , and meant to say Anthony Butt has the 'main' opponent tonight in Platinum Stride.

Nathan Purdon trains LUKE JOHN and has Jason Lee engaged to drive , an incredibly talented driver (45 wins from 200 drives this year) and should be winning.

Nathan Purdon will one day , be a leading force in Australia training. He was a fair driver too in his day , had a two  month campaign in QLD with Triton horses one year not long ago,  and won every second day . about 30 wins. Triton now gone to America. 

If Nathan gets that continual flow of kiwi horses like Spellbound and Luke John he will be BIG TIME TRAINER.  McCarthy (NSW) and Hall's in WA have won all the big ones picking up ex-pat kiwi's, and of course TIGER TARA winning Interdom for Kevin Pizzuto too, along with a stack of races. Kiwi's always welcome in Oz. !!! 

[Davis]

58 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Apologies , yes i tangled a bit earlier , and meant to say Anthony Butt has the 'main' opponent tonight in Platinum Stride.

Nathan Purdon trains LUKE JOHN and has Jason Lee engaged to drive , an incredibly talented driver (45 wins from 200 drives this year) and should be winning.

Nathan Purdon will one day , be a leading force in Australia training. He was a fair driver too in his day , had a two  month campaign in QLD with Triton horses one year not long ago,  and won every second day . about 30 wins. Triton now gone to America. 

If Nathan gets that continual flow of kiwi horses like Spellbound and Luke John he will be BIG TIME TRAINER.  McCarthy (NSW) and Hall's in WA have won all the big ones picking up ex-pat kiwi's, and of course TIGER TARA winning Interdom for Kevin Pizzuto too, along with a stack of races. Kiwi's always welcome in Oz. !!! 

Thanks. I think it was a wise move by young Nathan Purdon to move to Victoria. He should get a steady stream of horses from NZ to train. Sadly, horses like Spellbound and Luke John are not competitive here due to our hopeless rating system but both will win plenty in Victoria. Good luck to any owner who sends their horse to N. Purdon.

Edited May 18, 2021 by Davis
spelling errors

[Harewood]

5 hours ago, Davis said:

Thanks. I think it was a wise move by young Nathan Purdon to move to Victoria. He should get a steady stream of horses from NZ to train. Sadly, horses like Spellbound and Luke John are not competitive here due to our hopeless rating system but both will win plenty in Victoria. Good luck to any owner who sends their horse to N. Purdon.

Yes good luck to N Purdon and I wish him well. There are vacancies in Vic training now Emma Stewart has taken a step back along with several other trainers moving or doing the same. Im sure he will pick up ex nz horses and may even end up with a few of his dads clients well bred ones. 

I disagree thou that Luke John wasnt competative in NZ He only had 18 starts for 3 wins and 6 placings so had a 50% strike rate in the first three, Many of his later races have been against the top 3 yr olds ie Krug. It is no disgrace being placed to him. If he had raced thru the grades Im sure he would have won more and still been competative especially as he got older and matured. Tonight he is only racing in a $7000 race so is a big step down on his previous runs. He should win easily if he is going to become a very good horse in Aus as many ex pats do. Time will tell if he steps up or continues to race for minor stakes as he could have done in NZ. Will follow with interest.

[Gammalite]

17 hours ago, Harewood said:

Tonight he is only racing in a $7000 race so is a big step down on his previous runs. He should win easily if he is going to become a very good horse in Aus as many ex pats do. Time will tell if he steps up or continues to race for minor stakes

Well the driver (Jason Lee) got a bit carried away , and tried to loop the small field , with a first-up horse, a lap out, so battled into third place. pretty ordinary drive. but LUKE JOHN tried hard. should of just made one run at them, when first up. asked a bit much.

The winner , with a waaaaay better kiwi driver , Mr Anthony Butt , strolling along in front and clinging on. PLATINUM STRIDE now win number 44 for Ant's and fiancee' Sonya Smith training partnership , this year. (from just 128 starters !!) A fantastic strike rate !!!   tha'ts better than a win every three starts ! wow that is good.

and Anthony and Sonya also had a brilliant 3rd place in the Miracle Mile this year, with WOLF STRIDE. A fabulous effort behind the best 2 horses in Australia from the McCarthy stable,  King of Swing and Expensive Ego .

 

[the galah]

On 18/05/2021 at 11:41 AM, Gammalite said:

 

Just looking at Addington today, without Cullens  / Dunns/ and Dalgety and  just Pitiful. are they barred from midweeks or something? who would possibly bet on any of these horses today? no wonder trots are in decline . Cha cha B 2 with wins from 40 starts only in-form horse racing today? Oh my goodness. 

Pitiful is a very derogatory word to describe the grass roots of harness racing. Those fields yesterday were little different from the quality you normally see in many of those races held at grass tracks in the south island,just they didn't have as many starters.

if you think you can only have a worthwhile meeting if the all stars,dunn or dalgety are there, then your mistaken.Surely you must know that. Our top drivers were there anyway.

I'm sure those who were successful had just as good a background stories to how achieving the win came to be,and in all likelihood the wins meant just as much ,if not more to connections than many premier night victories do.

If you wonder who bets on them,well i can tell you those who know the form do. I would much rather spend more on those races than on many of the fields they have on premier night. in fact i do.I believe brodie has a similar view.

Also if you know the form it makes sense to invest on the midweek meetings,as there is often a greater difference in the abilities of the horses in some of those races, than there is in those even races on premier night where you have to factor in team driving.

If you believe quality is the only factor which drives punter support then you are wrong. For example,if you ran the premier meeting on a tuesday afternoon,and ran yesterdays meeting in a premier night time slot,then the prime time would receive the best punter support,irrespective of the horses ability levels that were competing.. 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by the galah

[Gammalite]

4 minutes ago, the galah said:

Pitiful is a very derogatory word to describe the grass roots of harness racing. Those fields yesterday were little different from the quality you normally see in many of those races held at grass tracks in the south island,just they didn't have as many starters.

if you think you can only have a worthwhile meeting if the all stars,dunn or dalgety are there, then your mistaken.Surely you must know that. Our top drivers were there anyway.

I'm sure those who were successful had just as good a background stories to how achieving the win came to be,and in all likelihood the wins meant just as much ,if not more to connections than many premier night victories do.

If you wonder who bets on them,well i can tell you those who know the form do. I would much rather spend more on those races than on many of the fields they have on premier night. in fact i do.I believe brodie has a similar view.

Also if you know the form it makes sense to invest on the midweek meetings,as there is often a greater difference in the abilities of the horses in some of those races, than there is in those even races on premier night where you have to factor in team driving.

If you believe quality is the only factor which drives punter support then you are wrong. For example,if you ran the premier meeting on a tuesday afternoon,and ran yesterdays meeting in a premier night time slot,then the prime time would receive the best punter support.. 

 

Very Noble of you Galah and could be accurate. 

I find that hard to believe personally, you can make money as a punter on horses like that meeting. (I spose Cha Cha B nearly won, but wow !! seriously??  could you back it ? even with Blair on ?  what a risk.!!!!

Brodie says backs loose class horses including maidens. hahaha not many winners in a maiden field ??

Waaaaaaay better fields and bets on Friday at Addington and Auckland. (I gave up grass as well lol......)

Very Easy to make money on Good horses !!!!!!!!! and very easy to lose it on slow ones ?? you betcha, like that lot yesterday. and if you want to 'Risk' money bets , I say Might as well lose it ON A GOOD HORSE getting beat narrowly, than a BAD (slow) horse that doesn't win very often. Go Nat Friday !!! again??  you betcha....

[Brodie]

39 minutes ago, the galah said:

Pitiful is a very derogatory word to describe the grass roots of harness racing. Those fields yesterday were little different from the quality you normally see in many of those races held at grass tracks in the south island,just they didn't have as many starters.

if you think you can only have a worthwhile meeting if the all stars,dunn or dalgety are there, then your mistaken.Surely you must know that. Our top drivers were there anyway.

I'm sure those who were successful had just as good a background stories to how achieving the win came to be,and in all likelihood the wins meant just as much ,if not more to connections than many premier night victories do.

If you wonder who bets on them,well i can tell you those who know the form do. I would much rather spend more on those races than on many of the fields they have on premier night. in fact i do.I believe brodie has a similar view.

Also if you know the form it makes sense to invest on the midweek meetings,as there is often a greater difference in the abilities of the horses in some of those races, than there is in those even races on premier night where you have to factor in team driving.

If you believe quality is the only factor which drives punter support then you are wrong. For example,if you ran the premier meeting on a tuesday afternoon,and ran yesterdays meeting in a premier night time slot,then the prime time would receive the best punter support,irrespective of the horses ability levels that were competing.. 

 

Galah, you are totally on the money!

The fields on Friday night Premier meeting are just horrible fields for punting on!

You only have to have a look at the opening odds, they are just ridiculously short and not worth any risk when you have several paying buggerall for a place!

Serious punters will wager on looser class races and what ai can guarantee is that there is no successful winning punter in NZ that punts on Premier racing!

Give me midweek Addington anytime over Premier Friday night for opportunity!!

 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Brodie

[the galah]

1 minute ago, Gammalite said:

Very Noble of you Galah and could be accurate. 

I find that hard to believe personally, you can make money as a punter on horses like that meeting. (I spose Cha Cha B nearly won, but wow !! seriously??  could you back it ? even with Blair on ?  what a risk.!!!!

Brodie says backs loose class horses including maidens. hahaha not many winners in a maiden field ??

Waaaaaaay better fields and bets on Friday at Addington and Auckland. (I gave up grass as well lol......)

Very Easy to make money on Good horses !!!!!!!!! and very easy to lose it on slow ones ?? you betcha, like that lot yesterday. and if you want to 'Risk' money bets , I say Might as well lose it ON A GOOD HORSE getting beat narrowly, than a BAD (slow) horse that doesn't win very often. Go Nat Friday !!! again??  you betcha....

Well we approach our betting differently. Are you successful?

Deciding whether to bet/invest based on the average ability of the horses in a field, as you suggest, is not the basis for a successful betting strategy. If you are saying you bet on the higher quality because you are exposed to them more,therefore know the form better, then that would make a certain degree of  sense,and maybe thats what you mean,but that isn't what you have said.

i base my betting on assessing the abilities of each horse in comparison to the others in the same field. If i assess a slower horse(your words) is in a field that he is likely to win after comparing his form to others in the field,then surely you must see it makes more sense to back it,than back the good horse you would rather back, thats form is not as good as the other horses in the field its in..

There is no satisfaction in backing a good horse to lose as you suggest,there is only satisfaction in backing winners/placegetters whatever their natural ability.

Also its silly for a punter to say i don't like betting on horses that don't win much.

Whats relevant is how they go when you do bet on them,not their overall record.  

[Gammalite]

56 minutes ago, the galah said:

Also if you know the form it makes sense to invest on the midweek meetings,as there is often a greater difference in the abilities of the horses in some of those races, than there is in those even races on premier night where you have to factor in team driving.

Still Not convinced. No way could an average person make money punting on those fields yesterday. 

There was no winning form on the card much at all. Who wants to back Non-winners?am trying to WIN bets.?

I understand Brodie places large place bets , so might get something that way. I did Shan Noble a place in the Derby as the 4-1 for a place looked juicy. missed 3rd by 1/2 head. but was a risk against Krug I spose. that didn't pay.

team driving normally helps as What Could be better than having some others in the race Looking Out for You?? Must greatly INCREASE your bet chances being in the team? great. 

But wow! Just the thought of losing more than $20 risking on say Cha cha B , best performer yesterday in action, is hard to do (and laugh at you blokes betting on slow horses like those ?) just kidding ! lol .. I wish you good luck with any of your investments.$$$$$ 

I live off punt as only income, (mainly football , as only 2 starters !!  ) Liverpool (epl) and WesternBulldogs (Afl) were both $2.40 at the weekend , so looked STRONG chances and great odds.  I only put money on that is great chance of winning, not just hope can run somewhere, like yesterdays fields sorry. 

Love the Sunday races on grass for people out on a picnic though !! people with a few bucks each way, picking a horse name, or some pretty silks. Now that is REAL GRASS ROOTS support and betting !!!! 

47 minutes ago, the galah said:

There is no satisfaction in backing a good horse to lose as you suggest,there is only satisfaction in backing winners/placegetters whatever their natural ability.

No, no, no I didn't suggest that. I'm not on Betfair , and have never backed a horse to 'lose a race' Ever.

I meant if I backed Amazing Dream or similar (a GOOD Horse) and it got beaten by Copy That or whatever. I feel ok as bet only on Good horses I think can win. and if they don't, they usually go close and give you a run for your money anyway.

 

[Gammalite]

1 hour ago, Brodie said:

You only have to have a look at the opening odds, they are just ridiculously short and not worth any risk when you have several paying buggerall for a place!

Serious punters will wager on looser class races and what ai can guarantee is that there is no successful winning punter in NZ that punts on Premier racing!

Well I hope your guarantee is wrong and someone is winning on them.!! lol...... all going well. 

Unfortunately , odds here don't pop up until race day in advance at the trots. Never for NZ or Brisbane trots. 

so never get to see any until the day but have bets planned by then anyway. NO WAY do I ever Let a Market decide who can win a race. totally just draw and winning form ability for selections.

But Sportsbet will post early markets for 'Feature and Group races. ( the races which I love anyway) 

so had a quick check and 5 markets are open. 2 x group 'Trots' at Melton. (skip as trotters gallop and risky) and a group 3 with SPELLBOUND from NZ (won last 3 for Nathan Purdon) . also 2  x races Menangle . MUSCLE FACTORY (for McCarthy stable won 4 of last 6) and the other race, the brilliant ALTA ORLANDO (owned by Dunn's , brilliant ex-Nzer also at the leading McCarthy stable) so in a just a few minutes have a GOOD bet for you !!!!

SPELLBOUND-MUSCLE FACTORY-ALTA ORLANDO at 10-1 for the treble !!! HUGE chance. $11 will give you a hundred?   and you're supporting a few kiwi owners and horses to boot !! excellent.

What a way bettor risk , than those midweek fields

[JJ Flash]

10 hours ago, Brodie said:

Serious punters will wager on looser class races

Mere supposition on your part Brodie The turnover at Addington on Tuesday was woeful. Overseas interest on TABCORP virtually non existent.

 

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Mere supposition on your part Brodie The turnover at Addington on Tuesday was woeful. Overseas interest on TABCORP virtually non existent.

Do you have the actual figures or "mere supposition on your part"?

[JJ Flash]

4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Do you have the actual figures or "mere supposition on your part"?

I posed my question to Brodie , you know your protected love child. But , as usual your on my case. I did note the offshore ones on Tabcorp but as you are an absolute arse i wont be sharing with you but others can PM me for the numbers they recorded and they were woeful

Edited May 19, 2021 by JJ Flash

[Brodie]

8 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Well I hope your guarantee is wrong and someone is winning on them.!! lol...... all going well. 

Unfortunately , odds here don't pop up until race day in advance at the trots. Never for NZ or Brisbane trots. 

so never get to see any until the day but have bets planned by then anyway. NO WAY do I ever Let a Market decide who can win a race. totally just draw and winning form ability for selections.

But Sportsbet will post early markets for 'Feature and Group races. ( the races which I love anyway) 

so had a quick check and 5 markets are open. 2 x group 'Trots' at Melton. (skip as trotters gallop and risky) and a group 3 with SPELLBOUND from NZ (won last 3 for Nathan Purdon) . also 2  x races Menangle . MUSCLE FACTORY (for McCarthy stable won 4 of last 6) and the other race, the brilliant ALTA ORLANDO (owned by Dunn's , brilliant ex-Nzer also at the leading McCarthy stable) so in a just a few minutes have a GOOD bet for you !!!!

SPELLBOUND-MUSCLE FACTORY-ALTA ORLANDO at 10-1 for the treble !!! HUGE chance. $11 will give you a hundred?   and you're supporting a few kiwi owners and horses to boot !! excellent.

What a way bettor risk , than those midweek fields

Gamma, there is no way in hell that punters in NZ will be able to make good money long term backing horses at Premier meetings!

Firstly if you win, the TAB basically shut you down!

Secondly the odds are too short for the opportunity and thirdly there are too many race winners or horses with good abilty competing!

At the end of the day punters can wager on what they want if they are not restricted!!!

What I do know is that the NZ TAB do not want you winning money from them and only want the losing punter!

Be successful and they will chop you off at the knees, and make it mostly not worth the effort financially.

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, JJ Flash said:

I posed my question to Brodie , you know your protected love child. But , as usual your on my case. I did note the offshore ones on Tabcorp but as you are an absolute arse i wont be sharing but others can PM me for the numbers they recorded

Nothing to do with Brodie at all.  But I'm interested to know if you had the final figures to justify your "they were woeful" statement.  But you obviously don't.  So FAKE NEWS!

[JJ Flash]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Nothing to do with Brodie at all.  But I'm interested to know if you had the final figures to justify your "they were woeful" statement.  But you obviously don't.  So FAKE NEWS!

You really are thick if you cant see the point of my question and thus your regular invasion of any posts i make - Fake news - your full of shit. You have no idea of Tabcorp numbers , i did and some lesser grade races failed to get 5 k in all pools . Hope this helps  but as we all know it wont be enough

[Brodie]

10 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Mere supposition on your part Brodie The turnover at Addington on Tuesday was woeful. Overseas interest on TABCORP virtually non existent.

 

JJ, what are you on?

Do you personally know anyone that is not restricted and makes serious money backing on Premier nights consistently?

I say you dont or they would be restricted!

Fields on Tuesday were far better punting fields than fields that have 3 or 4 Cullen/ Purdon/ Rasmussen stable horses!

Different strokes as they say!

[JJ Flash]

Just now, Brodie said:

JJ, what are you on?

Do you personally know anyone that is not restricted and makes serious money backing on Premier nights consistently?

I say you dont or they would be restricted!

Fields on Tuesday were far better punting fields than fields that have 3 or 4 Cullen/ Purdon/ Rasmussen stable horses!

Different strokes as they say!

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Oh dear Brodie is restricted, probably NZTAB have been made aware of your issues and taken the right course of action by banning you . 

I know of quite a few punters that are restricted and their turnover far exceeded your snipes Wayne. 

[Brodie]

1 minute ago, JJ Flash said:

You really are thick if you cant see the point of my question and thus your regular invasion of any posts i make - Fake news - your full of shit. You have no idea of Tabcorp numbers , i did and some lesser grade races failed to get 5 k in all pools . Hope this helps  but as we all know it wont be enough

JJ, I am sure the turnover would not have been much , tote turnover is not much nowadays on most harness, but a Tuesday?

Tote turnover has dropped substantially over recent years and will continue to, unless things are changed.

 

[Brodie]

2 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Oh dear Brodie is restricted, probably NZTAB have been made aware of your issues and taken the right course of action by banning you . 

I know of quite a few punters that are restricted and their turnover far exceeded your snipes Wayne. 

Exactly my point!

Everyone should be treated fairly and how would you know my turnover?

It us not about turnover it is about the challenge of winning!

A losing punter can turnover a helluva lot JJ, as they are allowed to!

[Brodie]

25 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

You really are thick if you cant see the point of my question and thus your regular invasion of any posts i make - Fake news - your full of shit. You have no idea of Tabcorp numbers , i did and some lesser grade races failed to get 5 k in all pools . Hope this helps  but as we all know it wont be enough

JJ there are meetings on Thursday nights that have less than 5k in the win/place pools!

[the galah]

 

13 hours ago, Gammalite said:

 I say Might as well lose it ON A GOOD HORSE getting beat narrowly, than a BAD (slow) horse that doesn't win very often. 

 

Your words. I know you weren't referring to betfair and backing a horse to lose as you have suggested i may have thought.

The point is you have been saying people are more likely to make money betting on premier nights than a low grade mid week meeting.And thats what i have said is not true. 

The tab payout exactly the same % of every dollar invested on the tote at both meetings.there is no difference.

Then if betting with the bookies.Your suggesting that punters are more knowledgeable about the horses running at premier meetings,well thats true. But so are the bookies.They still set the same % when framing markets .

The reality is being a successful punter on either meeting is based on your knowledge of the form. You are more likely to get horses over the odds on the lower grade meetings,because the overall knowledge of punters on the horses running is not as great as the premier meetings.  

saying the fields were pitiful,as you did, really just meant you had little knowledge around those that were running.

[the galah]

2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

You really are thick if you cant see the point of my question and thus your regular invasion of any posts i make - Fake news - your full of shit. You have no idea of Tabcorp numbers , i did and some lesser grade races failed to get 5 k in all pools . Hope this helps  but as we all know it wont be enough

Isn't that the norm on 90% of  nz harness on those aussie tabs.A lot comes down to how much pre race exposure they get,no matter what the class of horse racing.

[Gammalite]

1 minute ago, the galah said:

 

Your words. I know you weren't referring to betfair and backing a horse to lose as you have suggested i may have thought.

The point is you have been saying people are more likely to make money betting on premier nights than a low grade mid week meeting.And thats what i have said is not true. 

The tab payout exactly the same % of every dollar invested on the tote at both meetings.there is no difference.

Then if betting with the bookies.Your suggesting that punters are more knowledgeable about the horses running at premier meetings,well thats true. But so are the bookies.They still set the same % when framing markets .

The reality is being a successful punter on either meeting is based on your knowledge of the form. You are more likely to get horses over the odds on the lower grade meetings,because the overall knowledge of punters on the horses running is not as great as the premier meetings.  

saying the fields were pitiful,as you did, really just meant you had little knowledge around those that were running.

Apologies about the pitiful fields bit offending. I should of just said that very little Winning Form exposed. Cha Cha B being one of only 4 or so last start winners. I by No means mean that NZ horses and drivers are pitiful. In fact you probably see through my posts this year, that I admire them greatly, more than most. Was even looking forward to seeing Cullen, Dunn and Dalgety runners to see the Greats in action !! 

y, the Galah and Brodie are VERY GOOD judges . I have no doubts on that from your observations and Brodies TAB exploits. Both you likely to go to ANY NZ meeting and pick the bones out of it . (and fairly accurately too) enough to get banned even lol..... a minor difference being one of you seems to enjoy the racing and one doesn't lol.... I love watching Cullens go round. always Near the placings. always give you something to watch. Is like watching a masterclass !

Instead of standard run of mill 'Midweek' races !! or 'risking' a trotter having a tango out the back of the field from those silly out-dated Standing Starts.. lol... BTW the Brisbane midweek AND even the weekend races I describe as pitiful. (To BET on) is what I mean. not the horsepeople. 

[Gammalite]

2 hours ago, Brodie said:

Do you personally know anyone that is not restricted and makes serious money backing on Premier nights consistently?

I say you dont or they would be restricted!

Fields on Tuesday were far better punting fields than fields that have 3 or 4 Cullen/ Purdon/ Rasmussen stable horses!

Different strokes as they say!

You must be Loving the new Vaccination ad's on NZ tele Brodster !! hehe they just put them on the news in Aus , with the big kiwi humour , partying angle of things . quite funny. no ad's broadcast here yet.

Personally I know about 10 blokes well at TAB's and NONE back Harness at all, and none even bet midweek gallops. They just bet on the BETTER HORSES that race at the Saturday Metro meetings (equal to betting at your Premier harness meetings) so is quite normal to BET and WIN on the best races available, with quality runners. This is quite NORMAL behaviour. (To get enjoyment and/or bet on the BEST horses and horsepeople) 

Decision: Verry Elleegant , or some midweek gallop battler should I put $ on ?? mmmmmmmmmm